eth-dog
Tier 1 WW Player
Observations:
Essendon: A nice win against Gold Coast has confirmed that Essendon will be playing finals in 2014, but it was a bit of a "meh" game, with only a couple of standout performers but only 1 or 2 bad games. David Zaharakis, Michael Hurley and Brendan Goddard were the 3 stand-outs, the first 2 when Gold Coast hit the front in the final quarter.
Carlton: Horrendous display against Port Adelaide, no desire, no heart and complete lack of intensity. Captain Marc Murphy went off with concussion and (correct me if I'm wrong Carlton fans) will be in doubt this week against the old enemy.
Head to head (last 5): Essendon 4-1 Carlton
Form guide
Essendon 3 W, 2 L
Carlton 2 W, 3 L
Sportsbet odds:
Essendon: $1.40, line ($1.85): -18.5
Carlton: $2.85, line ($1.85): +18.5
Possible sides:
Essendon vs Carlton
B: Touhy - Jamison - Watson
F: Chapman - Bellchambers - Watson
HB: Sheehan - Rowe - Docherty
HF: Howlett - Daniher - Goddard
C: Lucas - Judd - Gibbs
C: Zaharakis - Myers - Stanton
HF: Bell - Waite - Menzel
HB: Hibberd - Steinberg - Dempsey
F: White - Casboult - Yarran
B: Hurley - Carlisle - Baguley
R: Wood - Curnow - Simpson
R: Ryder - Heppell - Hocking
I: Carrazzo - Graham - Cripps
I: Colyer - Z Merrett - Ambrose
S: Holman
S: Winderlich
Carlton defence vs Essendon forward line
Carlton's defence looks shaky, conceding 90 points/game over the last 5 matches, and small forwards getting on top of them with players like Gray, Motlop, Ballantyne and L Thomas kicking 3 or more goals each. With that in mind Paul Chapman or Jason Winderlich loom as the main threats for Carlton, who kicked 8 between them when the 2 sides met earlier in the year. With Daniher and Carlisle (if Hooker gets up) not needed to be the ruck combination this time it makes them a bigger threat as well. Tuohy and Docherty are the threats for Essendon coming off half back with great skills.
Midfield battle (rucks included)
Essendon's midfield is looking very strong, back to full strength. Brendan Goddard's return to form coincided with his return to the midfield and with big performances from Zaharakis and Myers, they're looking strong. The difficult thing for Carlton will be whether they send Carrazzo to Watson, Zaharakis, Heppell or Goddard, with Curnow likely to do his usual job on Brent Stanton. Carlton wise, without Murphy it looks significantly weaker, and if Hocking gets on top of Judd the midfield will be reliant upon Simpson and Gibbs to carry them over the line. The support crew of Myers, Merrett, Howlett and Colyer look stronger and more experienced than Carlton's of Graham, Cripps, Bell and Lucas. In terms of the ruck battle, Ryder should be able to get ahold of Wood, both in the ruck and around the ground, especially off a 43 hitout, 2 goals game against the Suns.
Carlton forward line vs Essendon defence
Essendon's defence is easily the strongest part of the side. Steinberg, Hurley, and either Carlisle or Hooker should be able to cover Simon White, Casboult and Waite, although the latter 2 have had good games against the Bombers previously. Menzel and Yarran may struggle against Baguly and Dempsey, who have been one of the best small defenders combination in the AFL since Dempsey's return. Coming off HB, all should be threats, with Steinberg's and Carlisle/Hooker's intercept marking and the others footskills coming out of defence.
X-Factor player
David Myers has been on the improve this season, averaging 21 disposals while playing in the midfield with a huge left boot being a massive weapon for the dons. Usually going head to head with the oppositions "hard nut" like Priddis or Greene, he comes out on top most of the time. The vision has improved and should be a factor in this game
Keys for each side
Essendon:
My tip
With Carlton's mounting injury list, poor performances and lack of on field leadership as well as a relatively strong Essendon at this time of year, Essendon by 45
Essendon: A nice win against Gold Coast has confirmed that Essendon will be playing finals in 2014, but it was a bit of a "meh" game, with only a couple of standout performers but only 1 or 2 bad games. David Zaharakis, Michael Hurley and Brendan Goddard were the 3 stand-outs, the first 2 when Gold Coast hit the front in the final quarter.
