Certified Legendary Thread Cam Rayner

[Toump Ass]

From that list, 22yo Rayner would have a higher trade value than:

25yo 188cm hybrid forward Bailey Fritsch.

Mate Fritsch kicked 6 goals in a grand final, no one has done that since Darren Fat Man Jarman.
Kicked over 50 "sausage" last year, not bad for a club that can't be ****ed kicking goals half the time and also has Big Benny Brown running around.

I wouldn't trade 20 Cam Raynor's for One Fritsch, madness to even consider it.

 

[Belnakor]

Day has been pretty poor. Swallow is 5x the player he is.

Not a Dave Swallow thread but he gets such a rough go. Never lived up to the #1 billing, but has won a club BnF in 2014, and averages 21 touches and over 4 tackles a game and an absolute warrior for the club through it dark times.

Just because he never gets any coverage people assume he is woeful.

I think it just comes down to him being taken at pick 1 . if he got picked at 10 nobody would be saying anything the guy has had a pretty consistent career far from terrible he just doesn’t have the star factor a lot of the other pick ones have had.

If you remember back to the time, it was considered that Swallow was considered the "safest" pick which was why he was taken at no.1. Since GC had a number of picks in the top 5 it was thought he would deal with it the best, which he did. He was already playing WAFL before he went into the AFL and looked good, just matured early.

Good average AFL footballer - nobody was picking him thinking he was the next judd. They wanted someone consistant and thats what they got.

 

[Belnakor]

In hindsight though, that draft was shit. Check out the top 20, there's a few in there but overall a lot of disappointments and you'd expect a bit more to look like more.

Mate the 2017 was actually really good. There have been plenty of worse drafts ie: the 2016 draft. Brayshaw, Cerra, Naughton, Stephenson, Tim Kelly, Liam Ryan etc.

 

[danster168]

You are carrying on like a goose tbh. Comparing Rayner’s 4 games straight off a knee to Fritsch at the same age is not a reliable way to compare the overall value of the pair.

If Rayner had not been number one draft pick or done a knee his profile would just look like a very promising young player. Give the guy this year to get his confidence back, let’s start judging him over the next 3 years.

In answer to your closing question, my estimation that Rayner would have a greater current trade value than Fritsch is not based on their performances alone. If that was the way trade value was figured then Horne-Francis would be lucky to return a better pick than Jarryd Lyons. Will Phillips would be worth nothing and you would probably keep Luke Dunstan and delist Bailey Laurie. Trade value is partially reliant on perceived potential, something you seem to be missing in all your posts regarding Rayner.

Rayner played 4 finals, all against teams that won Preliminary Finals that season. He was 19 & 20 years of age in those games, 2 of which were COVID shortened games. He scored a goal in each game and got 2 goal assists. He cannot be that bad.

Look I do agree with you in the sense of how trade value is created and age so if you watched Rayner as a junior and you saw things in his game that you're still holding on to then fair enough. But most people are banking on his potential solely because he was number 1 pick when in reality he hasn't shown to be AFL standard yet. I think if he was picked mid-draft I still don't think people would be saying that he is a very promising young player. I don't think I've seen anything yet that suggests he's afl standard. But you make it sound like Fritsch is a 28 year old, the guy is 25.

Jack Watts is a good example. Did we really need to give him until he was 25 to realise that he was never going to amount to anything? I think most people knew after 2 seasons that he wasn't going to be the next Riewoldt.

I think if Rayner showed ball-finding ability then I could maybe seem him making it in the league but we need to see something! You keep giving excuses for him. Lets look at the dees once more. Jake Bowey had 34 possessions in his 9th game 2 weeks ago and James Jordon had 27 touches last week. Both are young kids and have both produced something that shows they can play good footy. We really haven't seen anything yet to suggest that he isn't a bust.

 

[Snuffaluphagus]

Mate the 2017 was actually really good. There have been plenty of worse drafts ie: the 2016 draft. Brayshaw, Cerra, Naughton, Stephenson, Tim Kelly, Liam Ryan etc.

