Brownlow Medal 2011 (Part 1)

[premiers06]

does afl.com.au still show full matches as I need to watch a few games to do my votes properly.

edit: yeah it does. For anyone wondering

 

[TubbsFarquhar]

Carlton V Richmond
3. Marc Murphy
2. Bryce Gibbs
1. Jack Riewoldt

Geelong V St Kilda
3. Jimmy Bartel
2. Lenny Hayes
1. Corey Enright

Collingwood V Port Adelaide
3. Ben Johnson
2. Dane Swan
1. Chris Dawes

Adelaide V Hawthorn
3. Patrick Dangerfield
2. Sam Mitchell
1. Phil Davis

Brisbane V Fremantle
3. Aaron Sandilands
2. Simon Black
1. Nathan Fyfe

Essendon V Western Bulldogs
3. Jobe Watson
2. Brent Stanton
1. David Hille

Melbourne V Sydney
3. Ryan O'Keefe
2. Brent Moloney
1. Jude Bolton

West Coast V North Melbourne
3. Dean Cox
2. Andrew Swallow
1. Mark Nicoski

Leaderboard:
1. Marc Murphy 3
2. Jimmy Bartel 3
3. Ben Johnson 3
4. Patrick Dangerfield 3
5. Aaron Sandilands 3
6. Jobe Watson 3
7. Ryan O'Keefe 3
8. Dean Cox 3
9. Bryce Gibbs 2
10. Lenny Hayes 2

 

[weagles_fan]

My votes

Carlton v Richmond
3. C Judd
2. M Murphy
1. J Riewoldt

Geelong v St Kilda
3. J Bartel
2. L Hayes
1. N Dal Santo

Collingwood v Port Adelaide
3. B Johnson
2. D Swan
1. M Thomas

Adelaide v Hawthorn
3. S Mitchell
2. P Dangerfield
1. S Burgoyne

Brisbane v Fremantle
3. S Black
2. D Mundy
1. N Fyfe

Essendon v Bulldogs
3. J Watson
2. P Ryder
1. H Hocking

Melbourne v Sydney
3. B Moloney
2. R O'Keefe
1. C Sylvia

West Coast v North Melbourne
3. D Cox
2. M Nicoski
1. A Swallow

 

[premiers06]

My votes for round one after finally watching missing parts from games

Carlton vs. Richmond
3-Murphy
2-Gibbs
1-Riewoldt

Geelong vs. St. Kilda

3- Bartel
2- Hayes
1- Enright

Collingwood vs. Port Adelaide

3- Swan
2- Johnson
1- Pendlebury

Adelaide vs. Hawthorn

3- Dangerfield
2- Walker
1- Mitchell

Brisbane vs. Fremantle

3- Black
2- Sandilands
1- Fyfe

Essendon vs. Western Bulldogs

3- Watson
2- Stanton
1- Ryder

Melbourne vs. Sydney

3- Moloney
2- O'Keefe
1- Jack

West Coast vs Kangaroos
3- Cox
2- Embley
1- Swallow

 

[Narni_]

Took record of some early preseason odds, just thought i'd post a couple players whos odds have moved in and out of value (focusing on preseason favourites and big movers). All of the odds are with Sportsbet.

Swan $10 > $7
Judd $14 > $9
Mitchell $51 > $26
Watson $51 > $31
Sandilands $34 > $21
Krakeour $101 > $67


Hodge $16 > $26
Montagna $31 > $51
Murphy $51 > $67 (Most have him scoring 2-3 votes)
Swallow $51 > $101 (Possible 1 vote game)
Chapman $51 > $101

Bartel steady at $34 despite a likely 3 vote game.

 

[Pinnell]

Took record of some early preseason odds, just thought i'd post a couple players whos odds have moved in and out of value (focusing on preseason favourites and big movers). All of the odds are with Sportsbet.

Swan $10 > $7
Judd $14 > $9
Mitchell $51 > $26
Watson $51 > $31
Sandilands $34 > $21
Krakeour $101 > $67


Hodge $16 > $26
Montagna $31 > $51
Murphy $51 > $67 (Most have him scoring 2-3 votes)
Swallow $51 > $101 (Possible 1 vote game)
Chapman $51 > $101

Bartel steady at $34 despite a likely 3 vote game.[/quotee

And Gibbs still $100 despite a liklely vote getting game.

