List Mgmt. COLLINGWOOD Trade and F/A Discussion 2023

[Scodog10]

There’s some recency bias with Billings because prior to the last two years he was a classy HF/ mid and absolutely an upgrade on 2023 Lipinski or Ginnivan.

A $500k x 2 contract isn’t prohibitive, but if it was he’s a non FA so you can smooth it out by re-negotiating the deal and at this stage I think he’d take another year at a new club over petering out at St Kilda. The real query is that he doesn’t seem a McRae type of player because we prefer guys with high workrate or pace and preferably both. He’d need to bring a whole new attitude across with him to fit in, IMO…

 

[sideswipe]

It's looking pretty obvious that the AFL forgot to adjust their compensation bands for expected cap inflation. Good year to be losing a free agent.

They never do - as they compare the new deal against actual contracts for this year. They obviously can’t do it based on actuals for next year because they aren’t all done/available yet.

Although nothing stopping them applying an index increase the board to all of this year’s contract.

North get the double whammy of low finish plus cba boost.


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[upnsmoke]

Very strong pound for pound.

Garry Ablett Snr would kick 100 goals today easily just like he did in his era because he was the perfect combination of speed, strength and athleticism.... the guy was a bull and had amazing hands.

I swear all their fans are numbskulls.

They most likely feel the same with Pies fans and any non Docker fans... it's a common thought amongst each fan base after all

 

[upnsmoke]

I am old enough to have watched them. I agree those were two of the best I’ve ever seen play too but it’s a fact that key forwards are not that height any more.

Huh?

The dominant goal kicker forward era ended because of teams simply swarming the forward 50 and eliminating space in front.... it made the game more reliant on snap goals or from crumbers inside the 40m zone and big marking forwards kicking long 50m goals....

But recent developments on strategy and teams that allows teams to rebound quickly and get inside their forward 50 fast with a one on one and plenty of space have opened up the opportunities for deep forwards kicking bags of goals... Curnow alone showed it worked against Pies... when Blues did their best to belt the ball over Pies defense and get inside their 50 off rebounds....

Basically now there are plenty of opportunities for elite players to kick bags again...


Mind you, Ablett, Lockett, Dunstal were all absolute elite goal kickers so even in a swarmed forward 50 they would kick 2 to 3 goals easily in the modern era.... but if you focus on getting them one on one's or open spaces they would average 4 to 5 goals easily.

 

[VinnieB]

Why would he take guaranteed 1mill for 2 and play the third for free? I’d you had a contract for 2 years at work for 500k, and your employer said “hey, can we pay you the same 1mill, but over 3 years instead of 2” would you?

This gets said so often and I never understand how people think players will work for free.

Yes, you’re right. It usually includes an extra year at far less money. So in this example, it may be $1.2m over 3 yrs.

 

[Timmy from Thomastown]

There’s some recency bias with Billings because prior to the last two years he was a classy HF/ mid and absolutely an upgrade on 2023 Lipinski or Ginnivan.

A $500k x 2 contract isn’t prohibitive, but if it was he’s a non FA so you can smooth it out by re-negotiating the deal and at this stage I think he’d take another year at a new club over petering out at St Kilda. The real query is that he doesn’t seem a McRae type of player because we prefer guys with high workrate or pace and preferably both. He’d need to bring a whole new attitude across with him to fit in, IMO…

Being a possible marginal upgrade on lipinski or Ginnivan isn’t a strong enough argument, even if true….especially if you are basing that on form from 3 or more years ago.

 

[doppleganger]

There’s some recency bias with Billings because prior to the last two years he was a classy HF/ mid and absolutely an upgrade on 2023 Lipinski or Ginnivan.

Billings output and drop away is comparable to Grundy (but obviously never reached the heights Reg did)

2017-2019 was Billings top seasons, he fell away in 2020-21 and has barely fired a shot in 2022-23.

