Certified Legendary Thread Cam Rayner

[Meteoric Rise]

How could you be? He was pick 1 in the 2017 draft and he went before: Andrew Brayshaw, Davies-Uniacke, Cerra, Naughton, Zac Bailey, Balta, Tim Kelly, Liam Ryan, Oscar Allen, Sam Taylor, Fritsch, Tom McCartin, Liam Baker (rookie draft), Mihocek (rookie draft), Starcevich, Wil Powell and Worpel who are all significantly better players. That's 17 players better without even blinking. But I also think Rayner is worse than Hunter Clark, Spargo, Switkowski, Miers, Petty, Ainsworth, Brent Daniels, Roarke Smith, Amartey, and Jack Higgins. So that's 27 players that are better.

So you took Rayner at 1, when if done now you could argue he'd be ranked around 28. Obviously this is as of right now.

If all these players went on the open market right now, Cam Rayner would be valued a lot higher than 28th. More like about 10th I would think, at worst. If you put Cam Rayner in some of the roles those other players you listed play, half back for example, he would look a lot better than he does at present.

All we have seen of Rayner is his first 3 years out of the draft, which is no time to be judging players, and 4 games off an ACL, ditto.

The role the Lions will want him to play is the bull centre forward, so Martin, Petracca, deGoey, Stringer, Heeney, Taranto, Tarryn Thomas, Robbie Gray, are the prototype players who have done well in this type of role. A lot if not all of those players are brilliant kicks, whereas at this point Rayner doesn’t seem to be that. I thought he was looking well on the up before he did his knee. What finals he has played were in his first 3 years as an AFL player, but he got a goal in all 4 of those, and every final was against an eventual Grand Finalist, so there are no relatively soft ones in there.

Like others, would like to see his kicking develop, both in the field and at goal. But if he can do that I think he can be a strong AFL player in that prime role as a centre forward.

 

[LukeParkerno1]

If all these players went on the open market right now, Cam Rayner would be valued a lot higher than 28th. More like about 10th I would think, at worst. If you put Cam Rayner in some of the roles those other players you listed play, half back for example, he would look a lot better than he does at present.

All we have seen of Rayner is his first 3 years out of the draft, which is no time to be judging players, and 4 games off an ACL, ditto.

The role the Lions will want him to play is the bull centre forward, so Martin, Petracca, deGoey, Stringer, Heeney, Taranto, Tarryn Thomas, Robbie Gray, are the prototype players who have done well in this type of role. A lot if not all of those players are brilliant kicks, whereas at this point Rayner doesn’t seem to be that. I thought he was looking well on the up before he did his knee. What finals he has played were in his first 3 years as an AFL player, but he got a goal in all 4 of those, and every final was against an eventual Grand Finalist, so there are no relatively soft ones in there.

Like others, would like to see his kicking develop, both in the field and at goal. But if he can do that I think he can be a strong AFL player in that prime role as a centre forward.

Not sure anyone really improves their kicking. You either have it or you don't. Some players are fantastic at hiding their kicking issues, think Josh Kennedy for us as a prime example.

Not sure on Rayner, I didn't mind the pick, Lions weren't in a rebuild at the time and could afford to swing for the fences so to speak on Rayner. Brayshaw was always seen as the most solid pick, and Cerra whilst good had issues with retention and Freo saw that first hand.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

But seriously, can this horrible bust of a player request a trade to the Hawks please?

 

[Dazb86]

Has somehow escaped scrutiny

 

[Tasmanian saint]

Day has been pretty poor. Swallow is 5x the player he is.

Not a Dave Swallow thread but he gets such a rough go. Never lived up to the #1 billing, but has won a club BnF in 2014, and averages 21 touches and over 4 tackles a game and an absolute warrior for the club through it dark times.

Just because he never gets any coverage people assume he is woeful.

I think it just comes down to him being taken at pick 1 . if he got picked at 10 nobody would be saying anything the guy has had a pretty consistent career far from terrible he just doesn’t have the star factor a lot of the other pick ones have had.