 

[mike262]

IF essendon continue to play like they played on the weekend then watson at $31 is extremely good odds. He is the stand out player at essendon (like judd)

 

[Dr Awkward]

Some bets that I took today:

J. Watson to win @ $27
A. Cooney to top WB @ $9
J. Riewoldt to win Richmond @ $7.50
P. Dangerfield to win Adelaide @ $17

What do you guys think of backing Watson to win Essendon at $2.15? I reckon he in an absolute certainty (barring injury) and should be about $1.40 but obviously $2.15 is fairly short to be taking on a futures bet and I would have to outlay something large...

 

[Octavia]

3- Judd
2- Murphy
1- Gibbs

Simpson and Riewoldt next best chances.

Judd was his usual self breaking lines, pulling free kicks, clearances and a nice goal when the game was on the line.

Just my 2 cents

Cheers

what about the goals he missed plus the constant clangers?

 

[rocketmac360]

Doing a count of my own this year:

Rd 1

Carlton vs Richmond		
CAR	Judd		3
CAR	Murphy		2
RIC	Riewoldt, J	1
		
Geelong vs St. Kilda		
GEE	Enright		3
GEE	Corey		2
STK	Hayes		1
		
Collingwood vs Port Adelaide		
COL	Swan		2.5
COL	Dawes		2.5
COL	Johnson, B	1
		
Adelaide vs Hawthorn		
ADE	Stevens, S	3
ADE	Sloane		1.5
ADE	Rutten		1.5
		
Brisbane vs Fremantle		
FRE	Fyfe		2.5
FRE	Sandilands	2.5
FRE	Broughton	1
		
Essendon vs Western Bulldogs		
ESS	Hille		2.5
ESS	Watson		2.5
ESS	Hocking		1
		
Melbourne vs Sydney		
MEL	Moloney		3
SYD	O'Keefe, R	2
SYD	Mattner		1
		
West Coast vs North Melbourne		
WCE	Cox		3
WCE	Selwood, A	1.5
NMK	Swallow, A	1.5

 

[Colson]

Some bets that I took today:

J. Watson to win @ $27
A. Cooney to top WB @ $9
J. Riewoldt to win Richmond @ $7.50
P. Dangerfield to win Adelaide @ $17

What do you guys think of backing Watson to win Essendon at $2.15? I reckon he in an absolute certainty (barring injury) and should be about $1.40 but obviously $2.15 is fairly short to be taking on a futures bet and I would have to outlay something large...

There is nothing surer that he will win esendons count. But do you really want to have alot of money tied up at just 2 bucks? There will be better odds to smash money on. Unless you have a heap laying around. Easy way to double it up

 

[Colson]

what about the goals he missed plus the constant clangers?

I agree. If he gets 3 for that game he has probably won the brownlow.

 

[blue_boys]

Votes for round 1

Carlton v Richmond
3. Judd
2. Murphy
1. Gibbs/Riewoldt

Murphy was probably best over the night but Judd stepped up when the game need to be won and with his great polling history should take the 3. Couldn't split Gibbs and Riewoldt for the 1 vote

Geelong v St Kilda
3. Bartel
2. Enright
1. Dal Santo/Hayes/Taylor

Bartel was a stand out, especially in the 2nd half when the cats made their comeback. Enright provided heaps of run throughout the game and the 1 votes could go to either of those 3.

Collingwood v Port Adelaide
3. B.Johnson
2. Swan
1. M Thomas

Johnson and Swan were the best players on the field but the umps don't give swan votes for disposals and Johnson was very good. Matty Thomas played a great game and kicked 3 so should stand out from the likes of Pendles, Dawes and Ball.

Adelaide v Hawthorn
3. Dangerfield
2. Mitchell
1. Anyone

Dangerfield dominated the second half when the game was won. Flashy player so should stand out and kicked a great goal from long range. Mitchell was probably the most consistent performer over the game. I couldn't really give a 1 votes with any confidence.

