Opinion Can Dustin Martin be the GOAT? (Answer: no)

[Noidnadroj]

Tigers B&F was tonight .. Martin a clear second despite missing 3 games and subbed off injured in another. But but but his season wasn’t as good as Rioli, Baker, Bolton …. maybe bias wasn’t allowing people to appreciate the quality of his season.

GAJ in 2019 didn’t miss a game and finished 7th.


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[boncer34]

Tigers B&F was tonight .. Martin a clear second despite missing 3 games and subbed off injured in another. But but but his season wasn’t as good as Rioli, Baker, Bolton …. maybe bias wasn’t allowing people to appreciate the quality of his season.

GAJ in 2019 didn’t miss a game and finished 7th.


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GAJ was also 3 years older in a team that finished top 4.

Weird comparison.

 

[Mr Meow]

Tigers B&F was tonight .. Martin a clear second despite missing 3 games and subbed off injured in another. But but but his season wasn’t as good as Rioli, Baker, Bolton …. maybe bias wasn’t allowing people to appreciate the quality of his season.

GAJ in 2019 didn’t miss a game and finished 7th.


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Having 5 starting AAs in that Geelong side competing with him for votes might've had something to do with it. You're being willfully ignorant to not acknowledge this point.

Finishing 2nd in the 13th finishing Richmond side with ZERO players besides Martin even in the AA squad of 40 (let alone 18) is the equivalent of being the tallest dwarf.

 

[Mr Meow]

Tigers B&F was tonight .. Martin a clear second despite missing 3 games and subbed off injured in another. But but but his season wasn’t as good as Rioli, Baker, Bolton …. maybe bias wasn’t allowing people to appreciate the quality of his season.

GAJ in 2019 didn’t miss a game and finished 7th.


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B&F votes in a poor side are all well and good. Brownlow and coaches votes are an obvious step above when measuring quality. Almost half of his coaches/Brownlow votes came in the two dead rubbers, when Richmond's season was officially over. Didn't he have 5 Brownlow votes and 30 coaches votes up until that point at round 23?

 

[Back One Out]

Tigers B&F was tonight .. Martin a clear second despite missing 3 games and subbed off injured in another. But but but his season wasn’t as good as Rioli, Baker, Bolton …. maybe bias wasn’t allowing people to appreciate the quality of his season.

GAJ in 2019 didn’t miss a game and finished 7th.

Says a lot about how far Richmond have slipped that Dusty missed 3 games and finished 2nd the Richmond B&F, despite looking like a shadow of the player who dominated from 2017-2020.

 

[Noidnadroj]

GAJ was also 3 years older in a team that finished top 4.

Weird comparison.

Sorry, I should’ve provided more context. Mr Meow was enjoying putting down the quality of Martin’s 2023 season… particularly in the first half of the year …. by comparing it unfavourably with GAJ’s 2019 at the Cats.

But then as the full season rolled out Martin ended up statistically superior, superior in coaches votes per game and was also an AA squad selection, as GAJ was.

So given Mr Meow’s comparison it was interesting to review their respective B&F performances, as Mr Meow was arguing he’d likely come in around top-5.


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[iameviljez]

Tigers B&F was tonight .. Martin a clear second despite missing 3 games and subbed off injured in another. But but but his season wasn’t as good as Rioli, Baker, Bolton …. maybe bias wasn’t allowing people to appreciate the quality of his season.

GAJ in 2019 didn’t miss a game and finished 7th.


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GAJ in 2019 was 35 years old.

I don't get why there's this pissing contest style obsession over whether Dusty is the GOAT or not. It seems pretty clear to me that he's not, but it seems equally clear that it absolutely does not matter. He's probably the best-performed finals player since at least colour television, he played in three flags, isn't that enough?

 

[Noidnadroj]

B&F votes in a poor side are all well and good. Brownlow and coaches votes are an obvious step above when measuring quality. Almost half of his coaches/Brownlow votes came in the two dead rubbers, when Richmond's season was officially over. Didn't he have 5 Brownlow votes and 30 coaches votes up until that point at round 23?

