News Charlie and the Lions Factory - the Everlasting Charlie Cameron Trade Thread

[WA Lion]

Quite. And earlier in this thread I said I didn't like the Crows approaching a contracted player, with Gibbs the example. And I still don't. Further, Adelaide has been clear early on this trade period that 'they learn' and that 'Gibbs is a contracted player to another club and there's nothing to talk about'. I said earlier - its time this disrespect for contracted players by everyone (us included) stopped IMO.

I think we would all love the see the true value of a contract return but I fear those days are long gone.

I think AFL will go the way of European soccer personally. With a year remaining on a players contract, Soccer teams will go to the player and say time to sign an extension, and if the player declines they are pretty much immediately for sale to maximise the return. I suspect AFL will go down that road to be honest.

 

[SRH17]

Quite. And earlier in this thread I said I didn't like the Crows approaching a contracted player, with Gibbs the example. And I still don't. Further, Adelaide has been clear early on this trade period that 'they learn' and that 'Gibbs is a contracted player to another club and there's nothing to talk about'. I said earlier - its time this disrespect for contracted players by everyone (us included) stopped IMO.

But you cant just go "oh we've learned" now that is what suits the clubs agenda. I know the Crows aren't the one that let the geenie out of the bottle, but to think that we are going to go back to a time when contracts were meant to be honored from start to finish is pure fantasy.

 

[spotthedog1]

I hope we've moved on. Cameron would add something to our best 22 but it's not hard to find a decent small forward.

Concentrate on getting 2 top 6 picks or 3 in the first 15 with points to match Ballenden.

Agree with this 100%. Charlie is good, but pick 20 is the most he'd possibly be worth. Concerned that this has come out as our starting negotiating point. If this doesn't get it done, then I reckon wait a year and pick him up for a pick around 30-40. Also likely his value won't be inflated by one awesome game this time next year (just based on him having 2-3 good games over the entire 2017 season). Fine with us getting it done at pick 20. Will be pissed if we let go of 12.

We don't come out of this as bad guys. We aren't competing in the next 12 months. Let him stay. In 12 months, talk again. I can understand Adelaide's point of view though, and don't think they're being unreasonable. For mine, their thinking is:
- they're in flag window NOW and he's best 22. Trading him weakens their shot at the flag in 2018.
- They've copped a lot of trade-outs recently, and their players are viewing it as easy to request a trade. Better to lower his value a bit, but send a message to your playing list that you aren't a training school before they move back to Vic... It's what we should've done with someone like Docherty or Polec (basically any of them who nominated specific clubs). Would've been worth sending one (the most painful, or the club offering the most unders) to the PSD for nothing to send a message to our list.

On a side note, it is interesting that most clubs like to target out-of-contract players. We seem to target in-contract players. Not a great position to be in. Overpaid for Beams. Overpaid for Bastinac and Bell (though I think Bell was out of contract?). Now offered a bit overs for Cameron.

 

[Johnny Bananas]

While it doesn't hurt Brisbane to wait a year, I fail to see how it benefits Adelaide. Sure, they will have access to a young player who is occasionally great for 12 months, but at what cost? Even if Cameron has a belter of a 2018, its unlikely his trade value increases with time, particularly as he'll be uncontracted.

Adelaide just made a GF. Their premiership window is right now and it isn't going to last forever. On top of that they just lost Jake Lever. Yeah, the picks in return are nice, but in general, rookies do not contribute as much in their first two years compared to a more mature player who has adapted to the league and knows the team much better.

If Adelaide's focus is on winning a flag, they're better off keeping Cameron because the value he'll give them in next year's flag push is greater than practically anyone they could draft with the pick they get in return. They'll likely still get something of value for him next year anyway, and there's always the chance that he dumps his girlfriend or Eddie Betts gets him to change his mind.

It only benefits Adelaide to do the trade now if they're more interested in being competitive in 2022 than trying to win the flag next year.

Its really interesting - everyone applauded Carlton for enforcing Gibbs contract last year. We enforce Cameron and we're the bad guys. Typical double standards and it's getting really old.