I'm not sure I'd be comparing it to the 2016 draft which has one of the deepest pools of talent in a long time but yeah, I dont think the 2017 draft is "shit"

Fritsch is also so far ahead of Rayner its not funny. I'd kill to have him in our side, he's exactly what we need as a medium forward. I'd actually argue they will effectively play the same role moving forward as well as I dont think Rayner is every making the transition to the midfield. Lets see if Rayner ever kicks 6 in a Granny or 50 goals in a year. I doubt it

 

[Belnakor]

Jack Watts is a good example. Did we really need to give him until he was 25 to realise that he was never going to amount to anything? I think most people knew after 2 seasons that he wasn't going to be the next Riewoldt.

tbh if you look at the top players in the competition 99% of them you knew they would be guns after 2 years. Persisting with people works if you want them to be a role player, but if a top pick isn't panning out after 2 years, its a bust. Raynor is a bust.

the only player i can think of who took awhile to get going was GAJ, and it wasn't like he was awful. Maybe some rucks like Gawn. None of the top line midfielders took 5 years to get going.

 

[aussierulesrules]

Rayner worth more on the open market than Oscar Allen

12

Oscar Allen

Age

25

Ht

196cm

Wt

96kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

9.8

2star

K

6.6

3star

HB

3.2

3star

M

3.8

4star

T

2.4

4star

G

1.1

4star

No current season stats available

D

8.6

3star

K

5.8

3star

HB

2.8

3star

M

3.8

4star

T

2.0

4star

G

1.2

4star

!? Or Fritsch?

I think I’ve read it all now!

 

[danster168]

Rayner worth more on the open market than Oscar Allen!? Or Fritsch?

I think I’ve read it all now!

Tell me about it. I found it so triggering to read such rubbish. lol

 

[Meteoric Rise]

tbh if you look at the top players in the competition 99% of them you knew they would be guns after 2 years. Persisting with people works if you want them to be a role player, but if a top pick isn't panning out after 2 years, its a bust. Raynor is a bust.

the only player i can think of who took awhile to get going was GAJ, and it wasn't like he was awful. Maybe some rucks like Gawn. None of the top line midfielders took 5 years to get going.

Loads of the best key position players and rucks take up to 6 years before they become anything like the dominant version of themselves. Look at Tim English right now.

I am a Richmond supporter so I can speak easily to our players.

Jayden Short won a B & F in a Premiership year. Was not fully established in the team until his 4th season, 2018.

Shai Bolton would be lucky to get past pick one if they re-did the 2016 draft now, but would definitely be top 5. He did not become a regular until his 3rd season, and also played VFL games in his 3rd and 4th seasons.

Dan Rioli is in our top few rated players so far this season but had at least half our board calling for his guts until he was given a change of role at 24 that allowed us to see how good he actually is.

Dylan Grimes, Bachar Houli proved fantastic players and especially in finals and won AA selection but each were not considered anywhere near that level until 6+ years into their careers.

Shane Edwards another AA selection who had people calling for his head throughout about the first half of his career.

Trent Cotchin won a Brownlow and skippered 3 flags, after two and three seasons he didn’t look like much at all.

If you were judging any of these double and triple flag players after your two seasons by the same standard you are holding Rayner too, they are busts, maybe Rioli aside, but with him you could almost say the opposite, his stocks were really high after two years then plummeted for a variety of reasons.

Loads of players don’t look like achieving anything significant in the early part of their careers and they don’t. But some do, and Rayner would be in a fairly high risk category to do that, pick 1, did a knee when he just looked to be improving strongly, some impact in 4 separate finals against the strongest opposition as a 19 and 20yo. Happy for you to declare him a bust right now. But I wouldn’t.

Other clubs.

Adelaide, Rory Laird just about their best player now, how dominant did he look like being in his first 2 years?

Essendon, Darcy Parish. Couldn't break out past averaging about 20 disposals in his first 5 seasons. Until he did, now averaging over 30. Peter Wright currently looking like a superstar in his 7th season after ranging between poor and ok for his first 6 seasons.

They were both top 10 picks.

We could go on. But while I agree Rayner hasn’t put an unequivocal case to say he will be a high class AFL player, there is equally very little evidence to say he cannot be. It is all to be told with him.

If we had an auction using draft picks right now, what pick would you be prepared to trade for him? I am happy to stick my neck out and say I would give up pick 10 for Cam Rayner, right here, right now.

 

[masai tu]

You are comparing Fritsch from the age of 21 onwards with Rayner up to the age of 20yo, which is the age he was when he last played any footy from which we could fairly judge him, ie not straight off a knee.

In Rayner’s 3rd year as a 20yo, he was playing in the COVID affected reduced game time matches, so you also have to allow for that.