So now Brownlow votes and coaches votes are vital? OK … so Martin coming 3rd in Brownlow and 3rd in coaches votes in 2016 in a side finishing 13th probably puts him on the podium as the best player in the comp 2016, yeah? And his 21 Brownlow votes in 2015 as well .. hmmmm … puts them in a whole new light.

This thread suggests he wasn’t ‘elite’ until 2017….but now your own measurements suggest it’s at least 2015 onwards …

This also sheds new light on his 210+ Brownlow votes.

GAJ had a great first 12-rounds of 2011 when Cats were 11-1 - he was cashing in as the Cats feasted on the carcas of most teams.

From then onwards including finals he completely fell off the cliff. In last 13 games of the season including finals he got 7 coaches votes and 3 Brownlow votes - total. He had a total of 1 goal and 1 goal assist in 3 finals playing as a forward.

Martin’s 2023 clearly out pointed GAJ’s 2019, but in fairness he was a couple of years his junior so he probably should’ve.

Just as a reminder now the awards season is complete:

Martin 2023 v GAJ 2019

Disposals: 23.6 v 20.1
Goals: 1.2 v 1.4
GA’s: 0.8 v 0.8
I50’s: 5.0 v 4.8
SI’s: 7.7 v 6.7
CP’s : 9.8 v 8.3
Clearances: 2.9 v 2.0
Coaches votes/game: 2.35 v 2.04
Brownlow: 0.40 v 0.62
B&F: 2nd v 7th

Considering GAJ was playing permanent forward in the team that finished on top then it’s really not that close.


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[Noidnadroj]

GAJ in 2019 was 35 years old.

I don't get why there's this pissing contest style obsession over whether Dusty is the GOAT or not. It seems pretty clear to me that he's not, but it seems equally clear that it absolutely does not matter. He's probably the best-performed finals player since at least colour television, he played in three flags, isn't that enough?

This is a dedicated thread discussing the topic of if Martin can be the GOAT. Why would you be surprised that comments in here relate to that topic? Should we discuss Carlton’s chances for the flag in 2024 in this thread? Or the state of the economy?

If you don’t like the topic, why jump into this thread.


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[blaisee]

Says a lot about how far Richmond have slipped that Dusty missed 3 games and finished 2nd the Richmond B&F, despite looking like a shadow of the player who dominated from 2017-2020.

shadow you reckon ?

lol

 

[Mr Meow]

So now Brownlow votes and coaches votes are vital? OK … so Martin coming 3rd in Brownlow and 3rd in coaches votes in 2016 in a side finishing 13th probably puts him on the podium as the best player in the comp 2016, yeah? And his 21 Brownlow votes in 2015 as well .. hmmmm … puts them in a whole new light.

This thread suggests he wasn’t ‘elite’ until 2017….but now your own measurements suggest it’s at least 2015 onwards …

This also sheds new light on his 210+ Brownlow votes.

GAJ had a great first 12-rounds of 2011 when Cats were 11-1 - he was cashing in as the Cats feasted on the carcas of most teams.

From then onwards including finals he completely fell off the cliff. In last 13 games of the season including finals he got 7 coaches votes and 3 Brownlow votes - total. He had a total of 1 goal and 1 goal assist in 3 finals playing as a forward.

Martin’s 2023 clearly out pointed GAJ’s 2019, but in fairness he was a couple of years his junior so he probably should’ve.

Just as a reminder now the awards season is complete:

Martin 2023 v GAJ 2019

Disposals: 23.6 v 20.1
Goals: 1.2 v 1.4
GA’s: 0.8 v 0.8
I50’s: 5.0 v 4.8
SI’s: 7.7 v 6.7
CP’s : 9.8 v 8.3
Clearances: 2.9 v 2.0
Coaches votes/game: 2.35 v 2.04
Brownlow: 0.40 v 0.62
B&F: 2nd v 7th

Considering GAJ was playing permanent forward in the team that finished on top then it’s really not that close.


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Just hang on a sec first.

I'm sure you checked the 2019 vote count. It was an incredibly close count. Ablett finished on 241.5 votes - just 26.5 votes behind the winner Dangerfield. That's right: 10% within the winner (an AA starter) and 3 AA Cat mates + 1 AA squad mate.

