Carlton and Melbourne - who has the greater supporter base

[Worm4]

Just an observation here -
Our auskick in the northern suburbs was dominated by little carlton kiddies so the generational thing previously discussed is a myth. Out of the 150 or so kids in weekly attendance, there was only 2 melbourne jumpers running around. There would have been at least 20 carlton kids running around. This might be different, say, in the inner east which may be dominated by Hawthorn or Richmond, or Essendon out north west i suggest.
If anyone thinks Melbourne are on a par with Carlton regarding supporter base, they are kidding themselves.

 

[Isaac Cumming No 1]

Our supporters are in the best shape they've ever been

Well and truly hardened up.

 

[Madtiger2006]

I’m sorry but Richmond is bigger than both Carlton and Essendon in Melbourne. They are on par with Collingwood

In Melbourne it is :

Collingwood and Richmond
Essendon
Hawthorn
Carlton
Melbourne

Hawthorn easily has more fans than Carlton nowadays

Yep. After 38 years of lasts and a few ninths and two finals wins. By far the worst record in the league from 1983-2016. We come out and win a final and go on to win the premiership last year. This year we pretty much get 1.2 mill in crowds and over 100k members. That’s on par with what Essendon would achieve and more success can get us closer to 1.3 mill. Definitely top 3. Bombers could get 100k members I think. Not sure if collingwood can though. Collingwood have been the best performed team onfield this century which has given them the advantage in crowds

 

[Gavin Excell]

Pre the 80s was Essendon one of the big clubs? Or has its position at the top end only been relatively recent (ie last 30 years)

 

[CrowInFiji]

This question really should be "Which team's bandwaggon will have the higher capacity?"

 

[Dez!]

Nope, it is clearly accurate. Collingwood/Essendon basically equal at the top, Kangaroos second last. Pies, Bombers, Blues, Tigers top 4, which is all pretty much what convention has told us for the last 40 years. Anyone who knows anything about football and club supporter numbers can see that it is accurate.

Do some naive people think Carlton fans have literally died off do they? lol.

They only thing clear there is that you are an absolute moron if you're using Herald Sun/Supercoach numbers to try make a point.

 

[gbatman]

Melbourne have never had a huge supporter base where as it wasn't that long ago Carlton were one of the highest. The best way to tell supporter numbers is through social media following which indicates Carlton are still fairly high. The thing is that Carlton are so bad and have been so bad for so long that their membership and attendances are poor. Carlton are a bit of a sleeping giant, when they get good again things will be very strong for them supporter wise. Melbourne have been down a long time, they don't have terrible following, they should be strong next season so I think we will see what they can do following wise.

 

[Bazzar]

Carlton have fallen so far of the perch in the last 20 years they are in danger of the Saints overtaking them

 

[Trav 20]

Carlton easily. Like most supporter bases they're fickle, which is why you don't see them.

I like our smallish base. They're well heeled.

We're a nice small exclusive group the Melbourne Club.

 

[juss]

Nope. Carlton is still third. Just because their fans aren't going to games because their team is shit, doesn't mean they have all died. They are still alive. The single best gauge on supporter base is the Supercoach club supporter rankings. Unlike Morgan surveys which survey a few thousand people, this is a defacto "survey" of 300,000 people.

Melbourne have been last for a while now. Young people just refused to barrack for the Dees after the mid 1960's. Carlton have always been a supporter powerhouse.

SUPERCOACH CLUB SUPPORTER NUMBERS (just counting the 10 Victorian clubs)

Collingwood 23,257.........16.33% of Victorians support Collingwood
Essendon 22,866............16.05% of Victorian support Essendon
Carlton 17,497...............12.28% of Victorians support Carlton
Richmond 15,824...........11.11% of Victorians support Richmond
Hawthorn 15,787............11.08% of Victorians support Hawthorn
Geelong 13,836..............9.72% of Victorians support Geelong
St.Kilda 9,595................6.74% of Victorians support St.Kilda
Nth.Melb 8,699..............6.11% of Victorians support North
W.Bulldogs 7,914...........5.56% of Victorians support the Bulldogs
Melbourne 7,121............5.00% of Victorians support Melbourne

This isnt really valid at all.

