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Can Hawthorn succeed while ignoring the elite end of the draft? - Part 2

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100-200k in a reducing cap is huge

Crouch will also not cost anywhere near that to trade for so less incentive to pay that cash.

If the salary cap is reduced then so would the requirement for a band 1 compensation. His current salary would be around 700K already so it's not really a stretch to imagine it increasing as a free agent.
 
If the salary cap is reduced then so would the requirement for a band 1 compensation. His current salary would be around 700K already so it's not really a stretch to imagine it increasing as a free agent.
Doubt it.

AFL is closer to removing compo then relaxing the rules.
 
How does Essendons list compare to Hawks
Both terrible

Funny thing is the Bombers fans have been saying we were going to end up middle of the road for years never getting to the top and contending, just stuck being mediocre which is exactly where they have ended up.
 

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After a couple of decades now Bombers, Dees, Blues have gone nowhere and Saints won’t see any silverware soon with all the elite end draft picks they have all had.

Enjoyed today watching Scrimshaw, Day, Greaves and Cousins ...... add in a couple more high draft picks this year with the core group that it already has Hawks will be back sooner than later!
 
Truth be told I am getting a bit annoyed at Clarkson's deflection tactics. It seems like every time Hawthorn lose at the moment Clarkson says something controversial in the press conference afterwards to try and get the AFL media talking about that and not Hawthorn's performance.
You don't know what you're wishing for. Do you want to return to the days Jeff was doing the deflection?

Yeah nah didn't think so 😂
 
Truth be told I am getting a bit annoyed at Clarkson's deflection tactics. It seems like every time Hawthorn lose at the moment Clarkson says something controversial in the press conference afterwards to try and get the AFL media talking about that and not Hawthorn's performance.
If you go back to the North game with his comments about holding the ball he even does it when we win. Its just this season there haven't been many wins to do it after.

Would prefer he just focus on what Hawthorn are doing though. There is enough to think about there without even worrying about the opposition
 
Truth be told I am getting a bit annoyed at Clarkson's deflection tactics. It seems like every time Hawthorn lose at the moment Clarkson says something controversial in the press conference afterwards to try and get the AFL media talking about that and not Hawthorn's performance.
Exactly he would rather the heat fall on him than the club
 

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Hawthorn are still ranked above Essendon on the squiggle, despite having one of our worst seasons since the 1950s.

View attachment 954705

The cup's breaking into two clusters is interesting. You have the really good teams clustered in the more attacking group at the top, teams like Lions, Cats, Hawthorn 3-peat team. Then you have the second, slightly less attacking cluster with the finalists of the last few years plus Sydney from older years (the team everyone said was shit to watch at the time, including the head of the AFL). A few of those teams int he second cluster strongly featured in the 'worst premierships of this century' polls made on bigfooty in the last couple of years.

Not sure how well the squiggle corrects for shorter quarters, as I'm surprised to see Geelong in the 'not really as good as other flag winners' cluster. They seem to be going pretty well to me, so suspect the shorter quarters are impacting their positioning. Hard to argue that footy wasn't more fun to watch back when the teams in the top cluster were winning flags, and I think that goes beyond the fact that my team was one of them.
 
Truth be told I am getting a bit annoyed at Clarkson's deflection tactics. It seems like every time Hawthorn lose at the moment Clarkson says something controversial in the press conference afterwards to try and get the AFL media talking about that and not Hawthorn's performance.
Tbh I don't think his last presser was much about deflection, rather acknowledging that he was outcoached; a lot of what he said was taken out of context by tabloidist's like Barrett.
But overall I think Clarko has had some pretty average pressers this year.
 
Hawthorn's spine is ordinary. The worst in the league by some way.

Tall forwards: O'Brien, M Lewis, Patton.

I think Lewis will be OK, maybe even good, but not great. I was surprised to see O'Brien is 26, so he's as good as he's going to get and Patton isn't even that good when he's on the park.

McEvoy has got a year or two left maximum, so he won't be around in the future. Ceglar is pretty ordinary too. But rucks are pretty replaceable. A guy like Gawn, Nic Nat or Grundy can change a game, though.

The backline is Frost, Frawley and Day. Sicily is the intercept mark and will be great at it if he recovers but not a true KP. Frawley will be out with McEvoy, in reality he already should be but they need his experience. Day unknown, Frost OK, but not great, also 27 so probably already as good as he'll get.

I don't think tall stoppers are hard to develop/trade for, but the really good ones are. Just like the really good forwards. Hawthorn don't have any at either end. Just look at how much worse Essendon are without Daniher or how much better Geelong are with Hawkins firing. (see also: Buddy, Roughy, Gibson, Frawley, McEvoy in their prime).

Hawthorn need key position players all across the field.
 
Hawthorn's spine is ordinary. The worst in the league by some way.

