- Sep 27, 2018
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pffft everyone is irrelevant.
freo to win all remaining games
freo to win all remaining games
Analysis Bye Time - The Run Home Special
- Thread starter ubiquitous226
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"they should try"...lol
Got to turn this not good after the bye thing into "shock and awe!"
ie, not like the opening five against the Dees.
DeadEyeJye
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- Dec 7, 2022
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Yeah but there is no way they will dish up the same level of dog5hit again next time. That's not to say we can't beat them, but it won't be a walk in the park
Cayman Docker
Team Captain
The bye has been our Achilles heel the last 2 seasons. The Doggies won’t be as easy as to knock over as they were at home, if we can beat them at Marvel I am predicting we will officially be on our way to great things. It’s going to be a belter.
Western Bulldogs vs Fremantle (Marvel)
Fremantle vs Gold Coast (Optus)
Sydney vs Fremantle (SCG)
Fremantle vs Richmond (Optus)
2.5 expected wins from the first 4, bulldogs is a big one.
Hawthorn vs Fremantle (UTAS)
Fremantle vs Melbourne (Optus)
Fremantle vs West Coast (Optus)
Essendon vs Fremantle (MCG)
Hawks game is the 50/50 one, plus the Essendon game away.
Hawks are playing very good football at the moment, and will be very tough to beat at the moment especially in Tas.
We need to beat Melbourne and the Eagles at home.
2.5 to 3 wins expected.
Fremantle vs Geelong (Optus)
GWS vs Fremantle (ENGIE Syd)
Fremantle vs Port Adelaide (Optus)
No easy wins in the last 3. It will depend a lot on form, of all 3 teams. I think we would win all 3, if we played them now but in reality, they are all 50/50 games.
1.5 to 2 wins
Looking at 8 more wins for the year, which will have us on 13.5 wins.
Squiggle matches this pretty closely.
Fremantle vs Gold Coast (Optus)
Sydney vs Fremantle (SCG)
Fremantle vs Richmond (Optus)
2.5 expected wins from the first 4, bulldogs is a big one.
Hawthorn vs Fremantle (UTAS)
Fremantle vs Melbourne (Optus)
Fremantle vs West Coast (Optus)
Essendon vs Fremantle (MCG)
Hawks game is the 50/50 one, plus the Essendon game away.
Hawks are playing very good football at the moment, and will be very tough to beat at the moment especially in Tas.
We need to beat Melbourne and the Eagles at home.
2.5 to 3 wins expected.
Fremantle vs Geelong (Optus)
GWS vs Fremantle (ENGIE Syd)
Fremantle vs Port Adelaide (Optus)
No easy wins in the last 3. It will depend a lot on form, of all 3 teams. I think we would win all 3, if we played them now but in reality, they are all 50/50 games.
1.5 to 2 wins
Looking at 8 more wins for the year, which will have us on 13.5 wins.
Squiggle matches this pretty closely.
Confucius
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- Jan 7, 2016
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We started the season with the second youngest list in the comp. None of the 'experts" tipped us to make the 8 and I was personally expecting and up-and-down year where we'd hopefully sneak in some finals experience.
But here we are at the mid year break with the second best percentage in the league and if we'd had a competent umpire in the Carlton game, we'd be 2nd on the ladder.
I think the Dees game has gotten a few people overexcited. It's clear particularly on the replay that the Demons were flat as a tack in Alice. Who knows what was going on for them... maybe a bunch of them had the flu? Maybe some conflict on the team? A death? Who knows... Either way, while it was great to get a glimpse of what our best looks like, one swallow doesn't make a summer. We won't get many games as easy as that one.
It's obviously a really even competition with only one stand out team and another 10 who are close. A couple of injuries to key Swans players and it's anyones flag. We are a chance this year as much as 10 other teams. Interesting to ponder what might have been if we'd have kicked straight against Sydney...
I think we're still a young side and should expect some inconsistency as the year rolls on. But squiggle says we finish 4th and if we win one less than that we finish 6th. I'm stoked with either. Bring on September.
For me, what's exciting is 2025.
Our forward line in particular is still growing (in experience and strength). Losing Lachie Shultz, Sonny's decline with age and our lack of replacements are exacerbating the weakest point in our strategy. But gee whizz, if we find a consistent goal kicker or two in Simpson, Sturt or the trade period... we'll be hard to beat for a few years!
Giddyup Wharfies!
But here we are at the mid year break with the second best percentage in the league and if we'd had a competent umpire in the Carlton game, we'd be 2nd on the ladder.