This is a breakdown of supercoach players supported teams, it tells you nothing of significance for total support. All you can draw from this is of players that play supercoach here are the percentages.

What about other fantasy games? What about older or younger generations that dont play fantasy games? What about those that dont give a damn about fantasy football?

 

[Underarm]

Nope. Carlton is still third. Just because their fans aren't going to games because their team is shit, doesn't mean they have all died. They are still alive. The single best gauge on supporter base is the Supercoach club supporter rankings. Unlike Morgan surveys which survey a few thousand people, this is a defacto "survey" of 300,000 people.

Melbourne have been last for a while now. Young people just refused to barrack for the Dees after the mid 1960's. Carlton have always been a supporter powerhouse.

SUPERCOACH CLUB SUPPORTER NUMBERS (just counting the 10 Victorian clubs)

Collingwood 23,257.........16.33% of Victorians support Collingwood
Essendon 22,866............16.05% of Victorian support Essendon
Carlton 17,497...............12.28% of Victorians support Carlton
Richmond 15,824...........11.11% of Victorians support Richmond
Hawthorn 15,787............11.08% of Victorians support Hawthorn
Geelong 13,836..............9.72% of Victorians support Geelong
St.Kilda 9,595................6.74% of Victorians support St.Kilda
Nth.Melb 8,699..............6.11% of Victorians support North
W.Bulldogs 7,914...........5.56% of Victorians support the Bulldogs
Melbourne 7,121............5.00% of Victorians support Melbourne

This shows a incredible lack of understanding of how Surveys work, and the questions that Morgan Survey was asking (and what it wasn't asking). A "few thousand people" is enough to get a good representation of the entire population.

1. Morgan survey asks respondants which team you support. It doesn't say how much you support them or how passionately you support them. Sydney always seem well out in front because of that.
2. Supercoach asks AFL Superfans who like playing fantasy football which team you support. It skews towards young people and Males, and Nerds on football forums.
3. Membership tally show us how many of their fans are putting money into their club. However some clubs have incredibly poor conversion rates from fans into paying members( Carlton) or are limited by ground size (geelong, interstate sides) or by MCC Members not counting (Melbourne espeically).
4. Attendance shows us how many of their fans are actually showing up and watching. However some clubs are limited by capacity and poor performance.

Of the 4 measures, I would say Supercoach is the least reliable measure for how many actual fans there are. Carlton is bigger than Melbourne, but supercoach isn't reliable indicator at all.

 

[AvantGardener]

Carlton.

This isn't Bay 13. And if it was it would probably be in the divvy van

 

[Nobu]

1. Richmond
2. Collingwood
3. Essendon
4. Hawthorn
5. Carlton
6. Melbourne
7. Western Bulldogs
8. St Kilda
9. North Melbourne

 

[Craze]

Pre the 80s was Essendon one of the big clubs? Or has its position at the top end only been relatively recent (ie last 30 years)

Good question. Actually hard to tell because being based at Windy Hill restricted their crowd numbers considerably. I never ventured out there but some of the crowds that crammed into that small ground were, frankly, dangerous ... https://afltables.com/afl/crowds/vn_windy_hill.html. Check out the number of people crammed in on the outer side in the middle of June on a cold wet day in 1982, v.'s Carlton.



On a side note Essendon made a habit of beating the Blues during Carlton's premiership years of '79-'82 (one of the greatest teams in AFL/VFL history IMHO).

What I clearly remember is that when Essendon emerged from their poor 70's run and played in elimination finals in '79, '81 and '82, their crowds rivalled those of Collingwood, Carlton and Richmond. I vaguely recall the VFL transferring a Collingwood v Essendon match to the MCG mid-way through the '81 season on the back of an Essendon winning streak.

In Round 3 1982 Richmond and Essendon drew over 90,000 to an Easter Monday game. Essendon had just come off a win over Carlton at Waverley, and Richmond were also 2-0. This caught the league off-guard and demonstrated Essendon's drawing power.