Id happily take Lip and Ginni 2022 seasons over any that Billings has produced since 2019.

A $500k x 2 contract isn’t prohibitive, but if it was he’s a non FA so you can smooth it out by re-negotiating the deal and at this stage I think he’d take another year at a new club over petering out at St Kilda. The real query is that he doesn’t seem a McRae type of player because we prefer guys with high workrate or pace and preferably both. He’d need to bring a whole new attitude across with him to fit in, IMO…

Yeah, if he can recapture 2017-19 form he would be a handy addition....but unlike our targetted recruiting from last year, I dont really see what need he fills?

And does he have a link with any of our coaches?? That is what got Oleg in the door.

Much rather see us give more time to Reef, Macrae and Ginni

 

[Dead Eye Didak]

They never do - as they compare the new deal against actual contracts for this year. They obviously can’t do it based on actuals for next year because they aren’t all done/available yet.

Although nothing stopping them applying an index increase the board to all of this year’s contract.

North get the double whammy of low finish plus cba boost.


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Amazing all the time, hard work and money other clubs, like ourselves, put into their list strategy, trading and drafting, training methods, staff and coach acquisitions, facilities for high performance in order to be successful and make finals to eventually win a premiership, yet other clubs get handed to them on a silver platter, potential success and eventually a premiership.
I don't understand how this competition rewards mismanagement and poor performance.

 

[Apex36]

Garry Ablett Snr would kick 100 goals today easily just like he did in his era because he was the perfect combination of speed, strength and athleticism.... the guy was a bull and had amazing hands.

No he wouldn’t. It’s a very different game today than it was back in the 80’s/90’s. Ablett often had an entire forward 50 to work with and only one opponent. In a game with congested forward lines and defenders peeling off their men to intercept, 100 goals just isn’t realistic anymore. It’s fanciful at best to believe that any former player would reach the heights they did in the modern game, even Ablett.

Curnow is an athletic freak, and yeah he can kick a bag every now and then, but it’s generally against weak forward lines, or with umpire assistance. The game still isn’t as open as it used to be, despite the trend of fast rebounds creating an open 50 over the past couple of years.

 

[gouki88]

No he wouldn’t. It’s a very different game today than it was back in the 80’s/90’s. Ablett often had an entire forward 50 to work with and only one opponent. In a game with congested forward lines and defenders peeling off their men to intercept, 100 goals just isn’t realistic anymore. It’s fanciful at best to believe that any former player would reach the heights they did in the modern game, even Ablett.

Curnow is an athletic freak, and yeah he can kick a bag every now and then, but it’s generally against weak forward lines, or with umpire assistance. The game still isn’t as open as it used to be, despite the trend of fast rebounds creating an open 50 over the past couple of years.

He would also probably have been pushed to play midfield given his height and athleticism.

 

[Venkman]

Bit of a tease to hear that Harley Reid would like to play for Collingwood “because of the atmosphere and the fans they bring.”

Feels like how it should be. I never got the allure of Geelong.. I mean I do, it's the surf/ country lifestyle that a lot of country kids relate to, but really, wouldn't you want the biggest club playing in the biggest stadium with the biggest crowds...

 

[sideswipe]

Amazing all the time, hard work and money other clubs, like ourselves, put into their list strategy, trading and drafting, training methods, staff and coach acquisitions, facilities for high performance in order to be successful and make finals to eventually win a premiership, yet other clubs get handed to them on a silver platter, potential success and eventually a premiership.
I don't understand how this competition rewards mismanagement and poor performance.

It’s not such a bad thing. Reckon you would rather over-compensate clubs for departing FAs than under. I’d say McKay’s compo very much an outlier.

AFL needs equalisation methods - otherwise we run the risk of bottom-dwellers never getting up. That is not good for the game.

If it wasn’t for us getting a priority pick in 2005 we don’t get Pendles. That was a pretty decent reward for a team that was in the grand final two seasons before. Were you complaining then?


