Can Sydney keep Warner and avoid more trade bans?

[CharlieMortdecai]

I'm curious, do you actually follow much of what's been happening with the academies and the flow-on effect of them in terms of participation in Sydney and NSW?

I assume since you're very interested in the grass roots of the sport you are.

No, but creating a talent and development pathway from one of the youngest possible age groups has had a pretty clear affect on the growth in junior ranks. A pretty positive effects from the of the hundreds of players who didn't make the AFL going back into community football as players and coaches.

Good lord.

I'm in the Riverina so a bit different to the rest of NSW, and no I am not familiar with those flow-on effects, happy for you to enlighten me with the statistics.
I should also say that I certainly am all for talent pathways and academies.
What nobody has yet demonstrated to me is why these pathways should be in conjunction with draft concessions. Trying to summarise the various arguments, it seems to boil down to:
1. Rugby league and union can recruit kids from the age of 16.
2. It is to compensate the northern teams for their inability to make lists with significant numbers of locals.
I find both of these arguments unconvincing, and nobody seems to be able to provide statistical or anecdotal evidence as to how the draft concessions are actually improving participation rates, stopping a drain of talent to RL & RU, or why compensation for players leaving is required beyond the trade system.

 

[.Shotties.]

I'm in the Riverina so a bit different to the rest of NSW, and no I am not familiar with those flow-on effects, happy for you to enlighten me with the statistics.

Incredibly easy to find the growth in participation in Sydney from about the time academies came in for someone genuinely interested.

Here's one, what statistical evidence do you have that the academies cause an inequity in the competition? Have northern academy clubs out-performed the rest of the competition since 2010?

 

[Philhawk]

If the argument is that the AFL can’t be trusted to develop kids in the state then it’s simple.

Divvy up NSW among all clubs and let them have a go. Don’t just limit to swans and giants.

 

[sthmelb_dimmies]

Jordan Dawson is undoubtedly a very good footballer. But getting back pick 18 for a "wantaway" South Australian who you selected with pick 56 is hardly evidence of a talent drain from the Swans that requires additional compensation in the form of draft concessions

2. It is to compensate the northern teams for their inability to make lists with significant numbers of locals.

Can you not see the contradiction in these quotes

 

[Philhawk]

Here's one, what statistical evidence do you have that the academies cause an inequity in the competition?

That in the space of the last 2 years, Gold Coast have had 5 first round draft picks (4 via academy) in comparison to North - who had a far inferior record to them on the ladder.

It’s simple.

 

[sthmelb_dimmies]

If the argument is that the AFL can’t be trusted to develop kids in the state then it’s simple.

Divvy up NSW among all clubs and let them have a go. Don’t just limit to swans and giants.

So hawthorn are going to run auskick camps in Mudgee? Sounds sensible lol

 

[.Shotties.]

If the argument is that the AFL can’t be trusted to develop kids in the state then it’s simple.

Divvy up NSW among all clubs and let them have a go. Don’t just limit to swans and giants.

Yes, the last time this was done it went really well. Solid investment in grass roots and not at all skimming what was thought to be the top end talent.

 

[.Shotties.]

That in the space of the last 2 years, Gold Coast have had 5 first round draft picks (4 via academy) in comparison to North - who had a far inferior record to them on the ladder.

It’s simple.

This is incredibly zoomed in, but yeah I can agree with that. I assume by the same weight of comparison you agree that Northern clubs face a disadvantage as they've had more players leave for their home state than a selected Victorian club?

 

[Philhawk]

This is incredibly zoomed in, but yeah I can agree with that. I assume by the same weight of comparison you agree that Northern clubs face a disadvantage as they've had more players leave for their home state than a selected Victorian club?

Not trolling, but can you prove this?

As per 2020, this was the last article on the matter. I’m sure there’s more recent articles - I just can’t find them.

Ten years on, has AFL free agency proved fruitful? | Footyology

footyology.com.au

 

[CharlieMortdecai]

Can you not see the contradiction in these quotes

Huh? The contradiction is exactly what I am highlighting! Swans fans may think that pick 18 was unders for Dawson, but to my view given he was selected with pick 56 it is hardly evidence for the requirement of additional draft concessions.

 

[SBD Gonzalez]

1. Rugby league and union can recruit kids from the age of 16.
2. It is to compensate the northern teams for their inability to make lists with significant numbers of locals.

It’s not just RL and rugby, it’s all sports.

Aussie Rules was as good as invisible in NSW/QLD for most of the 20th century. That is slowly turning around but it’s hard to overemphasise the lack of cultural toehold that our beloved game still has in NSW (Riverina excepted) and QLD.

 

[Number37]

1. You're the one "making shit up", I never claimed that anybody said that, I was responding to one of your coreligionists' claim that draft concessions were one way to compensate Northern clubs for the "go home" factor.
2. How many 7 year olds or their parents are rejecting footy as a pastime because they might have to move interstate if they play at the highest level?

1/ Draft concessions are one way to compensate Northern clubs for the go home factor because draft concessions, by definition, encourage Northern clubs to pick kids from Northern states.

2/ What sort of stupid question is that? Which 7 year old is getting signed by any sports code?

 

[Number37]

Seems to confirm what I said - 13 is about the age that elite talent pathways begin

Is there a League talent pathway program in Vic/SA/WA? No!
Is there a rugby talent pathway program in Vic/SA?WA? No!
COnsequently very few kids from Vic/SA/WA are playing in the elite rugby comps.

Vic/SA/WA are minnows to the rugby codes.
On the other hand Qld/NSW are 2 of the biggest states and there is a massive potential talent pool.
Why wouldn't the AFL tap into that by establishing an AFL talent pathway?
That would seem like basic common sense.

