List Mgmt. COLLINGWOOD Trade and F/A Discussion

[gouki88]

You want a piece of Buddy at 1.5 for 2 years, sucked in! Might as well flush $$$ down the toilet, diabolic fit for Collingwood. Anyway we don't have to worry about it because it's a stupid idea.

$1.5m for Buddy over 2 years is much better than $3m over 5 years for McStay.

If Buddy maintains a similar output to his previous two seasons he's a 40+ goal kicking forward, assuming he missed 1/3 of the season or thereabouts. McStay's highest goal tally in a season is 28. He has kicked 14 this season (7 less than Ollie Henry, for example).

 

[Quicky]

It could also lead to Mihocek or Kreuger playing VFL. Johnson having zero opportunity. Three years hence we have the young draftee, Cameron and Henry.

I agree it is a fine balancing act.

I think we need to use our draft picks and salary $$$ to target quality, and back in our system to develop the rest.

I'd be stoked if Krueger and Mihocek can partner up. But I don't think we can rely on it with Kruegers injury history. We need more quality at key forward imo. If we end up talking about who's playing VFL we've done well.

On the bolded, how would you approach that?

 

[Quicky]

This year I would recruit an inside mid through free agency, and draft a CHF.

In 2023 track (i) Kreuger and Dean filling KP deficiencies, and (ii) the development of younger boys earmarked to cover retirements - to determine our draft/FA targets next year.

Which inside mid would you target through free agency this year?

 

[cityslick1]

not free agency, but how about Will Phillips or JHF... for JDG, unless we are sure he has 5 years of 'clean' living and footy in front of him

 

[Mollythedolly]

Stats do lie because Grundy wasn't a top 4 ruckman last year and you're in a very small group (maybe 1) who think that.

Not a hill I'd choose to die on.

Watch the game and not the stat sheet.

I’d have thought Grundy was easily in the top 10 rucks (your initial claim). The stats are actually stronger evidence in support of that than anything offered thus far to demonstrate he wasn’t.

 

[Jim Levenstein]

not free agency, but how about Will Phillips or JHF... for JDG, unless we are sure he has 5 years of 'clean' in front of him

JHF in a good environment would be lighting up this year, his ceiling is massive. . I love JDG but I’m doing that trade in a heart beat.

 

[SquirrelGrrripp]

It could also lead to Mihocek or Kreuger playing VFL. Johnson having zero opportunity. Three years hence we have the young draftee, Cameron and Henry.

I agree it is a fine balancing act.

I think we need to use our draft picks and salary $$$ to target quality, and back in our system to develop the rest.

Buddy has hit more parked cars than our lot have kicked goals!

For what it’s worth, I whole heartedly agree with you…


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[Finnishpie]

It could also lead to Mihocek or Kreuger playing VFL. Johnson having zero opportunity. Three years hence we have the young draftee, Cameron and Henry.

I agree it is a fine balancing act.

I think we need to use our draft picks and salary $$$ to target quality, and back in our system to develop the rest.

Mihocek can always play back if we have too many KPPs.

I don't think we need Buddy unless we think we're a chance for a flag. But we do need a quality forward. I wouldn't be opposed to Weideman from Melbourne or McStay -- though neither at anything other than average $. We do need to keep investing in the draft as well.

 

[jmac70]

Mihocek can always play back if we have too many KPPs.

I don't think we need Buddy unless we think we're a chance for a flag. But we do need a quality forward. I wouldn't be opposed to Weideman from Melbourne or McStay -- though neither at anything other than average $. We do need to keep investing in the draft as well.

Next year we’ll have McStay, Cameron, Checkers, Cox, Begg, Dean, Grundy, Henry, Howe, Johnson, Krueger, Madgen, McMahon, Moore, Murphy, Ruscoe and Kelly. Players who can play a key position or ruck. I’m not sure we need many more than that.
I think a greater need is a big bodied mid or two.

 

[jmac70]

We are only 5th because there is some pretty damn average opposition running around this year. Our premiership window may be starting 2025.

