Prediction Changes v Port

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Lycett against Ryder will have the same impact as Vardy v Ryder last time. Lycett is a much better ruck than Vardy but in his first game back against the most in form ruckmen. He might actually run out of steam a bit and that might mean using more of Gov and Petrie in the ruck. That would suck more for our midfield.

People also need to chill on his performance on the weekend. He played a dung heap of a side and I wouldn't be surprised if his opponent was a few cm's under 200cm.

Had a look into it. The guy who had 15 hit outs for East Fremantle was ex-Blue, Matthew Watson. He's listed as 195cm.

By the looks of things, he's actually East Freo's second ruck but their first guy is tap ruckman only an they dropped him to the reserves. Terrible call in hindsight.
 
In: Hurn, Partington, Kennedy, Priddis, Lycett, LeCras
Out: Wellingham (inj), Butler (inj), Mackenzie, Redden, Vardy (sore), Masten
Zero chance Pridda will play in the WAFL if he's fine. Sore or not, not sure if Vardy will go out Lycett, or if Petrie makes way, but neither really deserve to be dropped. Darling definitely won't be dropped (with Petrie staying up forward) after he had a good game. If Lecca comes back in, hopefully Parto can still make his debut, with Masto probably going out. Not sure who else would go out otherwise. Not confident it will happen though. Expecting this instead...
In: Hurn, LeCras, Kennedy, Priddis, Lycett
Out: Wellingham (inj), Butler (inj), Mackenzie/Barrass, Redden, Vardy (sore)
 
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I'd like to see the stats on the average distance of Hurn's kick outs this year compared to previously, and refined for kicks that go past the 50m line.

Feel he gets it past the 50m line less often, and when he does he's at 50-55m rather than 60-65m like previously. Doesn't help he doesn't have Nic Nat as a target either.

The average wouldn't be much, adjusting for short kicks in would ruin that. Remembering that to kick beyond the 50m line the ball only has to travel 40m so if Hurn was booming it he'd be putting it more like 70-75m but that is something we don't see. There's no doubt he's lost a lot of distance compared to when he first arrived on the scene, would not be the longest kick on our list anymore you wouldn't think- possibly not even top 5. Distance is less important that accuracy though and probably our biggest problem with kick ins is not on the kicker but on the lack of options being provided. Its really down the the work rate of the other 17 players, hitting a target from a standing start from within a protected zone should be the easy part. In an ideal world you have a ruckman and centre half forward who are elite contested marks providing the best options and Yeo/Darling types providing other options. Teams are pretty effective at defending against kick ins with a wall these days though which makes life difficult.

I'd probably prefer Hurn being used as the short option and devising some set plays around that. Something like we set up around the 50 at the kick in as if the ball is going to be bombed long to a contest, instead chip short to Hurn who immediately hits one of several targets running to space on the wing. Cause whats the point of Hurn kicking to a pack of 20 players at 50-60 or chipping short to someone like Gaff who's going to butcher the next kick.
 
The average wouldn't be much, adjusting for short kicks in would ruin that. Remembering that to kick beyond the 50m line the ball only has to travel 40m so if Hurn was booming it he'd be putting it more like 70-75m but that is something we don't see. There's no doubt he's lost a lot of distance compared to when he first arrived on the scene, would not be the longest kick on our list anymore you wouldn't think- possibly not even top 5. Distance is less important that accuracy though and probably our biggest problem with kick ins is not on the kicker but on the lack of options being provided. Its really down the the work rate of the other 17 players, hitting a target from a standing start from within a protected zone should be the easy part. In an ideal world you have a ruckman and centre half forward who are elite contested marks providing the best options and Yeo/Darling types providing other options. Teams are pretty effective at defending against kick ins with a wall these days though which makes life difficult.

I'd probably prefer Hurn being used as the short option and devising some set plays around that. Something like we set up around the 50 at the kick in as if the ball is going to be bombed long to a contest, instead chip short to Hurn who immediately hits one of several targets running to space on the wing. Cause whats the point of Hurn kicking to a pack of 20 players at 50-60 or chipping short to someone like Gaff who's going to butcher the next kick.

Have always wondered why we dont do this more often.
 
Lycett's opponent on the weekend was definitely undersized and had next to no backup whereas Slyce had Giles in support to completely work the East Fremantle rucks over. So his hitout numbers do need to be kept in perspective but his work around the ground was also good - 21 possessions for a big bloke in wet conditions especially when a lot of those were ground balls is a good effort. He also ran the game out well so fitness I don't think should be an issue

In a perfect world he'd have one more WAFL game to make sure he's cherry ripe for AFL but EP have a bye this week and I don't think the club will want him sitting out a week of football. I think he'll get a recall for Port.

