Certified Legendary Thread Cam Rayner

[Chaisa]

I think he probably is a slow burn, but equally I think he's still a fair way behind the Petracca's and the Gray's were at a similar point in their careers. Really he has to have great 2023 to not go down as one of the worst #1 picks of all-time.

 

[HTPunter]

I just can't remember Martin, Petracca even De Gory missing Golden opportunities in such spectacular fashion as Rayner did last night.

For a poor shot on goal, he is far too hungry too. Obviously last night he was in a perfect position, but too often he sprays it from ridiculous spots on the field. His confidence vastly outweighs his skill.

You can give him time to boost his disposal numbers through fitness, even though they've always been shit, but there's no excuse for his average at AFL level skill. 5 years in the system, ACL or not, you're probably not going to have huge changes to your overall ball use ability.

His strengths (strength, marking, power) are so focused on, people don't focus on his weaknesses (fitness, skill).

And sick of the comparisons to elite mids who have racked up the ball from day dot even as unfit forwards playing small bursts of midfield and fading out in 2nd halves.

 

[adammania9]

I’m not comparing them, just saying that Petracca copped it pretty badly and Rayner is copping it from nuffies, like you.

Rayner will be a jet, not Petracca like, they are different players.

Year after year after year I read this and it boggles my mind as to why. There’s little to no evidence to suggest he’ll become a very good player

 

[La Dispute]

Still has time but I'm losing faith.

I do remember few on BigFooty writing off Petracca after a quiet game. Saints fans were fast to call him a dud.

The bloke I find more disappointing is Jarrod Berry.
Gets a heap of hype for his "big body" but footy isn't a body building contest
He's terrible. Can't find the footy. Poor skills. Slow. Lots of clangers. Fumbles.

Commentators love talking him up because he's "big".

Dermie is a classic example. Judges players on their physique more than whether they can actually play the game .

He’s got better each game this year.

Clearly still hampered by his dodgy shoulder and can’t do all things expected of him (overhead marking, attacking contests at full pelt) and he’s playing through pain each game.

Watching him closely, he has a pretty big tank and had a couple of end-to-end runs to become an option inside 50 and was ignored by his teammates. I’d expect him to be a bit further along 6 years in, but I don’t mind him as a footballer. High performance floor each week, pretty nice skills. Has at least a couple of gears to go up.

Recruiters definitely seem to cream themselves over tall mids who can play multiple roles, without assessing how successful they actually execute those roles. Kyle Langford is another who used to get the same treatment. I remember watching one of his championship games in his draft year and the commentators were amazed to see a tall midfielder pushing into defence to assist on transition.

If he was 5’11 no one would be at eyelid.

 

[theiaofseed]

If he was taken at pick 30, no one would care.

For a pick 1, he's a real let down. One of the poorer number 1 picks in recent memory.

In hindsight though, that draft was shit. Check out the top 20, there's a few in there but overall a lot of disappointments and you'd expect a bit more to look like more.

Been some real; shockers in the last decade Swallow, Patton, Boyd, McCartin

 

[nahnah]

He missed everything.

did the ball even go forward

 

[BringFevBack2021]

Been some real; shockers in the last decade Swallow, Patton, Boyd, McCartin

Best part about Swallow in 2010 is they effectively had three cracks at #1, ****ing them all
1. Swallow
2. Bennell
3. Day (he’s been okay at least)

 

[HairyO]

did the ball even go forward

Warnie would have been proud of that mystery ball.

 

[WillHayward]

He’s got better each game this year.

Clearly still hampered by his dodgy shoulder and can’t do all things expected of him (overhead marking, attacking contests at full pelt) and he’s playing through pain each game.

Watching him closely, he has a pretty big tank and had a couple of end-to-end runs to become an option inside 50 and was ignored by his teammates. I’d expect him to be a bit further along 6 years in, but I don’t mind him as a footballer. High performance floor each week, pretty nice skills. Has at least a couple of gears to go up.

Recruiters definitely seem to cream themselves over tall mids who can play multiple roles, without assessing how successful they actually execute those roles. Kyle Langford is another who used to get the same treatment. I remember watching one of his championship games in his draft year and the commentators were amazed to see a tall midfielder pushing into defence to assist on transition.

If he was 5’11 no one would be at eyelid.

Built like an Adonis

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

Difference I see between early Trac and Rayner is skill. Petracca could always do some magic things but looked like a silver back gorilla running around with no tank. He'd look on fire for half a game and just lumber around the other half.

I honestly struggle to name anything Rayner has to his game other than being built like an ox. Doesn't create with the ball, doesn't find it, doesn't really have good goal sense... I'd be shocked if he had any sort of Petracca type level up.

Best I could imagine is a Dunstan type who can win the ball a bit inside but hacks every kick forward and doesn't really provide more than a big body... but wish the kid all the best and hope he proves me wrong

 

[aussierulesrules]

Forget the Petracca comparisons IMO. At this stage he’s much more like a “poor man’s Jake Stringer

20

Jake Stringer

Age

30

Ht

192cm

Wt

92kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

12.9

3star

K

8.5

3star

HB

4.4

3star

M

3.3

3star

T

2.5

4star

G

1.8

5star

D

8.5

2star

K

7.0

3star

HB

1.5

1star

M

2.8

3star

T

3.8

4star

G

2.5

5star

D

7.2

2star

K

4.8

2star

HB

2.4

3star

M

2.6

3star

T

1.4

4star

G

1.4

5star

”.