I think we have a decent bunch of young players - that hopefully develop to the stage that they can be given a go in AFL, as our ageing superstars transition into retirement.

This year’s draft - hopefully bunch our third round picks and gain a low second round. Will Alwyn Davey Jnr go top 20? Essendon have pick 21. I think we already have enough speculative McMahon types - get two top 20 draft selections.

Similarly, we have a Kreuger, Dean and Carmichael. No need to recruit same and play one in the VFL. If there isnt quality, in an area of need, save our money for next year and get in their ear now.

Key forward and inside mids aside, we won’t really know our deficiencies until we see who amongst the kids develop or don’t. Which senior players fall off a cliff, or age gracefully.

2025!
It’s opening now.

 

[Mick F]

2025!
It’s opening now.

If we can finish top four, and we get the job done in the finals, we’ll take it.

Blokes like Elliott, DecGoey, Moore and Howe have a touch of show pony about them and could easily light up the big stage in September. McRae is working on all the boys contributing and having a go.

 

[jmac70]

If we can finish top four, and we get the job done in the finals, we’ll take it.

The opportunity is there. No excuse for us, we should finish 5th as a minimum.

 

[jmac70]

Yes we have what we have, but geez you’d like Roughead against Geelong and Kreuger versus Melbourne.

If we can get Moore, De Goey, Grundy and Adams back fit and firing we can go all the way.

 

[beerbandit]

This year I would recruit an inside mid through free agency, and draft a CHF.

In 2023 track (i) Kreuger and Dean filling KP deficiencies, and (ii) the development of younger boys earmarked to cover retirements - to determine our draft/FA targets next year.

The only problem I see unfortunately with Krueger is (and I’m not trying to jinx him) that young blokes and especially KPP who pop shoulders always seem to unfortunately pop shoulders. I hope he doesn’t turn into another Sean Rusling type who just can’t get a crack.

 

[Bianconeri]

We’re struck down with injuries every year not sure why people are worried about certain players not being able to get a game.

 

[frizzle]

Next year we’ll have McStay, Cameron, Checkers, Cox, Begg, Dean, Grundy, Henry, Howe, Johnson, Krueger, Madgen, McMahon, Moore, Murphy, Ruscoe and Kelly. Players who can play a key position or ruck. I’m not sure we need many more than that.
I think a greater need is a big bodied mid or two.

There is a lot of unproven or VFL class talls on that list. Henry is the only young tall I’m confident will make it. The others may not be on the list in 2 or 3 years. We do need another tough inside midfielder but a real quality forward would be nice at some stage too. A few other clubs have 2 of them up forward.
Cats have Hawkins & Cameron. Blues have Mackay & Curnow. Tigers have Lynch & Riewoldt. We don’t have any big forwards that are near their class. McStay isn’t the answer either.

 

[Scodog10]

Looking at Cameron's Ruck numbers - 577 Ruck contests, 230 hitouts with 63 to advantage. Overall % wise hes barely a top 20 ruckman and below average in every key ruck stat. His marking and goal numbers are top tier, more reason he should be our forward/pinch hitting ruckman.

I think if Grundy can lift his contested marking numbers around the ground (not just forward) he will basically become irreplaceable as a number #1 ruckman. He gives us our best opportunity at clearances, which can be game changing with the 6-6-6. Around stoppages he's damaging, his tackling numbers are massive and ball use as a ruckman is dependable

But I agree with you 100% the money doesn't fit, he should be on closer to the 800k mark as at maximum.

Hitout numbers don’t mean anything to me. A guy could have a 100 a match and 100% efficiency to advantage, but it’ll have zero impact on the contest if the guys at his feet are swamped because it’s so predictable (ludicrous example of course it’s just to highlight that like running bounces hitouts mean nothing)…

I’m a numbers guy as well analytics is also my background so for me this is a very good “teachable” moment. Grundy looks fantastic in those areas, but there are holes in the data. Firstly it’s overall hitout and hitout to advantage numbers it doesn’t take into consideration centre clearance v around the ground. Having watched Grundy for the past decade his ruckwork around the ground >>>> centre bounce and when it’s 8 v 8 at a stoppage a hitout to advantage is nowhere near as effective as a centre square hitout to advantage. Secondly Grundy’s hitzone is 30cm from his feet whereas a guy like Nic Nat or Gawn has a 2m hit zone and whilst they don’t put it there every time a hitout to advantage outside the contest >>>> the ruckman’s feet. Bringing it back to our ruckman Cameron is the better centre square ruckman and Grundy better around the ground and I’d give Cameron the edge in hit zones.

