Bulldogs or Hawks, who is better in 2024 and more of a premiership threat?

[Back One Out]

Two sides in form with very different trajectories who somehow are just outside the 8, but imo are the 3rd and 4th best in it atm: Bulldogs have been frustratingly close, but despite having never finished top 4 under Bevo have won gf win and one gf runners up appearance. Just never seem consistent enough despite their talent, but their best is still among the best. The win in Geelong against Geelong seems to have put them back in the premiership conversation, and I think if they beat Sydney they have to be considered a real flag chance.

Hawthorn are of course rebuilding faster than expected...not only might they play finals, they might go deep. For me almost beating Port in Adelaide (where the Dogs got belted) was when they really stamped themselves. I truly believe if they get into finals they could go deep. I think they're still a bit behind the Bulldogs - even if they beat the Dogs earlier this year - but in ladder position they're similar. Post the 5 game horror run their % and form has been consistently better than the Dogs.

Unbelievably I think those brown and gold buggers are a flag chance even outside the 8, but I'd say the Bulldogs are still more of a threat. Still on form they seem quite similar this year.

I actually feel both sides are defensively more sound than last year too, and both play exciting, attacking footy. The caveat is that premiership sides are defensively very solid, and they still can leak quite a bit.

Finally, I sense Sydney and Carlton are faltering a bit at the pointy end of the season. Expect them to go deep and still play a GF or PF at least, but this season has shown they're gettable.

Dude, we’re outsiders to finish in the top 8

We not only have to win our remaining 3 games (including Carlton this weekend) but we’re also relying on either the Eagles or Saints to pull off a miraculous upset and beat the Blues in Rounds 23, 24

It aint gonna happen.

Hawks to finish 9th or 10th

Still, it’s been a massive improvement this year. Most people tipped Hawthorn to finish in the bottom four.

After we lost our first 5 games, the Hawks v North game was billed as a battle of the wooden spoon

Hawthorn has gone 11-4 since then. It’s a shame they won’t play this September because I think we’re just as good as 4 or 5 of the teams currently in the Top 8

 

[PerthBoy86]

Dude, we’re outsiders to finish in the top 8

We not only have to win our remaining 3 games (including Carlton this weekend) but we’re also relying on either the Eagles or Saints to pull off a miraculous upset and beat the Blues in Rounds 23, 24

It aint gonna happen.

Hawks to finish 9th or 10th

Still, it’s been a massive improvement this year. Most people tipped Hawthorn to finish in the bottom four.

After we lost our first 5 games, the Hawks v North game was billed as a battle of the wooden spoon

Hawthorn has gone 11-4 since then. It’s a shame they won’t play this September because I think we’re just as good as 4 or 5 of the teams currently in the Top 8

Yeah looking less likely that they will make finals, but like you say a massive improvement and optimism heading into 25. No guarantees they will improve, like the Crows last year, but they seem better coached with a better gameplan than the 23 Crows. Jealous of you brown and gold bustards (though we've been pretty spoilt too), 9 years out from a 3 peat and could already contend again! I guess both the big birds have done pretty well with 9 of the 34 AFL premierships, almost 1 in 3! 11 out of the 34 if you include the biggish Swans.

 

[Back One Out]

Yeah looking less likely that they will make finals, but like you say a massive improvement and optimism heading into 25. No guarantees they will improve, like the Crows last year, but they seem better coached with a better gameplan than the 23 Crows. Jealous of you brown and gold bustards (though we've been pretty spoilt too), 9 years out from a 3 peat and could already contend again! I guess both the big birds have done pretty well with 9 of the 34 AFL premierships, almost 1 in 3! 11 out of the 34 if you include the biggish Swans.

Hmmm

I personally wouldn’t go overboard with any predictions about the Hawks in 2025

It’s one thing for a club to drag themselves out of the cellar and become a competitive middle-of-the-road team - I’m really happy with Sam Mitchell & the team that they’ve achieved that over the past 3 months - but I also think it’s an even bigger step to go from 9th/10th to becoming a legit top four team and a perennial premiership contender.

I think we’re definitely on the right track. But I’m wary of assuming we’ll see automatic linear improvement next year.

This is a bit of a weird season. It’s a raffle. There seems to be a bit of a power vacuum at the top of the ladder. No great teams. 10 or 11 pretty good teams battling it out. We’ll probably see normality return next year with 4 or 5 legit flag contenders separating themselves from the pack.

 

[PerthBoy86]

Hmmm

I personally wouldn’t go overboard with any predictions about the Hawks in 2025

It’s one thing for a club to drag themselves out of the cellar and become a competitive middle-of-the-road team - I’m really happy with Sam Mitchell & the team that they’ve achieved that over the past 3 months - but I also think it’s an even bigger step to go from 9th/10th to becoming a legit top four team and a perennial premiership contender.

I think we’re definitely on the right track. But I’m wary of assuming we’ll see automatic linear improvement next year.

This is a bit of a weird season. It’s a raffle. There seems to be a bit of a power vacuum at the top of the ladder. No great teams. 10 or 11 pretty good teams battling it out. We’ll probably see normality return next year with 4 or 5 legit flag contenders separating themselves from the pack.