For a reference point, in 2021 the winner Jack Henry was over 30% ahead of the player in 7th. In 2019 you could throw a blanket over the first 7.

Martin's vote tally was 29% behind the winner, who...didn't even make the AA squad of 40. So he finished further behind the top player for the 13th placed side than Ablett did for the 3rd placed side.

 

[Mr Meow]

So now Brownlow votes and coaches votes are vital? OK … so Martin coming 3rd in Brownlow and 3rd in coaches votes in 2016 in a side finishing 13th probably puts him on the podium as the best player in the comp 2016, yeah? And his 21 Brownlow votes in 2015 as well .. hmmmm … puts them in a whole new light.

This thread suggests he wasn’t ‘elite’ until 2017….but now your own measurements suggest it’s at least 2015 onwards …

This also sheds new light on his 210+ Brownlow votes.

GAJ had a great first 12-rounds of 2011 when Cats were 11-1 - he was cashing in as the Cats feasted on the carcas of most teams.

From then onwards including finals he completely fell off the cliff. In last 13 games of the season including finals he got 7 coaches votes and 3 Brownlow votes - total. He had a total of 1 goal and 1 goal assist in 3 finals playing as a forward.

Martin’s 2023 clearly out pointed GAJ’s 2019, but in fairness he was a couple of years his junior so he probably should’ve.

Just as a reminder now the awards season is complete:

Martin 2023 v GAJ 2019

Disposals: 23.6 v 20.1
Goals: 1.2 v 1.4
GA’s: 0.8 v 0.8
I50’s: 5.0 v 4.8
SI’s: 7.7 v 6.7
CP’s : 9.8 v 8.3
Clearances: 2.9 v 2.0
Coaches votes/game: 2.35 v 2.04
Brownlow: 0.40 v 0.62
B&F: 2nd v 7th

Considering GAJ was playing permanent forward in the team that finished on top then it’s really not that close.


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Totals, not averages - especially for votes and scoring metrics (as these are how awards related to those are decided). Then we're comparing H&A, as these are the identical sample sets.

We've done it before and I already closed the book.

Dusty had more disposals but as a forward: less goals, less goal assists, less Brownlow votes, less Coaches votes and was further behind 1st in his B&F count: despite having 0 compared to 4 AA players in his side competing for votes. And almost half of Dusty's Brownlow and Coaches votes came when his sides season was done and dusted (pardon the pun). So it was a landslide before then.

And you're right, it is embarrassing as he was 2 years older.

 

[Mr Meow]

"This will be the final authoritative analysis on this topic (you'll try for a last word but it'll only make the extras on the DVD)"

Read the sign buddy. You don't get bonus points for your season contribution by missing games. Or else we'd be re-awarding a whole lot of Brownlow's and Coleman's. Did you know what Max King averaged more goals than Oscar Allen and Kyle Langford this season? It doesn't mean he had a higher impact year. Likewise Oliver as a top 5 mid for average disposals and top 8 for clearances. And yes, Taranto should've made the squad instead of JDG.

Once the coaches votes come out we'll have the final piece of data available for round 2.

Noidnadroj please let me know if you need this reminder post, from which you can find the complete and authoritative H&A analysis between the two.

Simply add Ablett leading for coaches votes and Brownlow votes. I can do that now:

Home and Away: Martin 2023 vs Ablett 2019

Disposals: 472 vs 430 (Martin by 42)
Marks: 94 vs 80 (Martin by 14)
Goals: 25 vs 33 (Ablett by 8)
Goal assists: 15 vs 19 (Ablett by 4)
Tackles: 38 vs 94 (Ablett by 56)
Tackles inside 50: 10 vs 20 (Ablett by 10)
Inside 50’s: 100 vs 108 (Ablett by 8)
Rebound 50's: 7 vs 20 (Ablett by 13)
Contested: 195 vs 178 (Martin by 17)
Effective kicks: 311 vs 288 (Martin by 23)
Turnovers: 105 vs 99 (Ablett had 6 less)
Contested marks: 22 vs 8 (Martin by 14)
Clearances: 56 vs 46 (Martin by 10)
1%ers: 27 vs 14 (Martin by 13)
Productive score involvements: 132 vs 131 (Martin by 1)
Estimated goal involvements: 86 vs 92 (Ablett by 6)
Metres gained: 7466 vs 8217 (Ablett by 751m)
Coaches votes: 47 vs 49 (Ablett by 2)
Brownlow votes: 8 vs 13 (Ablett by 5)

