Carlton - What do Carlton do with the number 1 pick?

[Tushay]

Carlton will take the best available with pick #1. That will be Lukosius. No recruiting manager will take anyone else given the hype. You don't get fired for buying IBM.

Using the draft index value:
If Carlton have pick #1, 3000 points
If Adelaide have picks #8 and 9, 3020 points

So pick #1 equals #8 and #9.

Given that Lukosius is reportedly so good, and AFC are keen to have him, that "equal" outcome won't quite work. So Crows will need a significant sweetener. Either a second round pick or Mitch McGovern my guess.

So #1 for #8, #9 and Mitch (with maybe a late third going back the other way).

The alternative of going to the draft and taking Lukosius is very attractive. Did it with Gibbs and that worked out well.

 

[Tushay]

I don’t think Adelaide will try and deal with Carlton. Carlton should take pick 1 and go for the best midfielder.

I think Adelaide will try and deal with Brisbane and gold coast to try and secure pick 2 or 3. Won’t cost as much and seem to be easier to deal with

Won't happen. Lukosius will be #1.

 

[Drewie11]

Won't happen. Lukosius will be #1.

I don’t think he will be

 

[Cleric]

Carlton will take the best available with pick #1. That will be Lukosius. No recruiting manager will take anyone else given the hype. You don't get fired for buying IBM.

Using the draft index value:
If Carlton have pick #1, 3000 points
If Adelaide have picks #8 and 9, 3020 points

So pick #1 equals #8 and #9.

Given that Lukosius is reportedly so good, and AFC are keen to have him, that "equal" outcome won't quite work. So Crows will need a significant sweetener. Either a second round pick or Mitch McGovern my guess.

So #1 for #8, #9 and Mitch (with maybe a late third going back the other way).

The alternative of going to the draft and taking Lukosius is very attractive. Did it with Gibbs and that worked out well.

Mitch McGovern is a sweetner? Lol.

 

[Tushay]

I don’t think he will be

I don't think predictions are your forte Drewie.

 

[Tushay]

Mitch McGovern is a sweetner? Lol.

Do you read every second word?

 

[Drewie11]

I don't think predictions are your forte Drewie.

Let’s see, I think you guys will take Walsh

 

[Cleric]

Do you read every second word?

Mitch is worth a top 10 pick, you think he is a second. Lol.
Keep your pick 1.

 

[Tushay]

Mitch is worth a top 10 pick, you think he is a second. Lol.
Keep your pick 1.

Deal!

 

[Dangerousfield]

No way anyone can offer enough for pick 1. Carlton will take it to the ND and pick Lukocious. All pressure on them to make it work but nothing else they can do now Sloane re-signed.

Crows may now make a play for Rankine with a Gold Coast trade, much easier to get across the line.

 

[Lindsay_Gilbee]

Mitch McGovern isn’t worth a top 10 pick.

If Adelaide really want #1 then their first rounder, Melb’s first rounder and Carlton’s second rounder should be the deal. Carlton hold all the cards.

If they really want Rankine they should deal with Saints.

 

[Cleric]

Mitch McGovern isn’t worth a top 10 pick.

If Adelaide really want #1 then their first rounder, Melb’s first rounder and Carlton’s second rounder should be the deal. Carlton hold all the cards.

If they really want Rankine they should deal with Saints.

Yeah he is, you used pick 1 for Paddy, and he aint half the forward Gov is.
But carry on.

 

[Lystics AFL Podcast]

For Carlton to move forward they need elite mids. That means either taking Walsh as pick 1 because he's too good and safe to fail, or trading Pick 1 with Gold Coast for Pick 3 Lynch compo + Aaron Hall or Pick 3 + Ess 2nd (currently 25) + Geel 2nd (currently 30).

Worst case scenario is Gold Coast draft Walsh and Smith with 1 and 2, then you get Lukosius anyway + bonus Hall or some picks.
Best case, you get Bailey Smith to rebuild you midfield which you really need anyway.

 

[Crow till I die]

Mitch McGovern isn’t worth a top 10 pick.

If Adelaide really want #1 then their first rounder, Melb’s first rounder and Carlton’s second rounder should be the deal. Carlton hold all the cards.

If they really want Rankine they should deal with Saints.

It might be that if Carlton were prepared at all to trade that pick, the could want the crows 2018 & 2019 1st rounders + the melbourne 1st rounder for pick 1 (maybe a 2nd rounder might come back to the crows in that). If the crows could deal with Gold Coast to send one or two good established 1st team players for their likely priority pick, that could see the crows get both of men at the draft.