I agree with you, that double standard is a shame. Personally I don't see the Crows as the bad guys here, that title goes to Cameron's manager. My only problem with the Crows is the part of their BF fanbase who think they can demand the earth in this trade and who show open disdain for the Lions.

 

[WA Lion]

Agree with this 100%. Charlie is good, but pick 20 is the most he'd possibly be worth. Concerned that this has come out as our starting negotiating point. If this doesn't get it done, then I reckon wait a year and pick him up for a pick around 30-40. Also likely his value won't be inflated by one awesome game this time next year (just based on him having 2-3 good games over the entire 2017 season). Fine with us getting it done at pick 20. Will be pissed if we let go of 12.

We don't come out of this as bad guys. We aren't competing in the next 12 months. Let him stay. In 12 months, talk again. I can understand Adelaide's point of view though, and don't think they're being unreasonable. For mine, their thinking is:
- they're in flag window NOW and he's best 22. Trading him weakens their shot at the flag in 2018.
- They've copped a lot of trade-outs recently, and their players are viewing it as easy to request a trade. Better to lower his value a bit, but send a message to your playing list that you aren't a training school before they move back to Vic... It's what we should've done with someone like Docherty or Polec (basically any of them who nominated specific clubs). Would've been worth sending one (the most painful, or the club offering the most unders) to the PSD for nothing to send a message to our list.

On a side note, it is interesting that most clubs like to target out-of-contract players. We seem to target in-contract players. Not a great position to be in. Overpaid for Beams. Overpaid for Bastinac and Bell (though I think Bell was out of contract?). Now offered a bit overs for Cameron.

Not arguing, genuine question, but did we target those players?

I thought Beams and Bell were both personal reasons (sick or recovering fathers IIRC) and Bastinac was widely floated as being available by North and we just happened to show the most interest. I don't remember us actively seeking them out (though with Beams I'm sure we would have been asking the question given the QLD element)

 

[Tendo Jones]

Adelaide just made a GF. Their premiership window is right now and it isn't going to last forever. On top of that they just lost Jake Lever. Yeah, the picks in return are nice, but in general, rookies do not contribute as much in their first two years compared to a more mature player who has adapted to the league and knows the team much better.

If Adelaide's focus is on winning a flag, they're better off keeping Cameron because the value he'll give them in next year's flag push is greater than practically anyone they could draft with the pick they get in return. They'll likely still get something of value for him next year anyway, and there's always the chance that he dumps his girlfriend or Eddie Betts gets him to change his mind.

It only benefits Adelaide to do the trade now if they're more interested in being competitive in 2022 than trying to win the flag next year.

You understand that the Crows can on-trade the pick we give them to get a replacement for Cameron? They don'y have to take it to the draft

 

[Johnny Bananas]

On a side note, it is interesting that most clubs like to target out-of-contract players. We seem to target in-contract players. Not a great position to be in. Overpaid for Beams. Overpaid for Bastinac and Bell (though I think Bell was out of contract?). Now offered a bit overs for Cameron.

We may have overpaid for Beams on paper but the club badly needed it at the time. The go home 5 had happened and we needed the PR and morale boost. Beams was (and is) the best Queenslander in the league, good for club culture and has become our captain within a couple of years. That trade was absolutely worth it.

 

[Johnny Bananas]

You understand that the Crows can on-trade the pick we give them to get a replacement for Cameron? They don'y have to take it to the draft

Certainly. And who do you propose they trade it for, given that Gibbs can probably already be had with their current picks, and Francis is a lesser player than Cameron?

 

[Harris Specter]

Don't mind Adelaide playing hard-ball. But the hypocrisy is real given the Gibbs situation.

 

[Tendo Jones]

Certainly. And who do you propose they trade it for, given that Gibbs can probably already be had with their current picks, and Francis is a lesser player than Cameron?

Frankly, don't care. But they could have given themselves an extra 4-5 days to figure it out if they just got the deal done.