Finally tally: 8 (Martin) vs Ablett (11)

 

[Mr Meow]

So now Brownlow votes and coaches votes are vital? OK … so Martin coming 3rd in Brownlow and 3rd in coaches votes in 2016 in a side finishing 13th probably puts him on the podium as the best player in the comp 2016, yeah? And his 21 Brownlow votes in 2015 as well .. hmmmm … puts them in a whole new light.

This thread suggests he wasn’t ‘elite’ until 2017….but now your own measurements suggest it’s at least 2015 onwards …

This also sheds new light on his 210+ Brownlow votes.

GAJ had a great first 12-rounds of 2011 when Cats were 11-1 - he was cashing in as the Cats feasted on the carcas of most teams.

From then onwards including finals he completely fell off the cliff. In last 13 games of the season including finals he got 7 coaches votes and 3 Brownlow votes - total. He had a total of 1 goal and 1 goal assist in 3 finals playing as a forward.

Martin’s 2023 clearly out pointed GAJ’s 2019, but in fairness he was a couple of years his junior so he probably should’ve.

Just as a reminder now the awards season is complete:

Martin 2023 v GAJ 2019

Disposals: 23.6 v 20.1
Goals: 1.2 v 1.4
GA’s: 0.8 v 0.8
I50’s: 5.0 v 4.8
SI’s: 7.7 v 6.7
CP’s : 9.8 v 8.3
Clearances: 2.9 v 2.0
Coaches votes/game: 2.35 v 2.04
Brownlow: 0.40 v 0.62
B&F: 2nd v 7th

Considering GAJ was playing permanent forward in the team that finished on top then it’s really not that close.


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He was a massive reason for the Cats hot start. The votes in those games should be weighted massively compared to Dustin's 2x near BOGs when Richmond were already completely out of finals calculations. They carried the importance of pre season matches and almost half of his votes arrived in those two matches.

A "hot finish" is decidedly tepid if it occurs when the season is already done for your side.

So it's 30 and 5 votes for Martin with the season alive, compared to 49 and 13 for Ablett. And you're right, Ablett did then run out of puff. After already accomplishing more and having a stronger season. At 35 years old - fair enough.

Ablett wasn't rested as and when he liked, unlike Martin who sat out an important game for Richmond's finals chances late in the year. Sure it protects averages but it is also the equivalent of Martin waving the white flag.

 

[STPer18]

Gryan 'Messi' Miers is a fair shot of coming 2nd in our BnF behind Stewart. Finishing second in a middling side isn't the hallmark of a GOAT I'm afraid.

 

[Mr Meow]

Gryan 'Messi' Miers is a fair shot of coming 2nd in our BnF behind Stewart. Finishing second in a middling side isn't the hallmark of a GOAT I'm afraid.

Hey! David Swallow finished 2nd in the Gold Coast B&F in 2017 (and with a vote tally 20% off 1st, so twice as far back as Ablett was off Dangerfield in 2019). I think the placing deserves at least this much respect. Swallow in 2017 was a tidy little player.

 

[Mr Meow]

Ablett's BnF tally was 10% less than Dangerfield in 2019 - who finished 2nd in the Brownlow medal that season.

That is roughly the equivalent of Martin in 2023 playing with Port Adelaide, Melbourne or the Bulldogs and finishing within 10% of Butters, Petracca's or Bontempelli's BnF total. Except at 35 years old.

