Politics China Trade War

[Ned_Flanders]

This is being touched on in various side threads, but its probably warranting its own discussion now

- 80% retaliatory tariff on barley exports due to accusations of dumping 18m ago
- export licence suspensions on four abattoirs on the basis on improper labelling/paperwork for beef exported to china
- australian iron ore exports to now be more rigorously reviewed during importation (slowing the process of getting aust ore to buyers)
- chinese power plants being told to prioritise chinese coal and russian coal before buying australian coal

I know ScoMo keeps saying we are not in a trade war, but reality is we are now. IMO looking like we are the proxy site for the economic punch on between the usa and china. how we come through this (because we have zero punches to throw back) will depend upon if this is just a warning shot by china (as they have done with Norway and Germany in the past), and if the USA intends on backing us with more than tweets

on the latter, not holding my breathe. The USA has picked up the barley sales into china that we lost when the tariff was implemented

 

[Gough]

Maybe the farmers and miners will finally ask themselves why they continue to support the Coalition so slavishly?

 

[Sainteric]

Maybe the farmers and miners will finally ask themselves why they continue to support the Coalition so slavishly?

They like to Farm and Mine, which may not be possible under ALP.

 

[Jello_B]

Scomo should have taken a different tact here. The intent was right but poorly executed. We should have a group assigned to this, for ensuring that we can find new markets to export into. Sure there are many industries that can and should now open up in Australia to better vertically expand on our natural resources + other industries, but this ain’t going to be enough.

 

[Fire]

I have no issue with Australia largely decoupling from China. Would be short/medium term pain, but they are not someone you want to be dependent on long term.

 

[Mateyman]

In terms of iron ore, to what extent are our mines Australian owned/to what extent do they support Australian jobs? I wouldn't imagine that there'd be loads of jobs as it seems more capital intensive but is that capital largely ours or not?

 

[Ok Boomer]

I have no issue with Australia largely decoupling from China. Would be short/medium term pain, but they are not someone you want to be dependent on long term.

I'd like to see some more assured progress towards export market diversification first.

 

[Sainteric]

In terms of iron ore, to what extent are our mines Australian owned/to what extent do they support Australian jobs? I wouldn't imagine that there'd be loads of jobs as it seems more capital intensive but is that capital largely ours or not?

25% of world production with Brazil 15 % is(Most of it) 30/40% of World Reserves are here, With BHP, Rio and Fortescue, Australian listed companies control a lot of it. The only supplier who might be able to supply China is Brazil but their whole supply chain is shut.

In other words China is joking

 

[Ned_Flanders]

25% of world production with Brazil (Most of it) 30/40% of World Reserves, With BHP, Rio and Fortescue, Australian listed companies control a lot of it. The only supplier who might be able to supply China is Brazil but their whole supply chain is shut.

In other words China is joking

You're assuming Chinese production is at precovid levels. It isn't. They are already trying to draw down stockpiles because of lack of demand.

Until the us and eu start spending money, or china unleash massive infrastructure programs (not happening at this point of time), demand for steel will be flat at best

 

[Mofra]

In terms of iron ore, to what extent are our mines Australian owned/to what extent do they support Australian jobs? I wouldn't imagine that there'd be loads of jobs as it seems more capital intensive but is that capital largely ours or not?

Mining in its entirety employs around 2% of the Australian workforce, although you'd expect there are flow-on effects from that employment given we have such a demand / services based economy.

 

[Mofra]

US may well have stiffed us given they signed barley export deals with China this week.
This provides a good idea as to why barley in particular was targetted by China:

Barley is not a random choice – here’s the real reason China is taking on Australia over dumping

China’s so-called anti-dumping action against Australia is really an action against Australia’s overuse of anti-dumping provisions. Barley producers are caught in the crossfire.

theconversation.com

FWIW dumping is a problem globally. Italian tomatoes a prime example (buy Australian!)

 

[Ants]

Interesting article Mofra.

What I find interesting is that the ALP backed the coalition here. At least initially, and have been silent (from what I've heard) as the criticism and China's actions ramp up. It makes me wonder what the two parties know that might be influencing the decision making on China. There could be a lot more going on behind the scenes than we're seeing on the surface, and maybe there were non-domestic/USA reasons for Morrison to lead the charge for the COVID investigation.

If that's not the case, then I really don't know why we've chosen to stick our neck out like this. China is a superpower, you tread extra carefully around them. And as much as we'd love to be decoupled from them, the simple reality is that they're the largest economy in the world, and in our neighbourhood. Reducing trade to China would mean a huge hit to economy.

 

[Leeda]

Maybe the farmers and miners will finally ask themselves why they continue to support the Coalition so slavishly?

not helpful dude.... causes friction between the nations.. wracking my brain for a more worthy situation.. not slavish at all.. just trying
to help the farmers when they find it so hard to get anywhere by themselves..

 

[Ned_Flanders]

Interesting article Mofra.

What I find interesting is that the ALP backed the coalition here. At least initially, and have been silent (from what I've heard) as the criticism and China's actions ramp up. It makes me wonder what the two parties know that might be influencing the decision making on China. There could be a lot more going on behind the scenes than we're seeing on the surface, and maybe there were non-domestic/USA reasons for Morrison to lead the charge for the COVID investigation.