 

[Tasmanian saint]

Not sure anyone really improves their kicking. You either have it or you don't. Some players are fantastic at hiding their kicking issues, think Josh Kennedy for us as a prime example.

Not sure on Rayner, I didn't mind the pick, Lions weren't in a rebuild at the time and could afford to swing for the fences so to speak on Rayner. Brayshaw was always seen as the most solid pick, and Cerra whilst good had issues with retention and Freo saw that first hand.

I think your kicking can be improved to a certain point both Fyfe and danger we’re both pretty ordinary kicks early in there careers

 

[LukeParkerno1]

I think your kicking can be improved to a certain point both Fyfe and danger we’re both pretty ordinary kicks early in there careers

Danger still is but knows how to play the game to his limitations. You just aren’t going from an average kick to a great one.

 

[Tasmanian saint]

Danger still is but knows how to play the game to his limitations. You just aren’t going from an average kick to a great one.

No but you can improve a bit jack Steele for us use to just bomb the ball forward and wasn’t great at hitting targets now his turned into one of our more reliable kicks so it can be done if they put the work in !

 

[LukeParkerno1]

No but you can improve a bit jack Steele for us use to just bomb the ball forward and wasn’t great at hitting targets now his turned into one of our more reliable kicks so it can be done if they put the work in !

Steele is fortunate to be an inside mid those blokes can get away with kicking limitations. Not sure your Rayner types can. As I said I got it at the time was a gamble hasn’t paid off happens. They did luck out getting McCluggage when Essendon took McGrath

 

[Heaps of fun]

Great impact player but not much a natural footballer.

 

[danster168]

If all these players went on the open market right now, Cam Rayner would be valued a lot higher than 28th. More like about 10th I would think, at worst. If you put Cam Rayner in some of the roles those other players you listed play, half back for example, he would look a lot better than he does at present.

All we have seen of Rayner is his first 3 years out of the draft, which is no time to be judging players, and 4 games off an ACL, ditto.

The role the Lions will want him to play is the bull centre forward, so Martin, Petracca, deGoey, Stringer, Heeney, Taranto, Tarryn Thomas, Robbie Gray, are the prototype players who have done well in this type of role. A lot if not all of those players are brilliant kicks, whereas at this point Rayner doesn’t seem to be that. I thought he was looking well on the up before he did his knee. What finals he has played were in his first 3 years as an AFL player, but he got a goal in all 4 of those, and every final was against an eventual Grand Finalist, so there are no relatively soft ones in there.

Like others, would like to see his kicking develop, both in the field and at goal. But if he can do that I think he can be a strong AFL player in that prime role as a centre forward.

You say 10 at worst...but which of the following names do you think Rayner would fetch more trade value? Andrew Brayshaw, Davies-Uniacke, Cerra, Naughton, Zac Bailey, Balta, Tim Kelly, Liam Ryan, Oscar Allen, Sam Taylor, Fritsch. There is 11 guys there that have actually shown to be good to great AFL players. So if it's 10 at worst, tell me which ones.

You say if he played a different role etc. then things would be different but I haven't seen anything from his game that shows he can play other positions. I haven't seen any defensive traits at all and I haven't seen good decision making or elite foot skills that a sweeper needs. I haven't even seen the burst from stoppage or elite hands or clearance work like a Tom Greene has etc.

He has basically shown next to 0 at afl level thus far. I wouldn't be drafting him in the top 25.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

You say 10 at worst...but which of the following names do you think Rayner would fetch more trade value? Andrew Brayshaw, Davies-Uniacke, Cerra, Naughton, Zac Bailey, Balta, Tim Kelly, Liam Ryan, Oscar Allen, Sam Taylor, Fritsch. There is 11 guys there that have actually shown to be good to great AFL players. So if it's 10 at worst, tell me which ones.

You say if he played a different role etc. then things would be different but I haven't seen anything from his game that shows he can play other positions. I haven't seen any defensive traits at all and I haven't seen good decision making or elite foot skills that a sweeper needs. I haven't even seen the burst from stoppage or elite hands or clearance work like a Tom Greene has etc.

He has basically shown next to 0 at afl level thus far. I wouldn't be drafting him in the top 25.