Brisbane v Fremantle
3. Black
2. Fyfe
1. Sandilands

Black and Fyfe were both stand outs but Black has an extremely good polling history and Fyfe is only new to the big time. Sandilands looks the most likely to take the 1 vote with Mundy as the closest rival.

Essendon v Bulldogs
3. Watson
2. Ryder
1. Hille/Stanton

Watson was easily the BOG. Ryder was instrumental in setting up the win both down forward and in the middle. Hille or Stanton should take the 1 vote.

Melbourne v Sydney
3. Moloney
2. O'Keefe
1. Sylvia

Moloney should have done enough to be confident that he should get the 3 votes. O'keefe was also great and ran all day (very surprised he did so well after his interrupted preseason). Sylvia plays a game that stands out with his mark, run and kick play - Grimes could take the 1 vote but unsure of his polling history

West Coast v North Melbourne
3. Cox
2. Embley
1. Swallow/Nicoski

Cox easily BOG, even though he sat in the goal square for the last quarter. Embley was very good all game and should stand out from the others. Swallow and Nicoski I couldn't split and possibly Priddis may take the vote.

 

[Halli]

Thought id bring to you guys attention the 2011 edition of Phantom Brownlow Medal.

You can run your own custom Brownlow Medals by logging in and it could be a perfect way for you all to keep track of your own Brownlow Medal counts and to come back and discuss in Brownlow week. The good thing is that the more people who get on and cast votes, it creates a consensus totalling everyones votes so will be a pretty handy tool come Brownlow night. (like here for example)

Im a real keen Brownlow Medal punter and use this thread often to see who people are taking. This week i think Jobe Watson, Dean Cox, Jimmy Bartel and Brent Maloney are lock ins for hte three votes. While Judd/Murphy will contest for three votes for Carlton, with Judd likely to get the go ahead because he is...well...he is Judd.

Watson currently $31.00 for the Brownlow. Id suggest to people to have a small wager on that because he was good last year and if the Bombers are winning games he is most likely to get his fair share of votes and we'll see his odds slashed considerably.

 

[Halli]

This is fantastic.

I started doing the same thing but just on pen and paper getting an average vote tally on what were people thoughts for the round and was going to use that as my guide. This is exactly what this is yeh?

Where and who are you getting your votes from each round? Anyone that puts a 3,2,1 up or a selected bunch of posters?

Is there any advantage of me joining your site?

Once again good work!!

I've been doing Phantom Brownlows for ages, but started doing them public the last few years. I've had great success in the past, although last year i struggled. I was just doing a 3-2-1 vote system but this year i wanted to shake it up a bit.

If there are several players who i think can poll in the votes but its tough picking them in the right order. Thats why giving them a range might help the cause. I'll normally look at about 5 players who i think will poll. If there are two hot players which im pretty sure will get the 3 and 2 votes, this means that there will be 3 other players who could poll the one vote. If there is one lock in for the 3 and 4 other guys who could get the 2 and 1 votes, by giving them a range you'll get an indication later on in the season how they have been going. Also, if you click on a players name you'll get their stats and their previous seasons brownlow history.

Hope that made a sense. As for how i choose players, i use my own knowledge from the games i watch, but for games i miss ill always check sites like BigFooty and other forum, and by reading media reviews and checking 'footballer of the year awards' like on the Sunday footy show or the Herald Sun, The Age etc. Just to get a bit of a consensus.

 

[Halli]

Oh, just wanted to say too before the people come in with their "oh your just spamming your link" type comments that i PM'd the moderator of this part of the forum and i have contributed to this forum over the last couple of years too.

I genuinely think it will help plenty of guys here who do Phantom Brownlows because its one of the more popular sections of BigFooty. Its free to join up so no issues there, its just a real handy tool and want to spread the word because if we can get thousands of people on there, it will be an unbelievable tool to use to get a consensus of who got votes for each game. There isnt anything else out there like it, that i know of.

If you dont like it, thats cool. But would definitely love to hear some feedback.

 

[Mudeo]

Oh, just wanted to say too before the people come in with their "oh your just spamming your link" type comments that i PM'd the moderator of this part of the forum and i have contributed to this forum over the last couple of years too.

