Opinion Can Dustin Martin be the GOAT? (Answer: no)

[blaisee]

I was probably a little harsh within that description. He is still a good player, but no longer a major force in the AFL. Keep in mind, Gary Ablett finished 3rd in Brownlow at the age of 30 after he missed the final 7.5 games with a shoulder injury, which also robbed him of his 6th MVP award.

Ablett sr and Leigh Matthews both won the MVP at the age of 32 (It was Lethal's 3rd)


Let's face facts, blaisee. Dusty hasn't been the same player since he won the 2020 GF off his own boot and pocketed his 3rd Norm Smith. That was the last time when Martin was the AFL's best player and had people wondering if he was the GOAT. But he hasn't done anything since then which has enhanced his claim for GOAT status. Ever since he turned 30, he has lost the hunger and drive to be the best. He has been overtaken by the likes of Bontempelli, Petracca, Oliver, Cripps, etc.

Martin finished among the Top 7 in the Brownlow in six successive seasons from 2015-2020. Those were his prime years.

2015-2020
He averaged 1.12 votes per game
He polled 3's or 2's in 38% of games
He polled 3, 2, or 1 in 49% of games

2021-2023
He averaged 0.48 votes per game
He polled 3's or 2's in 18% of games
He polled 3, 2, or 1 in 20% of games


Dusty won Richmond's best and fairest in 2016 and 2017. Still a long way short of the 8 B&F's won Leigh Matthews, Gary Ablett's 6... or the 4 won by Carey & Dangerfield.

From 2018 to 2020, Dusty finished 3rd, 6th, 2nd in his club champion award... a fairly noteworthy achievement considering Richmond's overall strength in these golden years.

Since then however, the Tigers have slid down the ladder. They are no longer a good side. Just another middling team on the ladder. The Tigers finished 13th on the ladder this year with a losing record. Their runaway best and fairest winner was an inside midfielder who couldn't even make the All Australian squad of 44 and the runner-up was a 32yo half forward who kicked just 25 goals. It's not great, dude... That's the harsh reality.

sorry did not bother to read.

Dusty has now finished in the top 3 of the Jack Dyer medal for nine seasons, a record for any richmond player in history
He is 6th all time in career brownlow votes
and the only player in history with 3 norm smiths and 3 gary ayres medals

the goat

 

[Noidnadroj]

Just hang on a sec first.

I'm sure you checked the 2019 vote count. It was an incredibly close count. Ablett finished on 241.5 votes - just 26.5 votes behind the winner Dangerfield. That's right: 10% within the winner (an AA starter) and 3 AA Cat mates + 1 AA squad mate.

For a reference point, in 2021 the winner Jack Henry was over 30% ahead of the player in 7th. In 2019 you could throw a blanket over the first 7.

Martin's vote tally was 29% behind the winner, who...didn't even make the AA squad of 40. So he finished further behind the top player for the 13th placed side than Ablett did for the 3rd placed side.

Bahahaha. Yes, I had checked the 2019 leaderboard.

Miers was in his debut seasons and came 10th and was on 238 votes compared to Ablett on 241.5. So just 1.5% ahead of Miers who averaged 15 touches and kicked 28 goals in 25 matches . (Miers got 7 coaches votes and zero Brownlow votes).

So yeah, when he literally just scraped in ahead of Gryan Miers I’m not really thinking his 7th was an amazing result… Miers in his debut season FFS …


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[Noidnadroj]

Totals, not averages - especially for votes and scoring metrics (as these are how awards related to those are decided). Then we're comparing H&A, as these are the identical sample sets.

We've done it before and I already closed the book.

Dusty had more disposals but as a forward: less goals, less goal assists, less Brownlow votes, less Coaches votes and was further behind 1st in his B&F count: despite having 0 compared to 4 AA players in his side competing for votes. And almost half of Dusty's Brownlow and Coaches votes came when his sides season was done and dusted (pardon the pun). So it was a landslide before then.

And you're right, it is embarrassing as he was 2 years older.

You talk about Martin’s performance with season done … Ablett had 1 x goal and 1 x goal assist in 3 x finals. Oh yeah, but we are removing how he played in the most important games of 2019 in order to assess how he performed in … well … in 2019. So it’s 2019 (minus the 3 most important games of that year). Ok, makes sense


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[Mr Meow]

Bahahaha. Yes, I had checked the 2019 leaderboard.

