Analysis Bye Time - The Run Home Special

[ubiquitous226]

The mid-season bye is probably too early for this but I thought I'd take a look at what we have in front of us.

To make finals we'll likely need 6 more wins.
Looking at each block of games, we'll need at least 2 from each block, with the possibility of banking earlier wins there with the last 3 games some of our hardest on paper at least.

Western Bulldogs [8d] vs Fremantle [13d] (Marvel)
Fremantle [8d] vs Gold Coast [15d] (Optus)
Sydney [7d] vs Fremantle [6d] (SCG)
Fremantle [7d] vs Richmond [6d] (Optus)

Hawthorn [7d] vs Fremantle [7d] (UTAS)
Fremantle [8d] vs Melbourne [8d] (Optus)
Fremantle [6d] vs West Coast [7d] (Optus)
Essendon [8d] vs Fremantle [8d] (MCG)

Fremantle [6d] vs Geelong [7d] (Optus)
GWS [7d] vs Fremantle [7d] (ENGIE Syd)
Fremantle [?] vs Port Adelaide [?] (Optus)

Another way to look at the breakdown is into categories, any game we give up in the first two categories we must make up from the others.
You'll likely have slightly different opinions on each category, with the should win / 50:50 pretty close for our fixture for me.

Must win
Richmond, West Coast

Should win
Western Bulldogs, Hawthorn, Gold Coast, Melbourne

50/50
Essendon, Geelong, Port Adelaide

Who knows
Sydney, GWS

 

[FUS_RO_DAH]

I'm itching for that Essendon game at the MCG.
Less itching for taking on Hawthorn at heckin UTAS.
That home derby is an absolute non-negotiable.

 

[DragoDelph]

At the start of the season, I had them like this.

Western Bulldogs vs Fremantle (Marvel)
Fremantle vs Gold Coast (Optus)
Sydney vs Fremantle (SCG)
Fremantle vs Richmond (Optus)

Hawthorn vs Fremantle (UTAS)
Fremantle vs Melbourne (Optus)
Fremantle vs West Coast (Optus)
Essendon vs Fremantle (MCG)

Fremantle vs Geelong (Optus)
GWS vs Fremantle (ENGIE Syd)
Fremantle vs Port Adelaide (Optus)

so 9 wins.

I think 8, if we switch the Sydney game result to the favourite. (I had us losing to them at home, and winning away. Their game style is more open, ours is more contested).

I think we'll beat the dogs now, but wouldn't be surprised if another weird result goes against us.

I'd expect, worst case, to win 7. leaving us on 14 wins, 1 draw.

 

[poshman]

The mid-season bye is probably too early for this but I thought I'd take a look at what we have in front of us.

To make finals we'll likely need 6 more wins.
Looking at each block of games, we'll need at least 2 from each block, with the possibility of banking earlier wins there with the last 3 games some of our hardest on paper at least.

Western Bulldogs vs Fremantle (Marvel)
Fremantle vs Gold Coast (Optus)
Sydney vs Fremantle (SCG)
Fremantle vs Richmond (Optus)

Hawthorn vs Fremantle (UTAS)
Fremantle vs Melbourne (Optus)
Fremantle vs West Coast (Optus)
Essendon vs Fremantle (MCG)

Fremantle vs Geelong (Optus)
GWS vs Fremantle (ENGIE Syd)
Fremantle vs Port Adelaide (Optus)

Another way to look at the breakdown is into categories, any game we give up in the first two categories we must make up from the others.
You'll likely have slightly different opinions on each category, with the should win / 50:50 pretty close for our fixture for me.

Must win
Richmond, West Coast

Should win
Western Bulldogs, Hawthorn, Gold Coast, Melbourne

50/50
Essendon, Geelong, Port Adelaide

Who knows
Sydney, GWS

I think 6 is the minimum and am expecting 7.

Western Bulldogs vs Fremantle (Marvel) W
Fremantle vs Gold Coast (Optus) W
Sydney vs Fremantle (SCG) L
Fremantle vs Richmond (Optus) W

Hawthorn vs Fremantle (UTAS) W
Fremantle vs Melbourne (Optus) W
Fremantle vs West Coast (Optus) W
Essendon vs Fremantle (MCG) W

Fremantle vs Geelong (Optus) W
GWS vs Fremantle (ENGIE Syd) L
Fremantle vs Port Adelaide (Optus) 50/50

WB and Essendon are the one's I am least confident about.

 

[Taylor]

If we can beat the Dogs after the bye then we can get away with just winning five games at Optus before our final round against Port.

If we have four wins already coming into the home game against Melbourne (beating Dogs, Hawks away and Suns, Tigers at home) we should start thinking about resting players for home finals.

 

[mattis117]

I'm itching for that Essendon game at the MCG.
Less itching for taking on Hawthorn at heckin UTAS.
That home derby is an absolute non-negotiable.

I have had an eye on that hawks game in Tassie as the biggest danger game in our back half. If we're going to drop one we should win, that will be the one.

 

[Ysaye]

The bye stopped our momentum to a grinding halt last year with a loss against Richmond first up; hopefully we hit our next game after the bye with some real energy - we will definitely need it as the Bulldogs will be desperate to stay with the pack. If we can come away from that next group of four with some confidence then I am optimistic about making a significant impact off the next group.

