Opinion Can Dustin Martin be the GOAT? (Answer: no)

[Mr Meow]

Dusty couldn’t have done what he did without a strong supporting cast. As an attacking half forward, he relied on Cotchin covering him defensively a lot. When Richmond were a more mediocre team, Dusty did not put them on his back and carry them to gutsy wins in the H&A, like I’ve seen Greene and GAJ (GC) do. So you’re right to say that he needs that support cast.

However, as I just said to Fadge, the things that Dusty did in a few finals, no other player in the league could have done. He absolutely needed a great defensive team, but none of those defenders did anything unique; their roles, including in finals, all could have been filled by numerous other players in the league. Ditto the mids and forwards.

That’s why Dusty was the match winner, even though obviously he needed other players around him to win

I take your point to a degree but that still really undersells those defenders. Either the tactical plan and set up was immaculate (so Hardwick needs more praise) or the individual defenders were brilliant AND had tremendous chemistry. I favour a little of both. Teams simply couldn't score against them in finals, especially in second halves. I know Geelong's defence in those years wasn't nearly as capable and it was probably still a top 4 level defence.

Defenders rarely get credit though, so it's hardly anything new. Houli would've needed 40 disposals and 16 rebound 50s to win a NS. But even a lot of Richmond midfielders never got a look in for praise. Take Prestia and Edwards out for two underperformers and I can't see Richmond winning 3 flags.

 

[Mr Meow]

Have you?

I have asked for an explanation of your rating system. To be told the various weightings of each component and how they interact with each other. An acknowledgment of what you perceive to be its strengths and weaknesses.

You come back with it my rating system, it's not authoritative, get your own rating system. So basically it sounds like a whole lot of bullshit that deserves no credence being given to it.

It's difficult to compare 2016-current finals matches with those earlier, as one of the main reference points (albeit imperfect) - coaches votes - didn't exist for finals. Neither did score involvements before 2012.

If you lead CPs, inside 50s, clearances, disposals etc but have less than 3 goals/assists combined you are deemed "ineffectual" despite these types of games dominating regular season Brownlow and Coaches votes.

So no matter the system, it will never be perfect. 2017 to 2019 finals comparisons for instance are a lot easier.

Watch Ablett's 2007-2010 finals as a whole (12 data points) and besides maybe 2 games you are left puzzled at claims he was not a stellar, close to BOG performer for most. Check the stats cheeks and it's similar, albeit his SIs were not recorded and coaches votes not allocated.

The same applies to many champions of the pre 2016 era. It does make it seem as though the league was created 7 years ago, at times.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

I've already explained that this is arbitrary as opposed to prescriptive, given the variation in the number of finals played in given seasons, and can be seen from the Pendlebury v. Martin table. Using Martin's 2019 as an example.

I rated the games in this order:
1. Pendlebury 2011 Qualifying Final - was immense, with Swan, getting Collingwood over the line in a hard fought Final.
2. Martin 2019 Qualifying Final - 6 goals was great scoreboard pressure when his opponent couldn't hit the side of a barn.
3. Pendlebury 2011 Grand Final - Collingwood's best player in an epic Grand Final against the greatest team I have seen.
4. Martin 2019 Grand Final - Great game, though one of many great performances in a team who didn't have too much in the way of opposition that day.
5. Pendlebury 2011 Preliminary Final
6. Martin 2019 Preliminary Final

But again, it really is rats and mice we are getting down to here. You have an unhealthy Obsession with another person's opinion.

So in coming up with your ratings of one player's season versus the other you don't weight the finals performances specifically, you just make an arbitrary judgement based on your own whim? That explains a lot Fadge. So to clarify, if it is your whim to rate Pendlebury's 2013 season above Martin's 2019 season despite Martin's hugely superior finals impact - leading to a Richmond Premiership, then there was nothing built into in your ratings system to regulate that, you just went ahead and did it? I think we understand now. Your ratings system is no system at all, just a sham facade to allow you to say what you wish was true.

And then we get to your reasons for rating Pendlebury's 2011 zero goal or goal assist impact finals series above Martin's 15 goals + goal assist, Norm Smith winning, Ayres Medal winning, Premiership causing 2019 masterclass. Those reasons amount to:

- Pendlebury was immense in the QF where Martin merely took advantage of Brisbane not being able to hit the side of a barn

- Pendlebury was his team's best player in a losing Grand Final where his team was walloped, recording zero goals and zero goal assists meanwhile the opposition mids and mid-forwards(as defined by who got multiple clearances) racked up about 18 goals and assists between them. Whereas Martin's max 15 Norm Smith vote, max 10 Coaches vote, highest player rating 6 goals + assists versus the opposition TEAM's 3 goals total was somehow inferior to that, because it caused Richmond to win by too much.

