Knightmare
Brownlow Medallist
- Sep 22, 2010
- 19,533
- 19,542
- AFL Club
- Collingwood
- Other Teams
- Chicago Bulls
- Banned
- #151
Sorry, but my point is that you're not really analysing, you're just trying to find evidence that may support your opinion. You've started with a theory that Collingwood players will continue to deteriorate quickly and then looked for supporting evidence. You've then ignored context which might explain any small drops in performance that you are noticing before you come to the conclusion that your data does actually support your view. You'd need to do a much more holistic review than you appear to have done if you are including guys like Crisp and Howe as evidence of early decline. You'd need to analyse Crisp's early season form against his previous year's early season form. Howe's form so far against other years where he was coming back from an injury. Sidebottom's form against standard long-run form not just against his outlier fabulous year. Beams against other top-liners who have moved from a bottom club to a top club, with an adjusted role. Then you'd have to look at whether a couple of quieter games from these guys is enough to warrant claims of a downward trend caused by some factors at the club. Then you'd have to look at other older players within the club that may not support your perspective, such as Chris Mayne, Jarrod Roughhead.
If you're going to assume that shorter careers for Collingwood players is going to continue, obviously it isn't to do with us wearing black and white stripes. There has to be a reason for us to have shorter careers than players from other clubs. If there was a reason it occurred in the past, what was that reason? Is that reason still there? What you are doing with your assumption that Collingwood players will have shorter careers is akin to assuming that Geelong and Hawthorn and St Kilda will always be top teams because they were top teams during this period when a lot of Collingwood players didn't make it into their thirties.
It can be analysed just as easily from the perspective of how many have really hung onto their play into their late 20s and 30s. Or in comparison to other club who had lots of players who were once good and then have either sustained or dropped off. Even beyond simply listing those who fell off the cliff or declined prematurely.
Those comparable clubs who have had success at similar stages - Geelong/St Kilda/Hawthorn/Sydney/West Coast/Fremantle/Western Bulldogs/Adelaide/Port Adelaide have had much greater longevity than the Pies as those other teams over the past 10 seasons and been motivated to sustain.
Ablett/Taylor/Selwood/Hawkins/Lonergan/Ottens/Kelly/Johnson/Bartel/Enright/Ling/Chapman/Corey/Hunt. Geelong got exceptional long-term service from that group and all have been exceptional up to and beyond the age of 30. Lonergan and Hawkins at 30 arguably hit career best form. A lot of them because Geelong wanted to get younger got moved on prematurely and could have played longer, or did later for other clubs.
Lake/Hale/Gibson/Roughead/Lewis/Franklin/Mitchell/Hodge. Those guys didn't forget how to play at 30. Gibson and Mitchell had no drop off. Lake was terrific upon moving to Hawthorn after 30 and remained terrific. Hodge incredibly looked done and he's still playing good football.
Collingwood haven't had that guy who sustained like this or hit their prime at 30. Buckley won a Brownlow at 31 and is the closest thing to that but he was better in 99/00. Leon Davis? He played his better footy late career and in his final season as a 29/30 year old as a defender played career best footy having never been exposed to the position before, though that's still not playing into his 30s. Otherwise there isn't anyone else who comes close to ticking either box. And neither of those teams had Didak/D.Thomas/Reid level players who were done before 28, 25 and 24 respectively with Matthew Egan that only sad story from either team never getting back to that All-Australian form.
I can dig up mirroring cases from the other clubs I listed who have been competitive over the span with each of their situations reflecting favourably by contrast to Collingwood.
As an outsider. I can't say I know exactly why it is the case. I have suspicions which I've spoken about in the past. But there isn't anything that is suggesting to me that things have changed with Collingwood's players in their later 20s continuing to show signs of premature decline.