 

[Joao]

The bye stopped our momentum to a grinding halt last year with a loss against Richmond first up; hopefully we hit our next game after the bye with some real energy - we will definitely need it as the Bulldogs will be desperate to stay with the pack. If we can come away from that next group of four with some confidence then I am optimistic about making a significant impact off the next group.

JL even addressed it in the presser. Hopefully they try something different this year.

 

[poshman]

The bye stopped our momentum to a grinding halt last year with a loss against Richmond first up; hopefully we hit our next game after the bye with some real energy - we will definitely need it as the Bulldogs will be desperate to stay with the pack. If we can come away from that next group of four with some confidence then I am optimistic about making a significant impact off the next group.

The guy I know at the club when talking about the win over the Dees, brought up starting strong after the bye. They are very focussed on it.

 

[FreoGirl]

Having bulldogs again so soon seems crazy.

I hate these big gaps between home games!

 

[Spirit Level]

Ergh the bye came at the worst possible time, hopefully we can start up again in what will be a danger game against the Bulldogs

 

[Taylor]

Dogs have the bye the week after our game so they should try and run us off our feet, especially since they are at Marvel for something like six weeks.

 

[Fat Nyfe]

6-5 gets us a finals berth.

7-4 a home final

8-3 or better, top 4.

 

[james haish]

Western Bulldogs vs Fremantle (Marvel)
Fremantle vs Gold Coast (Optus)
Sydney vs Fremantle (SCG)
Fremantle vs Richmond (Optus)

Hawthorn vs Fremantle (UTAS)
Fremantle vs Melbourne (Optus)
Fremantle vs West Coast (Optus)
Essendon vs Fremantle (MCG)

Fremantle vs Geelong (Optus)
GWS vs Fremantle (ENGIE Syd)
Fremantle vs Port Adelaide (Optus)

First block of four going 2-2 is probably fair.

Next block we should win them all.

And last three we should go 2-1.

8 wins

 

[heypenny]

Having bulldogs again so soon seems crazy.

I hate these big gaps between home games!

Although it's odd to face the Bulldogs again so quickly, we're probably playing them at the right time. No Darcy or Naughton and we should have an advantage if we're rested. A win against the Bulldogs would really set-up the second half of the season.

 

[Taylor]

First block of four going 2-2 is probably fair.

Next block we should win them all.

And last three we should go 2-1.

8 wins

15.5 wins and 62 premiership points is going to need there to not be two rubbish sides at the bottom of the ladder for us to finish top four, it didn't work out that way the last couple of years.

North and Richmond have one win between them, so it's probably the same again this year. So we need 64+ points for top four.

 

[james haish]

15.5 wins and 62 premiership points is going to need there to not be two rubbish sides at the bottom of the ladder for us to finish top four, it didn't work out that way the last couple of years.

North and Richmond have one win between them, so it's probably the same again this year. So we need 64+ points for top four.

Ran the sims on squiggle a bunch times, 15.5 win always makes top four

 

[Taylor]

Ran the sims on squiggle a bunch times, 15.5 win always makes top four

Just not the last two years?

 

[FreoMatt]

Although it's odd to face the Bulldogs again so quickly, we're probably playing them at the right time. No Darcy or Naughton and we should have an advantage if we're rested. A win against the Bulldogs would really set-up the second half of the season.

Yeah good outs but Richards and Libber will be back this week


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com

 

[Deathly]

I have us losing to GWS and Melbourne at home. I'm treating Bulldogs as the 50/50, but if we repeat in that game anything we saw on the weekend (not necessarily the score line and margin but just how we played and intent) then the lid is off.

 

[heypenny]

I have us losing to GWS and Melbourne at home. I'm treating Bulldogs as the 50/50, but if we repeat in that game anything we saw on the weekend (not necessarily the score line and margin but just how we played and intent) then the lid is off.

Losing to Melbourne at home - did you miss yesterday's match? We just beat them by 15 goals on neutral territory!

 

[pK75]

GWS and Port to end the season are tough games, Sydney away is probably the toughest, but we have a habit of getting up against ladder leaders and we didn’t play that badly against them last time, just couldn’t buy a goal. The rest we should win, I’m still not sold on Essendon being a contender, think they’re the flakiest top 4 team in years.

 

[james haish]

Just not the last two years?

This season is more even at the same round. Last year 9th was four wins from second at round 12. This year it’s 1.5 wins

 

[Fat Nyfe]

Losing to Melbourne at home - did you miss yesterday's match? We just beat them by 15 goals on neutral territory!

Which is exactly why we will lose to them at home. This is Fremantle. Deathly gets it

 

[Alfonz]

I think 7-4 is about what we should expect. Win all 6 home games and get one on the road. Or more on the road if we drop any home games. This should have us around 5th/6th and get a home final.

It will be tough to win too many from Sydney, GWS, Dogs (2nd/3rd ranked team by most premiership metrics), Hawks (in Tassie and playing well) and Essendon. The latter is the team I would most favour us beating. I think their % tells the true story and expect them to drop out of the 8.