Banter Carlton is better in 2024. Who will be better in 2025? Carlton or Collingwood? Part 3

[Fadge]

Collingwood regularly contend for 16 flags
Carlton don't regularly contend, for 16 flags
Doesn't say much the pies now does it ?

We're talking about current times, not 40 to 130 years ago....

 

[Corn Cobbers]

Form isn't exactly permanent you know
Again, what about Collingwoods "form" before July? Doesn't count ?

Correct, doesn't count

"Form", good or bad, is continuous until it is broken

Ask the Swans about "form"

 

[Worm4]

predictions at this stage:
Range for Collingwood in 2025 - 2nd to 8th.
Range for Carlton in 2025 - 7th to 15th.

Is this the point of reference where you will call yourself a predictor guru by leaving the window open at 50% ( you've selected 9 ladder positions for the Blues in a field of 18)
Very ballsy indeed

 

[Worm4]

Correct, doesn't count

"Form", good or bad, is continuous until it is broken

Ask the Swans about "form"

So there is no way Carlton can win more than 5 games next year going off your form ladder. I'm willing to have a bet with anyone on the planet that form won't continue successively for us.

 

[Fadge]

Is this the point of reference where you will call yourself a predictor guru by leaving the window open at 50% ( you've selected 9 ladder positions for the Blues in a field of 18)
Very ballsy indeed

Well as we can see, 2 to 3 games can be the difference between 8 or 9 ladder positions.

It is a fine line.

Bottom line is, Carlton don't contend for the premiership in 2025.

 

[Worm4]

Well as we can see, 2 to 3 games can be the difference between 8 or 9 ladder positions.

It is a fine line.

Bottom line is, Carlton don't contend for the premiership in 2025.

Neither do collingwood

 

[Fadge]

Neither do collingwood

I've shared my rationale, what's yours?

 

[Worm4]

I've shared my rationale, what's yours?

That's between you and your old mate arrow.
All I care about is having a healthier list and players improving pressure around the contest, which should equate to better performances. It's not rocket science

 

[Fadge]

That's between you and your old mate arrow.
All I care about is having a healthier list and players improving pressure around the contest, which should equate to better performances. It's not rocket science

So no shortcomings with your current list, just better luck with injuries and more pressure applied by the playing group?

Is that what you're saying?

 

[carlton_99]

So how do Collingwood bridge the seemingly insurmountable gap of zero premiership points and 6% that Carlton finished above them in 2024.

It really is quite simple:

Carlton have peaked as nothing more than an average, mid table football team. They have an unbalanced list and too simple a game plan - kick it long and quick into Harry and Charlie, one of whom has psychological issues when kicking for goal, the other is yet to prove himself in big finals, and have no quality mid sized or small forwards to complement them. Double up games against the two clear worst teams in the competition were the only thing that stood between them and my predicted finished of 13th this year, not to mention dissentgate against Fremantle earlier in the season.

Collingwood meanwhile have proven themselves to be regular premiership contenders. After having a slow start in 2024 courtesy of the shortest off season break in the history of the game, they got going to recover to third spot, but simply didn't have the continuity of players throughout the season to ever pose a genuine threat to the better teams in the competition, though their form was as good as anyone's for the last handful of games - beating the eventual premiers who were rallying for a double chance, and letting what looked to be a match-winning lead slip against the top of the table Swans to lose by less than a kick.

Here is a list of the locked in best 22 players from each team who missed more than 6 games (all teams have fringe players, but I have chosen the top 15 or so players that would walk into each respective side):
Carlton:
11 - Cerra
23 - Docherty

Two players who missed 34 games in total.

Collingwood:
8 - Elliott, Cox
10 - De Goey
12 - Mihocek
17 - Mitchell
18 - McStay

Six players who missed 73 games in total.

I still think a lot will need to go right for Collingwood to contend in 2025, given the improvement of the likes of Brisbane, GWS, Sydney and Hawthorn, but all things being equal they are a significantly better team than Carlton.

Whilst the trade, draft and fixture will need to be assessed for a final conclusion to be drawn, predictions at this stage:
Range for Collingwood in 2025 - 2nd to 8th.
Range for Carlton in 2025 - 7th to 15th.