Miers was in his debut seasons and came 10th and was on 238 votes compared to Ablett on 241.5. So just 1.5% ahead of Miers who averaged 15 touches and kicked 28 goals in 25 matches . (Miers got 7 coaches votes and zero Brownlow votes).

So yeah, when he literally just scraped in ahead of Gryan Miers I’m not really thinking his 7th was an amazing result… Miers in his debut season FFS …


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Yep, closer to 1st from proportion of votes to the runner up Brownlow medalist than Martin was to the ~50th best player in the AFL.

 

[Mr Meow]

You talk about Martin’s performance with season done … Ablett had 1 x goal and 1 x goal assist in 3 x finals. Oh yeah, but we are removing how he played in the most important games of 2019 in order to assess how he performed in … well … in 2019. So it’s 2019 (minus the 3 most important games of that year). Ok, makes sense


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But if you're comparing votes it makes sense right. Martin's last two games had the importance of two pre season friendlies. Martin didn't play any finals this year. He played two more dead rubbers than finals in fact - the opposite of a tough, high pressure game.

If you do insist on using that logic then sure, add all of Ablett's 2019 finals goals, assists, SIs, disposals etc onto his totals and that 11/8 Ablett's way would quickly become 16/3 or more. They're excluded from Ablett because Martin didn't have a chance to play equivalent games.

 

[Noidnadroj]

Ablett's BnF tally was 10% less than Dangerfield in 2019 - who finished 2nd in the Brownlow medal that season.

That is roughly the equivalent of Martin in 2023 playing with Port Adelaide, Melbourne or the Bulldogs and finishing within 10% of Butters, Petracca's or Bontempelli's BnF total. Except at 35 years old.

In 2019 Ablett beat Miers who finished 10th by 3.5 votes. 241.5 to 238. It was Miers debut season and he averaged 15 touches and kicked 28 goals in 25 games…. so let’s not get too excited about finishing ‘so close’ to Danger … so did Miers

Ablett finished a very narrow 7th in the B&F, Martin finished a clear second despite missing 3 games.

For medium forwards Martin was second in 2023 in Brownlow votes, second in coaches votes, second in average score involvements, made AA squad and finished 2nd in B&F….

Your expectations of Martin as a medium forward in a 13th ranked team must have been off the charts.. which shows how very highly you rate him as the GOAT.


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[Mr Meow]

In 2019 Ablett beat Miers who finished 10th by 3.5 votes. 241.5 to 238. It was Miers debut season and he averaged 15 touches and kicked 28 goals in 25 games…. so let’s not get too excited about finishing ‘so close’ to Danger … so did Miers

Ablett finished a very narrow 7th in the B&F, Martin finished a clear second despite missing 3 games.

For medium forwards Martin was second in 2023 in Brownlow votes, second in coaches votes, second in average score involvements, made AA squad and finished 2nd in B&F….

Your expectations of Martin as a medium forward in a 13th ranked team must have been off the charts.. which shows how very highly you rate him as the GOAT.


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The laughies only make you look like MR. Something I'm fairly sure you'd usually try and avoid.

 

[Corn Cobbers]

Did Dusty finish third in the Brownlow and Norm Smith in his 2nd year?

#ndaicosisthegoat

 

[Mr Meow]

Noidnadroj we're just going to get one admission from you. Ablett competed for votes with these players and got within 10% of:

-Brownlow medal runner up Dangerfield
-AA best 18 Stewart
-AA best 18 Kelly (high in Brownlow voting too)
-AA best 18 Hawkins
-AA squad Blicavs

Martin got within 20% of:

-Non AA squad Taranto

He finished ahead of:

-Others that are not in the top 50 players in the AFL.

With less coaches votes, Brownlow votes, goals and assists than Ablett.

 

[Mr Meow]

In 2019 Ablett beat Miers who finished 10th by 3.5 votes. 241.5 to 238. It was Miers debut season and he averaged 15 touches and kicked 28 goals in 25 games…. so let’s not get too excited about finishing ‘so close’ to Danger … so did Miers

Ablett finished a very narrow 7th in the Bm&F, Martin finished a clear second despite missing 3 games.