I think the Dees game has gotten a few people overexcited. It's clear particularly on the replay that the Demons were flat as a tack in Alice. Who knows what was going on for them... maybe a bunch of them had the flu? Maybe some conflict on the team? A death? Who knows... Either way, while it was great to get a glimpse of what our best looks like, one swallow doesn't make a summer. We won't get many games as easy as that one.
It's obviously a really even competition with only one stand out team and another 10 who are close. A couple of injuries to key Swans players and it's anyones flag. We are a chance this year as much as 10 other teams. Interesting to ponder what might have been if we'd have kicked straight against Sydney...
I think we're still a young side and should expect some inconsistency as the year rolls on. But squiggle says we finish 4th and if we win one less than that we finish 6th. I'm stoked with either. Bring on September.
For me, what's exciting is 2025.
Our forward line in particular is still growing (in experience and strength). Losing Lachie Shultz, Sonny's decline with age and our lack of replacements are exacerbating the weakest point in our strategy. But gee whizz, if we find a consistent goal kicker or two in Simpson, Sturt or the trade period... we'll be hard to beat for a few years!
Giddyup Wharfies!
I think 2025 will be exciting, 2026 to 2030 should be really really special.
Imagine finishing top 4 in 2025, and then adding Warner to our list.
- Thread starter
- #35
Thanks for putting your spin on it too.
It is worth noting we're on 7 wins now (+the draw), I've assumed we'll need 13 wins to make the finals.
Squiggle is interesting but the way it assigns probability to wins always mean the actual win totals are a bit low.
In reality a few teams will take a bunch of close wins and vice versa creating more spread than it predicts.
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- Sep 27, 2013
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What's with playing Melbourne in Round 12 and then again in Round 19. And Sydney in Round 9 and then Round 16 again. With fixturing like this as well as the Dogs getting 5 or 6 in a row at Marvel, Eagles playing 2 home games in a row currently, Essendon hardly leaving Melbourne in the second half of the season blind freddy must have done the AFL fixtures this year.
- Thread starter
- #37
In reality the fixture is super complicated, managing venues first, then the double ups, team breaks, marquee games, TV interests, umpires and all of the teams' requests.
I'm sure I've missed some factors too.
The short breaks between double ups is a bit of a weird phenomenon, like we'll have played all of our double ups except Port before we play Essendon, Geelong or GWS this year.
Maybe we can make a fixturing mini game for the AFL, give it a crack!
IT is all jsut an AFL conspiracy...
Confirmed by many BigFooty posters!
Confirmed by many BigFooty posters!
It's all about the money flow really. The money flowing from having Collingwood and Carlton in form and attracting big viewing audiences swamps anything that can be generated by Freo being at the peak.
It will be a financial disaster for the AFL (reckoning?) if Freo, Sydney and Port make up most of the top 4.
It will be a financial disaster for the AFL (reckoning?) if Freo, Sydney and Port make up most of the top 4.
Regardless of how many we win resting Fyfe, Omeara, Walters and Pearce for one game each in July makes sense (obviously not all 4 on the same weekend).
We all know the games we should win bu we're all aware of what will likely happen with Freo. Which is to say a few more amazing home game wins, and a few bed shittings at home.
But that shouldn't happen for the back half of this season - I'm so sick of going to home games to see us get pantsed by average teams, right off the back against gutsy away wins against insert Top 4 team here. Duffield's comments were absolutely correct, Freo need to turn their home ground back into a fortress.
We should win all the remaining home games - perhaps Geelong and Port Adeailde are 50/50 depending on where they're at by the end of the season. Gold Coast, West Coast, Richmond and Melbourne should be 4 guaranteed wins - anything less and we're not mature enough for finals.
GWS and Sydney are likely losses (it is what it is). Need to win one of Essendon/Bulldogs and then one of Geelong/Port to make a sure thing of it.
But that shouldn't happen for the back half of this season - I'm so sick of going to home games to see us get pantsed by average teams, right off the back against gutsy away wins against insert Top 4 team here. Duffield's comments were absolutely correct, Freo need to turn their home ground back into a fortress.
We should win all the remaining home games - perhaps Geelong and Port Adeailde are 50/50 depending on where they're at by the end of the season. Gold Coast, West Coast, Richmond and Melbourne should be 4 guaranteed wins - anything less and we're not mature enough for finals.
GWS and Sydney are likely losses (it is what it is). Need to win one of Essendon/Bulldogs and then one of Geelong/Port to make a sure thing of it.
We should back ourselves to beat both Geelong and Port here. But, if we split those it will be fine. We will become the hardest road trip in football soon.