From that list, 22yo Rayner would have a higher trade value than:

25yo 188cm hybrid forward Bailey Fritsch.

192cm Key Forward Oscar Allen.

Rising 28yo Tim Kelly.

IMO. And it is yet to be determined where Rayner’s value ultimately sits in relation to the rest of that list, but I accept that right now probably all of those others would fetch a higher price on the market.

 

[HBFlanker]

If he was taken at pick 30, no one would care.

For a pick 1, he's a real let down. One of the poorer number 1 picks in recent memory.

In hindsight though, that draft was shit. Check out the top 20, there's a few in there but overall a lot of disappointments and you'd expect a bit more to look like more.

Interesting take

Brayshaw, Davies-Uniacke, Cerra, Naughton, Bailey, Balta, Ryan, Taylor, Fritsch all serious players taken in this draft

 

[LukeParkerno1]

From that list, 22yo Rayner would have a higher trade value than:

25yo 188cm hybrid forward Bailey Fritsch.

192cm Key Forward Oscar Allen.

Rising 28yo Tim Kelly.

IMO. And it is yet to be determined where Rayner’s value ultimately sits in relation to the rest of that list, but I accept that right now probably all of those would fetch a higher price on the market.

I'd be highly surprised if Allen who can play at either end is less than Rayner. Teams would give their left nut for Allen to be in their side, would be a 50 goal a year key forward or potentially a AA CHB. Kelly I agree and Fritch, though Fritch is borderline.

 

[danster168]

From that list, 22yo Rayner would have a higher trade value than:

25yo 188cm hybrid forward Bailey Fritsch.

192cm Key Forward Oscar Allen.

Rising 28yo Tim Kelly.

IMO. And it is yet to be determined where Rayner’s value ultimately sits in relation to the rest of that list, but I accept that right now probably all of those would fetch a higher price on the market.

Are you trolling? You realise Fritsch is already one of the best medium forwards in the league? He kicked 6 in a grand final and was very close to winning a norm smith medallist? And you're comparing hm to a guy that has showed nothing? Fritsch would fetch a first round pick and maybe a bit more.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

Are you trolling? You realise Fritsch is already one of the best medium forwards in the league? He kicked 6 in a grand final and was very close to winning a norm smith medallist? And you're comparing hm to a guy that has showed nothing? Fritsch would fetch a first round pick and maybe a bit more.

Rayner would definitely fetch a first round pick imo. Fritsch is a good player no doubt, but has had one good year and by the time he was Rayner’s age had done less than Rayner despite Rayner doing a knee. Fritsch is now set up to kick goals as the permanent deepest player in the strongest team in the AFL. You have to imagine him in Rayner’s role in the Lions team where the forward line functions quite differently. Or Rayner in Fritsch’s role.

I would hold your horses on condemning Rayner, as I said before, we have seen his first 3 seasons out of the draft plus 4 games off a knee. I thought he looked poised to become a very damaging player before doing his knee.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

I'd be highly surprised if Allen who can play at either end is less than Rayner. Teams would give their left nut for Allen to be in their side, would be a 50 goal a year key forward or potentially a AA CHB. Kelly I agree and Fritch, though Fritch is borderline.

I liked the little we saw of Allen in defence. But at 192cms he is not going to be able to contain the really big guys consistently, so he is more a second tall or intercept defender. As a forward I think he has been good but much tougher to judge as the way the Eagles play is designed to suit their tall forwards and he has been getting the 3rd tall defender there.

All these guys are good players, but certain players I think find themselves in roles that can flatter them a bit. The AFL clubs know this.

 

[LukeParkerno1]

I would hold your horses on condemning Rayner, as I said before, we have seen his first 3 seasons out of the draft plus 4 games off a knee. I thought he looked poised to become a very damaging player before doing his knee.

As what though? Doesn't get the ball to be a mid. So what's the role. Can't see him being consistent in a Toby Greene type role but that's the best bet. Seems overpaying for that type at pick 1. That happens though, they somehow were gifted McCluggage at pick 3.