I genuinely think it will help plenty of guys here who do Phantom Brownlows because its one of the more popular sections of BigFooty. Its free to join up so no issues there, its just a real handy tool and want to spread the word because if we can get thousands of people on there, it will be an unbelievable tool to use to get a consensus of who got votes for each game. There isnt anything else out there like it, that i know of.

If you dont like it, thats cool. But would definitely love to hear some feedback.

Aren't you the one from one of the betting agencys?
Joined a couple of years ago when you realised how much people were winning from this forum?
So instead of you guys (From the betting agency) doing your own count you will try and get a count from all the people that have done well over the years and adjust your odds accordingly?
I mean cmon people who uses wager when referring to a bet.

 

[Halli]

Aren't you the one from one of the betting agencys?
Joined a couple of years ago when you realised how much people were winning from this forum?
So instead of you guys (From the betting agency) doing your own count you will try and get a count from all the people that have done well over the years and adjust your odds accordingly?
I mean cmon people who uses wager when referring to a bet.

Vod Ka Nockers, that is simply not true. It's narrow minded comments like that which annoy me. The site is free to use, if people want to use it then fine, if not then no big deal. I just think it will come in extremely handy as a way for people to track their own votes and pool it together with everyone else and help us all make some cash on Brownlow night like so many did last year.

 

[Halli]

I do run lots of sites promoting bookmaker offers etc but this site is somewhat of a labour of love, I like punting on the brownlow medal and was just wanting to help people. I don't really get how "tracking" what everyone puts in is a bad thing? If it helps everyone make some money and gives people an idea of consensus, then surely it's a good thing? If you dont like it dont use it, but there will be plenty out there who will find it useful.

I presume you're the sort of person that writes in to a TV channel complaining, rather than just turning the TV over?

 

[Mudeo]

I do run lots of sites promoting bookmaker offers etc but this site is somewhat of a labour of love, I like punting on the brownlow medal and was just wanting to help people. I don't really get how "tracking" what everyone puts in is a bad thing? If it helps everyone make some money and gives people an idea of consensus, then surely it's a good thing? If you dont like it dont use it, but there will be plenty out there who will find it useful.

I presume you're the sort of person that writes in to a TV channel complaining, rather than just turning the TV over?

Nope ill just put the xbox on and play a game .
Not the point, anyway why would i sit back knowing that you are either employed by a betting agency or ratting to them with this spread sheets and lower peoples earning potential on these events. So when you are tracking these peoples votes it directly effects the odds so how is that a good thing.

thank you and bye no point replying we have covered everything Halli. Back to brownlow talk people.

 

[Halli]

Back to brownlow talk people.

Most sensible thing you have said all day

 

[Dr Awkward]

Nope ill just put the xbox on and play a game .
Not the point, anyway why would i sit back knowing that you are either employed by a betting agency or ratting to them with this spread sheets and lower peoples earning potential on these events. So when you are tracking these peoples votes it directly effects the odds so how is that a good thing.

thank you and bye no point replying we have covered everything Halli. Back to brownlow talk people.

Well did the website exist in 2010, because Halli was clearly not providing any advice to bookies then?

 

[1 Million]

The coaches votes seem interesting.

Gibbs only polled 2
Jimmy didnt poll at all (most have him locked for 3)
Scott Stevens 9/10 votes in the Crows/Hawks game
Broughton 9/10 in Freo/Lions

Could this be a worry?

http://www.afl.com.au/news/newsarticle/tabid/208/newsid/110492/default.aspx

 

[jimmyclean]

The coaches votes seem interesting.

Gibbs only polled 2
Jimmy didnt poll at all (most have him locked for 3)
Scott Stevens 9/10 votes in the Crows/Hawks game
Broughton 9/10 in Freo/Lions

Could this be a worry?

http://www.afl.com.au/news/newsarticle/tabid/208/newsid/110492/default.aspx

Last year they picked Swan, I'd say no.

 

[Mudeo]

Well did the website exist in 2010, because Halli was clearly not providing any advice to bookies then?

Why would i even say something like that if i didnt mean it?
Im only trying to help you guys out here.
Heres a link from last years thread... http://www.bigfooty.com/forum/showthread.php?t=751404&page=64 Then go on to the next page.
Tell me what you think now Dr.
Took me a while to find but he had a different one last year.

Now that im right can we only talk about the brownlow.