Just some bizarre comments about Carlton once again.

• We were the 6th least experienced team in the AFL in 2024 - not sure what evidence there is to suggest Carlton have peaked. Once again it doesn't look like Carlton will lose anyone they aren't willing to lose and have the draft capital to keep balancing the list.
• Harry McKay kicked 49.21 in 2024 but has "psychological issues" apparently
• Comparing injuries like you have is ridiculous - Carlton missed more games due to injury than Collingwood in 2024 overall. Who you rate as the top 15 is irrelevant. Not to mention you have failed to take into account the context (i.e., when were specific players missing, what other players were missing at that time, what was the opposition quality like in those games etc). Bottom line both teams had poor runs with injury in 24'. Nothing new for Carlton unfortunately.
• Then to finish you say Carlton are between 7-15 on the ladder after posting your ladder in another thread earlier and having us 14th...?

 

[Worm4]

So no shortcomings with your current list, just better luck with injuries and more pressure applied by the playing group?

Is that what you're saying?

You saw what I wrote.

 

[Worm4]

Just some bizarre comments about Carlton once again.

• Then to finish you say Carlton are between 7-15 on the ladder after posting your ladder in another thread earlier and having us 14th...?

Thats his posting style. Has a bit each way all through the forum and then references it as a correct prediction down the track

 

[Fadge]

• We were the 6th least experienced team in the AFL in 2024 - not sure what evidence there is to suggest Carlton have peaked. Once again it doesn't look like Carlton will lose anyone they aren't willing to lose and have the draft capital to keep balancing the list.

Sorry, forgot that youth and potential are better than proven performance on BigFooty. If you have so much draft capital, why are you having so much trouble with the Houston deal? I guess trade period will inform us on this one.

• Harry McKay kicked 49.21 in 2024 but has "psychological issues" apparently.

How many kicks for goal didn't score? I count them as well. Do you honestly have confidence when Harry is kicking for goal?

• Comparing injuries like you have is ridiculous - Carlton missed more game due to injury than Collingwood in 2024 overall. Who you rate as the top 15 is irrelevant. Not to mention you have failed to take into account the context (i.e., when were specific players missing, what other players were missing at that time, what was the opposition quality like in those games etc). Bottom line both teams had poor runs with injury in 24'. Nothing new for Carlton unfortunately.

It's not who I think are top 15, it's who were the top 15. Collingwood had better players miss more games - that is obvious, and a big reason for Collingwood's poor performance this year.

• Then to finish you say Carlton are between 7-15 on the ladder after posting your ladder in another thread earlier and having us 14th...?

I'm pretty sure the number 14 is between 7 and 15. By stating that range, it allows for a better than expected performance by Carlton, and also worse than expected performances by other teams. Bottom line is, they will fall well short of premiership contention, yet again.

 

[Fadge]

You saw what I wrote.

I did see what I wrote, but just clarifying.

So I'll ask again - you don't see a need for too much in the way of list changes, or do you think you need list changes - for example, replace injury prone players with durable players, and bring in players where application of pressure in in their DNA moreso than some other Carlton players who are currently geeting games?

 

[Worm4]

Sorry, forgot that youth and potential are better than proven performance on BigFooty. If you have so much draft capital, why are you having so much trouble with the Houston deal? I guess trade period will inform us on this one.

How many kicks for goal didn't score? I count them as well. Do you honestly have confidence when Harry is kicking for goal?

It's not who I think are top 15, it's who were the top 15. Collingwood had better players miss more games - that is obvious, and a big reason for Collingwood's poor performance this year.

I'm pretty sure the number 14 is between 7 and 15. By stating that range, it allows for a better than expected performance by Carlton, and also worse than expected performances by other teams. Bottom line is, they will fall well short of premiership contention, yet again.

But who will be better in 2025 ?

 

[Fadge]

But who will be better in 2025 ?

I've given my thoughts and explained my rationale.

What about you? Who do you think will be better, and importantly, why?

 

[Worm4]

I did see what I wrote, but just clarifying.