In order to really judge hitout numbers I’d say we also need clearance conversion rates (there’s no point getting a hitout or hitout to advantage if it ends in the hands of the opposition or another stoppage) and disposal efficiency (there’s also no point winning a stoppage if the clearance player is under pressure and turns it over). I’m not for one second saying that Cameron is on top in those categories (by eye I’d say it’s about 50/50 from lesser numbers) this is more to emphasise why I prefer my ruckman to be kicking goals or taking contested grabs because they’re immediately measurable with a definitive impact.

IMO, we got sucked in by Grundy’s numbers ultimately overpaying him and now they’ve dropped off we’ve got an above average (not elite) ruckman on ridiculous coin.

 

[Scodog10]

Next year we’ll have McStay, Cameron, Checkers, Cox, Begg, Dean, Grundy, Henry, Howe, Johnson, Krueger, Madgen, McMahon, Moore, Murphy, Ruscoe, Wilson, McInnes and Kelly. Players who can play a key position or ruck. I’m not sure we need many more than that.
I think a greater need is a big bodied mid or two.

EFA. I agree with frizzle that it’s really a lot of unproven talent and the bolded as KP is a stretch. I mean neither is going to Peter Wright or Mackay in the next few weeks. I’d then add that the guys in italics are OOC and whilst I think most will stay it’s more just highlighting that as it stands they aren’t in the conversation for next year (at least one of Madgen, Kelly and McMahon is gone, IMO).

That all said I think there’s a spine to work with there and looking at our stoppage woes if you could implant Oliver, Cripps or Wines into this current Collingwood team we would be legitimate premiership contenders. Without that brute inside mid I think we’re at a disadvantage against the very best. Sure we can beat them on our day, but everything will need to go right in September for that to happen with this current midfield mix.

I should add that 2021 JDG could be the difference I just think the best of JDG is done for 2022 with the disruptions of the past month.

 

[Unknown Identity]

Jacob Hopper

22

Jacob Hopper

Age

27

Ht

187cm

Wt

86kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

21.0

5star

K

9.9

4star

HB

11.1

5star

M

2.9

3star

T

4.5

5star

CL

4.3

5star

D

17.6

4star

K

8.8

4star

HB

8.9

4star

M

2.4

3star

T

4.6

5star

CL

4.0

5star

D

18.6

5star

K

8.4

4star

HB

10.2

5star

M

4.0

4star

T

3.8

5star

CL

3.4

5star

's name keeps popping up for a move to Victoria

Would much prefer him than McStay.

 

[Quicky]

Next year we’ll have McStay, Cameron, Checkers, Cox, Begg, Dean, Grundy, Henry, Howe, Johnson, Krueger, Madgen, McMahon, Moore, Murphy, Ruscoe and Kelly. Players who can play a key position or ruck. I’m not sure we need many more than that.
I think a greater need is a big bodied mid or two.

If we pick up McStay it takes care of key forward, even if there remains debate over whether he's the right fix. At least in the medium term.

I would also be looking at a high quality draft age key forward to develop while we're playing McStay/Mihocek/Krueger in that scenario.

I think there needs to be some turnover in that next group, also understanding we've lost Roughead and Keane. I don't really see the point in retaining Kelly, and Madgen can only be a break glass player on our list moving forward. I wouldn't be fussed if we moved on tbh.

I'd be looking at key defenders. Logue and/or Highmore this year or McKay as an RFA next year should be looked at imo.