Well we gave you the opportunity and those were the reasons you gave. Let that be understood by all.

Just don't ever again refer to your own table as if it is any sort of authority, claiming you have shown Pendlebury has had x of the best y seasons he and Martin have played.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

Your comments, which I'm sure you're now going to attempt to twist because you've been caught out peddling bullshit.

Most people would be tempted to think that where you play an interstate away Qualifying Final against a team that finished above you on the home and away ladder, and the opposition team scores 8 goals 17 behinds, that this would make your 6 goals 0 behinds and an assist even more meritorious. But not Fadge

This is especially so when you look at the package of those 6 goals, all contest wins, clearance sharks or ground ball gets, not one easy receive, not one miss:

 

[Mr Meow]

So in coming up with your ratings of one player's season versus the other you don't weight the finals performances specifically, you just make an arbitrary judgement based on your own whim? That explains a lot Fadge. So to clarify, if it is your whim to rate Pendlebury's 2013 season above Martin's 2019 season despite Martin's hugely superior finals impact - leading to a Richmond Premiership, then there was nothing built into in your ratings system to regulate that, you just went ahead and did it? I think we understand now. Your ratings system is no system at all, just a sham facade to allow you to say what you wish was true.

And then we get to your reasons for rating Pendlebury's 2011 zero goal or goal assist impact finals series above Martin's 15 goals + goal assist, Norm Smith winning, Ayres Medal winning, Premiership causing 2019 masterclass. Those reasons amount to:

- Pendlebury was immense in the QF where Martin merely took advantage of Brisbane not being able to hit the side of a barn

- Pendlebury was his team's best player in a losing Grand Final where his team was walloped, recording zero goals and zero goal assists meanwhile the opposition mids and mid-forwards(as defined by who got multiple clearances) racked up about 18 goals and assists between them. Whereas Martin's max 15 Norm Smith vote, max 10 Coaches vote, highest player rating 6 goals + assists versus the opposition TEAM's 3 goals total was somehow inferior to that, because it caused Richmond to win by too much.

Well we gave you the opportunity and those were the reasons you gave. Let that be understood by all.

Just don't ever again refer to your own table as if it is any sort of authority, claiming you have shown Pendlebury has had x of the best y seasons he and Martin have played.

I could feel you seething as Pendlebury's goal went in to cap off what was otherwise already an influential grand final by the elder statesman.

On the day he - the oldest guy on the field - was a lazy:

-4th for disposals
-3rd for clearances
-8th for tackles
-5th for inside 50s
-6th for score involvements
-7th for contested possessions
-6th for Fantasy Points
-Listed in Collingwood's best players
-One of Collingwood's main men to hold the fort with calm possessions and presentation late

No, from his defensive side of stoppage position he didn't kick 5 million goals and assists. But like Dangerfield and Selwood last year, the veterans Pendlebury and Sidebottom were big players in a well deserved grand final victory. Don't they turn 50 next week? Nobody told them!

 

[Noidnadroj]

Indeed he had one outstanding year. That is not up for debate.

But you match Martin up against any of the contemporary greats, and he falls short in comparison.

I have previously used Pendlebury as an example. Between the two players, Pendlebury has:
3 of the best 5 seasons;
7 of the best 12 seasons;
9 of the best 15 seasons;
12 of the best 20 seasons;
16 of the best 25 seasons.

The trend is the same for a number of greats who have debuted since the turn of the century, even more pronounced for the likes of
GAJ
Franklin
Judd

With the following players you'd find have similar positive records to Pendlebury:
N. Riewoldt
Pavlich
Dangerfield
J. Selwood
Hodge
Fyfe
Mitchell
Scarlett
With recent additions Neale and Bontempelli.

Martin on the same rung as the likes of Cripps, Gawn, Swan, Bartel and Enright. With Oliver and Petracca closing.

Danger averages 2.4 coaches votes in finals and Martin averages 6.02… but Danger is rated higher.

Across their entire career Martin also averages more possessions per game AND more goals than Danger.

Fadgelogic ratings might need some tinkering.


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[STPer18]

Ian "Bobby" Hill for GOAT. Four goals in a GF decided by four points - apply the relevant weighting, multiply it by the integer and there's no disputing it!

