Certified Legendary Thread Cam Rayner

[demondavey]

There is a window of him going to the midfield permanently when Neale starts slowing down. If he ups the endurance side even by 25%, he'll be a beast through the middle as his other traits like hard to tackle and able to create play will be a great fit.

This Rayner transition to midfield would've been forced on him already if Dunkley didn't arrive. but the other aspect is we may not even use it if Ashcroft brothers take over in the middle.

‘Even by 25%’

That’s a lot.

 

[demondavey]

Don’t melb vfl have a bye this week so spargo won’t even play this week

Spargo wasn’t drafted with pick one. And Spargo already has a premiership.

Jog on….

 

[faible]

Devil's advocate...

When clubs select a Pick 1, if you remove the multiple premierships hypothetical part of your post - would that be what they hope for?

Simply a decent 250 game player?


Obviously if they win some flags, then that changes things. But just being a decent 250 gamer in a decent team isn't really hitting the jackpot, is it?

Or maybe it is? I mean it could be worse.

But as devil's advocate, I'd say it's a bit disappointing. Maybe for a top 10-20 pick that would be a big win. But for a number 1 guy, you're surely expecting flags, Captaincy, awards etc.?

I reckon when a club uses Pick 1 on someone, the minimum expectation is that at some point in their career, they're in the conversation of the 'best player in the game'.

Clubs largely play it safe with Pick 1 these days, and that rarely results in the best player in the game.

Generally if you’ve got pick 1 it’s because you’re a bit shit, so you need a guaranteed 250 gamer more than you need the boom or bust superstar that you take a punt on.

 

[jonnobackpocket]

8 touches is bad.
Gary Rohan averages about that many touches but he kicks goals.

Rayner's shaping up as one of the worst no.1 draft picks of all time.

How courageous to sit of off your post until he has a bad game and then come back and have a crack. 8 disposals,sheesh, yes that Rohans AVERAGE, so Rayners worse game for the year is just a standard Gary Rohan game. What do you collect? Be something disturbing like your mums hair that cloggs up in the shower I imagine.

 

[Toump Ass]

What a pea-heart.

 

[mpal6]

‘Even by 25%’

That’s a lot.

Depends on where you start as well. Cam always had questions on endurance and ran a poor 3k even prior to draft. Haven't seen him making meaningful headway in this area yet.

 

[HTPunter]

Depends on where you start as well. Cam always had questions on endurance and ran a poor 3k even prior to draft. Haven't seen him making meaningful headway in this area yet.

5 seasons in, you can’t “magically” drum up huge improvements in endurance. If he’s always had poor endurance and still does, while having a big powerful burst frame, guess what…

 

[HTPunter]

I don’t see much nous in his game. Everything he does is power and athleticism based. Which is top level. But it will limit him from being a top tier echelon player in his career.

Additionally though, not many players are Pendlebury like in their consistency. Rayner had a bad game last night. Yes. So what? The week by week takes are ridiculous.
Swans are gone. Swans are back!
Blues are gone. Blues are back!
Jamarra is shit. Jamarra is on track to be the number 1 player in the comp!

Rayner is a decent player still improving and still developing a bigger role within the team. Brayshaw & LDU aren’t helping their teams win games this year, while this is the first season Cerra has truly taken games by the scruff of the neck. He’s going a lot better than Dow, Clark, Stephenson & Coffield.

 

[mpal6]

5 seasons in, you can’t “magically” drum up huge improvements in endurance. If he’s always had poor endurance and still does, while having a big powerful burst frame, guess what…

He has a ACL year in the middle of all that. As a supporter I think he hasn't had a clear midfield role yet where building endurance would've become a factor. Closest he came to completing midfield transition was the year he did ACL in 2021. All preseason he trained in the middle pairing up with Neale and then did his knee. When he came back in 2022 he was left in his usual medium forward role. We were screaming for a big bull in the middle but side step and change of direction post-ACL would've been too risky, I can understand why the club took the conservative option. 2023 we now have Dunkley whose taken over.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

I think people need to wait to see what happens in the finals series. That will start to define how good this bloke really is, and how well his part of the ground functions for the Lions. He is always going to be worth more than his simple statistics show due to his ability to crash packs and the manner in which he wins his contests.

Sometimes things click for players when they get just the right role to maximise their strengths and just the right players around them to take advantage of their strengths. Rayner has come through a draft where it now looks like the best value picks were the key position players...

9 Naughton
12 Fogarty
21 Allen
25 Balta
28 Sam Taylor
33 T McCartin
37 Petty
42 Ballard
54 Payne
63 Miller
66 Zerk
72 Xerri
+ rookie draft Mihocek* & Amartey

That's 14 tall players that all look at least pretty good value right now at their picks. Some like Naughton, Taylor maybe Balta look huge value picks.