For medium forwards Martin was second in 2023 in Brownlow votes, second in coaches votes, second in average score involvements, made AA squad and finished 2nd in B&F….

Your expectations of Martin as a medium forward in a 13th ranked team must have been off the charts.. which shows how very highly you rate him as the GOAT.


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Martin was an extra midfielder (with full license to attack, and no onus to defend) this season. Bartel played a similar role at times.

Players operating in similar zones were Daicos, Gulden, Rozee and Petracca. He was comfortably below these players. 8 Brownlow votes compared to late 20s. There's a reason they made AA and he didn't.

 

[Noidnadroj]

The list of goalkickers in finals. The first list being past players and the second list being players still current in 2023. Absolutely stunned to see Martin only has 27 goals for someone who has spent so much time forward in finals. The way the carry on was going you would have assumed it was 70 goals he had kicked. De Goey is only 7 goals behind him despite playing 3 less years. The great Toby Greene

4

Toby Greene

Age

31

Ht

182cm

Wt

85kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

22.7

5star

K

12.5

5star

HB

10.2

5star

M

4.8

5star

T

3.0

5star

G

1.2

4star

D

17.5

4star

K

9.5

4star

HB

8.0

4star

M

4.8

4star

T

1.0

2star

G

2.3

5star

D

26.6

5star

K

12.4

5star

HB

14.2

5star

M

4.8

5star

T

3.6

5star

G

0.0

1star

only 1 behind him. Wow I am blown away by this.
View attachment 1821724

Good chart. I just did a quick scan of those top-21 players:

20 x players from 300+ finals games and about 50 grand finals:
Norm Smith medals: 1
Gary Ayres Awards: 1

1 x player from 16 finals and 3 grand finals :
Norm Smith medals: 3
Gary Ayres Awards: 3

Wowsers ….


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[Noidnadroj]

Yep, closer to 1st from proportion of votes to the runner up Brownlow medalist than Martin was to the ~50th best player in the AFL.

He was 1.5% ahead of Miers and a few votes from not making top-10. Let’s not get too swept up in his amazing B&F result.


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[Mr Meow]

In 2019 Ablett beat Miers who finished 10th by 3.5 votes. 241.5 to 238. It was Miers debut season and he averaged 15 touches and kicked 28 goals in 25 games…. so let’s not get too excited about finishing ‘so close’ to Danger … so did Miers

Ablett finished a very narrow 7th in the B&F, Martin finished a clear second despite missing 3 games.

For medium forwards Martin was second in 2023 in Brownlow votes, second in coaches votes, second in average score involvements, made AA squad and finished 2nd in B&F….

Your expectations of Martin as a medium forward in a 13th ranked team must have been off the charts.. which shows how very highly you rate him as the GOAT.


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I'm glad we can laugh about BnF placings. Peak Martin 2019/2020 finished behind Prestia, Edwards, Grimes, Vlastuin, Lynch, Short and 4 votes ahead of Lambert. In his prime.

They're useful players but that would be like Ablett in '07/'09 finishing behind Enright, Corey, Kelly, Taylor, Mackie and Mooney.

 

[Noidnadroj]

Noidnadroj we're just going to get one admission from you. Ablett competed for votes with these players and got within 10% of:

-Brownlow medal runner up Dangerfield
-AA best 18 Stewart
-AA best 18 Kelly (high in Brownlow voting too)
-AA best 18 Hawkins
-AA squad Blicavs

Martin got within 20% of:

-Non AA squad Taranto

He finished ahead of:

-Others that are not in the top 50 players in the AFL.

With less coaches votes, Brownlow votes, goals and assists than Ablett.

If you can explain how Miers did the exact same… a very average player in his debut season in 2019, then I’ll give the Geelong B&F result for Ablett some more credit. If you can’t then I’ll just call it for what it was… he finished 7th, 1.5% ahead of Miers.


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[Mr Meow]

If you can explain how Miers did the exact same… a very average player in his debut season in 2019, then I’ll give the Geelong B&F result for Ablett some more credit. If you can’t then I’ll just call it for what it was… he finished 7th, 1.5% ahead of Miers.


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That's Miers who had 46 direct goal contributions for the year. More than Martin 2023! Even without finals. Sure - he probably got a boost for doing that in his first season, when Geelong hadn't had a useful small forward in a decade.