 

[Number37]

Because I value an uncompromised draft more highly.
I'm also far more interested in growing the base of the sport, than focusing on the minuscule percentage of kids who go down the elite pathways. I don't know what the current state is, but post-2000 Olympics research showed that pumping money into high performance sport had no effect whatsoever on participation rates.
And nobody can identify the extent of this alleged drain of talent that would occur if academy kids entered the open draft. Isaac Heeney seems to be it, great player but I'm not losing too much sleep if he's playing for the North Sydney Bears instead.

What a load of crap.
"Uncompromised draft" is an oxymoron.


Heeney was 1 out of 100 to make it. That's 1%.
If you have a 1,000 kids in the academy 1% = 10 kids making it.
If you have 10,000 kids in the academy 1% = 100 kids making it.

The more kids you encourage to join the academy the more kids you will get making it to the talent pool.
If 100 kids make it, then it's impossible for Northern clubs to take them all. ie every other club benefits.

How can you not see something as simple as this?

 

[CharlieMortdecai]

What a load of crap.
"Uncompromised draft" is an oxymoron.


Heeney was 1 out of 100 to make it. That's 1%.
If you have a 1,000 kids in the academy 1% = 10 kids making it.
If you have 10,000 kids in the academy 1% = 100 kids making it.

The more kids you encourage to join the academy the more kids you will get making it to the talent pool.
If 100 kids make it, then it's impossible for Northern clubs to take them all. ie every other club benefits.

How can you not see something as simple as this?

I'm not advocating we get rid of academies, just the draft concessions.

GWS still operates academies in the Riverina, even though they no longer have special access to the players. Sydney on the other hand operates a strict "If you are not in our zone, you can't join our academy" policy.

Why can't the academies be run for the benefit of all clubs now, rather than waiting for 10,000 kids to join the academy?

Sidenote - you need a new word of the week. Maybe appanage?

 

[bloodsbigot]

I look forward to the day when the AFL removes all the recruiting concessions, ambassador payments, salary cap swindles, special handouts, favours, inside info, and just makes it a level playing field with the same rules & opportunities for every club.

How about rotating the Grand Final between states?

No? Okay. Then shut the **** up.

 

[bloodsbigot]

I'd rather the Geelong salary cap

Pretty good deal for the players when cost of living is so damn low in Geelong. No wonder they trade in so many decent players. Just makes financial sense, especially with all the sponsorship and media deals on the side.

 

[Philhawk]

GWS still operates academies in the Riverina, even though they no longer have special access to the players. Sydney on the other hand operates a strict "If you are not in our zone, you can't join our academy" policy.

Why can't the academies be run for the benefit of all clubs now, rather than waiting for 10,000 kids to join the academy?

Well said.

 

[Number37]

Why can't the academies be run for the benefit of all clubs now, rather than waiting for 10,000 kids to join the academy?

The Swans academy is wholly funded by the Swans foundation.
$2m per year.
Other clubs want to pony up to help fund Northern academies?
What's stopping them? Nothing.

FYI, the AFL has tried, and failed, to run a Northern academy as successfully as the current Swans academy.

 

[bloodsbigot]

However, these Grand Final gripes pale into insignificance when you consider the recruiting & salary cap leg-ups which the AFL have bestowed upon the northern clubs.

Yeah let's just pretend the zoning advantages bestowed upon Hawthorn in the 70s and 80s never happened.

Victorian clubs take the severe recruiting advantages they have for granted because it's just the norm across most of the competition.

 

[Philhawk]

The Swans academy is wholly funded by the Swans foundation.
$2m per year.
Other clubs want to pony up to help fund Northern academies?
What's stopping them? Nothing.

Which, in turn, is wholly funded by clubs like Hawthorn, Collingwood and others who receive ~$5m less in distributions per year from the AFL.

 

[skinnyP]

The Swans academy is wholly funded by the Swans foundation.
$2m per year.
Other clubs want to pony up to help fund Northern academies?
What's stopping them? Nothing.

FYI, the AFL has tried, and failed, to run a Northern academy as successfully as the current Swans academy.

Mate the afl run the gc and gws academies and they are super successful.

 

[sexyhunk]

Yeah let's just pretend the zoning advantages bestowed upon Hawthorn in the 70s and 80s never happened.

Victorian clubs take the severe recruiting advantages they have for granted because it's just the norm across most of the competition.

whats zoning policies 40 years ago have to do with now.

if is so important for guys like mills and heeney to stay in sydney, why cant they request trade back to sydeny once their first year player contract is up?

 

[Philhawk]

whats zoning policies 40 years ago have to do with now.

if is so important for guys like mills and heeney to stay in sydney, why cant they request trade back to sydeny once their first year player contract is up?

Still waiting to see proof that Swans have been disadvantaged more than other clubs by the “go home factor” …

 

[CharlieMortdecai]

This is incredibly zoomed in, but yeah I can agree with that. I assume by the same weight of comparison you agree that Northern clubs face a disadvantage as they've had more players leave for their home state than a selected Victorian club?

A quick look at the 2022-23 trade periods suggests it is only Gold Coast and GWS that have this issue, and I would think this is still a carryover from their start-up concessions and larger list sizes they had in that period.

In that time 15 players returned to their home state via trades. Most of them are non-issue trades, eg I'd imagine Sydney would have been very happy to see the back of renowned hardman Dylan Stephens for a round 1 pick, while Hawthorn-Freo (Meek-JOM) and Port-Essendon (BZT-Duursma) just swapped a WASA and a Vic.

Players I assume clubs would have liked to retain:
JHF (North)
Rankine (GC)
Taranto (GWS)
Jackson (Melb)
Bruhn (GWS)

It hardly screams talent drain to me.