If you allow for expected improvement that most players find between the ages of 20 and 23, Rayner could be anything yet.

If you are simply judging forwards by goals kicked last year you would be saying Fritsch is more valuable than Aaron Naughton right now. But where teams would trade top 5 picks for Naughton without hesitating, Fritsch would I think be lucky to attract a pick in the late teens in a trade. Naughton would get offers of $900k+ where Fritsch would be doing well to get much more than $600k.

With Rayner though it is just too early to fairly judge him. I think he will be a significantly good player, it seems you don’t, happy to oppose you on that.

Coming from a team who has had many questionable top picks, it’s very therapeutic for your good self, to admit that, “damn we stuffed that draft pick up”.

In a re-draft today, he would be 19+ in ranking.

Geez, at present he makes Dessie Hedland look like a good pick.

 

[Kappa]

tbh if you look at the top players in the competition 99% of them you knew they would be guns after 2 years. Persisting with people works if you want them to be a role player, but if a top pick isn't panning out after 2 years, its a bust. Raynor is a bust.

the only player i can think of who took awhile to get going was GAJ, and it wasn't like he was awful. Maybe some rucks like Gawn. None of the top line midfielders took 5 years to get going.

Ben Reid was a spud in his first 2 years then turned into an AA KPD

Dane Swan was also not much early on.

 

[masai tu]

Ben Reid was a spud in his first 2 years then turned into an AA KPD

Dane Swan was also not much early on.

Yep, Swan was useless, .... until his transformation as “Tatt Man”.

 

[Dazb86]

He's about as good as Laitham Vandemeer.

 

[Freomaniac]

Rayner worth more on the open market than Oscar Allen!? Or Fritsch?

I think I’ve read it all now!

Zac Dawson is worth a few 1st round picks lol

 

[RonnieRaven]

Are you trolling? You realise Fritsch is already one of the best medium forwards in the league? He kicked 6 in a grand final and was very close to winning a norm smith medallist? And you're comparing hm to a guy that has showed nothing? Fritsch would fetch a first round pick and maybe a bit more.

Shane Ellen kicked 5 nearly got a norm smith
Fritsch is a gun but his icing on the cake.
His value is not high because he couldn’t lead the line in a shit team.

 

[danster168]

Shane Ellen kicked 5 nearly got a norm smith
Fritsch is a gun but his icing on the cake.
His value is not high because he couldn’t lead the line in a shit team.

Fritsch was in the AA squad mate. not a one game wonder so not sure where the comparison comes from. You're kidding yourself if you don't think Fritsch isn't fetching a first rounder. He's only 25.

He's played good footy when we weren't a good team so not sure what your ideas are based on.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

Fritsch was in the AA squad mate. not a one game wonder so not sure where the comparison comes from. You're kidding yourself if you don't think Fritsch isn't fetching a first rounder. He's only 25.

He's played good footy when we weren't a good team so not sure what your ideas are based on.

What actual pick do you think Fritsch would attract in a trade, and what sort of contract would he be offered?

 

[danster168]

Loads of the best key position players and rucks take up to 6 years before they become anything like the dominant version of themselves. Look at Tim English right now.

I am a Richmond supporter so I can speak easily to our players.

Jayden Short won a B & F in a Premiership year. Was not fully established in the team until his 4th season, 2018.

Shai Bolton would be lucky to get past pick one if they re-did the 2016 draft now, but would definitely be top 5. He did not become a regular until his 3rd season, and also played VFL games in his 3rd and 4th seasons.

Dan Rioli is in our top few rated players so far this season but had at least half our board calling for his guts until he was given a change of role at 24 that allowed us to see how good he actually is.

Dylan Grims, Bachar Houli proved fantastic players and especially in finals and won AA selection but each were not considered anywhere near that level until 6+ years into their careers.

Shane Edwards another AA selection who had people calling for his head throughout about the first half of his career.

Trent Cotchin won a Brownlow and skippered 3 flags, after two and three seasons he didn’t look like much at all.

If you were judging any of these double and triple flag players after your two seasons by the same standard you are holding Rayner too, they are busts, maybe Rioli aside, but with him you could almost say the opposite, his stocks were really high after two years then plummeted for a variety of reasons.