 

[LukeParkerno1]

I liked the little we saw of Allen in defence. But at 192cms he is not going to be able to contain the really big guys consistently, so he is more a second tall or intercept defender. As a forward I think he has been good but much tougher to judge as the way the Eagles play is designed to suit their tall forwards and he has been getting the 3rd tall defender there.

All these guys are good players, but certain players I think find themselves in roles that can flatter them a bit. The AFL clubs know this.

No reason he can't be a McGovern type and these are worth a truckload. I see him as a key forward though, the games he's played as the key he's been very impressive.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

As what though? Doesn't get the ball to be a mid. So what's the role. Can't see him being consistent in a Toby Greene type role but that's the best bet. Seems overpaying for that type at pick 1. That happens though, they somehow were gifted McCluggage at pick 3.

He hasn’t played loads in the midfield, as you would expect from a player in his first 3 seasons who isn’t necessarily an endurance specialist. I think the Lions will start to push him into centre bounces when he is ready, in place of a guy like Lyons and maybe Rayner and Bailey will rotate through the midfield and forward. So I think Rayner will be fine as a centre forward, barring further injury calamaties of course.

I am not saying he is going to be the best number 1 pick or the best centre forward, but I don’t think he is going to be a Jack Watts number 1 pick, he should prove to be a very good player over time Rayner.

 

[danster168]

Rayner would definitely fetch a first round pick imo. Fritsch is a good player no doubt, but has had one good year and by the time he was Rayner’s age had done less than Rayner despite Rayner doing a knee. Fritsch is now set up to kick goals as the permanent deepest player in the strongest team in the AFL. You have to imagine him in Rayner’s role in the Lions team where the forward line functions quite differently. Or Rayner in Fritsch’s role.

I would hold your horses on condemning Rayner, as I said before, we have seen his first 3 seasons out of the draft plus 4 games off a knee. I thought he looked poised to become a very damaging player before doing his knee.

What on earth are you talking about? Like this is really strange. Fritsch has been a gun from day 1. Even his first season in the league was better than any season that Rayner has put together. In literally all key statistical markers. By a long way.

Bayley Fritsch and Cameron Rayner AFL Stats Comparison

Bayley Fritsch and Cameron Rayner AFL Stats Comparison.

www.footywire.com

like how can you compare Rayner who has done nothing in the AFL to one of the best players in the AFL? It's mind boggling.

Fritsch kicked 59 goals last year. LOL. Rayner hasn't even done more than Spargo.

Rayner wouldn't even make our 22. And nowhere near making it. He is well behind Spargo and Neal-Bullen.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

What on earth are you talking about? Like this is really strange. Fritsch has been a gun from day 1. Even his first season in the league was better than any season that Rayner has put together. In literally all key statistical markers. By a long way.

Bayley Fritsch and Cameron Rayner AFL Stats Comparison

Bayley Fritsch and Cameron Rayner AFL Stats Comparison.

www.footywire.com

like how can you compare Rayner who has done nothing in the AFL to one of the best players in the AFL? It's mind boggling.

Fritsch kicked 59 goals last year. LOL. Rayner hasn't even done more than Spargo.

Rayner wouldn't even make our 22. And nowhere near making it. He is well behind Spargo and Neal-Bullen.

You are comparing Fritsch from the age of 21 onwards with Rayner up to the age of 20yo, which is the age he was when he last played any footy from which we could fairly judge him, ie not straight off a knee.

In Rayner’s 3rd year as a 20yo, he was playing in the COVID affected reduced game time matches, so you also have to allow for that.

If you allow for expected improvement that most players find between the ages of 20 and 23, Rayner could be anything yet.

If you are simply judging forwards by goals kicked last year you would be saying Fritsch is more valuable than Aaron Naughton right now. But where teams would trade top 5 picks for Naughton without hesitating, Fritsch would I think be lucky to attract a pick in the late teens in a trade. Naughton would get offers of $900k+ where Fritsch would be doing well to get much more than $600k.

With Rayner though it is just too early to fairly judge him. I think he will be a significantly good player, it seems you don’t, happy to oppose you on that.

