Brownlow Medal 2011 (Part 2)

[Dr Awkward]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2011 (Part 1)

With a handful of rounds left, and assuming there are no drastic changes I'm looking to use the above bolded as my main anchors with various combinations, mixing etc. Whats everyone's thoughts?

I have Priddis 4 ahead of Cox and I just can't see Cox getting near him. What have others got?

I also can't see Goddard winning St. Kilda. I've been generous to him and I've got him a few behind Dal Santo.

So does anyone think its a little to risky in any parts?

I have Cox ahead of Priddis actually. Cox obviously has a poor polling history but I don't think Priddis represents much value at this stage.

Boyd just ahead of Griffen for me but it's pretty close.

 

[PRoberts14]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2011 (Part 1)

This is for 2010:

http://stats.rleague.com/afl/brownlow/brownlow2010rbr.html

To get there you need to go to home page, then Brownlow Medal, then click the year you want and then click round by round to get the page above.

Hope that helps.

shit yeah mate that is pretty much it. cheers

 

[Rippo]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2011 (Part 1)

No doubt what everyone already thinks.....

Sports news first.com.au

Unless Collingwood star on-baller Dane Swan can rekindle the startling form that he crashed into 2011 with, the prestigious medal is headed back to Chris Judd’s mantle piece or his teammate Marc Murphy’s or Pies play-maker Scott Pendlebury.

Pendlebury and Judd have made appreciable pushes in recent outings to close an extensive early gap on contenders set by Murphy.

After 18 rounds and with Judd and Murphy still to contend with their second bye of the season in Round 23, Pendlebury should lead the Brownlow votes tally.

On my weekly allocation of votes from all games, generally also trying to get inside the umpire’s heads on who they will favour out of relative match performances, Pendlebury has just slipped ahead of Murphy and Judd.

Western Bulldogs first-year captain Matthew Boyd also stays in touch with the leaders but has not been as prominent in recent outings as his flying start to the season.

Big ball-winning Hawthorn link-man Sam Mitchell is ineligible to win the 2011 medal and continues to rack up votes on his incredible average of 32 touches a game.

Judd remains a $2.50 favourite with top on-line bookmakers sportsbet.com.au with Murphy $5.50 and Pendlebury $8.50.

Gold Coast champion and 2009 winner Gary Ablett is next at $14 and West Coast veteran ruckman Dean Cox and early season favourite Dane Swan at $18.

Judd, who was somewhat of a surprise winner last season to add to his 2004 win, has dominated his past few engagements with potential best-afield outings against Essendon in Round 18 and Richmond in Round 15.

The stunning Blues pack-breaker and play-maker could well have also picked up higher votes than when Murphy was at his finest over the open month of the new season.

Depending on which way umpires spread their voting among Judd and Murphy as the Blues marched out with five wins and a draw in their opening seven engagements before a Round 8 bye could ultimately decide this year’s Brownlow.

But Pendlebury has guaranteed a possible late closing on the Blues pair with his stunning mid-season run and then his past three outings when the smooth as silk follower could well have gathered successive best-afield voting allocations.

Swan’s 39-possession dominance when the Pies ruthlessly smashed North Melbourne to the tune of a record-breaking 117-points in Round 16 probably gets the top votes.

But the 23-year-old Pendlebury should get top votes for his impeccably polished Round 17 display when the Pies held off Judd and Murphy’s Blues at the MCG and again last week up on the Gold Coast to trounce the Suns by nine goals.

Pendlebury hardly wasted a disposal among his 26 possessions against the Blues and should get top votes ahead of Judd’s imposing 35 collections which included a typically hard-earned 23 contested possessions.

Pendlebury will again by among the higher votes against the Suns with his clean 34 disposals and should vie with 2009 winner and serial match dominator Gary Ablett.

Despite plenty of debate surrounding Ablett’s chances to head this year’s count from a struggling side, with the Suns only having won three games and possibly only notching another victory or two at best, the stunning on-baller and clearances master will be hampered with lower allocations rather than the important three’s.

Kim HAGDORN’S Brownlow Watch after Round 18
Scott PENDLEBURY (Collingwood) 23 votes
Marc MURPHY (Carlton) 22 votes
Matthew BOYD (Western Bulldogs) 19 votes

Chris JUDD (Carlton), Sam MITCHELL (Hawthorn) 18 votes
Dane SWAN (Collingwood) 17 votes
Brent MOLONEY (Melbourne) 15 votes
Ryan O’KEEFE (Sydney) 14 votes

Nick DAL SANTO (St Kilda), Daniel WELLS (North Melbourne) 13 votes
Gary ABLETT (Gold Coast), Brendon Goddard (St Kilda), Dean COX (West Coast), Matthew Pavlich (Fremantle), Ryan GRIFFEN (Western Bulldogs) 12 votes

Scott THOMPSON (Adelaide), James KELLY (Geelong), Nat FYFE (Fremantle), Andrew Embley (West Coast) 11 votes
Jobe WATSON (Essendon) 10 votes

 

[laam]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2011 (Part 1)

Have gotten slack and not posted in here for a few weeks, now in the buisness end so will post as much as I can.