- Jun 30, 2011
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In a sense the season is proceeding along squiggle like lines with teams splitting the 50/50s, hence everyone clustering together rather 'luckier' teams pulling ahead, bar the Swans of course.
Speaking of them the squiggle doesn't really rate them as a clear no. 1, just no 1 in front of a hugh pack. We are currently rated(4th) only 3 combined points behind Sydney (1), but then gold coast in 12th is only 4 points behind us.
100% on making our home ground a fortress. Even when we were a poor team, Subi was a difficult place to beat us. I'm as pessimistic and realistic as the next person, but we should win all of our matches at home for the rest of the season. The Dees, Cats and Power will be challenging, but they are must win if we want to be top 4.
This year is so open. Sydney is the standout - but they're not perfect, and meeting an interstate team in the GF on neutral territory is advantageous (I'm not predicting us to reach the GF but it's not outside the realms of possibility).
We need to be positive. We're one win away from second spot. You never know when this kind of opportunity will present itself again. We need to attack the second half of the season as if we're a contender. Because we are
- Thread starter
- #47
I added the days breaks between games for fun as well, the pleasing thing is there's no double ups of short breaks.
Asides from our game post bye the only other time we have a small advantage is against Richmond at home, while we have the opposite against Sydney, West Coast and Geelong.
The breaks around our long Tassie trip are ok, and I can't see any other major risks or opportunities.
Western Bulldogs [8d] vs Fremantle [13d] (Marvel)
Fremantle [8d] vs Gold Coast [15d] (Optus)
Sydney [7d] vs Fremantle [6d] (SCG)
Fremantle [7d] vs Richmond [6d] (Optus)
Hawthorn [7d] vs Fremantle [7d] (UTAS)
Fremantle [8d] vs Melbourne [8d] (Optus)
Fremantle [6d] vs West Coast [7d] (Optus)
Essendon [8d] vs Fremantle [8d] (MCG)
Fremantle [6d] vs Geelong [7d] (Optus)
GWS [7d] vs Fremantle [7d] (ENGIE Syd)
Fremantle [?] vs Port Adelaide [?] (Optus)
Asides from our game post bye the only other time we have a small advantage is against Richmond at home, while we have the opposite against Sydney, West Coast and Geelong.
The breaks around our long Tassie trip are ok, and I can't see any other major risks or opportunities.
Western Bulldogs [8d] vs Fremantle [13d] (Marvel)
Fremantle [8d] vs Gold Coast [15d] (Optus)
Sydney [7d] vs Fremantle [6d] (SCG)
Fremantle [7d] vs Richmond [6d] (Optus)
Hawthorn [7d] vs Fremantle [7d] (UTAS)
Fremantle [8d] vs Melbourne [8d] (Optus)
Fremantle [6d] vs West Coast [7d] (Optus)
Essendon [8d] vs Fremantle [8d] (MCG)
Fremantle [6d] vs Geelong [7d] (Optus)
GWS [7d] vs Fremantle [7d] (ENGIE Syd)
Fremantle [?] vs Port Adelaide [?] (Optus)
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I am still working out how you can have a bye before even playing a game.
What was it called, Opening round. we have come off the summer break, not played a real game, yet we get a bye!!!WTF?
Ten teams get a bye before playing a game.
Still bemused by it all.
And as for where we finish, I have no idea, but I am not afraid of any team we have to play between now and the end of season.
We were robbed of a victory in a home game against Carlton in Adelaide, Drew withthe flag favourites Collingwood after playing shizen housen footy.
Beat Brissie when they were another favourite. Crushed the Crows when they were still among those to beat.
Very unlucky against Port who are still among the favourites.Beat the Dog who are now in the running.
Lost to Sydney after a shocking 24 hours.Beat STK in Melbourne.
Obliterated Melbourne.
Bring em all on I say.
What was it called, Opening round. we have come off the summer break, not played a real game, yet we get a bye!!!WTF?
Ten teams get a bye before playing a game.
Still bemused by it all.
And as for where we finish, I have no idea, but I am not afraid of any team we have to play between now and the end of season.
We were robbed of a victory in a home game against Carlton in Adelaide, Drew withthe flag favourites Collingwood after playing shizen housen footy.
Beat Brissie when they were another favourite. Crushed the Crows when they were still among those to beat.
Very unlucky against Port who are still among the favourites.Beat the Dog who are now in the running.
Lost to Sydney after a shocking 24 hours.Beat STK in Melbourne.
Obliterated Melbourne.
Bring em all on I say.
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Cayman Docker
Team Captain
Great to see some photos of the guys having a beer and some R&R. I would think JL gets them all back in the house a little sooner than the last couple of years to take advantage of that momentum.
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just a four day break
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