 

[danster168]

You are comparing Fritsch from the age of 21 onwards with Rayner up to the age of 20yo, which is the age he was when he last played any footy from which we could fairly judge him, ie not straight off a knee.

In Rayner’s 3rd year as a 20yo, he was playing in the COVID affected reduced game time matches, so you also have to allow for that.

If you allow for expected improvement that most players find between the ages of 20 and 23, Rayner could be anything yet.

If you are simply judging forwards by goals kicked last year you would be saying Fritsch is more valuable than Aaron Naughton right now. But where teams would trade top 5 picks for Naughton without hesitating, Fritsch would I think be lucky to attract a pick in the late teens in a trade. Naughton would get offers of $900k+ where Fritsch would be doing well to get much more than $600k.

With Rayner though it is just too early to fairly judge him. I think he will be a significantly good player, it seems you don’t, happy to oppose you on that.

No I'm not. Did you even open the link?. It's comparing Rayner now to Fritsch when he was Rayner's age.

Simply judging by 'goals'? Fritsch played in the backline the first couple of years of his career so if anything the goals stats avg are much lower than in reality.

Key forwards will always get more than medium forwards. Not sure why you're talking about Naughton. And to say Fritsch has only had '1 good year' is trivialising his 2021 season. It was one of the best mid forward seasons in the last decade and Rayner will never have a season that comes close.

I don't think Rayner has shown to be AFL standard yet so it's pretty disrespectful of you to claim that a guy who has already shown to be one of the AFL best players (he made the AA squad and after his finals series it was pretty obvious that he should've been AA) wouldn't receive more trade value. Fritsch would return around pick 10 in a trade. Rayner probably pick 25-30 and that's based solely on potential and not based on anything.

You need to back up what your saying. Tell me which season Fritsch did nothing. And tell me which season Rayner has ever come close to being better than Fritsch.

I'd say the only guy at Brisbane that would be compared to Fritsch is Charlie Cameron. Cameron is one of the best small forwards in the league. He and Fritsch are about the same standard. Both receive much more in trade value than Rayner. Yes Rayner is young. I'd give him until the end of next year before ruling him out officially of being nothing more than a fringe AFL player.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

No I'm not. Did you even open the link?. It's comparing Rayner now to Fritsch when he was Rayner's age.

Simply judging by 'goals'? Fritsch played in the backline the first couple of years of his career so if anything the goals stats avg are much lower than in reality.

Key forwards will always get more than medium forwards. Not sure why you're talking about Naughton. And to say Fritsch has only had '1 good year' is trivialising his 2021 season. It was one of the best mid forward seasons in the last decade and Rayner will never have a season that comes close.

I don't think Rayner has shown to be AFL standard yet so it's pretty disrespectful of you to claim that a guy who has already shown to be one of the AFL best players (he made the AA squad and after his finals series it was pretty obvious that he should've been AA) wouldn't receive more trade value. Fritsch would return around pick 10 in a trade. Rayner probably pick 25-30 and that's based solely on potential and not based on anything.

You need to back up what your saying. Tell me which season Fritsch did nothing. And tell me which season Rayner has ever come close to being better than Fritsch.

You are carrying on like a goose tbh. Comparing Rayner’s 4 games straight off a knee to Fritsch at the same age is not a reliable way to compare the overall value of the pair.

If Rayner had not been number one draft pick or done a knee his profile would just look like a very promising young player. Give the guy this year to get his confidence back, let’s start judging him over the next 3 years.

In answer to your closing question, my estimation that Rayner would have a greater current trade value than Fritsch is not based on their performances alone. If that was the way trade value was figured then Horne-Francis would be lucky to return a better pick than Jarryd Lyons. Will Phillips would be worth nothing and you would probably keep Luke Dunstan and delist Bailey Laurie. Trade value is partially reliant on perceived potential, something you seem to be missing in all your posts regarding Rayner.

Rayner played 4 finals, all against teams that won Preliminary Finals that season. He was 19 & 20 years of age in those games, 2 of which were COVID shortened games. He scored a goal in each game and got 2 goal assists. He cannot be that bad.

 

[iBeng]

What, we trading him like we did Schache for 2 second rounders or something?