My current leaderboard

22 Pendlebury
22 Mitchell
19 Murphy
18 Judd
18 Priddis
15 Moloney
15 Boyd
15 Dal Santo

Team Leaders
Adelaide
Thompson 12 (7 clear of dangerfield)

Brisbane
Black 12 (8 clear of adcock)

Carlton
Murphy 19 (1 clear of judd)

Collingwood
Pendlebury 22 (10 clear of swan and thomas)

Essendon
Watson 14 (9 clear of zaharakis)

Fremantle
Pavlich 10 (1 clear of fyfe and mundy)

Geelong
Selwood 14 (7 clear of pods, christensen and bartel)

Gold Coast
Ablett 12 ( 6 clear of rischitelli

Hawthorn
Mitchell 22 (9 clear of franklin)

Melbourne
Moloney 15 (9 clear of sylvia)

North Melbourne
Swallow 11 (1 clear of goldstein)

Port Adelaide
Westoff, Schulz, Boak 3

Richmond
Martin, Cotchin 9

St Kilda
Dal Santo 15 (6 clear of montagna and goddard)

Sydney
Goodes 13 (2 clear of okeefe and bolton)

West Coast
Priddis 18 ( 5 clear of cox)

Western Bulldogs
Boyd 15 (4 clear of griffen)

Thinking now might be a good time to get on pendles to win and top collingwood, and black is still good odds to top brisbane

 

[Blueboy3]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2011 (Part 1)

With a handful of rounds left, and assuming there are no drastic changes I'm looking to use the above bolded as my main anchors with various combinations, mixing etc. Whats everyone's thoughts?

I have Priddis 4 ahead of Cox and I just can't see Cox getting near him. What have others got?

I also can't see Goddard winning St. Kilda. I've been generous to him and I've got him a few behind Dal Santo.

So does anyone think its a little to risky in any parts?

Ill be using the same, as for West Coast, i have Priddis up by 5. St kilda i have Dal Santo on 13, 2 ahead of Goddard and Montagna, having said that i got St Kilda drastically wrong last year. Overpolling Montagna and underpolling Hayes so i probably wont use them at all.

 

[humdogg]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2011 (Part 1)

Does anyone recall how far ahead of the browlow they opened the team leaders last year at Tab?

would like to see this just for kicks as well.

 

[chico]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2011 (Part 1)

just going through the thread and current leaderboards, i appear to be the only one with pendlebury 4 or so behind judd atm. i have gone through my pendlebury votes multiple times and still feel like 18 is about where he is, while judd is definitely 3-4 ahead.

sorry if this question has been asked before, but has everyone on here done brownlow counts before and if so, how close to the real count did u actually end up?

with so many all over pendles, im starting to question myself!

 

[chico]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2011 (Part 1)

would like to see this just for kicks as well.

as soon as the prices were put up, they were written down in the big footy brownlow 2010 thread. u can find out by going back through the big footy statistics topic and finding brownlow 2010. it might be in part 2, just check the dates

 

[GoodesStuff]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2011 (Part 1)

would like to see this just for kicks as well.

Tuesday morning after Round 22.

 

[bob7965]

just going through the thread and current leaderboards, i appear to be the only one with pendlebury 4 or so behind judd atm. i have gone through my pendlebury votes multiple times and still feel like 18 is about where he is, while judd is definitely 3-4 ahead.

sorry if this question has been asked before, but has everyone on here done brownlow counts before and if so, how close to the real count did u actually end up?

with so many all over pendles, im starting to question myself!

I'm the same as you mate. Got Judd 4 ahead. Judd 23 Pendles 19. This surprised me a little too with what others had but I don't really care for overall result, it just confirms that pendlebury is the man to lead collingwoods. On last year I did have Judd winning and also had a bit on him @$11 to lead halfway. Could very well lead down this path again however I think Murphy would have pipped him at the halfway mark this time round.