With JK possibly being ready for a return as well it means two talls who played well will be omitted. Think that Petrie makes way for JK as full forward and one of Emac or Barass makes way for Lycett with Gov returning to defence and Vardy playing forward/ruck to support Lycett
 
He only had 16 hit outs.

Only the second time since Giles was dropped that he failed to record 20 hitouts. The other time was against Gold Coast where he was used only sparingly in the ruck, particularly in the first half, and had 14ho compared with Petrie's 21. He's been up against better ruckman than Tom Campbell in that time.

I'd say either he was troubled by his shoulder, or he just had a poor game up until the last ten minutes.

If he's fit I'd prefer that he partners Lycett and Petrie misses, which is harsh on Petrie who's done nothing wrong at all.
 
Can't see Vardy being rested unless he is seriously injured. He is playing his best footy ever in a position he is not designed to play.
If JK is back and they bring in Lycett then Petrie misses out, Vardy plays CHF.

Petrie is clearly a better forward than Vardy.

People overrating Vardy massively in this thread. A goal and a few contested marks against the Dogs looks like turning into the Tunbridge went hard that one time that sees some overrate a player by a lot.
 
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Lycett would have put plenty of miles in the legs while out with a shoulder. He will be fine.
Imo match fitness and track work is poles apart. We have had players over the years return from injury and have good track work leading up but run out of puff soon.
 

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I want to see six of Barrass, Mackenzie, Schofield, McGovern, Darling, Kennedy, Petrie, Vardy, Lycett.
The best flexiblity if you take 6 of those is:
Barrass/EMac down back
Darling/Kennedy up forward
Lycett ruck
McGovern swingman

Apologies to Schofield, Petrie, Vardy who have done nothing wrong.

If want to play McGovern down back i'm open to dropping on of Barrass/Emac and bringing in Petrie as forward/ruck back up.
 
The best flexiblity if you take 6 of those is:
Barrass/EMac down back
Darling/Kennedy up forward
Lycett ruck
McGovern swingman

Apologies to Schofield, Petrie, Vardy who have done nothing wrong.

If want to play McGovern down back i'm open to dropping on of Barrass/Emac and bringing in Petrie as forward/ruck back up.

I'd drop Barrass personally. Think EMac deserves the full back spot and Gov fits well at CHB.

Picking two of Vardy/Petrie/Lycett is bloody hard though.
 
I'd drop Barrass personally. Think EMac deserves the full back spot and Gov fits well at CHB.

Picking two of Vardy/Petrie/Lycett is bloody hard though.
Support you on Mackenzie.

In terms of structures, I would like to know what changes in the forward line have enabled Jack to improve. He is best as a 3rd tall and is it Petire or McGovern or Vardy that is freeing him up?

Good to have these dilemmas for selection.
 
Imo match fitness and track work is poles apart. We have had players over the years return from injury and have good track work leading up but run out of puff soon.

He won't get any fitter spending a week on the sidelines and we can cover for him if he is blowing a bit in the 4th by resting him forward where he can still clunk a mark.

If its raining itll be pretty contested and not a free flowing jog fest. I reckon play him if he is no chance of reinjuring himself, which a few games at WAFL has proven. He needs to get touch at AFL and build continuity with the mids should we have a real finals tilt.
 
Petrie is clearly a better forward than Vardy.

People overrating Vardy massively in this thread. A goal and a few contested marks against the Dogs looks like turning into the Tunbridge went had that one time that sees some overrate a player by a lot.

Agree on that and the two careers say that but Vardy has been injured his whole career and we are talking a CHF here not a FF. Kennedy will play FF and if we need a CHF I would choose Vardy over Petrie but that is just my view.
 
He won't get any fitter spending a week on the sidelines and we can cover for him if he is blowing a bit in the 4th by resting him forward where he can still clunk a mark.

If its raining itll be pretty contested and not a free flowing jog fest. I reckon play him if he is no chance of reinjuring himself, which a few games at WAFL has proven. He needs to get touch at AFL and build continuity with the mids should we have a real finals tilt.
Depending on Vardy and if it rains. If Vardy is fit and there s rain then I'd just rest him till we play Freo and he gets Sean Darcy as a match up. If it rains then the contested nature of the game means that it's gonna be physically taxing game. He won't have an impact up forward in the rain as well.

Another thing I would like to see is do is get lycett to really earn it because he gets a free ride into the team sometimes and he gets complacent because of it.
 
Agree on that and the two careers say that but Vardy has been injured his whole career and we are talking a CHF here not a FF. Kennedy will play FF and if we need a CHF I would choose Vardy over Petrie but that is just my view.
I'm talking just this season. Petrie has been clearly superior as a forward this year.

He would be better as a FF and would be better as a CHF.
 
I don't want priddis to come in.
redden had a decent game.
In Nelson, Hurn, Jk,

Out: masten, butler and Wellingham

Priddis, Lecras, schofiled wafl until their form warrants
 

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Prediction Changes v Port

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