Analysis Collingwood Almanac 2015

[Schraderbrau]

selection

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My preferred best 22:
B: Brayden Maynard Nathan Brown Marley Williams
HB: Tom Langdon Jonathon Marsh Brendon Goddard
CEN: Steele Sidebottom Scott Pendlebury Travis Varcoe
HF: Levi Greenwood Travis Cloke Jack Crisp
F: Lindsay Thomas Tom Hawkins Jamie Elliott
FOLL: Brodie Grundy Patrick Dangerfield Dane Swan
BENCH: Jarrod Witts Alex Fasolo Jordan De Goey Matthew Scharenberg

Season over when Marsh pulls his hamstring and Brown does a knee in round one. I guess you will be relying on some Carlton style creativity to keep us under the cap as well.

 

[loki04]

He would feel right at home at Collingwood as a contributor to our yearly quota of serious leg injuries. We are not the sort of club that should intentionally risk taking on spoiled goods.

A young player of his ilk is worth the risk.

 

[RGpies]

Aaron young the most recent player linked to the pies knightmare. I believe you mentioned him earlier in the season as a gettable player. Where would you see him on our list?

 

[Likitysplit]

I'd also appreciate a short assessment on Young Knightmare, I find It curious that you traded for him In that draft board game & that Collingwood are being linked with him currently. I know absolutely nothing about the kid!

 

[Knightmare]

Season over when Marsh pulls his hamstring and Brown does a knee in round one. I guess you will be relying on some Carlton style creativity to keep us under the cap as well.

The advantages of not having a salary cap.

If Brown or Marsh get hurt Darcy Moore can always come into the seniors and play down back. I'll likely also late/rookie draft find a further one or two key defenders as coverage as I've quickly created a win-now situation.

Aaron young the most recent player linked to the pies knightmare. I believe you mentioned him earlier in the season as a gettable player. Where would you see him on our list?

Aaron Young is interesting and if it's in a trade for Kennedy if we're not happy with the picks we may be able to receive then I'm not opposed to receiving Young who is of comparable ability.

Young is a tallish, but lightly built onballer. Very good contested ball winner and clearance winner, moves pretty well, skills pretty good. He has been mostly used at half forward at AFL level which he can do but he plays his best football through the midfield.

In terms of list position on our list Young would probably fit into the mid 20s. So he isn't someone I'd specifically make a point of targeting.

I'd also appreciate a short assessment on Young Knightmare, I find It curious that you traded for him In that draft board game & that Collingwood are being linked with him currently. I know absolutely nothing about the kid!

I was hoping for a question along these lines regarding Young as he is thought to be someone Port Adelaide are willing to move. The appeal in the trade game for me was purely from a pick upgrade perspective with Young someone I look at on talent as being in the same conversation with Kennedy.

Young for Port Adelaide has been used here and there. Some full games. Many games as sub. Some games in the reserves.

Not overly consistent with his output. At AFL level for my liking too much has been used on a forward flank when he could be better utilised through the midfield. Tallish (188cm), light framed but is probably best for winning the contested ball and winning clearances through the midfield. Movement and skills pretty good. Moderate level accumulator and doesn't find a whole lot of outside ball with a fairly high contested to uncontested possession rate.

 

[Schraderbrau]

If we are only going to get a crap pick for Freeman, say something over pick 30. Why wouldn't we force him into the PSD to increase our chances of landing Aish with pick 7. Then, assuming GC and Brisbane can't draft him and assuming St Kilda commit to drafting Freeman, we effectively have pick 4 and significantly increase our chance of getting him.

 

[mike123]

If we are only going to get a crap pick for Freeman, say something over pick 30. Why wouldn't we force him into the PSD to increase our chances of landing Aish with pick 7. Then, assuming GC and Brisbane can't draft him and assuming St Kilda commit to drafting Freeman, we effectively have pick 4 and significantly increase our chance of getting him.

We'll get a pick under 30, don't worry about that.

 

[Knightmare]

If we are only going to get a crap pick for Freeman, say something over pick 30. Why wouldn't we force him into the PSD to increase our chances of landing Aish with pick 7. Then, assuming GC and Brisbane can't draft him and assuming St Kilda commit to drafting Freeman, we effectively have pick 4 and significantly increase our chance of getting him.