 

[chico]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2011 (Part 1)

DR awkward, i have murphy with a bit less than you, when u get a chance could u provide ur breakdown of his votes, i will do the same. wanna make sure i haven't underpolled him and if i need to re re-watch a match or two! also judd's would probably be helpful too ta

 

[chico]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2011 (Part 1)

in fact following on from my last post, if people do get a chance over the next few days please post your breakdown's of judd and murphy (i noticed a few breakdown's of pendles earlier in the thread) given it appears that the winner is likely to come from one of those three. will post mine tomorrow

 

[chico]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2011 (Part 1)

I'm the same as you mate. Got Judd 4 ahead. Judd 23 Pendles 19. This surprised me a little too with what others had but I don't really care for overall result, it just confirms that pendlebury is the man to lead collingwoods. On last year I did have Judd winning and also had a bit on him @$11 to lead halfway. Could very well lead down this path again however I think Murphy would have pipped him at the halfway mark this time round.

good to know there is another count similar to mine! got judd 22.2 (22) and pendles 17.7 (18) atm. half way could be close, i have judd pipping murphy atm but im thinking i might have to go back and re-watch a few of the early carlton wins to make sure. those first 6-7 rounds might be where r12 leader and overall winner is won/lost for judd and murph

 

[Grimmjow]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2011 (Part 1)

just going through the thread and current leaderboards, i appear to be the only one with pendlebury 4 or so behind judd atm. i have gone through my pendlebury votes multiple times and still feel like 18 is about where he is, while judd is definitely 3-4 ahead.

sorry if this question has been asked before, but has everyone on here done brownlow counts before and if so, how close to the real count did u actually end up?

with so many all over pendles, im starting to question myself!

My leaderboard

22 M.Murphy
20 C.Judd
19 S.Pendlebury, S.Mitchell
16 B.Moloney, D.Swan
15 M.Priddis, M.Boyd, D.Cox
14 R.Griffen, A.Goodes, J.Watson, D.Thomas, L.Hodge
13 J.Selwood
12 G.Ablett, M.Pavlich, L.Franklin

Overpolled Swan, Cox for a reason.

Last year I had Swan, Ablett, Judd in that order. Surprisingly and dissapointed that TAB did not offer this Trifecta combo, so instead took up Judd Top 5 $3 and Judd H2H $2 (vs Goddard).

Murphy and Judd can be easily swapped pending who gets the 3s/2s in certain games. Not really fussed as i've taken up Team Carl Brownlow.

I dont think Ablett is any threat.

 

[Grimmjow]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2011 (Part 1)

in fact following on from my last post, if people do get a chance over the next few days please post your breakdown's of judd and murphy (i noticed a few breakdown's of pendles earlier in the thread) given it appears that the winner is likely to come from one of those three. will post mine tomorrow

C.Judd

R1 - 1
R2 - 3
R5 - 2.5
R6 - 3
R10 - 3
R12 - 1
R15 - 3
R17 - 1
R18 - 3

Total: 20.5

M.Murphy

R1 - 2
R2 - 2
R4 - 1.5
R5 - 2.5
R9 - 2
R10 - 2
R11 - 2
R12 - 2
R13 - 2
R15 - 1
R16 - 2
R18 - 1

Total: 22


Unrealistically Murphy would not poll that many 2s on the night and usually winner should have atleast 5-6 3votes min'm. He's just been super consistent.

 

[char]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2011 (Part 1)

C.Judd

R1 - 1
R2 - 3
R5 - 2.5
R6 - 3
R10 - 3
R12 - 1
R15 - 3
R17 - 1
R18 - 3

Total: 20.5

M.Murphy

R1 - 2
R2 - 2
R4 - 1.5
R5 - 2.5
R9 - 2
R10 - 2
R11 - 2
R12 - 2
R13 - 2
R15 - 1
R16 - 2
R18 - 1

Total: 22


Unrealistically Murphy would not poll that many 2s on the night and usually winner should have atleast 5-6 3votes min'm. He's just been super consistent.

Judd:
R2 - 3
R3 - 2
R5 - 2
R6 - 3
R10 - 2
R12 - 2
R15 - 3
R17 - 2
R18 - 3

22 total

Murphy:
R1 - 2
R2 - 1
R5 - 3
R9 - 1
R10 - 3
R11 - 1
R12 - 3
R13 - 2
R18 - 1

17 total

 

[Better_Than_You]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2011 (Part 1)

Judd (27)

Rd1 - 3
Rd2 – 2
Rd3 – 1
Rd5 – 3
Rd6 – 3
Rd7 – 1
Rd10 – 3
Rd12 – 3
Rd15 – 3
Rd17 – 2
Rd18 – 3

Murphy (21)

Rd1 – 2
Rd2 – 3
Rd4 – 1
Rd5 – 2
Rd9 – 1
Rd10 – 2
Rd11 – 3
Rd12 – 2
Rd13 – 2
Rd15 – 1
Rd16 – 1
Rd18 – 1

Pendlebury (23)

Rd1 – 2
Rd2 – 3
Rd5 – 3
Rd9 – 1
Rd10 – 2
Rd11 – 3
Rd15 – 1
Rd16 – 2
Rd17 – 3
Rd18 – 3

 

[tornsword]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2011 (Part 1)

Judd (27)

Rd1 - 3
Rd2 – 2
Rd3 – 1
Rd5 – 3
Rd6 – 3
Rd7 – 1
Rd10 – 3
Rd12 – 3
Rd15 – 3
Rd17 – 2
Rd18 – 3