If that's not the case, then I really don't know why we've chosen to stick our neck out like this. China is a superpower, you tread extra carefully around them. And as much as we'd love to be decoupled from them, the simple reality is that they're the largest economy in the world, and in our neighbourhood. Reducing trade to China would mean a huge hit to economy.

the ALP cannot afford to be seen as "anti-australia", Dutton and Littleproud are both already pushing the line that ALP people are betraying australia on this

 

[Rob R]

the ALP cannot afford to be seen as "anti-australia", Dutton and Fitzgibbon are both already pushing the line that ALP people are betraying australia on this

Hasnt Fitzgibbon been the biggest of the ALP quislings in recent days?

On SM-G570F using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Ned_Flanders]

Hasnt Fitzgibbon been the biggest of the ALP quislings in recent days?

On SM-G570F using BigFooty.com mobile app

typo - cut n paste during a phone call and forgot to change the name

 

[Ned_Flanders]

Other than Australia and Brazil the rest of the world produces what fall off those trains moving to a port in Nth WA. China is number 3 and brazil is producing didley squat atm. China is talking through its arse, but it seems to work for many heh?

what part of they dont need as much as normal AND they still have high inventories dont you get?

long term, yes you have a point. manufacturing is down 40% right now

do you think you use the same amount of steel when making 60% of the shit you normally do?

 

[Herne Hill Hammer]

**** China, every other country (apart from North Korea I guess) need to shun them. In all likelihood that would cost me my job but I'd love to see it happen to pull them into line.

 

[Number37]

Scomo should have taken a different tact here. The intent was right but poorly executed. We should have a group assigned to this, for ensuring that we can find new markets to export into. Sure there are many industries that can and should now open up in Australia to better vertically expand on our natural resources + other industries, but this ain’t going to be enough.

We should have one of these?

About us

The Australian Trade and Investment Commission – Austrade – is Australia’s leading trade and investment agency.


We are experts in connecting Australian businesses to the world and the world to Australian businesses.


We have a proud history of helping Australian businesses pursue their global ambitions and have the power to open doors, unlock opportunities and help Australian businesses go further, faster.


We help attract game-changing investment to Australia, to support new industries, enhance existing ones and bolster our world-class research and development – strengthening global supply chains, creating local jobs and boosting the economy.


With over 80 offices around the world, our experts in Australia and abroad collaborate to provide the best ‘in-country’ advice.


Our diverse team, consisting of country experts, industry specialists, and trade and investment analysts, provides clients with actionable macro and micro insights.


From trade and investment processes to protocols and regulation - we help Australian businesses, big or small, navigate complex overseas markets and make it easier for them to go global.


At the same time, our advice, contacts and support at every step, reduce the commercial risk of exporting to overseas markets.


And, our work continues. At a time of increasing global uncertainty, we are transforming our services, to help ensure Australia’s growth and a global future for all.

 

[Number37]

fu** China, every other country (apart from North Korea I guess) need to shun them. In all likelihood that would cost me my job but I'd love to see it happen to pull them into line.

If it was Labor putting your job at risk you would be one of the loudest ones bleating like a stuck pig.

 

[Herne Hill Hammer]

If it was Labor putting your job at risk you would be one of the loudest ones bleating like a stuck pig.

How'd you come up with that? I don't care who does it, it needs to be done and since it's the LNP in power then it's going to be them. What a stupid comment.

 

[Number37]

How'd you come up with that? I don't care who does it, it needs to be done and since it's the LNP in power then it's going to be them. What a stupid comment.

Of course, the good ole "what it does matter who's in power, it needs to be done"..,until Labor does something that 'needs to be done' (Carbon Tax, NBN, NDIS etc etc etc etc).

 

[Frank Bunn]

fu** China, every other country (apart from North Korea I guess) need to shun them. In all likelihood that would cost me my job but I'd love to see it happen to pull them into line.

Was saying to my kids I won't be buying anything made in China if I can help it. It will be tricky because we have grown to be dependent on them. But the Chinese economy depends on exports. China’s export activities are significant for its economy, accounting for almost one-fifth of its GDP.

Australia boycotting Chinese goods would be symbolic only. We need to work with USA. The US is China’s number one export destination, accounting for 20% of China’s exports, followed by Hong Kong (12%), Japan (6%), South Korea (4.5%) and Vietnam (3.4%).

 

[Seeds]

This is being touched on in various side threads, but its probably warranting its own discussion now

- 80% retaliatory tariff on barley exports due to accusations of dumping 18m ago
- export licence suspensions on four abattoirs on the basis on improper labelling/paperwork for beef exported to china
- australian iron ore exports to now be more rigorously reviewed during importation (slowing the process of getting aust ore to buyers)
- chinese power plants being told to prioritise chinese coal and russian coal before buying australian coal

I know ScoMo keeps saying we are not in a trade war, but reality is we are now. IMO looking like we are the proxy site for the economic punch on between the usa and china. how we come through this (because we have zero punches to throw back) will depend upon if this is just a warning shot by china (as they have done with Norway and Germany in the past), and if the USA intends on backing us with more than tweets

on the latter, not holding my breathe. The USA has picked up the barley sales into china that we lost when the tariff was implemented

Its not just a trade war. That part actually isnt really important. This is an ideology war.

 

[Seeds]

Other than Australia and Brazil the rest of the world produces what fall off those trains moving to a port in Nth WA. China is number 3 and brazil is producing didley squat atm. China is talking through its arse, but it seems to work for many heh?

Bolsonaro is ramping up the anti china talk far more than morrison too.