 

[Proud New Father of 3]

Dusty at his best reminds me of Ian "Bobby" Hill

 

[Noidnadroj]

See, this is reasonable - 3 finals games where Martin was highly influential.

Though I assert if it wasn't for Nankervis taking those handful of intercept marks in the Richmond backline in the last quarter of the 2020 Preliminary Final against Port, Richmond lose that game and Martin is therefore not the 'matchwinner'.

In Richmond 3 x Premiership campaigns Martin receive 71 x coaches votes in 10 x games. In 3 x Grand Finals he received 28 of a possible 30 NS votes. He had 20+ possessions and 2+ goals in ALL 6 of the PF and GF games. He kicked 24 goals and 8 behinds, with not a single goal from a free kick.

You can do whatever somersaults you like to downplay that, but those are the facts.


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[Meteoric Rise]

Ian "Bobby" Hill for GOAT. Four goals in a GF decided by four points - apply the relevant weighting, multiply it by the integer and there's no disputing it!

Trouble is Dusty's average GF output was Degoey + Hill. Therefore Bobby Hill GF performance = Actual Dusty minus KMart Dusty.

 

[STPer18]

Trouble is Dusty's average GF output was Degoey + Hill. Therefore Bobby Hill GF performance = Actual Dusty minus KMart Dusty.

 

[Jamolad]

I was more thinking of this one, as the results on the whiteboard is what I picture MR's workings out to look like

 

[Wojcinski]

Ian "Bobby" Hill for GOAT. Four goals in a GF decided by four points - apply the relevant weighting, multiply it by the integer and there's no disputing it!

Dusty is just Bobby Hill from wish dot com

 

[My Tilly]

Most people would be tempted to think that where you play an interstate away Qualifying Final against a team that finished above you on the home and away ladder, and the opposition team scores 8 goals 17 behinds, that this would make your 6 goals 0 behinds and an assist even more meritorious. But not Fadge

This is especially so when you look at the package of those 6 goals, all contest wins, clearance sharks or ground ball gets, not one easy receive, not one miss:

How's the pathetic defending.
That last goal he was literally just standing at the base of the pack without anyone near him.
One of those free kicks awarded was not a free kick at all. If anything, Martin had a hold of the Brisbane's defenders shirt so play on.
Mostly just crumbing and goals out the back in that highlights package.

The fact Bobby Hill just did a number on the same Brisbane defense speaks volumes. They are completely useless against small-mid sized forwards with genuine class.
Byrne-Jones & Rioli combined for 6 goals against them. As too Stephenson (4 goals), Daniels (4 goals), Petracca (4 goals), McAdam (4 goals).

 

[Meteoric Rise]

How's the pathetic defending.
That last goal he was literally just standing at the base of the pack without anyone near him.
One of those free kicks awarded was not a free kick at all. If anything, Martin had a hold of the Brisbane's defenders shirt so play on.
Mostly just crumbing and goals out the back in that highlights package.

The fact Bobby Hill just did a number on the same Brisbane defense speaks volumes. They are completely useless against small-mid sized forwards with genuine class.
Byrne-Jones & Rioli combined for 6 goals against them. As too Stephenson (4 goals), Daniels (4 goals), Petracca (4 goals), McAdam (4 goals).

They certainly have a weakness against ground level goal kickers. I wonder who has exploited this the most ruthlessly?

 

[My Tilly]

They certainly have a weakness against ground level goal kickers. I wonder who has exploited this the most ruthlessly?

Who cares who exploits them ruthlessly, they are the same team as what Geelong were in the 90's.
Awesome forward line but not a hope in hell of stopping any team which has a solid forward line and an even better backline.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

Who cares who exploits them ruthlessly, they are the same team as what Geelong were in the 90's.
Awesome forward line but not a hope in hell of stopping any team which has a solid forward line and an even better backline.

Yep that would be Richmond 2019, 20, 17. Made everyone else look like Geelong in the 90's.

So much so that our prime midfielder was only outscored by 8 goals by 3 separate Grand Final opponents whole teams in those Grand Finals. I can't recall if I posted that before maybe.

 

[blaisee]

Watching all these bunnies running around in september re afirmed one thing for sure

Dusty is the goat

Bont, Petracca et all, no one could do the business like dusty, no one dominated the finals like the great man, and no one probably ever will again

This thread should be from is dusty the goat, to, will anyone ever in the future even come close to what he has achieved?

The answer is no, not in history, not currently, and probably no one ever in the future either

 

[Mr Meow]

Dusty is just Bobby Hill from wish dot com

He scored a whopping 28% of Collingwood's goals this finals series.