Yeah the media etc does get excited when teams seem to bottle lightning and find amazing form, but that doesnt always lost long. I think with the Hawks there is also the element of surprise, a bit like the Pies of 22, maybe teams will start to counter them better in 25. Still they remind me a lot of the Eagles in late 2004 when we went on that run and just made finals if I recall. Obviously much credit to Sam Mitchell, think he was pretty instrumental to us building to that premiership as well.

I expect the evenness/unpredictability to continue next season, so exciting times ahead.

 

[Testekill]

Hmmm

I personally wouldn’t go overboard with any predictions about the Hawks in 2025

It’s one thing for a club to drag themselves out of the cellar and become a competitive middle-of-the-road team - I’m really happy with Sam Mitchell & the team that they’ve achieved that over the past 3 months - but I also think it’s an even bigger step to go from 9th/10th to becoming a legit top four team and a perennial premiership contender.

I think we’re definitely on the right track. But I’m wary of assuming we’ll see automatic linear improvement next year.

This is a bit of a weird season. It’s a raffle. There seems to be a bit of a power vacuum at the top of the ladder. No great teams. 10 or 11 pretty good teams battling it out. We’ll probably see normality return next year with 4 or 5 legit flag contenders separating themselves from the pack.

The big worry of course is that the new coach smell is able to galvanise the team and get everyone firing for a short while ( I am aware that this is year 3 for Mitchell). We saw that with the Suns suddenly looking like world beaters under Hardwick to start the season before devolving into typical Suns form, what the Hawks getting into great form but just missing the finals does for them is instilling the belief that their best can match it with anyone.
Same thing happened with the Bulldogs in 2015 under Beveridge, half of the game is played between your ears these days.

 

[Bushdid911]

Will be interesting to see how Hawks go next year. if they beat Richmond and North to finish out the season, 7 of their 13 wins will have come against bottom 4 sides. They obviously won't be getting those double ups next year.

 

[Guardian Hawk]

Will be interesting to see how Hawks go next year. if they beat Richmond and North to finish out the season, 7 of their 13 wins will have come against bottom 4 sides. They obviously won't be getting those double ups next year.

Whilst that's true, I don' think it's the double ups that have made the difference really. Since the form turnaround in Round 8, we've only lost 1 game by more than 2 points (v Geelong). Every other team we've faced (top 4, top 8, next group or bottom 4) we have either beaten or led by 5+ goals in the last quarter. It's not a soft draw that has gotten us the wins as we have performed equally well against all sides.

It's more going to be whether we can maintain the form from round 8 onwards or not into next year. Lots of examples of teams that have continued their late season form or taken the next step the following year (Collingwood, GWS and Carlton in recent times) and lots of examples of teams that have regressed the following season (Adelaide and St.Kilda this year, Freo last year, etc).

 

[Guardian Hawk]

Yeah the media etc does get excited when teams seem to bottle lightning and find amazing form, but that doesnt always lost long. I think with the Hawks there is also the element of surprise, a bit like the Pies of 22, maybe teams will start to counter them better in 25. Still they remind me a lot of the Eagles in late 2004 when we went on that run and just made finals if I recall. Obviously much credit to Sam Mitchell, think he was pretty instrumental to us building to that premiership as well.

I expect the evenness/unpredictability to continue next season, so exciting times ahead.

I love that in both examples you've used, the team went on to win the flag in the next two seasons. Here's hoping something similar occurs.

 

[Guardian Hawk]

Hmmm

I personally wouldn’t go overboard with any predictions about the Hawks in 2025

It’s one thing for a club to drag themselves out of the cellar and become a competitive middle-of-the-road team - I’m really happy with Sam Mitchell & the team that they’ve achieved that over the past 3 months - but I also think it’s an even bigger step to go from 9th/10th to becoming a legit top four team and a perennial premiership contender.

I think we’re definitely on the right track. But I’m wary of assuming we’ll see automatic linear improvement next year.

This is a bit of a weird season. It’s a raffle. There seems to be a bit of a power vacuum at the top of the ladder. No great teams. 10 or 11 pretty good teams battling it out. We’ll probably see normality return next year with 4 or 5 legit flag contenders separating themselves from the pack.

Absolutely agree with all of what you have said. We're not the finished product and the cockiness of some makes me cringe cos it doesn't always work out as a perfect improvement arc. There's still lots of work (and some missing pieces) to take the next steps to genuine premiership contention.

The only caveat I will add is that whilst we may win 3 games and still be 9th and 'middle of the road', the usual jump from just outside finals/middle of the road to premiership contenders will not be as big a jump as it has been historically. Usually 9th has won 11 games for the year and the top two have won 17+. That's a massive gap. This season, we may end up 9th with 14 wins, with the top 2 on 15-16 wins. Whilst that means there's a huge number of clubs that could emerge as the contenders next season, the gap between middle and top is incredibly small, so the 'jump required' is not nearly what it has typically been. In fact, the form of the last 12 weeks over a season (easier said than done as Sydney and Carlton have shown) would be enough to make us contenders already.