 

[Blue87]

Mitch is definately not worth a top 10 pick. in his first year playing 23 games only averaged 10 disposals and kicked 32 goals. Played 13 games last year and only 8 so far this year. Doesn’t take the number one defender when he plays and is surrounded by a pretty good forward line. Not what i would call elite.

 

[Lindsay_Gilbee]

Yeah he is, you used pick 1 for Paddy, and he aint half the forward Gov is.
But carry on.

1. I didn’t use pick one on anybody.
2. My club hasn’t even had a pick one since Cooney.
3. If you’re gonna use that logic, Saints used pick one on Riewoldt, and McGovern isn’t 1/50th the footballer he is.

Crows supporters when it comes to trading, I swear man..

 

[bludrew79]

My belief is that we want to draft Walsh or Smith...
Which means if we trade away pick 1, then we need pick 2-->5 in return to guarantee one of them...

Don't know how that happens, but I cant see SOS giving up pick 1 without having a path to a top 5 pick in return.

All else fails, we might just take the best mid available pick 1 and back in Curnow&McKay long term

 

[Gdb1963]

Do we believe live trading will happen? If it does Carlton will nominate Lukosius. Carlton will push hard maybe get pick 4 and another pick/player from Adelaide. Adelaide take Lukosius. Gold Coast take King Bros - hope they stay together to take Lynch/May sting. Carlton will then try to get Walsh and Bailey Smith- maybe a pick to pick up a 22-27 yo Mid-fielder.

 

[Peel67skin]

Do we believe live trading will happen? If it does Carlton will nominate Lukosius. Carlton will push hard maybe get pick 4 and another pick/player from Adelaide. Adelaide take Lukosius. Gold Coast take King Bros - hope they stay together to take Lynch/May sting. Carlton will then try to get Walsh and Bailey Smith- maybe a pick to pick up a 22-27 yo Mid-fielder.

I not disagree with you , but with 2mp ,Crossley around I don't see a need to get the King Bros . The tactic I assume GC will do are getting Mid in the first round , and go for players not draft previously or state league mature age in the third round ( Ben Brown, Rory Lobb , Mitch McGowan type )kpp.
Ben Brown - overlooked in three draft
Mitch McGowan - overlooked in one draft
Rory lobb- overlook in one draft .

 

[Kreuuuzeurns]

Mitch is worth a top 10 pick, you think he is a second. Lol.
Keep your pick 1.

Who is giving up a pick in the top 10 for McGovern? Especially this year?

Carlton is happy to take JL, just as we were happy to keep Gibbs. You need to give us an offer to good to refuse.

 

[Masqualero]

All else fails, we might just take the best mid available pick 1 and back in Curnow&McKay long term

This is the worst possible outcome because if we want a mid we can trade down and get more value.

I think take the best kid with pick 1 and try to get mature mids to the club, we have a few talented young mids with almost no one to learn from other than Cripps.

 

[Crow till I die]

Who is giving up a pick in the top 10 for McGovern? Especially this year?

Carlton is happy to take JL, just as we were happy to keep Gibbs. You need to give us an offer to good to refuse.

Hypothetically what if a 7 year deal at 1.2-1.3 million per season to come home to the crows sits there waiting for him after the 2 year contract is up..might be an offer too good to refuse - for Lukosius. Does club culture beat that

 

[Kreuuuzeurns]

Hypothetically what if a 7 year deal at 1.2-1.3 million per season to come home to the crows sits there waiting for him after the 2 year contract is up..might be an offer too good to refuse - for Lukosius. Does club culture beat that

You didn’t even offer half of that for an AA Lever, and even so you got great compensation when he left.

Willing to take my chances there.

 

[Rusty_lucas]

Hypothetically what if a 7 year deal at 1.2-1.3 million per season to come home to the crows sits there waiting for him after the 2 year contract is up..might be an offer too good to refuse - for Lukosius. Does club culture beat that

Then Carlton will accept Matt Crouch and a top 10 pick (equivalent of the Tom Boyd deal). That will likely get the trade done

 

[Crow till I die]

You didn’t even offer half of that for an AA Lever, and even so you got great compensation when he left.

Willing to take my chances there.

Not saying it would happen but if the club thinks he is the one and can't trade for him this year, it might be something they gear towards and if a player when leaving nominates a club he wants to get to - he gets there and a deal is struck