Loads of players don’t look like achieving anything significant in the early part of their careers and they don’t. But some do, and Rayner would be in a fairly high risk category to do that, pick 1, did a knee when he just looked to be improving strongly, some impact in 4 separate finals against the strongest opposition as a 19 and 20yo. Happy for you to declare him a bust right now. But I wouldn’t.

Other clubs.

Adelaide, Rory Laird just about their best player now, how dominant did he look like being in his first 2 years?

Essendon, Darcy Parish. Could break out past averaging about 20 disposals in his first 5 seasons. Until he did, now averaging over 30. Peter Wright currently looking like a superstar in his 7th season after ranging between poor and ok for his first 6 seasons.

They were both top 10 picks.

We could go on. But while I agree Rayner hasn’t put an unequivocal case to say he will be a high class AFL player, there is equally very little evidence to say he cannot be. It is all to be told with him.

If we had an auction using draft picks right now, what pick would you be prepared to trade for him? I am happy to stick my neck out and say I would give up pick 10 for Cam Rayner, right here, right now.

Not a bad post by you. I think the players you mentioned are the exception to the rule. Nonetheless I agree with Parish, Wright and Grimes. The others I think actually showed promise pretty early on. At least passing the eye test. But why are you referring to only 2 seasons? Rayner is into his 4th season. He played 17 games in his 3rd season. So we've seen nothing in 3 basically full seasons and now 4 games into his 4th season. And for someone who was physically built to play AFL immediately as well as the general trend that AFL draftees are more ready than ever, I think the odds are stacked against him to become anything more than a fringe player.

Still unbelievable to compare him to a Fritsch or Oscar Allen.

 

[danster168]

What actual pick do you think Fritsch would attract in a trade, and what sort of contract would he be offered?

Around pick 10. and about 650-700k.
But Melb would be losing at pick 10. The odds of pick 10 being better than Fritsch is about 5% but that's the nature of when you lose a player.

 

[Dazb86]

Some people are really underrating Fritsch

 

[Sphynx]

Like many in here, I'm of the opinion he's been given a free ride with fans and the media for a number of years, despite the injury. The benefit of being a #1 pick in QLD really and the best player in the draft currently being over in Freo.

If this was a McCartin vs Petracca situation, I imagine he wouldn't be getting off anywhere near as easy had he been in Melbourne...

He's also been playing in a damn good side for a lot of his career, strangely for a #1 pick, the club turned a corner after he was drafted. He has had plenty of opportunities up forward with quite a lot of supply.

Look at JHF and Rachele as examples.

JHF was very much lauded as a similar, dynamic game breaking Fwd/Mid, he's shown in only 4 games 10x the midfield/clearance/contested ability of Rayner in 5 seasons.

Rachele has barely played football for 2 seasons and looks 10x the natural forward and can still find close to 18-20 touches a game moving through half forward. Rachele has quite a similar athletic profile tbh.

Fitness, game time, opportunity etc isn't really an excuse when you see these two come in and make an immediate impact as kids that are nowhere near the finished product from an endurance perspective.

Remembering Rayner was very much labelled "ready to go" when he was drafted.


I really think Rayner lacks footy IQ. He doesn't get into good possessions, can't find the ball up the ground and can't stay continuously involved up forward.

You can have the best athletic profile in the world, resemble Petracca, but if you don't know how to get the ball consistently or get into positions to kick goals, it means nothing really....

 

[Meteoric Rise]

Around pick 10. and about 650-700k.
But Melb would be losing at pick 10. The odds of pick 10 being better than Fritsch is about 5% but that's the nature of when you lose a player.

Fair enough. I think Fritsch would be worth slightly less than that but perhaps given the Adam Saad trade of pick 13(net value) and over $600kpa average contract, you might be just about right.

I suppose there are usually two distinct markets for a player at any given time. There is the contract price a top team - normally with a tight salary cap - will pay, and then there is the price a team like North Melbourne 2021, or Carlton 2020 will pay, the teams with more salary cap space. So Fritsch might attract a new contract around $550kpa at Melbourne and possibly as you say up to $650-700k if a club like North could get their hands on him. And that type of contract for a 25-26yo probably gets a pick around the 10-12 mark in a trade.

The last 15 pick 10’s to 2019 were:

Tom Green, Nick Blakey, Lochie O’Brien, Jack Bowes, Harry McKay, Nakia Cockatoo, Nathan Freeman, Joe Daniher, Liam Sumner, Daniel Gorringe, Jake Melksham, Phil Davis, Patrick Dangerfield, Nathan Brown(the Collingwood version), Marcus Drum.