 

[PerthBoy86]

I love that in both examples you've used, the team went on to win the flag in the next two seasons. Here's hoping something similar occurs.

Yes definitely good signs usually when teams go on runs late in the season - though may not be for Carlton this year.

 

[BEaston]

Oh maybe recency bias. Yeah Jamarra isn't that reliable either, I don't feel any of their goal kickers are. Weightman used to be but not so much now. Not sure what his stats are but Darcy might be with some practice. I feel West might be their most accurate set shot? But honestly have no idea, just my impression.

I think you mean primary bias, where you only remember the first piece of information received.

Weightman is a more accurate kick for goal than Tony Lockett actually. Good for 15th of all time in accuracy (min 50 shots).
This season, he's ranked 5th in accuracy out of the top 100 players for number of shots on goal.

 

[BEaston]

As a team we're pretty bad though. Bont and JUH would be the main culprits with large volume. Players like VDM and McNeil are bad as well but not many scoring shots.

 

[theiaofseed]

Will be interesting to see how Hawks go next year. if they beat Richmond and North to finish out the season, 7 of their 13 wins will have come against bottom 4 sides. They obviously won't be getting those double ups next year.

We've beaten the same number of top 8 teams as the Bulldogs. Worry about your own team.

 

[Bushdid911]

We've beaten the same number of top 8 teams as the Bulldogs. Worry about your own team.

Bit touchy there I see. And it's 5 top 8 wins for Dogs, 4 for you.

 

[theiaofseed]

Bit touchy there I see. And it's 5 top 8 wins for Dogs, 4 for you.

Whether its 4 or 5, both teams have performed to the same standard so why only question Hawthorns validity?

It's not about being touching, it's a case of calling out trolling.

 

[Bushdid911]

Whether its 4 or 5, both teams have performed to the same standard so why only question Hawthorns validity?

It's not about being touching, it's a case of calling out trolling.

If you think wondering how Hawks will go with a tougher fixture is trolling, you might want to skip every season preview then.

 

[goondog]

I hope Hawthorn gets a similar fixture to what the Dogs got for finishing 9th last year.

 

[Eternal Schism]

Hawthorn won't make finals.

Dogs can win anywhere on current form, are playing fantastic footy, and the sides above them on the ladder don't present someone who is out & out strongest.

Could have a run playing Geelong in Melbourne, before perhaps playing a side that have flaky finals records like Port.

Bulldogs likely to have a run akin to Blues last year.

 

[lordbob]

Yeah like our fixture in 2024 has been reflective of our 3rd last finish in 2023.

Here is a ranking of 2024 fixture from before the season began and based on 2023 opponent ladder position. Hawks had equal 5th hardest draw after finishing 3rd last. In comparison WB fixture was ranked =15th wtith GC and Stk

Every AFL club's 2024 fixture difficulty and the clubs they play twice

Here's how your club's draw compares to everyone else's👇

www.zerohanger.com

From the AFL website https://www.afl.com.au/news/1064206/who-has-the-hardest-draw-we-break-down-your-clubs-2024-fixture

our 3rd last finish earned us the 8th hardest draw. WB had 13th hardest.

How did the 2 teams that finished below the hawks? NM 18th hardest, WC 17th hardest. The team who finished above the hawks? GC got 16th hardest.

Not at all worried about what our draw next year will look like.

 

[NetworkNerd]

Yeah like our fixture in 2024 has been reflective of our 3rd last finish in 2023.

Here is a ranking of 2024 fixture from before the season began and based on 2023 opponent ladder position. Hawks had equal 5th hardest draw after finishing 3rd last. In comparison WB fixture was ranked =15th wtith GC and Stk

Every AFL club's 2024 fixture difficulty and the clubs they play twice

Here's how your club's draw compares to everyone else's👇

www.zerohanger.com

From the AFL website https://www.afl.com.au/news/1064206/who-has-the-hardest-draw-we-break-down-your-clubs-2024-fixture

our 3rd last finish earned us the 8th hardest draw. WB had 13th hardest.

How did the 2 teams that finished below the hawks? NM 18th hardest, WC 17th hardest. The team who finished above the hawks? GC got 16th hardest.

Not at all worried about what our draw next year will look like.

In a perfect even world it's double ups against the other teams in your third of the ladder plus an extra 'rivalry' matchup.

As current ladder stands it's double up against Bulldogs, Carlton, Essendon, Collingwood, Gold Coast and let's say Geelong as the extra rivalry double up

 

[theiaofseed]

I hope Hawthorn gets a similar fixture to what the Dogs got for finishing 9th last year.

So an easier one?

 

[HairyO]

Sadly we probably meet in an elimination final.

 

[PerthBoy86]

I think these two are pretty much equal now.

 

[My Tilly]

Sadly we probably meet in an elimination final.

Be a cracking final.
Strangely enough, favors Hawthorn at the MCG.

 

[hawkman]

With the Dogs can they put together 6 weeks of good footy that they will now need? Seems like they throw in a shocker every 3-4 weeks

Whereas I think we will be competitive every week but we may throw in a bad quarter but will be competitive the rest of the game. That bad quarter can be costly though