With the preseason draft clubs tend to respect the wishes of players, going by the thinking that if they want to get to a particular club and not our club, then we won't take them.

So I'm not seeing the big drama if Aish walks into the preseason draft. We should be able to get him and it's Brisbane's fault for not working with Collingwood to generate a deal.

As for Freeman. You have to take what you can get for him. I wouldn't push him into the preseason draft. That's just throwing away something for nothing when is of no benefit to anyone, and does not help our reputation as a potential destination club for players looking potentially to come in, in future seasons. Additionally on Freeman I see no reason why he won't get us at least a pick in the 20s. It's a shallow and weak draft so I'd tell St Kilda to keep trying if they're going to insult us with offers of a pick in the 30s. St Kilda I imagine will be motivated enough and reasonable enough to do better than that.

 

[Saintly Viewed]

With the preseason draft clubs tend to respect the wishes of players, going by the thinking that if they want to get to a particular club and not our club, then we won't take them.

So I'm not seeing the big drama if Aish walks into the preseason draft. We should be able to get him and it's Brisbane's fault for not working with Collingwood to generate a deal.

As for Freeman. You have to take what you can get for him. I wouldn't push him into the preseason draft. That's just throwing away something for nothing when is of no benefit to anyone, and does not help our reputation as a potential destination club for players looking potentially to come in, in future seasons. Additionally on Freeman I see no reason why he won't get us at least a pick in the 20s. It's a shallow and weak draft so I'd tell St Kilda to keep trying if they're going to insult us with offers of a pick in the 30s. St Kilda I imagine will be motivated enough and reasonable enough to do better than that.

Yes the PSD tends to allow players to go to their destination of choice.
Im still surprised clubs haven't realised its better to get along, swings and roundabouts.
A bit daft to be obstinate as it can come back to bite you another time.

 

[Gone Critical]

I'd back De Goey to be our top finisher post-Pendlebury and be that player on our list with the greatest possible chance at winning a Brownlow at some point.

Brownlow votes are very heavily slanted towards inside mids and more specifically pure contested ball winners as De Goey is. So of the next generation he would be my bet even over Treloar.

Moore regardless of his fathers accomplishments I don't see as being Brownlow relevant. Based on position. Roles he may play. He could even rotate into the midfield in a Roughead like role and still wouldn't score enough votes.

It's really a best midfielder award and it long has been with midfielders and onballers more specifically what umpires are in the most part watching as the players around the ball the most, and those players they are adjudicating in more plays than anyone else.

The argument that the umpires slant heavily towards midfielders is untrue in my belief. Untrue in the sense that the Brownlow is a midfielders award anymore so than the AFLCA MVP is or the various media awards. Think the Brownlow and AFLCA are a really good comparison. One is awarded by umpires, who have traditionally been tagged as not perhaps having the time and expertise to really judge the nuances correctly so just vote for those under their eyes. The other by the coaches, who are seen to understand players worth better than anyone, know the different roles they play and are the best judges. The 321 voting is often seen as flawed whereas the coaches 54321 x2 independent assessments looks fairer on paper.

Yet year after year, and more so in the last 5+ seasons where the dominance of the midfield role continues to grow in our game, the correlation between who votes well in either award is very close. Bottom line is midfielders also dominate the coaches award and there is almost always a very close correlation in the top 10 within awards. In 2015 9 of the top 10 were midfielders with Goldstein being the only non mid in both top 10s. What's more 8 of the top10 were the same with only Pendlbery and Gaff (coaches) and Martin and Ward (Brownlow) differing. I have in the past looked at other years and the same close correlation is seen. Same for the media awards.

There are plenty of reasons as our game has become more mid dominated that the stronghold mids always have had on individual awards has grown. However despite how itisoften characterised the Brownlow is no more susceptible to bias towards mids than other full competition awards are. The ones that differ a little are B&Fs and the AFLPA award. The AFLPA is the most subjective award with the least analysis attached to it and in my mind always has an * attached. Despite the fact that it has some cache to say who is better placed than the players to judge the best truth is they, under the AFLPA system judge on a poor framework if you want an objective analysed assessment.