But there's no refuting that Ablett was extremely competitive with his younger AA team mates (besides Danger for the non-club ones) for Brownlow, Coaches and BnF votes as a collective. Taranto had a decent but not AA squad worthy season and Martin was comfortably below him in the club stakes: Brownlow, coaches and BnF votes.

 

[Noidnadroj]

That's Miers who had 46 direct goal contributions for the year. More than Martin 2023! Even without finals. Sure - he probably got a boost for doing that in his first season, when Geelong hadn't had a useful small forward in a decade.

But there's no refuting that Ablett was extremely competitive with his younger AA team mates (besides Danger for the non-club ones) for Brownlow, Coaches and BnF votes as a collective. Taranto had a decent but not AA squad worthy season and Martin was comfortably below him in the club stakes: Brownlow, coaches and BnF votes.

Miers got 7 coaches votes and zero Brownlow votes and Ablett was neck and neck with him. So as I said, I’m not doing cartwheels over his 7th place just because it was 26.5 votes behind the winner.


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[Mr Meow]

Miers got 7 coaches votes and zero Brownlow votes and Ablett was neck and neck with him. So as I said, I’m not doing cartwheels over his 7th place just because it was 26.5 votes behind the winner.


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And Ablett had more coaches votes, Brownlow votes, goals and assists than Martin.

 

[Mr Meow]

Miers got 7 coaches votes and zero Brownlow votes and Ablett was neck and neck with him. So as I said, I’m not doing cartwheels over his 7th place just because it was 26.5 votes behind the winner.


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Also, Ablett had comfortably more coaches votes than starting 18 AA teammates Stewart and Hawkins, and AA squad member Blicavs. As a permanent forward who very much wasn't an extra midfielder - he was closer to a forward pocket. So it's much more likely Miers result is curious rather than Ablett not batting at that elite level of the AA guys above him.

Martin was comfortably below non AA squad member Taranto for coaches votes.

 

[Noidnadroj]

Also, Ablett had comfortably more coaches votes than starting 18 AA teammates Stewart and Hawkins, and AA squad member Blicavs. As a permanent forward who very much wasn't an extra midfielder - he was closer to a forward pocket. So it's much more likely Miers result is curious rather than Ablett not batting at that elite level of the AA guys above him.

Martin was comfortably below non AA squad member Taranto for coaches votes.

Ok, I blame myself for bringing up Ablett comparisons.

Martin finished clearly second in Richmond’s best and fairest, playing forward in a pretty sh*te team, so it was a very good result after 2 x interrupted seasons.

It’s no shame to finish behind TT who got 19 Brownlow votes, didn’t miss a game and played midfield the entire season. He was 4th in coaches votes and second Brownlow favourite after Round 16… he did tail off towards the end of the season.


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[Mr Meow]

Ok, I blame myself for bringing up Ablett comparisons.

Martin finished clearly second in Richmond’s best and fairest, playing forward in a pretty sh*te team, so it was a very good result after 2 x interrupted seasons.

It’s no shame to finish behind TT who got 19 Brownlow votes, didn’t miss a game and played midfield the entire season. He was 4th in coaches votes and second Brownlow favourite after Round 16… he did tail off towards the end of the season.


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Taranto still wasn't AA squad of 44 selected though. Hawkins, Stewart, Kelly and Dangerfield were in the starting 18. There's no getting around that (plus Blicavs and Duncan) being 4-6 players who are stiff competition for votes.

Dangerfield and Kelly had 52 Brownlow and 176 coaches votes between them! 13 Brownlow and 49 coaches votes from the scraps was a fine haul for a 35 year old forward pocket. One that didn't often play the role of extra midfielder, whereas Martin did.

Ablett still finished on more coaches votes than 8 of the 22 AA players in 2019. Martin finished ahead of just 3 AA players in 2023 (Larkey, Moore and English), and that number would've been one before the two dead rubber matches where he cleaned up. Before those games his 30 votes pailed in significance to the average AA player votes.

30 coaches votes for Martin during the period where his sides season was alive was less than Luke Parker on 36 votes, Dangerfield on 41 or Redman at 31 votes.