11%, 26% and 18% for Martin from the '17, '19 and '20 premierships. Not bad from lil' Bobby.

Watching all these bunnies running around in september re afirmed one thing for sure

Dusty is the goat

Bont, Petracca et all, no one could do the business like dusty, no one dominated the finals like the great man, and no one probably ever will again

This thread should be from is dusty the goat, to, will anyone ever in the future even come close to what he has achieved?

The answer is no, not in history, not currently, and probably no one ever in the future either

About Pendlebury: "I honestly don't think there has ever been a player influence an AFL game, with regards to organising players around him, and telling players where to position themselves in key moments, than Scott Pendlebury," Lloyd told AFL.com.au.

"Finger pointing, hand signals. He's the traffic cop in dead-ball plays. Watch him. He tells people where to stand, tells them what to do in certain situations, then sure enough, the next play plays out the way he has envisaged."

On field coach/(spiritual)captain/player of the best functioning midfield in the comp, right to the last second of the last game. Still highly influential in driving his club to another premiership. All at 36 years old. Selwood did the same a year earlier.

What has Dusty got left in the tank besides getting Hoyne to lead a failed AA campaign? Since 2020 not a lot has happened. One EF in which you could forget he was playing.

A move to the Suns might at least see finals become a possibility.

 

[My Tilly]

Yep that would be Richmond 2019, 20, 17. Made everyone else look like Geelong in the 90's.

So much so that our prime midfielder was only outscored by 8 goals by 3 separate Grand Final opponents whole teams in those Grand Finals. I can't recall if I posted that before maybe.

Perhaps had Richmond faced tougher opposition, not the weakling's they faced in GWS, Adelaide (and Geelong without Stengle, Cameron, De Koning or Smith) then Martin & Riewoldt are contained in one or two of the games.

I mean two of those grand finalists didn't even make it back to the finals in subsequent years.

Not the case for teams like Hawthorn or Geelong who faced significant challenges of the likes of Fremantle, Sydney, Collingwood or West Coast who were slaughtered by Hawthorn but remained a premiership contender and won it only three seasons later.

In fact, when you put all that into consideration, it actually highlights how bloody good Steve Johnson, Paul Chapman & Luke Hodge truly were.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

Perhaps had Richmond faced tougher opposition, not the weakling's they faced in GWS, Adelaide (and Geelong without Stengle, Cameron, De Koning or Smith) then Martin & Riewoldt are contained in one or two of the games.

I mean two of those grand finalists didn't even make it back to the finals in subsequent years.

Not the case for teams like Hawthorn or Geelong who faced significant challenges of the likes of Fremantle, Sydney, Collingwood or West Coast who were slaughtered by Hawthorn but remained a premiership contender and won it only three seasons later.

In fact, when you put all that into consideration, it actually highlights how bloody good Steve Johnson, Paul Chapman & Luke Hodge truly were.

You are probably correct, Richmond should have joined a stronger league, we were way too good for the AFL.

 

[TiggyTig]

Perhaps had Richmond faced tougher opposition, not the weakling's they faced in GWS, Adelaide (and Geelong without Stengle, Cameron, De Koning or Smith) then Martin & Riewoldt are contained in one or two of the games.

I mean two of those grand finalists didn't even make it back to the finals in subsequent years.

Not the case for teams like Hawthorn or Geelong who faced significant challenges of the likes of Fremantle, Sydney, Collingwood or West Coast who were slaughtered by Hawthorn but remained a premiership contender and won it only three seasons later.

In fact, when you put all that into consideration, it actually highlights how bloody good Steve Johnson, Paul Chapman & Luke Hodge truly were.

Didn't Geelong win the GF last year? Adelaide highest scoring team of the last 8 years. What was your point again??

 

[Noidnadroj]

I'm glad we got here.

I can no longer engage with someone who honestly believes a player who finished 6th in their own club's best and fairest and failed to make the All-Australian team, had a better year than another player who won the Coaches Award, finished second in the AFLPA MVP, and had by all objective and subjective measures a similar high quality finals series (notwithstanding the fact the Gary Ayres Medal wasn't awarded at the time - a situation that our Martin fanbois can't seem to grasp).

You are a complete and utter lunatic.

I'm off to prepare for yet another Grand Final. What are you guys doing tomorrow?

Pendlebury won the coaches award in 2013. You rated Pendlebury’s 2013 third best, and Martin’s 2019 7th best.