B&Fs are different again but also subject to unusual results and internal biases within a match committee so may award on unusual criteria. On occasions. 2 of the last 3 Hawks B&F would support that

 

[Knightmare]

The argument that the umpires slant heavily towards midfielders is untrue in my belief. Untrue in the sense that the Brownlow is a midfielders award anymore so than the AFLCA MVP is or the various media awards. Think the Brownlow and AFLCA are a really good comparison. One is awarded by umpires, who have traditionally been tagged as not perhaps having the time and expertise to really judge the nuances correctly so just vote for those under their eyes. The other by the coaches, who are seen to understand players worth better than anyone, know the different roles they play and are the best judges. The 321 voting is often seen as flawed whereas the coaches 54321 x2 independent assessments looks fairer on paper.

Yet year after year, and more so in the last 5+ seasons where the dominance of the midfield role continues to grow in our game, the correlation between who votes well in either award is very close. Bottom line is midfielders also dominate the coaches award and there is almost always a very close correlation in the top 10 within awards. In 2015 9 of the top 10 were midfielders with Goldstein being the only non mid in both top 10s. What's more 8 of the top10 were the same with only Pendlbery and Gaff (coaches) and Martin and Ward (Brownlow) differing. I have in the past looked at other years and the same close correlation is seen. Same for the media awards.

There are plenty of reasons as our game has become more mid dominated that the stronghold mids always have had on individual awards has grown. However despite how itisoften characterised the Brownlow is no more susceptible to bias towards mids than other full competition awards are. The ones that differ a little are B&Fs and the AFLPA award. The AFLPA is the most subjective award with the least analysis attached to it and in my mind always has an * attached. Despite the fact that it has some cache to say who is better placed than the players to judge the best truth is they, under the AFLPA system judge on a poor framework if you want an objective analysed assessment.

B&Fs are different again but also subject to unusual results and internal biases within a match committee so may award on unusual criteria. On occasions. 2 of the last 3 Hawks B&F would support that

As a team sport I'm not interested in any individual awards and would not be aware one year from the next who wins what.

In saying that what you mentioned above perfectly illustrates my point about the Brownlow. Andrew Gaff is that perfect example not finishing inside the top 10 in the Brownlow but finishing top 10 in the coaches association award. He'll never win the brownlow or be brownlow relevant because he does not win his own ball and is not a factor around stoppages.

Those that are factors at stoppages such as Matt Priddis are exactly what the umpires will value. You only have to look at the guys who win the award. Fyfe (winning the award despite missing so many games), Priddis last year who was certainly not the best in the game, Jobe Watson in 2012 who similarly was not the best player that year. It's an award that leans heavily towards those midfielders who are stoppage specialists. And if anyone here does bet on the brownlow (which I do not recommend), then I strongly advise all to be highly aware of this. Fyfe, Dangerfield, Priddis, Gray, Cunnington, Cripps, Kennedy, Wines. Those guys are all going to be among the contenders over the coming years.

 

[Collingwood pro]

Thoughts about Daniel Rioli?

 

[Knightmare]

Thoughts about Daniel Rioli?

Quick, has some tricks. Production probably not as high as I'd ideally like in a poor TAC Cup competition.

Late/rookie draft would be an appropriate choice as a small forward.

I just rate a few other sub 180cm small forwards more highly.

Specifically Davin Ferreira and Hisham Kerbatieh who have been relatively stronger performers by position.

Rioli in my extended power rankings would fit early 50s for some perspective on where he would fit on my draft board relative to the other talents available.

 

[kaistar]

Knight reckon we should try get one of Luke Hannon or Andreas Roth as overages? Rate both really highly.

 

[Saintly Viewed]

Quick, has some tricks. Production probably not as high as I'd ideally like in a poor TAC Cup competition.

Late/rookie draft would be an appropriate choice as a small forward.

I just rate a few other sub 180cm small forwards more highly.

Specifically Davin Ferreira and Hisham Kerbatieh who have been relatively stronger performers by position.

Rioli in my extended power rankings would fit early 50s for some perspective on where he would fit on my draft board relative to the other talents available.