And the Bombers frequently drew massive crowds out at Waverley even though the majority of their supporter base would be miles away from that sh*thole. 75,000 for a late season H&A game v.'s Geelong in 1981, for example.

Essendon supporters would have a better grasp of the history of the club, but their success across all decades (except the 70's), superstar players (Coleman/Reynolds, etc.) meant that they were always going to be a popular club.

 

[Hallstrom]

This shows a incredible lack of understanding of how Surveys work, and the questions that Morgan Survey was asking (and what it wasn't asking). A "few thousand people" is enough to get a good representation of the entire population.

1. Morgan survey asks respondants which team you support. It doesn't say how much you support them or how passionately you support them. Sydney always seem well out in front because of that.
2. Supercoach asks AFL Superfans who like playing fantasy football which team you support. It skews towards young people and Males, and Nerds on football forums.
3. Membership tally show us how many of their fans are putting money into their club. However some clubs have incredibly poor conversion rates from fans into paying members( Carlton) or are limited by ground size (geelong, interstate sides) or by MCC Members not counting (Melbourne espeically).
4. Attendance shows us how many of their fans are actually showing up and watching. However some clubs are limited by capacity and poor performance.

Of the 4 measures, I would say Supercoach is the least reliable measure for how many actual fans there are. Carlton is bigger than Melbourne, but supercoach isn't reliable indicator at all.

I don't agree at all. Membership and attendance are massively skewed by current performance. Way more so than gender or 'nerdiness'. I would say most fans are pretty evenly distributed despite their gender or how nerdy they are. Age could be a factor though.
The question was about supporter base which includes all the fair weather fans so membership tally and attendance I think are worse indicators in this instance than supercoach numbers.

 

[Forest Bomber]

1. Richmond
2. Collingwood
3. Essendon
4. Hawthorn
5. Carlton
6. Melbourne
7. Western Bulldogs
8. St Kilda
9. North Melbourne

You have Richmond number one! they had just won a premiership a year ago and were favourites to do so pretty much all this year. Essendon haven't won a premiership since 2000 and our last final win I believe is 2004 so really how can one compare the two confidently. I am happy to be grouped part of the top 3 which includes Collingwood and Richmond with really not much difference between them. If next year is the year we start challenging for the top and possible premierships will see how our attendance and membership sits in comparison.

 

[Nobu]

You have Richmond number one! they had just won a premiership a year ago and were favourites to do so pretty much all this year. Essendon haven't won a premiership since 2000 and our last final win I believe is 2004 so really how can one compare the two confidently. I am happy to be grouped part of the top 3 which includes Collingwood and Richmond with really not much difference between them. If next year is the year we start challenging for the top and possible premierships will see how our attendance and membership sits in comparison.

Richmond’s attendances and memberships when they were in a 37 year premiership drought were still far superior to Essendon’s. They were keeping up pace with Hawthorn and Collingwood who had both come off recent success - one side came off a three-peat and another is regarded as the biggest in the country. Essendon are well behind the leaders now. Furthermore, whilst Essendon haven’t had much recent on-field success they haven’t reached the lows of Richmond who had been a genuine laughing stock for a significant period. Yes, Richmond have just won a flag, but not even Collingwood blew everyone out of the water the way Richmond did when they won one.

Your case for Essendon is weak when you’re basing it on hypotheticals and conjecture. The facts are Richmond dominate memberships and lead attendances. They’re currently the benchmark of the competition after knocking Collingwood off the top. It was always going to happen when they won one. They’re a juggernaut off-field at the moment and the AFL are probably glad they didn’t go back to back as they would’ve broken away from the chasing pack even further.

 

[Forest Bomber]

Richmond’s attendances and memberships when they were in a 37 year premiership drought were still far superior to Essendon’s. They were keeping up pace with Hawthorn and Collingwood who had both come off recent success - one side came off a three-peat and another is regarded as the biggest in the country. Essendon are well behind the leaders now. Furthermore, whilst Essendon haven’t had much recent on-field success they haven’t reached the lows of Richmond who had been a genuine laughing stock for a significant period. Yes, Richmond have just won a flag, but not even Collingwood blew everyone out of the water the way Richmond did when they won one.