 

[Cripps 'n' Blue Bloods]

Tigers B&F was tonight .. Martin a clear second despite missing 3 games and subbed off injured in another. But but but his season wasn’t as good as Rioli, Baker, Bolton …. maybe bias wasn’t allowing people to appreciate the quality of his season.

GAJ in 2019 didn’t miss a game and finished 7th.


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I think most people agree that this was far from one of Dusty's best years. Admittedly, he set a pretty high standard for himself in recent times, so no shame in that from a 32yo. Was still a decent year, but I honestly think that a 32yo Dusty, not playing one of his best seasons, finishing a clear 2nd in the B&F isn't necessarily a good thing for Richmond.

Where are the players who should be overtaking him that will take the club forward?

 

[South of the Yarra]

It really shows the gap between buddy and everybody else. He and GAJ are clearly the best players of the modern era.

The fact we are having this discussion between Franklin, either Ablett and Martin is ridiculous. Martin is not fit to walk in their shadow.

 

[blaisee]

I think most people agree that this was far from one of Dusty's best years. Admittedly, he set a pretty high standard for himself in recent times, so no shame in that from a 32yo. Was still a decent year, but I honestly think that a 32yo Dusty, not playing one of his best seasons, finishing a clear 2nd in the B&F isn't necessarily a good thing for Richmond.

Where are the players who should be overtaking him that will take the club forward?

What on earth has any of that got to do with Dusty being the GOAT ?

 

[Noidnadroj]

Taranto still wasn't AA squad of 44 selected though. Hawkins, Stewart, Kelly and Dangerfield were in the starting 18. There's no getting around that (plus Blicavs and Duncan) being 4-6 players who are stiff competition for votes.

Dangerfield and Kelly had 52 Brownlow and 176 coaches votes between them! 13 Brownlow and 49 coaches votes from the scraps was a fine haul for a 35 year old forward pocket. One that didn't often play the role of extra midfielder, whereas Martin did.

Ablett still finished on more coaches votes than 8 of the 22 AA players in 2019. Martin finished ahead of just 3 AA players in 2023 (Larkey, Moore and English), and that number would've been one before the two dead rubber matches where he cleaned up. Before those games his 30 votes pailed in significance to the average AA player votes.

30 coaches votes for Martin during the period where his sides season was alive was less than Luke Parker on 36 votes, Dangerfield on 41 or Redman at 31 votes.

When Geelong were 11-1 and flying Ablett was doing very well as a forward in a dominant team. Obviously at 11-1 there’s plenty of goals, Brownlow votes and coaches votes to go around. Geelong kicked over 100-points in 6 of their first 12 games and 85+ in 4 others. They didn’t kick below 72-points in those 12 games.

But in their last 13 games Cats went 6-7. They kicked 100+ just twice. They kicked under 72-points 7 times in 13 games.

Obviously as the Cats dominance stopped the goals dried up. As did the Brownlow votes and coaches votes, especially for the forwards.

In last 13-games as the Cats struggled a bit he got 7 coaches votes (in 2 x big victories against lowly Blues and North) and zero Brownlow votes. He kicked just 12 goals and had just 7 goal assists. Against the best opposition in 3 x finals he had 1 x goal, 1 x goal assist and 6 x I50’s.. those are not averages, that’s total for the 3 x games. So not unlike most small-medium forwards he wasn’t able to impact when defence was strong and goals were at a premium.

And also like most small-medium forwards he made hay while the sun shone when Cats were 11-1 and flying.


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[Noidnadroj]

I think most people agree that this was far from one of Dusty's best years. Admittedly, he set a pretty high standard for himself in recent times, so no shame in that from a 32yo. Was still a decent year, but I honestly think that a 32yo Dusty, not playing one of his best seasons, finishing a clear 2nd in the B&F isn't necessarily a good thing for Richmond.

Where are the players who should be overtaking him that will take the club forward?

Expectations are so high an outstanding year is rated ‘decent’…

He averaged 23 touches, 9.8 contested, 2.9 clearances, 1.25 goals, 0.8 goal assists and 7.7 score involvements. In a 10-12-1 team.

As a comparison Rozee averaged 25.8, 8.5 CP, 3.8 CL, 0.8 goals, 0.6 goal assists and 7.0 SI’s. In a top-4 team.

Expectations are off the charts for his year to be rated ‘decent’. But that’s the bed he’s made for himself so all good.


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