 

[Scodog10]

Pretty fair call Sco. about influence for a ruckman.
I'd add clearance as a significant metric for a ruck as well and its the one area that Grundy's absence has exposed IMO. Its further emphasised as we are poor in the area anyway. Grundy is elite in this area, it represents perhaps a loss of 2 per match which is the equivalent of an average mid versus an above average one or thereabouts.
In Grundy's 6 games we won the clearance count in 50% of our games, without him we have won 3 of 10. Clearance per game are down 2 -3 per game without him also, yet we have won 8 out of the 10 games. Metrics are mixed a bit for me but do highlight the goals and CM's that Cameron brings.
Ignoring Grundy's contract, ( which we cant i know if we assume sans Grundy could mean in Taranto ) but for the remainder of the year, Grundy back in a slightly differrent mix, makes us a much better side.

On the clearance differential Grundy goes at 5.5 v Cameron’s 2.5 per game. Taking into account Cameron spent 3 matches as a 70% forward we’ll say that accounts for the roughly 2 per game differential.

What do you think of Grundy’s ball use exiting the stoppage? From my perspective he’s league worst. The number of times he’s tried a hack kick forward the past 18 months only to graze his boot sending it 6 metres sideways (under limited pressure) is frankly bizarre for an AFL footballer. If Grundy was purely handballing from stoppage I’d acknowledge his impact in the clearance, but when he kicks out of stoppage we’re a worse team.

FWIW in regards to a Grundy debate on whether we’re better with or without him in 2022 we are absolutely better off with him. The next layer of this debate which will piss me off no end is the VFL v AFL return. The guy will have 60 hitouts and 30 possessions at VFL level it’s as big a waste of time as any player ever playing at that level. This discussion from my perspective is more about whether in 2023 we’re better off with Cameron/ Taranto or Grundy/ Cameron? I think it’s the former based on how we play.

 

[Anzacday]

I think it’s the former based on how we play.

I’ve been encouraged by the training footage showing Grundy moving, (hand-balling) the ball.
His best season was also ours in 2018.
He just may well fit into this game plan
The issue will be how he approaches the ruck contests (as you’ve articulated earlier).

 

[Quicky]

What's Taranto's pace like?

 

[well left]

What's Taranto's pace like?

That’s my concern. He seems one-paced to me which we have plenty of.

We’re putting a fair amount of reliance on Reef to be our quick mid. In that respect I understand our interest in Hill.


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[well left]

On the clearance differential Grundy goes at 5.5 v Cameron’s 2.5 per game. Taking into account Cameron spent 3 matches as a 70% forward we’ll say that accounts for the roughly 2 per game differential.

What do you think of Grundy’s ball use exiting the stoppage? From my perspective he’s league worst. The number of times he’s tried a hack kick forward the past 18 months only to graze his boot sending it 6 metres sideways (under limited pressure) is frankly bizarre for an AFL footballer. If Grundy was purely handballing from stoppage I’d acknowledge his impact in the clearance, but when he kicks out of stoppage we’re a worse team.

FWIW in regards to a Grundy debate on whether we’re better with or without him in 2022 we are absolutely better off with him. The next layer of this debate which will piss me off no end is the VFL v AFL return. The guy will have 60 hitouts and 30 possessions at VFL level it’s as big a waste of time as any player ever playing at that level. This discussion from my perspective is more about whether in 2023 we’re better off with Cameron/ Taranto or Grundy/ Cameron? I think it’s the former based on how we play.

I don’t disagree with any of that, particularly the hack kick forward out of a centre clearance.

I’m prepared to hold fire and see how Grundy comes back in the last 4-6 weeks of the year. No doubt someone as intelligent as Grundy would have watched what has happened with interest and I have no doubt the coaching panel would have given him some instructions also.

I’d be disappointed if what we got in his return was what we’ve seen last year and what we’ve been frustrated by. FWIW I thought he was ok to start the year but I expect his pride and ego to have been pricked by the Cameron/Cox combo. If we got the last quarter of the Essendon game consistently then there’s no doubt he adds to what we’ve got now.


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