Martin 2019 v Pendles 2013:

Disposals: 26.1 v 29.9
Goals: 1.4 v 0.8
GA’s: 1.0 v 0.8
I50’s: 5.6 v 4.1
Clearances: 4.3 v 5.7
SI’s : 7.3 v NA
B’Low votes: 23 v 21
BOG’s : 7 v 3 (as voted by umpires)
Coaches votes: 71 v 96 (90 v 96 including finals)
BOG’s: 6 v 5 (as voted by coaches)
Norm Smith: 1 v 0
Ayres awards: 1 v 0
Flags : 1 v 0

2.4 x goals and GA’s v 1.6, whilst averaging a few less disposals - Richmond were a low possession team so you can’t take much notice of disposal averages.

Martin dominated a finals series that culminated in a flag. Pendles had a pretty average final in an EF loss to Port at the MCG.

So Martin played an outstanding H&A season … 23 Brownlow votes with 7 x BOG’s is pretty compelling when coupled with averaging an Uber elite 26 touches and 1.4 goals per game (Petracca was 27 and 1.0 this season when he nearly won the Brownlow and the coaches award … his 98 votes were more than Pendles 96 in 2013).

Martin’s own ridiculous levels probably cost him. How someone can miss AA averaging 26 and 1.4 with 1.0 goal assists and 4.3 clearances will remain a mystery.

When stats are favouring Martin, Brownlow votes and coaches votes are comparable, and Martin dominates a final series on the way to a NS and a flag and the Pies limp out in a home EF, I rate Martin’s 2019 season clearly superior to Pendle’s 2013. At the very least 3rd v 7th in the season rankings is hard to take seriously.

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[Mr Meow]

Pendlebury won the coaches award in 2013. You rated Pendlebury’s 2013 third best, and Martin’s 2019 7th best.

Martin 2019 v Pendles 2013:

Disposals: 26.1 v 29.9
Goals: 1.4 v 0.8
GA’s: 1.0 v 0.8
I50’s: 5.6 v 4.1
Clearances: 4.3 v 5.7
SI’s : 7.3 v NA
B’Low votes: 23 v 21
BOG’s : 7 v 3 (as voted by umpires)
Coaches votes: 71 v 96
Norm Smith: 1 v 0
Ayres awards: 1 v 0
Flags : 1 v 0

2.4 x goals and GA’s v 1.6, whilst averaging a few less disposals - Richmond were a low possession team so you can’t take much notice of disposal averages.

Martin dominated a finals series that culminated in a flag. Pendles had a pretty average final in an EF loss to Port at the MCG.

So Martin played an outstanding H&A season … 23 Brownlow votes with 7 x BOG’s is pretty compelling when coupled with averaging an Uber elite 26 touches and 1.4 goals per game (Petracca was 27 and 1.0 this season when he nearly won the Brownlow and the coaches award … his 98 votes were more than Pendles 96 in 2013).

Martin’s own ridiculous levels probably cost him. How someone can miss AA averaging 26 and 1.4 with 1.0 goal assists and 4.3 clearances will remain a mystery.

If anyone just watched their respective seasons, looked at stats and then watched September, Martin’s 2019 season would be rated higher than Pendle’s 2013.


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7.6 SIs per game for Pendlebury in 2013. Despite his coaches association win I still suspect his SIs would've been higher in 2011 and maybe 2010. This is the closest Collingwood were to "dominant" with him in the side and most sides main players will have a little boost in SIs for those years for obvious reasons.

His side finished 6th. You can't look at these stats and say 2019 Martin in place of Pendlebury would've obviously dragged 2013 Collingwood to top 4 - then defeating Hawthorn, Geelong and Freo that year to win a flag while collecting the Ayres/NS award. You shouldn't get punished because your side simply wasn't that good that year. Fair enough, comparing Martin's 2019 finals credentials with Pendlebury's 2010/2011 makes sense because they both made it to the grand final and could be considered a dominant side in either year. From memory in such a situation Pendlebury performed exceptionally well, albeit without the goals and assists to convince a few on here.

 

[Noidnadroj]

7.6 SIs per game for Pendlebury in 2013. Despite his coaches association win I still suspect his SIs would've been higher in 2011 and maybe 2010. This is the closest Collingwood were to "dominant" with him in the side and most sides main players will have a little boost in SIs for those years for obvious reasons.

Fadge rated Pendlebury’s 2013 3rd best season and Martin’s 7th so that was my analysis. I think Fadgeratings close off on August 31st.

It’s actually a shame the players MVP isn’t voted on post-finals … Martin would then have three of them [emoji41]


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