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[Apex36]

It’s not such a bad thing. Reckon you would rather over-compensate clubs for departing FAs than under. I’d say McKay’s compo very much an outlier.

AFL needs equalisation methods - otherwise we run the risk of bottom-dwellers never getting up. That is not good for the game.

If it wasn’t for us getting a priority pick in 2005 we don’t get Pendles. That was a pretty decent reward for a team that was in the grand final two seasons before. Were you complaining then?


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Actually we wouldn’t have got Thomas.

 

[sideswipe]

Actually we wouldn’t have got Thomas.

How do you figure that?


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[Apex36]

How do you figure that?


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Our priority pick was pick 2. We took Thomas at 2 before Pendles because Hine believed Thomas would be gone by pick 5.

 

[sideswipe]

Our priority pick was pick 2. We took Thomas at 2 before Pendles because Hine believed Thomas would be gone by pick 5.

Not sure you can say with any certainty if we only had pick 2 we would have taken pendles and not Thomas. Either way the priority got us a flag. Without either of them we don’t win.

I see we will still be paying Grundy? Thoughts?


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[KinderSmock]

What Billings is on:

“He has two years to go on his contract on about $500,000 a year"
Apparantely Saints will only pay some of it if we give them a good pick, otherwise we pay the full contract for a late pick.

Living up to his name then.

 

[Bianconeri]

Howe

Varcoe as well iirc

 

[Pleasedontfail11]

Prefer we take the Billings cash and pay off Grundy/ Treloar ad make a big play for a FA or JUH next year.

 

[sideswipe]

Prefer we take the Billings cash and pay off Grundy/ Treloar ad make a big play for a FA or JUH next year.

We must be close to having Treloar paid off? 2 years to go on his contract and the Dogs reportedly allowed us to do some front loading?


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[sr36]

Prefer we take the Billings cash and pay off Grundy/ Treloar ad make a big play for a FA or JUH next year.

I doubt we'll spend Billings cash. Saints don't want him. If we're interested, they'll either pay some salary and gift him or keep his whole salary on the books. I doubt we're keen enough to dip into the cap.

 

[Scodog10]

Being a possible marginal upgrade on lipinski or Ginnivan isn’t a strong enough argument, even if true….especially if you are basing that on form from 3 or more years ago.

Marginal is your assessment not mine. Prior to 22-23 Billings was a poor man’s Didak and is more than a marginal upgrade on those two. It’s Collingwood that would be basing any recruiting decision on what they think they can get out of him. I’m only trying to interpret the interest. Personally I wouldn’t go there given the recruitment of Schultz and his contract.

 

[Scodog10]

We must be close to having Treloar paid off? 2 years to go on his contract and the Dogs reportedly allowed us to do some front loading?


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Salary cap also jumps by $2m in 2025 so even if it’s ongoing by then I don’t think it would be much of a factor.

 

[partypie]

My guess on Billings if we are keen is he has a ripper left foot and he’d nail that tricky pressure kick into the corridor to open up our style of play. But a lot of other factors to weigh up with him.

Biggest factor is that we need to start getting some games into these kids to see what they might be. Bringing in a 28 year old Billings means that one of them misses out and he's certainly not filling an area of need for us at the moment.

 

[Pie thon]

Prefer we take the Billings cash and pay off Grundy/ Treloar ad make a big play for a FA or JUH next year.

Im quite sure after the 'fire sale', we had over 1m a year free in 2021-2022. I'm sure that cleared owings to Beams and Treloar. And given Grundy could have been kept this year even with our recruits, accoring to GW. You would think 3 years of his wage was paid too. And if those players didn't take pay in advance, I'm sure some of the other 40 players on the list were happy to do so. We should start to have the equivalent of a grundy contract free by next year to play with, and with pendles and Sidebottoms being 1-3 years left, their wages too. But I think we will be targeting an elite mid before a forward.