Murphy (21)

Rd1 – 2
Rd2 – 3
Rd4 – 1
Rd5 – 2
Rd9 – 1
Rd10 – 2
Rd11 – 3
Rd12 – 2
Rd13 – 2
Rd15 – 1
Rd16 – 1
Rd18 – 1

Pendlebury (23)

Rd1 – 2
Rd2 – 3
Rd5 – 3
Rd9 – 1
Rd10 – 2
Rd11 – 3
Rd15 – 1
Rd16 – 2
Rd17 – 3
Rd18 – 3

Personally I have you way overpolling Judd and Pendlebury there. I'll tip my hat to you if you're right but 27 is way too much for me. Pendlebury is 18 and Judd 21.

For mine the bet would be Sam Mitchell. I have him on 22 and equal first..

 

[Frankie23]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2011 (Part 1)

Like most others, I see the winner coming from Pendlebury, Judd or Murphy. I've already bet on Murphy earlier this year, so time to unload on Judd and Pendles...Cover all bases then try pick a winner later in the year...

Judd/Coll/Franklin/Storm to make the GF@13.67
Pendlebury/Franklin/Coll@27.36
Pendlebury/Cloke@72

Thoughts on those multis?

 

[chico]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2011 (Part 1)

okay

judd:

r1 - 1.4 (1)
r2 - 2.4 (3)
r3 - .8 (chance of 1)
r4 - .4 (small chance of 1)
r5 - 2.6 (3)
r6 - 3 (3)
r7 - 2 (2)
r10 - 2.3 (3)
r12 - .6 (chance of 1)
r15 - 2.3 (3 votes)
r16 - .3 (small chance of 1)
r17 - 1.6 (2 votes)
r18 - 2.5 (2 or 3 up against betts)

= 22.2 (22)

i've decided to go back and re-watch carlton's first 4-5 matches and the round 7 game against the saints, will do it next week, as i have him potentially polling 2 or 3 in r7 yet others don't appear to have him at all in the votes for that match.

rounds 1 and 2 will be interesting as well as there are a number of carlton players that could poll in these matches, in particular murphy and gibbs. it looks like he may have 5 or 6 3 vote games locked away though at this stage.

murphy:

r1 - 2 (potentially 3 though, will re-watch)
r2 - 1.8 (2)
r4 - .6 (1)
r5 - 2.1 (2)
r9 - 1.8 (2)
r10 - 2.1 (2)
r11 - 1.1 (1)
r12 - 1.1 (1)
r13 - 1.6 (2)
r14 - .4 (small chance of picking up 1)
r15 - .6 (judd/robinson 3/2, murphy/simpson/betts a chance at 1?)
r16 - 2 (2)
r18 - .6 (1)

= 17.8 (18)

i appear to have murphy only getting 1 in r12 v brisbane, what were people's votes for that game? i have simpson and scotland potentially polling here. judd and walker also. struggled to pick a 3 in this one.

r12 carl/bl:

simpson 1.6
scotland 1.6
murphy 1.1
walker .8
judd .6
carrazzo .2
robinson .2

just looking over the stats again for this game, murph did have 7 clearances, better than any other carlton player.. might have to re-watch this one as well!

big week of carlton matches coming up.

 

[bob7965]

The chatter on here is fantastic now. It's great to have so much discussions, opinions and points of view.

However coming into the last 5 rounds (particularly the last couple) will see a lot of eyes on this board, from others who have had minimal input. Which in turn can kill odds if we don't get our bets on first.

Does this concern anyone else? Any ideas on how we can limit this?

 

[char]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2011 (Part 1)

Keep your counts and potential winners from teams in PM's only.

Agreed. Happy to PM with anybody and share thoughts on votes / team leaders / odds. If you're keen then fire away!

 

[Better_Than_You]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2011 (Part 1)

Personally I have you way overpolling Judd and Pendlebury there. I'll tip my hat to you if you're right but 27 is way too much for me. Pendlebury is 18 and Judd 21.

For mine the bet would be Sam Mitchell. I have him on 22 and equal first..

Yeah I suspect you are right mate, I have Mitchell on 24. I would be confident Judd is ahead but probably more likely 22-24; if he has 27 already he may well smash the polling record under the 3-2-1 system and be headed for high 30's.

Brownlow history would tell us otherwise, but with his polling history plus the fact he has had an outstanding year this year compared to last season, who knows?

 

[Better_Than_You]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2011 (Part 1)

Agreed. Happy to PM with anybody and share thoughts on votes / team leaders / odds. If you're keen then fire away!

Yeah same here, have put a heap of work into the count this season so am happy to share information

 

[mdc]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2011 (Part 1)

Did anyone save the supercoach/ChampionData scores from previous years?