Your case for Essendon is weak when you’re basing it on hypotheticals and conjecture. The facts are Richmond dominate memberships and lead attendances. They’re currently the benchmark of the competition after knocking Collingwood off the top. It was always going to happen when they won one. They’re a juggernaut off-field at the moment and the AFL are probably glad they didn’t go back to back as they would’ve broken away from the chasing pack even further.

Firstly you cannot compare attendances as one plays most games at MCG and the other doesn't. If we take in memberships Richmond 2010 35960, 2011 40184, 2012 53027 Essendon 2010 40589, 2011 50275, 2012 47708. 2013 was the drug saga so memberships clearly for Essendon after this were affected. So this is my case for being hypothetical and conjecture, facts!!!......lol. Also your claim that Richmond were keeping pace with Collingwood 2010 57617, 2011 71,271, 2012 72688.. I see you clearly either failed or skipped maths if this is your definition of keeping pace.....lol. Anything from 2013 with Essendon cannot be used as a fair comparison and as I said last 2 years Richmond winning premiership and being favourites.....So maybe you should stop with the hypothetical and conjecture and try facts for a change.

 

[Nobu]

Firstly you cannot compare attendances as one plays most games at MCG and the other doesn't. If we take in memberships Richmond 2010 35960, 2011 40184, 2012 53027 Essendon 2010 40589, 2011 50275, 2012 47708. 2013 was the drug saga so memberships clearly for Essendon after this were affected. So this is my case for being hypothetical and conjecture, facts!!!......lol. Also your claim that Richmond were keeping pace with Collingwood 2010 57617, 2011 71,271, 2012 72688.. I see you clearly either failed or skipped maths if this is your definition of keeping pace.....lol. Anything from 2013 with Essendon cannot be used as a fair comparison and as I said last 2 years Richmond winning premiership and being favourites.....So maybe you should stop with the hypothetical and conjecture and try facts for a change.

Well if I compare Richmond’s attendances to other MCG tenants in Collingwood and Hawthorn, they outnumbered both of them in 2017 during the H&A season. You pretty much play all the big Victorian sides at the G anyway.

Also, the year before Richmond won the premiership (2016):
Richmond: 72,278
Collingwood: 74,643
Hawthorn: 75,341
Essendon: 57,494
Only one side there that isn’t keeping up and it isn’t Richmond.

Richmond again stayed with Hawthorn and Collingwood the following year (before Richmond won the flag), with those three clubs being the only three to break 70,000 members.

In 2017, despite being in a 37 year premiership drought, Richmond outnumbered Essendon in both memberships and attendances.

You can bring up any year you want prior to 2013, but it means literally nothing now. Richmond transformed themselves off the field before they won a premiership whereas you guys only have yourself to blame for that drug cheating debacle, so don’t use that as an excuse.

 

[thatday]

Yes, Richmond have just won a flag, but not even Collingwood blew everyone out of the water the way Richmond did when they won one.

Even in 2018 after winning the flag in 2017 Richmond couldn’t beat Collingwood’s 2011 or 2010 season attendance records. Don’t get caught up in the hype. They barely beat us for attendances this season and they were ‘unbeatable’ at the MCG.

Also, on the topic of the thread. Carlton are still comfortably one of the four biggest clubs in Victoria supporter base wise. I don’t think they are anywhere near it nationally however. Melbourne have done really well with supporter engagement over the last couple of seasons and winning obviously helps but outside of the MCC they really only come out in big numbers for 1 or 2 games a year.

 

[Papa G]

Carlton would be the 3rd most supported club in SA after the Crows and Port. They are very well supported outside Victoria. Their brown paper bag era bought them a lot of interstate players and supporters.

