Chelsea haven't found themselves under Di Matteo at all.AC, you really really love to play down your side's chances, don't you?
I have no idea why an informed football fan would expect us to win by 2 goals at Stamford Bridge. You just have to look at our recent CL history to get an idea. Without checking, looking at away games in knockout stages where we went to the next round (not counting Bayer Leverkusen), I can only think of Real last season where we beat them. Most away games have been draws (Lyon, Bayern, Chelsea, Arsenal, Milan...) and the occasional loss (Arsenal last season).
I think we are favourites but imo no more than Real were favourites this morning. Chelsea have found themselves again under Di Matteo and are definitely good enough to beat us and go to the final. The Chelsea games have always been tight - we've never been able to play as well like we did against Utd in the 2 finals for example.
A whole lot can happen tomorrow. We can dominate Chelsea, or Chelsea can overrun us, it's impossible to say. Chelsea definitely have the attacking strenght to hurt our defense which looked shaky in Milan. Then there's also still something like motivation, which may be stronger for Chelsea's players.
Unless we dominate and miss several golden opportunities I'll be very happy with a score draw. 0-0 is always tricky, you almost may as well lose 2-1 because then at least you know what you're up to for the return.
Chelsea's last 3 home results in the league;
1-0 v Stoke who are a shit team away from home - look at their away record over three years in the PL
0-0 v Tottenham - Spurs sat back but had the better chances
2-1 v Wigan - lucky win. two offside goals.
And I could go further back but it's pretty similar to this. (lots of unconvincing home wins)
Chelsea lost to Aston Villa at Stamford Bridge. Aston Villa!
In the CL?
Unconvincing 2-1 win against 10 man Benfica.
They have improved but not that much. Maybe better defensively but they don't look much more threatening going forward. They've just been luckier than they were before. If anything.
The bit about Real is rubbish. Bayern are arguably the third best side in Europe and are a very, very hard side to beat at home. Their results at home in the CL this season have been very convincing. Real's tie and away fixture was much harder.
Yes, the Chelsea games have always been tight. THIS IS NOT THE SAME CHELSEA TEAM. A lot of the same players yes but very old and slow players who are noticeably past their best and consistently struggle to impact matches. They can't dominate opponents like they used to regularly. Barca are better than they were three years ago. The comparison to the old matches is wrong for a number of reasons and while Chelsea will try and make it tight they won't be able to worry you at Stamford Bridge as consistently as they used to be able to.
I do respect your stats re: Barca away in knockout fixtures but I'm basing my predictions on having seen Chelsea over the last 7 or 8 years since Mourinho and this is as poor as I've seen them look in attack. They rely a lot on Mata. Put it that way.
If he doesn't play well they lack the ability to penetrate good defences I think.
Chelsea 1 Barca 3
oh and btw why would lampard even bring up messi not scoring against chelsea.... he was some player three years ago.... he has gone up a level since that time.... should've let that one slide....
