Carlton or Fremantle - Who finishes 8th?

[WWSD]

8th Fremantle 12W 8L 109.6%
9th Carlton 11W 9L 110.5%

Round 22
Gold Coast Suns vs Carlton @ Metricon Stadium
North Melbourne vs Fremantle @ Etihad Stadium

Round 23
Carlton vs St Kilda @ Etihad Stadium
Fremantle vs Melbourne @ Patersons Stadium

You would think that Carlton is almost certain to beat Gold Coast next week and Fremantle are also certain to beat Melbourne in Round 23. That means the clash between North vs Fremantle could be the deciding factor as to who finishes 8th, if Fremantle loses and Carlton defeat Gold Coast then Carlton will be 8th, then if Carlton beats St Kilda, then it really depends on who wins by the bigger margin in the final round as both teams have the same percent.

 

[kaiserchief13]

What are their percentages?

 

[Quinz]

12 wins 109.61% Fremantle
11 wins 110.52% Carlton

I think Carlton have the edge because the Saints will be out of contention in the last round while North will be desperate for a win next week.

 

[Proud SJW]

Freo have a game in hand over Carlton, so percentages are almost irrelevent at this point between the two. The only way Carlton get in the eight above Freo is if Carlton beat Saints or Freo lose to Melbourne, really. Or both.
Never thought I'd barracking for the saints to win a game.

 

[BananaOnTheRun]

What are their percentages?

freo 109.61
carl 110.52
after today's results.

 

[kaiserchief13]

Freo have a game in hand over Carlton, so percentages are almost irrelevent at this point between the two. The only way Carlton get in the eight above Freo is if Carlton beat Saints or Freo lose to Melbourne, really. Or both.
Never thought I'd barracking for the saints to win a game.

Err no they aren't. Freo beat Melbourne but lose to North and Carlton win both their games, which lets face it is the most probable scenario and it comes down to percentage with both teams on 13 wins.

 

[Proud SJW]

So the crux of your argument is:
You hope Fremantle loses to North and you hope Carlton beats Saints.
Nice input. Thought I'd already covered it with the "never thought I'd be barracking for the Saints" comment but there ya go I suppose.

 

[kaiserchief13]

So the crux of your argument is:
You hope Fremantle loses to North and you hope Carlton beats Saints.
Nice input. Thought I'd already covered it with the "never thought I'd be barracking for the Saints" comment but there ya go I suppose.

Nothing to do with HOPE. It is the likely scenario.

 

[SE_Blue]

If it was any other team except my own in the battle with Freo, I'd like to see the Dockers finish 8th and the Eagles 5th. A derby final would be unbelievable.

 

[Jetau]

You'd think Carlton will beat Gold Coast by 100 points next week, but Freo might do similar against Melbourne. It's really hard to say. What I've just realised is that as Carlton v Saints is on the Sunday of Round 23, Freo may not know if they're in the eight after their game on Saturday night.

 

[Proud SJW]

Nothing to do with HOPE. It is the likely scenario.

Yeah, well, you may be right.
I, however, am detecting the simplistic optimism of a WC fan with a stain in his undies contemplating a Freo 8th WC 5th finish come finals.

 

[Jetau]

Actually there is another possibility. Both Freo and Carlton could make the eight with North missing out. Collingwood have started well against them tonight, and so if Freo beats them next week Carlton could sneak in at North's expense.

 

[Proud SJW]

Actually there is another possibility. Both Freo and Carlton could make the eight with North missing out. Collingwood have started well against them tonight, and so if Freo beats them next week Carlton could sneak in at North's expense.

North still have GWS to come. them not making the 8 is a possibility, but unlikely.
It's been a great season though hasn't it

 

[DG-Man]

Prob Carlton. They would be super dangerous as well. 13-9 with having key players miss huge chunks would be a good effort. Judd, Murphy, Gibbs, Simpson, Scotland, Robinson, Carrazzo, McLean all plying at one time would be hard to counter. Will come down to Saints game. Think Kangas will roll Freo here.

 

[WCErevival]

If Freo make the finals it will be most likely in 7th.

 

[Max zero]

Yeah, well, you may be right.
I, however, am detecting the simplistic optimism of a WC fan with a stain in his undies contemplating a Freo 8th WC 5th finish come finals.

Of course, we would lose all our home ground advantage and you get an undeserved neutral venue.

 

[Proud SJW]

Prob Carlton. They would be super dangerous as well. 13-9 with having key players miss huge chunks would be a good effort. Judd, Murphy, Gibbs, Simpson, Scotland, Robinson, Carrazzo, McLean all plying at one time would be hard to counter. Will come down to Saints game. Think Kangas will roll Freo here.

Honestly, and in spite of a being a Freo fan, I don't agree. Carlton play a similar game to a few sides in the top 8 who play the same game, but play it better. Freo play a different game.
I honestly do not believe that Carlton are finals "threat" as such, but Freo throw something different into the mix. I don't believe Freo are a finals threat either, just saying Carlton are going to get rolled out of the 8 on a landslide if they make it...but Freo may not be.

 

[Proud SJW]

Of course, we would lose all our home ground advantage and you get an undeserved neutral venue.

So.. basically you're saying you'd be relying on a home ground advantage if Freo wasn't there to throw a spanner into your plans?
Just asking for clarification.

 

[Syd]

From the two, Carlton have the edge with Waite back and their forward line refocused.

Neither has the srs credential to challenge IMO, so who cares.

 

[Max zero]

So.. basically you're saying you'd be relying on a home ground advantage if Freo wasn't there to throw a spanner into your plans?
Just asking for clarification.

No relying on it but we would of earned it finishing 5th. Why should we give up an advantage we earned to a team that did not?

 

[The Speaker]

No relying on it but we would of earned it finishing 5th. Why should we give up an advantage we earned to a team that did not?

Same reason Melbourne teams give up home ground advantage pretty often for finals?

 

[whatis]

Saints could play the kids and just throw the match against the Blues thus gifting them a finals place at Freo's expense. A sneaky way to get some payback against Ross Lyon for leaving.

*edit* I mean if the Saints' season is over anyway at that point..

 

[Sin City]

Saints could play the kids and just throw the match against the Blues thus gifting them a finals place at Freo's expense. A sneaky way to get some payback against Ross Lyon for leaving.

That would be much appreciated, but will never happen.

 

[Silent Alarm]

I don't know how confident I could be with us playing for percentage. Sure, it's Melbourne, but we never truly kill teams. An educated guess says 45 points, so we really need the Saints to do us a favour.

Oh, and this is under the assumption that North Melbs beat Fremantle.

 

[BananaOnTheRun]

Saints could play the kids and just throw the match against the Blues thus gifting them a finals place at Freo's expense. A sneaky way to get some payback against Ross Lyon for leaving. I mean if the Saints' season is over anyway at that point..

maybe if the admin were playing, but i don't think most of the players would be holding a grudge against him. in fact, brendan goddard might be doing everything he can to help out...