Carlton: Horrendous display against Port Adelaide, no desire, no heart and complete lack of intensity. Captain Marc Murphy went off with concussion and (correct me if I'm wrong Carlton fans) will be in doubt this week against the old enemy.
Head to head (last 5): Essendon 4-1 Carlton
Form guide
Essendon 3 W, 2 L
Carlton 2 W, 3 L
Sportsbet odds:
Essendon: $1.40, line ($1.85): -18.5
Carlton: $2.85, line ($1.85): +18.5
Possible sides:
Essendon vs Carlton
B: Touhy - Jamison - Watson
F: Chapman - Bellchambers - Watson
HB: Sheehan - Rowe - Docherty
HF: Howlett - Daniher - Goddard
C: Lucas - Judd - Gibbs
C: Zaharakis - Myers - Stanton
HF: Bell - Waite - Menzel
HB: Hibberd - Steinberg - Dempsey
F: White - Casboult - Yarran
B: Hurley - Carlisle - Baguley
R: Wood - Curnow - Simpson
R: Ryder - Heppell - Hocking
I: Carrazzo - Graham - Cripps
I: Colyer - Z Merrett - Ambrose
S: Holman
S: Winderlich
Carlton defence vs Essendon forward line
Carlton's defence looks shaky, conceding 90 points/game over the last 5 matches, and small forwards getting on top of them with players like Gray, Motlop, Ballantyne and L Thomas kicking 3 or more goals each. With that in mind Paul Chapman or Jason Winderlich loom as the main threats for Carlton, who kicked 8 between them when the 2 sides met earlier in the year. With Daniher and Carlisle (if Hooker gets up) not needed to be the ruck combination this time it makes them a bigger threat as well. Tuohy and Docherty are the threats for Essendon coming off half back with great skills.
Midfield battle (rucks included)
Essendon's midfield is looking very strong, back to full strength. Brendan Goddard's return to form coincided with his return to the midfield and with big performances from Zaharakis and Myers, they're looking strong. The difficult thing for Carlton will be whether they send Carrazzo to Watson, Zaharakis, Heppell or Goddard, with Curnow likely to do his usual job on Brent Stanton. Carlton wise, without Murphy it looks significantly weaker, and if Hocking gets on top of Judd the midfield will be reliant upon Simpson and Gibbs to carry them over the line. The support crew of Myers, Merrett, Howlett and Colyer look stronger and more experienced than Carlton's of Graham, Cripps, Bell and Lucas. In terms of the ruck battle, Ryder should be able to get ahold of Wood, both in the ruck and around the ground, especially off a 43 hitout, 2 goals game against the Suns.
Carlton forward line vs Essendon defence
Essendon's defence is easily the strongest part of the side. Steinberg, Hurley, and either Carlisle or Hooker should be able to cover Simon White, Casboult and Waite, although the latter 2 have had good games against the Bombers previously. Menzel and Yarran may struggle against Baguly and Dempsey, who have been one of the best small defenders combination in the AFL since Dempsey's return. Coming off HB, all should be threats, with Steinberg's and Carlisle/Hooker's intercept marking and the others footskills coming out of defence.
X-Factor player
David Myers has been on the improve this season, averaging 21 disposals while playing in the midfield with a huge left boot being a massive weapon for the dons. Usually going head to head with the oppositions "hard nut" like Priddis or Greene, he comes out on top most of the time. The vision has improved and should be a factor in this game
Keys for each side
Essendon:
- Defensive lapses. The team can sometimes let a team get a run on, that's the stuff that can kill you come finals time
- Defensive pressure. Essendon has the best efficiency with ball in hand, so pressuring them is very important.
My tip
With Carlton's mounting injury list, poor performances and lack of on field leadership as well as a relatively strong Essendon at this time of year, Essendon by 45