Of the 15, Sumner, Gorringe, Drum as far as I know had every chance and didn’t make it. O’Brien for now doesn’t look great but is getting a game.

Freeman, Cockatoo have been severely impacted by injuries though Cockatoo is now playing well at Brisbane. This could equally happen to a player you acquire in a trade.

Brown, Melksham had solid enough AFL careers without becoming gun players.

Bowes, Blakey, look like being really good AFL footballers.

Green, McKay, Daniher, Dangerfield and possibly Davis all are or were or should be marquee contract types above the value of Fritsch. I think this shows your 5% chance of pick 10 being worth more than Fritsch is a bit out. More like a 33% chance at least.

So of the 15 you probably have 5 marquee contract types, 2 tracking as 6-12 ranked type players in a decent team - about where Fritsch sits imo, 2-3 others just below that, and probably 5 who never amounted to much.

Fritsch appears to be signed to a 5 year contract at Melbourne to run to about age 30, so they clearly rate him as a very important player.

If a team acquired Fritsch in the next off season, they get a ready made 26yo, but against that he will have already spent two of his approximately 6 prime years as an AFL player, so this might reduce his trade value a little from where he sits amongst all the last 15 pick 10’s, which I would say is slightly above the median, suggesting he might have been a reasonable pick 8 or so in his draft year. The lesser performed Rayner has all of his prime years ahead of him. And he is getting close to entering that period. He gets a year or two now where we will get a clearer indication of his worth. Fritsch as a 22yo wouldn’t have attracted a first round pick in a trade, whereas I think Rayner almost certainly would.

But, we shall see.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

Not a bad post by you. I think the players you mentioned are the exception to the rule. Nonetheless I agree with Parish, Wright and Grimes. The others I think actually showed promise pretty early on. At least passing the eye test. But why are you referring to only 2 seasons? Rayner is into his 4th season. He played 17 games in his 3rd season. So we've seen nothing in 3 basically full seasons and now 4 games into his 4th season. And for someone who was physically built to play AFL immediately as well as the general trend that AFL draftees are more ready than ever, I think the odds are stacked against him to become anything more than a fringe player.

Still unbelievable to compare him to a Fritsch or Oscar Allen.

I was referring to two seasons as it was the benchmark set in the post to which I was replying. The poster said you can tell the top players will be really good within their first two seasons, or words to that effect.

If you say those players showed promise pretty early on, would they have won selection in a top 4 team in finals as 19-20yo’s? Would they have outperformed Rayner in those finals games all against PF winning teams?

I think you are just holding a guy who is tracking fine in a peripheral role to too high a standard.

Fritsch and Oscar Allen are very good players, but their roles I believe have flattered them slightly. Whereas the Rayner role in the Brisbane team probably does him no favours when being judged on a kicks marks handballs goals basis.

 

[Belnakor]

Trent Cotchin won a Brownlow and skippered 3 flags, after two and three seasons he didn’t look like much at all.

Cotchin came third in his rising star year, was clearly absolute silk lol.

All the guys you mention averaged 20 positions and moved to 30. Rayner we are looking at him starting at like 10-15 which is so much lower.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

Cotchin came third in his rising star year, was clearly absolute silk lol.

All the guys you mention averaged 20 positions and moved to 30. Rayner we are looking at him starting at like 10-15 which is so much lower.

Not exactly a star studded field is it, he was miles from a very average winner, and beat nobody of note.

All those other players I mentioned didn’t “average 20 positions(sic)” in their first 2-3 years at all. Rayner plays a role that is low possession. So his 10-15 possession average in his first 3 seasons is not some big black mark. The one to compare Rayner to is Zac Bailey, who played a similar role in the same team at the same time. Bailey’s disposals and goals were roughly comparable to Rayner’s in his first 3 seasons, though Rayner had more impact in the finals they played.

In 2021, their 4th seasons, Rayner did his knee and Bailey became a star. You look at their records in their first 3 years and tell me why you could see Bailey was going to be a star, and Rayner not?

The truth is they were both given time in the small forward role to develop physically and in other ways. When it came time to hit the go button, Rayner did his knee, it was as simple as that. I firmly believe had he not done his knee then he would have followed a similar trajectory to that of Bailey.