Thank you KM,
I was in two minds about Rioli from what ive heard. I think i was getting taken in by his surname so to speak. I rest easier now, knowing hes more of a late pick etc.

 

[Knightmare]

Knight reckon we should try get one of Luke Hannon or Andreas Roth as overages? Rate both really highly.

Sorry to disappoint you but neither are in the mix to get selected with neither invited to the state or national combines this year.

Does Roth even still play competitive football?

In terms of overagers. There are a lot of really exceptional ones this year who are worth a shot. Hibberd, Himmelberg, Capiron, Coughlan, Phillips, Answerth. Those are the names you should be watching for as value overagers.

Thank you KM,
I was in two minds about Rioli from what ive heard. I think i was getting taken in by his surname so to speak. I rest easier now, knowing hes more of a late pick etc.

With Rioli given the draft is only 20-30 deep a club may go early and pick Rioli in the late 20s or 30s and that would not be considered unreasonable.

I'm just not that excited relatively speaking and see him as more a speculative type who a club may earlier get sucked into based on his athletic testing.

As a small forward the lesser hyped and spoken about (due to not sharing the surname Rioli) on form Ferreira I feel is the better bet if we are to go the small forward route late/rookie draft.

 

[kaistar]

I know both Hannon boys well. Josh is an up and coming 17 year old who I think will get drafted next year. Do you reckon he will? Do you reckon Luke is any good and could get a shot? I reckon that Luke Andreas and benny cavara were all very unlucky in their draft year.

 

[Knightmare]

I know both Hannon boys well. Josh is an up and coming 17 year old who I think will get drafted next year. Do you reckon he will? Do you reckon Luke is any good and could get a shot? I reckon that Luke Andreas and benny cavara were all very unlucky in their draft year.

Luke doesn't look like a realistic chance at this stage, but who knows who will improve and how much in the future.

Josh is playing TAC Cup for Eastern. He isn't a standout now but someone you'd need to re-assess on next season.

Ben Cavarra has been handy for several years now and is already a good state leaguer but probably lacks that point of difference that sets him apart from other talents as a small to force his way onto an AFL list.

 

[mike123]

Quick, has some tricks. Production probably not as high as I'd ideally like in a poor TAC Cup competition.

Late/rookie draft would be an appropriate choice as a small forward.

I just rate a few other sub 180cm small forwards more highly.

Specifically Davin Ferreira and Hisham Kerbatieh who have been relatively stronger performers by position.

Rioli in my extended power rankings would fit early 50s for some perspective on where he would fit on my draft board relative to the other talents available.

Where do you think Davin Ferreira's and Hisham Kerbatiehdraft's ranges are?

 

[Knightmare]

Where do you think Davin Ferreira's and Hisham Kerbatiehdraft's ranges are?

Kerbatieh could go in the 30s or 40s to guess or he may slide into the rookie draft.

Ferreira probably more late/rookie.

I like Ferreira most though of the three we're talking about. Has missed with injury during the u18 champs but has played well in SA at reserves level and also done well enough at league level. So his performance relatively and having performed v better competition suggests he is of those sub 180cm forwards the better of the three for me at least. 14 goals from 4 games at reserves level is excellent and 4 from 3 league games is also for a 17 year old very good.

 

[Gone Critical]

As a team sport I'm not interested in any individual awards and would not be aware one year from the next who wins what.

In saying that what you mentioned above perfectly illustrates my point about the Brownlow. Andrew Gaff is that perfect example not finishing inside the top 10 in the Brownlow but finishing top 10 in the coaches association award. He'll never win the brownlow or be brownlow relevant because he does not win his own ball and is not a factor around stoppages.

Those that are factors at stoppages such as Matt Priddis are exactly what the umpires will value. You only have to look at the guys who win the award. Fyfe (winning the award despite missing so many games), Priddis last year who was certainly not the best in the game, Jobe Watson in 2012 who similarly was not the best player that year. It's an award that leans heavily towards those midfielders who are stoppage specialists. And if anyone here does bet on the brownlow (which I do not recommend), then I strongly advise all to be highly aware of this. Fyfe, Dangerfield, Priddis, Gray, Cunnington, Cripps, Kennedy, Wines. Those guys are all going to be among the contenders over the coming years.