So I'll ask again - you don't see a need for too much in the way of list changes, or do you think you need list changes - for example, replace injury prone players with durable players, and bring in players where application of pressure in in their DNA moreso than some other Carlton players who are currently geeting games?

I'm pretty sure the club has addressed a few of the injury concerns by a) sacking a few players, and b) sacking the fitness guy , so it has begun.
Unfortunately, Young and Fantasia are still contracted for another year . Both are dead set duds. Owies doesn't have a defensive bone in the body despite kicking the same amount of goals as Bobby Hill. Happy to see him off the list, as well as both durdin and durden . Yes , there are deficiencies. I'm sure every club has them and trying to getting them sorted out

 

[Fadge]

Don't you love the modus operandi by Carlton supporters?

'I'm willing to engage in football discussion with anyone, at any time' - but when asked to engage in football discussion, they run a mile.

When actual football discussion is taking place, we're apparently going off tangent, and they simply come back with the question in the thread topic, that they aren't willing to discuss and share their rationale for their predictions anyway.

What a miserable, boring and insipid supporter base.

 

[Corn Cobbers]

But who will be better in 2025 ?

That's actually what we're talking about Wormy

PIES will be better

Top 4 is better than bottom 4

 

[carlton_99]

Sorry, forgot that youth and potential are better than proven performance on BigFooty. If you have so much draft capital, why are you having so much trouble with the Houston deal? I guess trade period will inform us on this one.

What are you talking about? I was referencing your comment about Carlton "peaking" already. No evidence exists to suggest that and the fact that we were the 6th least experienced team in the AFL in 2024 is evidence that there is improvement in the existing list. And we would have no issue getting a deal done for Houston on the first day of trade period if we wanted to - we have two first round picks and two second round picks across 24' and 25'. We have just made it clear that we are prioritising the draft this season and as Houston isn't a pressing need we won't give up what Port are rumoured to want currently.

How many kicks for goal didn't score? I count them as well. Do you honestly have confidence when Harry is kicking for goal?

His goal accuracy in 2024 was 58.3%. 85 players kicked 20+ goals in the AFL in 2024 and Harry ranked 18th in goal accuracy in that group. And yes I have confidence when Harry goes for goal - had one poor year in that area and the media had a meltdown but improved significantly in 2024.

It's not who I think are top 15, it's who were the top 15. Collingwood had better players miss more games - that is obvious, and a big reason for Collingwood's poor performance this year.

Once again you have ignored the context that I described which impact performance.

I'm pretty sure the number 14 is between 7 and 15. By stating that range, it allows for a better than expected performance by Carlton, and also worse than expected performances by other teams. Bottom line is, they will fall well short of premiership contention, yet again.

Yes 14 lies between 7-15 but having a range of 7-15 for a prediction is ridiculous when it is half the ladder spots available. Your prediction is 14th currently - if Carlton finish 7th in 2025 will you be claiming that as a correct prediction?

 

[Robertio]

Yep.

Won more finals.

Lost more finals.

Played in more finals so just generally a far better football club.

Not in 2024.

 

[Worm4]

What a miserable, boring and insipid supporter base.

The fek you on ? Maybe it's its just you - you are that condescending that a lot of posters don't want to engage in such conversations , plus the fact you think you are never wrong , ever , might have something to do with it as well

 

[Robertio]

Don't you love the modus operandi by Carlton supporters?

'I'm willing to engage in football discussion with anyone, at any time' - but when asked to engage in football discussion, they run a mile.

When actual football discussion is taking place, we're apparently going off tangent, and they simply come back with the question in the thread topic, that they aren't willing to discuss and share their rationale for their predictions anyway.

What a miserable, boring and insipid supporter base.

Might have something to do with you don't f****n listen, too busy playing up to your adoring crowd.

 

[Crankyhawk]

Don't you love the modus operandi by Carlton supporters?

'I'm willing to engage in football discussion with anyone, at any time' - but when asked to engage in football discussion, they run a mile.

When actual football discussion is taking place, we're apparently going off tangent, and they simply come back with the question in the thread topic, that they aren't willing to discuss and share their rationale for their predictions anyway.

What a miserable, boring and insipid supporter base.

Timing. The post just above yours did seem to be genuine discussion (of Carlton’s injury woes)