 

[jackess]

We may have overpaid for Beams on paper but the club badly needed it at the time. The go home 5 had happened and we needed the PR and morale boost. Beams was (and is) the best Queenslander in the league, good for club culture and has become our captain within a couple of years. That trade was absolutely worth it.

It was a pretty weak draft as well. Pick 5 was de Goey who's been pretty average. They spent 25 on a dud and Crisp is a very limited footballer.

 

[spotthedog1]

Not arguing, genuine question, but did we target those players?

I thought Beams and Bell were both personal reasons (sick or recovering fathers IIRC) and Bastinac was widely floated as being available by North and we just happened to show the most interest. I don't remember us actively seeking them out (though with Beams I'm sure we would have been asking the question given the QLD element)

Valid point. I think it's reasonable to suggest the club probably had chats with managers, prompting that if the player asked for a trade, they'd be keen. We were also so eager to show that players actually wanted to play for us that we were willing to pay anything.

We may have overpaid for Beams on paper but the club badly needed it at the time. The go home 5 had happened and we needed the PR and morale boost. Beams was (and is) the best Queenslander in the league, good for club culture and has become our captain within a couple of years. That trade was absolutely worth it.

Disagree. You know what's better for PR than "this player wants to play for us!"? Winning flags. Beams won't help us win a flag. A pick 5 might have. I can understand why we did it, and at the time, I thought it was overpaying a bit, but still OK. In hindsight, with his injuries, and the list not being there still - he'll be well past his peak before we hit finals.

 

[Johnny Bananas]

Frankly, don't care. But they could have given themselves an extra 4-5 days to figure it out if they just got the deal done.

You should care if you want Cameron this year. It doesn't make sense for Adelaide to weaken their list if they can't bring in a better player using that pick. If the only thing stopping the Gibbs trade from going ahead was an early 2nd round pick, Cameron would be a Lion already.

 

[spotthedog1]

It was a pretty weak draft as well. Pick 5 was de Goey who's been pretty average. They spent 25 on a dud and Crisp is a very limited footballer.

Not as simple as that. No idea who we had at 5, but there were some good footballers in the first round.

 

[jackess]

Not as simple as that. No idea who we had at 5, but there were some good footballers in the first round.

But they know during trade period whether or not it's a strong draft and it was clearly quite a weak one. We've also had a lot of trouble with our early picks. In hindsight I have no issue missing out on pick 5 and I don't even rate Beams that highly.

 

[a mayes ing]

Disagree. You know what's better for PR than "this player wants to play for us!"? Winning flags. Beams won't help us win a flag. A pick 5 might have. I can understand why we did it, and at the time, I thought it was overpaying a bit, but still OK. In hindsight, with his injuries, and the list not being there still - he'll be well past his peak before we hit finals.

Pick 5 was DeGoey, Degoey is not going to help us win a flag. Yes hindsight but looks like a weak draft. So l would say it was a win/win or loss/loss.
He is our club captain but has had many injuries. Knowing what l know now l would do the trade because pick 5 and 25 and Crisp havent turned out special

 

[Pacman82]

What's the likelihood or ramifications of just waiting till next year to get Cameron & hang onto this years picks instead...? Could it be worth risking him changing his mind in exchange for more top young prospects & signing him for peanuts 12 months later...?

 

[Tendo Jones]

You should care if you want Cameron this year. It doesn't make sense for Adelaide to weaken their list if they can't bring in a better player using that pick. If the only thing stopping the Gibbs trade from going ahead was an early 2nd round pick, Cameron would be a Lion already.

I'd like Cameron this year, but I'm also happy to wait. When you look at other recent trades, pick 20 is a very fair offer, I'd even be ok with 18 if thats where it ends up. Crows holding him to his contract is a risky proposition. They will certainly get less for him in 12 months, and they also are gambling on whether a disgruntled player performs well enough to be worth hanging on to. That'd be a judgement on Cameron's character that the Crows have to make. Even in a premiership window, I think it hurts the Crows to hang on to him... and if they are still entertaining the idea of trading him, they should have just got it done so they could work on other moves.