 

[South of the Yarra]

The list of goalkickers in finals. The first list being past players and the second list being players still current in 2023. Absolutely stunned to see Martin only has 27 goals for someone who has spent so much time forward in finals. The way the carry on was going you would have assumed it was 70 goals he had kicked. De Goey is only 7 goals behind him despite playing 3 less years. The great Toby Greene

4

Toby Greene

Age

31

Ht

182cm

Wt

85kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

22.7

5star

K

12.5

5star

HB

10.2

5star

M

4.8

5star

T

3.0

5star

G

1.2

4star

D

17.5

4star

K

9.5

4star

HB

8.0

4star

M

4.8

4star

T

1.0

2star

G

2.3

5star

D

26.6

5star

K

12.4

5star

HB

14.2

5star

M

4.8

5star

T

3.6

5star

G

0.0

1star

only 1 behind him. Wow I am blown away by this.

 

[Caligo]

The list of goalkickers in finals. The first list being past players and the second list being players still current in 2023. Absolutely stunned to see Martin only has 27 goals for someone who has spent so much time forward in finals. The way the carry on was going you would have assumed it was 70 goals he had kicked. De Goey is only 7 goals behind him despite playing 3 less years. Wow I am blown away by this.
View attachment 1821724

It really shows the gap between buddy and everybody else. He and GAJ are clearly the best players of the modern era.

 

[Back One Out]

shadow you reckon ? lol

I was probably a little harsh within that description. He is still a good player, but no longer a major force in the AFL. Keep in mind, Gary Ablett finished 3rd in Brownlow at the age of 30 after he missed the final 7.5 games with a shoulder injury, which also robbed him of his 6th MVP award. Ablett sr and Leigh Matthews both won the MVP at the age of 32 (It was Lethal's 3rd). Buddy was still at the top of his game at the age of 31/32 winning his 4th Coleman and being appointed All Australian captain.


Let's face facts, blaisee. Dusty hasn't been the same player since he won the 2020 GF off his own boot and pocketed his 3rd Norm Smith. That was the last time when Martin was the AFL's best player and had people wondering if he was the GOAT. But he hasn't done anything since then which has enhanced his claim for GOAT status. Ever since he turned 30, he has lost the hunger and drive to be the best. He has been overtaken by the likes of Bontempelli, Petracca, Oliver, Cripps, etc.

Martin finished among the Top 7 in the Brownlow in six successive seasons from 2015-2020. Those were his prime years.

2015-2020
He averaged 1.12 votes per game
He polled 3's or 2's in 38% of games
He polled 3, 2, or 1 in 49% of games

2021-2023
He averaged 0.48 votes per game
He polled 3's or 2's in 18% of games
He polled 3, 2, or 1 in 20% of games


Dusty won Richmond's best and fairest in 2016 and 2017. Still a long way short of the 8 B&F's won Leigh Matthews, Gary Ablett's 6... or the 4 won by Carey & Dangerfield.

From 2018 to 2020, Dusty finished 3rd, 6th, 2nd in his club champion award... a fairly noteworthy achievement considering Richmond's overall strength in these golden years.

Since then however, the Tigers have slid down the ladder. They are no longer a good side. Just another middling team on the ladder. The Tigers finished 13th on the ladder this year with a losing record. Their runaway best and fairest winner was an inside midfielder who couldn't even make the All Australian squad of 44 and the runner-up was a 32yo half forward who kicked just 25 goals. It's not great, dude... That's the harsh reality.

 

[Mr Meow]

It really shows the gap between buddy and everybody else. He and GAJ are clearly the best players of the modern era.

Yep. There is even a sizeable distance to Judd IMO. Ablett and Franklin could very easily end up top of the tree (top 5 at least) for the 21st century and we have 77 seasons to go. Franklin deserved a handful of league MVPs and Ablett 5 Brownlows.

 

[Caligo]

Yep. There is even a sizeable distance to Judd IMO. Ablett and Franklin could very easily end up top of the tree (top 5 at least) for the 21st century and we have 77 seasons to go. Franklin deserved a handful of league MVPs and Ablett 5 Brownlows.

I wish they had both stayed at their clubs

 

[blaisee]

I was probably a little harsh within that description. He is still a good player, but no longer a major force in the AFL. Keep in mind, Gary Ablett finished 3rd in Brownlow at the age of 30 after he missed the final 7.5 games with a shoulder injury, which also robbed him of his 6th MVP award.

