Brownlow Medal 2011 (Part 2)

[CamTinley]

BK was the one that went hard on Murph at R12 and Goodes overall. He would have taken a big hit with those but he would have ended up a long way ahead, there really wasn't a surprise in the Team votes. A couple of lucky ones like Thompson polling terribly at Adelaide but still winning, cox over polling but still behind Priddisoodle. I very much doubt their board would be in mourning ...Im fairly sure that they would have had Rockliff in alot of Multi's hence Twarbs and Stuzi talking up Redden for weeks...

I'm pretty partial to the odd Conspiracy Theory but IMO BK was probably identified by the bookies and his overall assessments were known by them.

Here were the Centrebet Odds on the Monday at the conclusion of Round 12.

C Judd $3.75
M Murphy $7.50
S Pendlebury $8.00
J Watson $9.00
G Ablett $17.00
D Swan $17.00

Here were the Centrebet Odds before the count

M Murphy $1.90
C Judd $3.00
J Watson $7.00
S Pendlebury $8.00
M Boyd $10.00
D Cox $17.00
G Ablett $26.00
D Swan $26.00

Centrebet have radically changed sentiment towards M Murphy and sure Murphy was backed heavily but he still opened @$3.00's or something.

I reckon someone close to BK is a double agent

 

[char]

Here were the Centrebet Odds before the count

M Murphy $1.90
C Judd $3.00
J Watson $7.00
S Pendlebury $8.00
M Boyd $10.00
D Cox $17.00
G Ablett $26.00
D Swan $26.00

Haha - maybe too quick to be paranoid over this one but if I remember correctly, Murphy opened up at around $4.00 to be leading after round 12. He got crunched in to $1.90 over the next 4 or so hours from memory. EDIT: That was for TAB at least - I think Centrebet ended up just copying their odds.

Strange that Pendlebury overpolled (at least according to the majority of us) up until round 12, and then after that Swan took precedence over him in similar performance comparisons. Maybe he shouldn't have cut the dreads?

 

[Sasquatch]

i think this thread needs too be shut for the good of the punting board, half of these chumps slinging shit ive never seen on here before...

That is why I dont post bets here anymore and I presume others are the same. This board getting shit

 

[Stockdale]

That is why I dont post bets here anymore and I presume others are the same. This board getting shit

So you bag peoples opinions on the Covers forum instead?? Eh Bolar

 

[Donkson]

That is why I dont post bets here anymore and I presume others are the same. This board getting shit

Yeah the quality of posting is certainly pretty shit. 90% of the board is shit slinging and people posting their 8 leg multis at 1.90.

 

[char]

I don't see the problem with posting thoughts on individual matches or any other factors that may help while keeping a count, but discussing value bets and actual leaderboards / team leaders is probably a bit of a grey area until after the count. The only people that helps are the ones that are looking for a free ride come the end of the season.

I'll be keeping any of those kinds of discussions either to myself (which is a bit boring ) or over PMs (which I'm more than happy to participate in) - but still really keen to discuss the Brownlow itself, overpolling vs underpolling, and any other topics that may come up.

I'll also be hoping that we can keep a top-quality Brownlow thread happening next year as it is a great place to get a wide range of opinions (which was very evident this year) and I really enjoyed the discussions / comparisons we had throughout the year.

That's just me anyway

 

[dylan123]

I think what Forthwrite had to say a day or so before the brownlow was pretty spot on RE winners from the previous season underpolling quite a bit at the beginning of the following season. Judd was no where to be seen and should have polled a bit more then he did compared to what he got in the first 5 rounds (imo of course).http://www.fantasyfootyclub.com/member.php?165-Forthwrite

 

[AjsGuns]

Well done Baywatch, personally didnt have a cent on Swan. Not sure how he got up but props to all you guys who had $$ on him was overs at $16 but had him 5th on my count and thought id be wasting cash hedging, obviously not to phased he got up due to other bets.