Can't agree with your example here re Gaff. You are over analysing this which many do. Gaff was 1 vote off being in the Brownlow top 10. He is Brownlow relevant and finished very high up in the award. Your hypothesis is interesting but I doubt it's true. However using one or two random examples that may support your argument isn't enough to prove it. Clearly in this case your example is flawed given Gaff also finished very high in the Brownlow and AFLCA.

 

[PieMan!]

Knightmare Hey mate seeing it will look like we could end up a few picks around the early 20s who do you think we should target ? Cheers Buddy

 

[Knightmare]

Knightmare Hey mate seeing it will look like we could end up a few picks around the early 20s who do you think we should target ? Cheers Buddy

Those picks may go very quickly if we make plays for the likes of Aish firstly. Then Aaron Young and perhaps someone else.

But if we have a couple of picks in the 20s. Clayton Oliver would be the ultimate value selection if there as a midfielder. Ryan Clarke as a ball winning, running midfielder would represent great value in the 20s. Kieran Collins as a strong bodied key defender who can win his 1v1s and also take intercept marks would be a worthwhile selection if there. Luke Partington as a highly productive midfielder would represent strong value. As would Wayne Milera if he makes it into the 20s as a damaging forward/mid. Mitchell Hibberd as more an outside mid/back. They'd be the names on my extended shortlist in the 20s as guys I can see representing strong value.

 

[TheGreatGrundy]

Regarding our older players I'm with you on the now older players and with all of Toovey, Goldsack and on a stronger level again with Macaffer I have conceded already that they will be passed by if they have not been already.

Macaffer I just don't anywhere see a role for. As taggers/run with players Greenwood and Crisp do that already. Up forward he doesn't provide the scoreboard impact he needs to, to be relevant and down back on talent he is too far behind other options.

Toovey and Goldsack both still are clear AFL standard players but with the development of: Williams, Langdon, Scharenberg, Maynard and then Marsh who may be used as either a medium defender or key defender. I'd want all five of them playing every week in the seniors. And with those five, there no longer is room for Toovey or Goldsack as regulars in the seniors if that group can remain healthy.

It's a great situation to be in, and we can only hope it has that 2010 type of feel where the young guys all collectively take that next step and accelerate past those veteran talents. Because the talent and performance for all of Williams, Langdon, Scharenberg, Maynard and Marsh is certainly there.

Ramsey added to that list (if he overcomes whatever he is overcoming)? He was good. Surely defender no.6 in your defensive set up? I assume Brown as one big defender. Frost or Reid as the other?

 

[Knightmare]

Ramsey added to that list (if he overcomes whatever he is overcoming)? He was good. Surely defender no.6 in your defensive set up? I assume Brown as one big defender. Frost or Reid as the other?

Ramsay is rated internally and will surely gain more opportunities next year. Just on talent I find he is much more limited and probably not someone I'd want to play when I have that group to select from. But that's just my personal preference. Though he did well this year to prove he can at least play at the level, so who knows what he can do with further hard work.

Ramsay if I'm picking a back 6, I wouldn't have room to fit him inside my best 10.

I'd very comfortably go with (as my starting 6):
B: Williams Brown Maynard
HB: Scharenberg Marsh Langdon

Marsh many will question as a key defender with people wondering whether he can be a key defender. Personally I think he'd really at CHB create a really nice balance to the back half and provide some otherwise missing run while also having enough strength to go with the key forwards. And Scharenberg also while many who haven't seen him as a junior is another who can play taller and play on key forwards as Marsh can. So I'd back that back six in.
With Toovey, Goldsack, Frost, Oxley those next in line ahead of Ramsay at this point. And Reid to be played forward, though another who could play back if Moore explodes next year.

Ramsay I have in the Toovey/Goldsack category where while smaller. He is similarly a role player. I'd say the same of Sinclair. Fine as a component to a back half. But the impact and completeness of game makes them second tier type options.

In any case. The names we're talking about just illustrates how incredibly deep we go down back if nothing else with cases for any of these guys possible with all of them possessing AFL relevant games.