Versus the non key players who are doing well:

1 Rayner
2 Brayshaw
4 Uniacke
5 Cerra
6 Stephenson
7 Clark
15 Bailey
16 Richards
17 Higgins
18 Starcevich
19 Powell
24 Kelly*
26 Ryan*
27 Daniels
31 Fritsch*
45 Worpel
51 Farrell
67 Moore
73 Switkowski
+ rookie Liam Baker

7

Liam Baker

Age

26

Ht

173cm

Wt

72kg

Pos.

D/F

Career

Season

Last 5

D

15.7

4star

K

7.8

3star

HB

7.9

5star

M

3.2

3star

T

2.6

4star

MG

222.2

3star

D

14.6

4star

K

6.8

3star

HB

7.9

4star

M

3.8

4star

T

1.8

3star

MG

191.9

3star

D

14.4

4star

K

6.2

3star

HB

8.2

5star

M

1.6

2star

T

1.8

4star

MG

224.2

4star

*

*mature recruits

I have bolded the players who I think have so far indicated AA level ability in their positions. You are not using pick 1 on a mature recruit, period. Neither would you use it on a half back in Richards. So you are down to needing to pick Andrew Brayshaw

8

Andrew Brayshaw

Age

25

Ht

185cm

Wt

88kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

16.8

4star

K

7.6

3star

HB

9.3

5star

M

2.6

3star

T

4.8

5star

CL

2.1

4star

D

18.4

4star

K

7.6

3star

HB

10.8

5star

M

3.3

3star

T

4.8

5star

CL

3.1

4star

D

12.6

4star

K

6.0

3star

HB

6.6

4star

M

2.6

3star

T

4.0

5star

CL

0.8

3star

to get the one midfielder who has so far shown a level of ability you would be seeking with pick 1.

The other choice was to go tall, where it turns out there were some great options. But in 2017 we had just been through the P McCartin, J Schache, T Boyd, J Patton phase tall players being taken with picks 1 or 2. And I think clubs were very gun shy about the taller players, thus some of these great value tall guys slipping so much in the 2017 draft.

All the rest to this point, maybe apart from Uniacke and Cerra, I don't think would be causing Brisbane any great regret about not taking them at pick 1.

 

[GoEaglesGoSGIO]

He has to leave Brisbane

Pigeon-holed into a role that doesnt suit him.

If im Rayner id be pushing for a move to Essendon or North Melbourne.

 

[My Tilly]

8 disposals,sheesh,

So you still believe he can turn his career around and become more than an average 14 disposals & 1 goal per game forward?

 

[TheUnicorn]

Slightly above average player at best. you can’t always get top pick right, just look at Essendon.

 

[Milux]

8 touches is bad.
Gary Rohan averages about that many touches but he kicks goals.

Rayner's shaping up as one of the worst no.1 draft picks of all time.

Oh please. It's not that dire. He had a shocker in a game that should suit him. But it's not the end of the road for him.

 

[Milux]

‘Even by 25%’

That’s a lot.

Yeh 25% would be massive. Realistically it's probably 5%. Even that would be a massive ask.

 

[danster168]

@

I think people need to wait to see what happens in the finals series. That will start to define how good this bloke really is, and how well his part of the ground functions for the Lions. He is always going to be worth more than his simple statistics show due to his ability to crash packs and the manner in which he wins his contests.

Sometimes things click for players when they get just the right role to maximise their strengths and just the right players around them to take advantage of their strengths. Rayner has come through a draft where it now looks like the best value picks were the key position players...

9 Naughton
12 Fogarty
21 Allen
25 Balta
28 Sam Taylor
33 T McCartin
37 Petty
42 Ballard
54 Payne
63 Miller
66 Zerk
72 Xerri
+ rookie draft Mihocek* & Amartey

That's 14 tall players that all look at least pretty good value right now at their picks. Some like Naughton, Taylor maybe Balta look huge value picks.

Versus the non key players who are doing well:

1 Rayner
2 Brayshaw
4 Uniacke
5 Cerra
6 Stephenson
7 Clark
15 Bailey
16 Richards
17 Higgins
18 Starcevich
19 Powell
24 Kelly*
26 Ryan*
27 Daniels
31 Fritsch*
45 Worpel
51 Farrell
67 Moore
73 Switkowski
+ rookie Liam Baker*

*mature recruits

I have bolded the players who I think have so far indicated AA level ability in their positions. You are not using pick 1 on a mature recruit, period. Neither would you use it on a half back in Richards. So you are down to needing to pick Andrew Brayshaw to get the one midfielder who has so far shown a level of ability you would be seeking with pick 1.

The other choice was to go tall, where it turns out there were some great options. But in 2017 we had just been through the P McCartin, J Schache, T Boyd, J Patton phase tall players being taken with picks 1 or 2. And I think clubs were very gun shy about the taller players, thus some of these great value tall guys slipping so much in the 2017 draft.