 

[danielz_23]

Can anyone shed light (or speculate) as to why Goodes was so well tried in the markets?

It seemed to occur once the finals came around and Melbourne actually realised it was a national competition... but gee the guy didnt do much early in the year, they didnt win a lot of games, and he just didnt measure up (the result now shows) - could this have be driven by the betting agencies to attract (dead) money on him and it just gained momentum with casual supporter money?...

I did a quick pre-brownlow polling session last night on Collingwood (Swan, Pendles), Carlton (Judd, Murphy) and Sydney (Goodes) games and came up with Swan 35, Pendles 30, Murphy 30, Judd 25, Goodes 15... and these were optimistic results for those players...

Didnt have too much confidence in that prediction because I was baffled by actual market so my only brownlow bet was Swan to poll more than Goodes ($2.70 on Sportingbet). I will take my money and run but Goodes 2nd in market versus swan/pendles with gazzillions of 30+ disposal in a team that won 22 (?) games.... and other who now armed with the knowledge of the results beat him by a mile...

 

[AjsGuns]

I had Goodes in the mid 20's although i got him at 17's and 9's wouldnt of touched him at <$6's. His a proven poll getter and had alot of games he was ment to get 2's and 3's in however last year he polled ordinary and the trent continued this year. Just because he had low stat games compared to others doesn't mean much. Judd got second year blues, thought it was Pendles medal after Round 8 personally.

 

[Damarus]

I had Goodes in the mid 20's although i got him at 17's and 9's wouldnt of touched him at <$6's. His a proven poll getter and had alot of games he was ment to get 2's and 3's in however last year he polled ordinary and the trent continued this year. Just because he had low stat games compared to others doesn't mean much. Judd got second year blues, thought it was Pendles medal after Round 8 personally.

He's probably more of a proven vote getter than a poll getter

 

[danielz_23]

I had Goodes in the mid 20's although i got him at 17's and 9's wouldnt of touched him at <$6's. His a proven poll getter and had alot of games he was ment to get 2's and 3's in however last year he polled ordinary and the trent continued this year. Just because he had low stat games compared to others doesn't mean much. Judd got second year blues, thought it was Pendles medal after Round 8 personally.

I honestly dont see where he picks up 7-10 more votes (for your mid 20s). Going win by win he got every vote he should have... you wouldnt want to hold your hopes on votes in losses, he didnt have ablett-like loss performances

Anyway i think it is a worthwhile discussion as he was probably the biggest inconsistency between the pre count betting market and the actual result... i am still miffed ... so many were spruiking him on Monday and i see no reason to suggest he missed many votes

 

[Damarus]

I honestly dont see where he picks up 7-10 more votes (for your mid 20s). Going win by win he got every vote he should have... you wouldnt want to hold your hopes on votes in losses, he didnt have ablett-like loss performances

Anyway i think it is a worthwhile discussion as he was probably the biggest inconsistency between the pre count betting market and the actual result... i am still miffed ... so many were spruiking him on Monday and i see no reason to suggest he missed many votes

I'm curious, how did you formulate your count? This will probably go a long way towards answering your question. Do you do a stats based count?

 

[Dr Awkward]

Congrats to everyone that came out on top.

Was lucky to win $4k from $400. Got on sportsbet before they restricted the amount of legs. All multies got up except Westhoffs one's which were hedged with Gray. I had a five figure sum ready to go in my TAB account but since the TAB changed there mind on multi's could only afford the $400 to quickly chuck in Sportsbet. A bit annoyed that I didn't/couldn't bet more.

Had a dabble at singles markets only to get my money back really. Now know not to use them next year. Seems that's how the bookies trapped a few.

Fyfe/Cotchin/Gray/Priddis got me the value. Trusted my instincts with Cotchin as I feel he caught the eye similiar to Boak last year. A few must have got burnt with Martin as his odds were crunched from his opening price. Stayed clear of Collingwood, had Swan beating Pendles but my head said Pendles would beat him so I stayed clear.