 

[rusty08]

Just looking at the Saad trade, it's puts things in perspective. A former rookie selection himself and very handy, gone for a future second round pick ( probably 29 at worst) 20 for a contracted Cameron is bloody ample. I really hope we hold our nerve with this.

 

[Pns_blister]

I'm not sure I would want us to move on as such, but certainly I would hope that we don't have all our eggs in one basket.

I would love for us to turn 12 and 18 in to a top 10 (if a club is actually willing that is) and a 2nd round pick. This would essentially say to Crows that we are not budging from our offer, take it or leave it. There was some discussion last week that the Saints were open to trading one of 7 and 8, so 12 and 18 in exchange for 7 and their future 2nd rounder (they don't have their 2017 pick) or at least something to that effect with a willing club (if there are any)

How about Brisbane's 12 and 18 for collingwoods 6 and 36? On points they are exactly equal. Both valued at 2,253.

Would allow Brisbane another pick to cover ballenden bid, whilst moving further up the draft to enable us to land two of Brayshaw, cera, ldu, dow, Rayner and Stephenson.

Edit: And use 20 for Cameron

It's no secret Collingwood need key position players, and moving back in the draft would enable them to get more value for their picks. As the pointy end is all midfielders.

 

[Johnny Bananas]

Disagree. You know what's better for PR than "this player wants to play for us!"? Winning flags

This is irrelevant. Winning a flag is no sure thing (just look at Richmond's drought) and obviously wasn't a short term possibility.

Don't forget, we're in a state where AFL is a long way behind rugby league. We don't have a very large rusted-on supporter base (witness how crowd numbers have dived over 15 years) and so we need to give the fans something to believe in if the club and the game in general don't want to slide into long term irrelevance. Bringing in a player like Beams helps that.

More to the point, what made our talented Victorian players stay here during the glory years? Winning. Club culture. Beams made us more competitive, helped build a culture and he is a natural leader. He is what we needed to help us retain more players, which is a massive thing after we just lost five talented players.

To even get to the grand final we need competitiveness and a good culture first. You can't put the cart before the horse. Why do you think the Swans have been so popular in a rugby league state even though they didn't win a flag in their first 23 years?

Beams won't help us win a flag. A pick 5 might have... he'll be well past his peak before we hit finals.

You don't know any of this, it's all speculation.

 

[fairfooty]

Excellent discussion guys thank you. I'm off to do some work. Best for 2018. Cheers.

 

[Haso]

Excellent discussion guys thank you. I'm off to do some work. Best for 2018. Cheers.

Hey guys, looks like Mr Fancypants here has himself a job. Let's get him!

 

[cheekyLionsFan]

Hey guys, looks like Mr Fancypants here has himself a job. Let's get him!

 

[13Beast]

Given it's a weak draft and fairly even top 10-15 (outside of the first couple players - all of whom have question marks and could be a bit boom or bust), perhaps trading #1 for Adelaide's #10, #16, future 1st, future 2nd and CC may be an option.

Ballsy, I know, but Adelaide is in the premiership window, could then dangle something to Carlton for Gibbs with that #1 (or another top shelf A-grade player and go hard for that flag next year). Doubly, we can fill our gaps nicely with #10, #12, #16, #18, #20; think Worpel, Coffield, Constable, O'Brien, Clark etc etc. All will probably make solid contributors, and leave us with more picks to play with next year in the stronger draft. This year with that surplus of picks, could be ontraded for more firsts next year (if list spots are tight) or be nicely positioned to bundle up for some higher picks in this year's draft for say North's #4 or Freo's #5 (both in major rebuild mode via the draft).

This draft is open as ever, and in regards to our needs, I think we can plug holes on our list via this draft without necessarily needing to be in the top handful of picks. Secondly, Adelaide stinging from their premiership defeat, may very well be open to trading out just about all their picks this year and next to go for something rolled gold in #1, and then go hard at Gibbs or some other top shelf player before the trade period is out.