 

[Nobu]

Even in 2018 after winning the flag in 2017 Richmond couldn’t beat Collingwood’s 2011 or 2010 season attendance records. Don’t get caught up in the hype. They barely beat us for attendances this season and they were ‘unbeatable’ at the MCG.

Also, on the topic of the thread. Carlton are still comfortably one of the four biggest clubs in Victoria supporter base wise. I don’t think they are anywhere near it nationally however. Melbourne have done really well with supporter engagement over the last couple of seasons and winning obviously helps but outside of the MCC they really only come out in big numbers for 1 or 2 games a year.

I would value membership numbers more than attendance records. Fixtures are inconsistent plus some clubs can have more favourable draws than others (Collingwood usually do well for themselves in that regard) so attendance data would require more intense scrutiny and interpretation.

A breakdown of who supports what club at games would be also be interesting. For example, if Fremantle were playing Collingwood in round 22 and Fremantle needed to win to make the finals, you’d expect a higher than usual number of Fremantle fans attending that game, but it bodes well for Collingwood given that it boosts their attendance numbers.

There are too many circumstantial data issues when it comes to attendance numbers. Timing, weather, meaning, etc. You also have to consider the introduction of Gold Coast and GWS, which would severely deplete attendances and averages. Going to the football is also becoming increasingly unaffordable and clubs that typically have working class supporter bases such as Collingwood and Richmond have suffered as a result.

Memberships are what they are, even if you’re buying one for your pet, you’re still making a financial contribution to the club. Membership numbers are also heavily audited by the AFL so unlike attendances, you know it’s a level playing field. Pies attendance numbers in 2010/11 were impressive though, I must say.

 

[thatday]

I would value membership numbers more than attendance records. Fixtures are inconsistent plus some clubs can have more favourable draws than others (Collingwood usually do well for themselves in that regard) so attendance data would require more intense scrutiny and interpretation.

A breakdown of who supports what club at games would be also be interesting. For example, if Fremantle were playing Collingwood in round 22 and Fremantle needed to win to make the finals, you’d expect a higher than usual number of Fremantle fans attending that game, but it bodes well for Collingwood given that it boosts their attendance numbers.

There are too many circumstantial data issues when it comes to attendance numbers. Timing, weather, meaning, etc. You also have to consider the introduction of Gold Coast and GWS, which would severely deplete attendances and averages. Going to the football is also becoming increasingly unaffordable and clubs that typically have working class supporter bases such as Collingwood and Richmond have suffered as a result.

Memberships are what they are, even if you’re buying one for your pet, you’re still making a financial contribution to the club. Membership numbers are also heavily audited by the AFL so unlike attendances, you know it’s a level playing field. Pies attendance numbers in 2010/11 were impressive though, I must say.

Membership numbers across the league have increased massively in the last 10-15 years. I remember in 2007 it was a big deal when clubs got over 40,000. You said Collingwood didn’t blow everyone out of the water the way Richmond did. In 2011 we had 13,000 more members than the next best. In 2018 Richmond had 20,000 more than the next best. Both times the next best was hawthorn who are universally accepted to have the fourth or fifth highest supporter base in Vic, but seem to always be second or third in memberships. I think both memberships and attendances need to be looked at in the same way, there are too many factors for both for either to be definitive.

One massive thing to look at for memberships is how much clubs make per member. West Coast and Fremantle both charge a lot more per member than pretty much anyone, usually Collingwood and Adelaide are up there for price per membership too.

Of course Richmond’s numbers over the last few years have been incredible and very impressive - I’m not taking anything away from them. I just get frustrated by the hyperbole from the media who always seem to tout inaccurate stats.

Anyway, there’s actually a whole board for topics like this and I imagine this’ll get moved there pretty soon.

 

[schmuttt]

Carlton clearly still bigger but ours is a lot larger than people thought, including myself. Was very surprised at the crowd vs Geelong.

 

[The Wrecker]

Not sure registered SuperCoach members is a good indicator of a supporter base! Does the Financial Times do fantasy football? Better indicator. With prize money of $50,000 most Melbourne supporters can raise that by renting out the yacht or the beach house for a week!