All the rest to this point, maybe apart from Uniacke and Cerra, I don't think would be causing Brisbane any great regret about not taking them at pick 1.

Hello old friend. Look I won't kick a man when he's down because I appreciate the research and we've had our backwards and forwards but you must be disappointed in his 2023?

I still maintain that he's about the 25-30th best player in this draft. You continually look at potential but never look at the continual spud games/years that he plays. Another wasted year of nothingness that diminishes his total value if the draft was to be done again. He's going to be in his 7th year next year and still hasn't done much at afl level.

If he kicks 6 in a final or maybe averages 4 goals across a finals series then he can right some of the wrongs. But a cameo Tom Boyd type goal or 2 isn't going to move the needle.

 

[TW Sherrin]

Dude is a drifter and rarely changes a game. He's underachieved.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

@

Hello old friend. Look I won't kick a man when he's down because I appreciate the research and we've had our backwards and forwards but you must be disappointed in his 2023?

I still maintain that he's about the 25-30th best player in this draft. You continually look at potential but never look at the continual spud games/years that he plays. Another wasted year of nothingness that diminishes his total value if the draft was to be done again. He's going to be in his 7th year next year and still hasn't done much at afl level.

If he kicks 6 in a final or maybe averages 4 goals across a finals series then he can right some of the wrongs. But a cameo Tom Boyd type goal or 2 isn't going to move the needle.

Yes Danster, not watched so much footy this season, but Rayner has not kicked on to the level I expected. At least not yet. But he is definitely a player you want in your team if offered for what I presume his salary would be, maybe $450k. It is becoming more clear now this draft, and it actually looks quite deep but not with so much outstanding high end talent. Lots and lots of very good players rather than all timers.

I'm sticking with Rayner, to me he is too good a player not to eventually have a very telling impact somewhere along the line. He doesn't look like threatening being the best player in the game at any point though. I'm still happy to take Cam Rayner for a pick around 10 in an average draft. 25-30 is too low for him, but that 2017 draft still has some fairly significant players around that 25-30 level if you re-drafted it. I just think it is a lot easier to find another Will Powell, or Jack Higgins or Starcevich than it is to find a player who can do what Rayner can do.

I will be more comfortable making a judgement after the finals this season.

 

[danster168]

Yes Danster, not watched so much footy this season, but Rayner has not kicked on to the level I expected. At least not yet. But he is definitely a player you want in your team if offered for what I presume his salary would be, maybe $450k. It is becoming more clear now this draft, and it actually looks quite deep but not with so much outstanding high end talent. Lots and lots of very good players rather than all timers.

I'm sticking with Rayner, to me he is too good a player not to eventually have a very telling impact somewhere along the line. He doesn't look like threatening being the best player in the game at any point though. I'm still happy to take Cam Rayner for a pick around 10 in an average draft. 25-30 is too low for him, but that 2017 draft still has some fairly significant players around that 25-30 level if you re-drafted it. I just think it is a lot easier to find another Will Powell, or Jack Higgins or Starcevich than it is to find a player who can do what Rayner can do.

I will be more comfortable making a judgement after the finals this season.

I agree that Rayner's physical attributes is what causes so much hype alongside his number 1 pick status but he just can't find the ball.

 

[Dazb86]

Richards has him well covered now

 

[schmuttt]

One of the worst #1 picks in recent history. It isn't like hes a victim of poor development either, every year except his first year he has played in a good side and the Lions have developed other guys who have gone past him.

 

[danster168]

I couldn't have been any more accurate in my assessment of Rayner going into this season.

A bust of a first round pick, let alone a pick 1. It was a very good good draft too.

 

[Toump Ass]

Hi friends, just popping in to hang shit on Cameron Rayner

16

Cameron Rayner

Age

25

Ht

186cm

Wt

93kg

Pos.

M/F

Career

Season

Last 5

D

11.4

3star

K

6.2

2star

HB

5.2

4star

M

3.0

3star

T

2.4

4star

CL

1.3

3star

D

11.3

3star

K

5.8

2star

HB

5.5

3star

M

3.1

3star

T

3.0

4star

CL

1.8

4star

D

10.8

3star

K

6.4

3star

HB

4.4

4star

M

2.4

3star

T

2.2

4star

CL

0.4

3star

!

Potato Number 1 Pick. Not even fit to shine Jack Watts' boots.

 

[Heeney2Franklin]

Hi friends, just popping in to hang s**t on Cameron Rayner!

Potato Number 1 Pick. Not even fit to shine Jack Watts' boots.

Acts like a flog as well without having achieved anything as a footballer.

 

[danster168]

Balanced analyser- suggests Spargo is as good as Rayner. How does someone so balanced get s$&t so wrong, Rayner going to make you look even more stupid by the end of the year.

Rayner proved me right. I know my stuff.