I admire Twarby and your confidence, it takes balls to back yourself like that but it shows not to shut down other opinions either. Not sure if this will get answered but I gather the majority of you blokes would have got burnt including BK? I guess you all came to the conclusion not to cover Swan and back Goodes.

Anyway I look forward to next year, hopefully lessons are learnt to shut your mouths as sites like phantom brownlow will take our info and adjust odds accordingly. Sure post your votes on here but keep team leaders and overall leaders to PM's.

Spot on bob, nice post. Except I disagree with the bit in bold, made quite a bit from h2h bets.

 

[Ricketts]

flipping lol @ Shuey over Bolton. Bolton has him covered after Round 3 FFS.

Yeah..

 

[char]

Yeah..

lol

I had Shuey 12 and Bolton 13 in my count, so left it alone.

 

[KardiniaPark]

Probably why I stay away from h2h

 

[Gift]

I reckon Goodes didnt poll well because he yelled at the umps for free kicks so much at the start of the year, then when he started playing well in the second half he stopped, but the thing is umps dont forget

 

[danielz_23]

I'm curious, how did you formulate your count? This will probably go a long way towards answering your question. Do you do a stats based count?

I did a rough disposal and goals based count with preference to winning team... I was 1 off with Swan, 1 off Goodes, exact on Judd... 10 off on Murphy!!... 5 off on Pendles

Always interesting I guess... how do you value best, everyone is different and as such the umpires can never be right...

Most touches, most crucial touches, contested marks, points on the board, winning or losing team... chicken or egg kind off stuff when you talk about forwards vs mids...

Might have a look later and see what drives umpires votes - rather than just throw my arms up and say "make up votes", "Smith was robbed", "midfielders only poll"... etc

 

[2121]

1 bet on the brownlow for 1 return had 50 on swan but **** the tab wouldnt let me put a double of swan/geelong into manly... pricks hope someone cleaned them out.

 

[Villie88]

The umps absolutely love Ablett, Goodes polling two votes in the game against Essendon that he was clearly BOG, Judd not polling in his 200th game against Gold Coast when he was clearly in the top three players on the ground.

These incidents with many others during brownlow night indicate how umpires have a very little idea of what they are doing and shouldn't be the ones making the decisions on who gets how may votes, at the end of the day, the main culprit would be Jeff Giecshan.

Luke Shuey beat Jude Bolten, that'd be right.

Well done to all, 5 leggers on sportsbet seemed to work out with Selwood, Cotchin, Priddis, Swallow and Fyfe.

 

[The_Big_Ship]

1 bet on the brownlow for 1 return had 50 on swan but **** the tab wouldnt let me put a double of swan/geelong into manly... pricks hope someone cleaned them out.

I tried to put a similar multi on the other day. They let me about a month ago, but I wanted to put the same multi on again last week but wouldn't allow it this time. They banned all multis involving the brownlow, such bs. Just glad I actually got something on when I could.

 

[Dr Awkward]

I reckon Goodes didnt poll well because he yelled at the umps for free kicks so much at the start of the year, then when he started playing well in the second half he stopped, but the thing is umps dont forget

I reckon he polled pretty much how he should have, and I'm not sure where all the media hype and hype from people on this board came from because I only had him on 20.

 

[KardiniaPark]

1 bet on the brownlow for 1 return had 50 on swan but **** the tab wouldnt let me put a double of swan/geelong into manly... pricks hope someone cleaned them out.

Why don't you just put all your winnings on Geelong and then follow up the next day if they win?

 

[Wickzki]

Will come clean.... I didn't manage a single bet. Had my account frozen due to inactivity and failure to show my ID (which I still have to do) with Sportsbet who I would have gone through. Still am well up on where I started ($20 bet on Pendles to win the Norm Smith last year) and can't remember really betting since the last NFL season.

Anyone know how long it takes Sportsbet to get your account reactivated when you send them ID?