Tall forwards: O'Brien, M Lewis, Patton.

I think Lewis will be OK, maybe even good, but not great. I was surprised to see O'Brien is 26, so he's as good as he's going to get and Patton isn't even that good when he's on the park.

McEvoy has got a year or two left maximum, so he won't be around in the future. Ceglar is pretty ordinary too. But rucks are pretty replaceable. A guy like Gawn, Nic Nat or Grundy can change a game, though.

The backline is Frost, Frawley and Day. Sicily is the intercept mark and will be great at it if he recovers but not a true KP. Frawley will be out with McEvoy, in reality he already should be but they need his experience. Day unknown, Frost OK, but not great, also 27 so probably already as good as he'll get.

I don't think tall stoppers are hard to develop/trade for, but the really good ones are. Just like the really good forwards. Hawthorn don't have any at either end. Just look at how much worse Essendon are without Daniher or how much better Geelong are with Hawkins firing. (see also: Buddy, Roughy, Gibson, Frawley, McEvoy in their prime).

Hawthorn need key position players all across the field.
You're leaving out Hartley, and Kosi is a young developing KPD. Scrimshaw is 193cm and is a gun.

Agree re the tall fwds. Need to nail one with pick 3.
Gunston is 193cm, and our leading goalkicker, but more of a 3rd tall. Jeka a kid who's developing too.
 

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All of our problems stem from the middle. Lack depth and consistency inside and lack class and speed outside.

With teams playing team defense I don't think a gun KPD is a necessity anymore for success, although it stands out like dogs balls when you have one (see McGovern, Lake etc).

Likewise I think a gun KPF is a cherry on the top. As long as they are competitive and the delivery is good you can paper over the cracks. Especially if you have a decent brigade of smalls (which minus Breust we do not and it is showing).
 
I think Lewis will be OK, maybe even good, but not great. I was surprised to see O'Brien is 26, so he's as good as he's going to get and Patton isn't even that good when he's on the park.

He was pretty decent in 2017. Kicked 45 goals in a side where Cameron was also getting a lot of the forward entry delivery and also kicked 45. In fact Patton was their equal leading goal kicker that year, with Patton, Toby, Cameron all getting 45 each. Wasn't bad in 2016 either with 38. Unfortunately it is hard to say how permanently damaged he is after the ACLs given we haven't been able to see him on the park for more than a few weeks in a row this year. Given his best couple of years at GWS, I'd say he was capable of 60+ in a team where he was the main KPF if his body allowed him a run at it, but he could well have lost athleticism with the 3 knee recos, so I certainly wouldn't be betting the house on him coming good (and given what we paid for him in trade, I don't think Hawthorn have either).

O'brien would actually be a very decent tall forward (or tall defender) if he took half the marks he got his hands to. When he plays a game where he clunks them, he looks like a star, but has trouble stringing together games where he achieves that. Seems a confidence issue given he can actually do it. He's a nice kick, and fairly mobile for his size, but his ability to drop a contested mark is endlessly frustrating.

We do ok in defence without having a lot of top level talls there, partly because our game plan aims to protect them, and partly because we have players that are decent overhead and can play tall like Sicily. We've been pantsed regularly this year, but we conceded the third least score last year, and were only 2 points off conceding the second least score. We haven't actually had many big bags kicked against us by talls this year. Our issue has probably been out of form small defenders. Hardwick has been having a poor season, and Stratton looks cooked. Impey returning from an ACL didn't help in that area either.

Of course we'd love a couple of top KP players, one at each end, but looking at how we've lost this year, I suspect our one-flavoured midfield has been a much bigger issue than KP stocks, but you're right , we will need a Frawley replacement fairly soon (which isn't to say he's cooked, he's actually been one of our better performing defenders this year, which might not be saying much).
 
O'brien would actually be a very decent tall forward (or tall defender) if he took half the marks he got his hands to. When he plays a game where he clunks them, he looks like a star, but has trouble stringing together games where he achieves that. Seems a confidence issue given he can actually do it. He's a nice kick, and fairly mobile for his size, but his ability to drop a contested mark is endlessly frustrating.

Sounds just like Mason Cox.
 
Let's be real here - Would an extra couple of "higher quality" 19-20 years olds in the Hawthorn side really solve their problems right now?

Depends what you're trying to solve for. Duursma, Hunter Clark and Liam Ryan would all improve their list right now and their outlook moving forward. Hindsight is 20/20 though, as they say.
 
Depends what you're trying to solve for. Duursma, Hunter Clark and Liam Ryan would all improve their list right now and their outlook moving forward. Hindsight is 20/20 though, as they say.
Duursma has been in and out of the side. Clark has been mediocre of late. Didnt notice him yesterday.
 

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Can Hawthorn succeed while ignoring the elite end of the draft? - Part 2


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