 

[DocSholl]

From all reports was ready to explode into a midfield role just prior to his ACL injury

Was he though? He averaged less than 10 touches per game in the two seasons prior to his knee.

 

[fpm84]

Best part about Swallow in 2010 is they effectively had three cracks at #1, ******* them all
1. Swallow
2. Bennell
3. Day (he’s been okay at least)

tbf 2010 draft was a shocker.

Only real players of note that Gold Coast missed were Gaff, Heppell, Guthrie, Isaac Smith, Darling and Parker. Total of five AA nods between them.

Suns also picked up Prestia and Lynch, two of the better players of that draft, with another two first rounders.

 

[blueiris]

I think we would be hopeful of Rayner doing what Zac Bailey

33

Zac Bailey

Age

25

Ht

182cm

Wt

84kg

Pos.

M/F

Career

Season

Last 5

D

12.7

3star

K

6.9

3star

HB

5.9

4star

M

3.0

3star

T

2.2

4star

CL

0.9

3star

D

12.9

3star

K

7.3

3star

HB

5.6

3star

M

3.9

4star

T

2.4

3star

CL

0.7

3star

D

13.4

4star

K

6.6

3star

HB

6.8

5star

M

3.2

4star

T

2.8

5star

CL

0.6

3star

does he’s more likely to be our Martin Petracca type player

 

[00Stinger]

Time will tell. Petracca was a bit of a slow burn compared to where he is now. Good for his goal per game and bumping up to 20 disposals per game for a few seasons. Admittedly Rayner doesn't get anywhere that much ball, but be could still explode and become an A grader. Will be around 80 games at the end of the year so the time to arrive is getting close if he's ever going to do it.

The Petracca comparisions are unfair

Rayner doesn't find the ball & doesn't kick goals. Has the occasional flash of brilliance. He is in the same mold as a Jack Martin and that isn't an insult. But both players are good players that have their moments but have unfairly been pumped up

I reckon at best he ends up like a Shaun Higgins. Finally delivers on his promise for a few years as he gets towards 30




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[theiaofseed]

Time will tell. Petracca was a bit of a slow burn compared to where he is now. Good for his goal per game and bumping up to 20 disposals per game for a few seasons. Admittedly Rayner doesn't get anywhere that much ball, but be could still explode and become an A grader. Will be around 80 games at the end of the year so the time to arrive is getting close if he's ever going to do it.

Rayner is fit, Petracca was just too fat to play midfield.

 

[WillHayward]

Was he though? He averaged less than 10 touches per game in the two seasons prior to his knee.

"From all reports" is the same as "training the house down".

Absolutely meaningless.

My other favourite is about a small fwd who is "working on his tank" and "going to spend more time in the midfield".

Also almost never happens

 

[40porpoise]

As a crows supporter all I see is a slightly better Darcy Fogarty

32

Darcy Fogarty

Age

25

Ht

194cm

Wt

100kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

8.5

2star

K

5.7

2star

HB

2.8

2star

M

3.7

4star

T

1.7

4star

G

1.2

4star

D

6.3

1star

K

4.0

1star

HB

2.3

2star

M

3.0

3star

T

2.3

3star

G

1.0

4star

D

8.0

2star

K

5.4

2star

HB

2.6

3star

M

3.4

4star

T

2.6

4star

G

1.0

4star

lookalike. Big and powerful but can’t get near the ball.

 

[kreglze]

Best part about Swallow in 2010 is they effectively had three cracks at #1, ******* them all
1. Swallow
2. Bennell
3. Day (he’s been okay at least)

Day has been pretty poor. Swallow is 5x the player he is.

Not a Dave Swallow thread but he gets such a rough go. Never lived up to the #1 billing, but has won a club BnF in 2014, and averages 21 touches and over 4 tackles a game and an absolute warrior for the club through it dark times.

Just because he never gets any coverage people assume he is woeful.

 

[Schnitzengruben]

Some players you see the Brendan Bolton Green Shoots with in between a lot of crap but he's really yet to prove he's anything more than a lemon. Lions muffed that one.

 

[PTizzle]

We won't know this year. I've seen enough signs from him that I'm optimistic and I'm happy with the club for selecting him.

 

[adogsfan5]

Na still a wait and hold on Rayner. Coming off an ACL. New role. Give it till mid season to see if it clicks. By all reports he was flying over summer.

 

[danster168]

We won't know this year. I've seen enough signs from him that I'm optimistic and I'm happy with the club for selecting him.

How could you be? He was pick 1 in the 2017 draft and he went before: Andrew Brayshaw, Davies-Uniacke, Cerra, Naughton, Zac Bailey, Balta, Tim Kelly, Liam Ryan, Oscar Allen, Sam Taylor, Fritsch, Tom McCartin, Liam Baker (rookie draft), Mihocek (rookie draft), Starcevich, Wil Powell and Worpel who are all significantly better players. That's 17 players better without even blinking. But I also think Rayner is worse than Hunter Clark, Spargo, Switkowski, Miers, Petty, Ainsworth, Brent Daniels, Roarke Smith, Amartey, and Jack Higgins. So that's 27 players that are better.

So you took Rayner at 1, when if done now you could argue he'd be ranked around 28. Obviously this is as of right now.

 

[Some Idiot]

If he can build his tank he can be a player, but I'm not convinced that he's capable of building that AFL level endurance.

 

[PTizzle]

How could you be? He was pick 1 in the 2017 draft and he went before...

Those lists are fun to do with the benefit of hindsight (and you could do similar ones for a hell of a lot of high picks), but I'm talking about in terms of the information we had at the time. Hard to fault the selection.