Ablett sr and Leigh Matthews both won the MVP at the age of 32 (It was Lethal's 3rd)


Let's face facts, blaisee. Dusty hasn't been the same player since he won the 2020 GF off his own boot and pocketed his 3rd Norm Smith. That was the last time when Martin was the AFL's best player and had people wondering if he was the GOAT. But he hasn't done anything since then which has enhanced his claim for GOAT status. Ever since he turned 30, he has lost the hunger and drive to be the best. He has been overtaken by the likes of Bontempelli, Petracca, Oliver, Cripps, etc.

Martin finished among the Top 7 in the Brownlow in six successive seasons from 2015-2020. Those were his prime years.

2015-2020
He averaged 1.12 votes per game
He polled 3's or 2's in 38% of games
He polled 3, 2, or 1 in 49% of games

2021-2023
He averaged 0.48 votes per game
He polled 3's or 2's in 18% of games
He polled 3, 2, or 1 in 20% of games


Dusty won Richmond's best and fairest in 2016 and 2017. Still a long way short of the 8 B&F's won Leigh Matthews, Gary Ablett's 6... or the 4 won by Carey & Dangerfield.

From 2018 to 2020, Dusty finished 3rd, 6th, 2nd in his club champion award... a fairly noteworthy achievement considering Richmond's overall strength in these golden years.

Since then however, the Tigers have slid down the ladder. They are no longer a good side. Just another middling team on the ladder. The Tigers finished 13th on the ladder this year with a losing record. Their runaway best and fairest winner was an inside midfielder who couldn't even make the All Australian squad of 44 and the runner-up was a 32yo half forward who kicked just 25 goals. It's not great, dude... That's the harsh reality.

sorry did not bother to read.

Dusty has now finished in the top 3 of the Jack Dyer medal for nine seasons, a record for any richmond player in history
He is 6th all time in career brownlow votes
and the only player in history with 3 norm smiths and 3 gary ayres medals

the goat

 

[Noidnadroj]

Just hang on a sec first.

I'm sure you checked the 2019 vote count. It was an incredibly close count. Ablett finished on 241.5 votes - just 26.5 votes behind the winner Dangerfield. That's right: 10% within the winner (an AA starter) and 3 AA Cat mates + 1 AA squad mate.

For a reference point, in 2021 the winner Jack Henry was over 30% ahead of the player in 7th. In 2019 you could throw a blanket over the first 7.

Martin's vote tally was 29% behind the winner, who...didn't even make the AA squad of 40. So he finished further behind the top player for the 13th placed side than Ablett did for the 3rd placed side.

Bahahaha. Yes, I had checked the 2019 leaderboard.

Miers was in his debut seasons and came 10th and was on 238 votes compared to Ablett on 241.5. So just 1.5% ahead of Miers who averaged 15 touches and kicked 28 goals in 25 matches . (Miers got 7 coaches votes and zero Brownlow votes).

So yeah, when he literally just scraped in ahead of Gryan Miers I’m not really thinking his 7th was an amazing result… Miers in his debut season FFS …


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[Noidnadroj]

Totals, not averages - especially for votes and scoring metrics (as these are how awards related to those are decided). Then we're comparing H&A, as these are the identical sample sets.

We've done it before and I already closed the book.

Dusty had more disposals but as a forward: less goals, less goal assists, less Brownlow votes, less Coaches votes and was further behind 1st in his B&F count: despite having 0 compared to 4 AA players in his side competing for votes. And almost half of Dusty's Brownlow and Coaches votes came when his sides season was done and dusted (pardon the pun). So it was a landslide before then.

And you're right, it is embarrassing as he was 2 years older.

You talk about Martin’s performance with season done … Ablett had 1 x goal and 1 x goal assist in 3 x finals. Oh yeah, but we are removing how he played in the most important games of 2019 in order to assess how he performed in … well … in 2019. So it’s 2019 (minus the 3 most important games of that year). Ok, makes sense


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