List Mgmt. Contract, Trade & Draftee Discussion - 2022 Off Season Edition

[Keys]

Contract status of all players now fully updated

The Contracts Thread

2024 List Changes : Out: Retired- Gaff Delisted - Jones, Trew(R), Baker(R), Witherden, Burgiel, Culley(R), Rotham, L Edwards Traded - Darling (NM) Barrass (Hawthorn) In: Trade/FA acquisitions - Graham (Richmond) Baker (Richmond) Owies (Carlton) Draft - Allan (Pick 16) Shanahan (Pick 30) Gross...

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[The Passenger]

I remember Nesbitt saying at one point that it was our plan to go into the draft with 5 picks in the top 30 to hasten our rebuild. Achieving this would be a good outcome.

Yeah but when clubs say this it's very vague. Same as the term "first rounder".

A top 3 pick is vastly different to a pick at the end of the first round even though both are first-round picks.

Same as Pick 2, 10, 15, 22 and 29 is vastly different to 8, 14, 21, 26 and 29 which is vastly different to 16, 21, 23, 27 and 30.

 

[DanWCE]

If ROB gets 8, 12, 15 for 2 I'll campaign to change his name from Pieman to Feathers O'Brien

 

[AsterixTheGaul]

Correct

I'm lead to believe through a source that the current offer ends with

WCE lose: 2, 26, Rioli
WCE gain: 8, 12, 19

Eagles are wanting the below in the mega trade

WCE lose: 2, 38, Rioli
WCE gain: 8, 12, 15

Now if we get what we want and don't fold

That's a bloody good deal of you ask me

Draft hand of 8, 12, 15, 20 and 26

Stop this bullshit that next year is a super draft. Happens every year

Hewett gone from pick 3 to outside top 10

Broadbent gone from best tall to a rookie projection

Focus on now and 5 picks in top 26 is a good position to be in

I’d do that and be very happy

Draft hand of 8, 12, 15, 20 and 26 plus 40 (would probably spell farewell to Witherden Winder Trew and West)

Allow us to get a great mixture of mids, a tall and a defender

I would also be prepared to take port’s future R1 instead of 15.

Yes I believe 2023 is stronger and I rarely say that. I am worried Simmo and our development coaches might struggle to bring on 5 top end talents along with what we got last year

 

[Obeanie1]

Yeah but the best player in the draft could also come in the second round too. The chances are just much slimmer.

I haven’t seen Wardlaw drop out of anyone’s top 2 or 3, but 6-10 you could put a hat over. So we’re taking 2 players and one of them might be as good as Wardlaw.

That to me is why I want some massive f*ck off deal or we take him (pending medical etc). We aren’t as desperate as the others and have a fall back option.

We need to be doing the Rioli deal first then seeing if we can package picks to move up to that range, not trade backwards with our most valuable piece first. Do it separately and see what else is out there.

As has been said multiple times over the last few pages. We need to come out of this trade feeling like the clear winner otherwise we should walk. We one of the ones that don’t need to be there

And Warldaw might not be as good as many think he is. Just as much chance he will be a solid AFL mid rather than the elite midfielder some on here are desperate to find.

He's a strong kid but not huge. He is most definitely stronger than most u18's and that likely won't translate into to top level. He will go from one of the strongest to a player of average size and strength at AFL level. He isn't a massive accumulator either.

So people who are so certain he is the one only have one eye open.

 

[AsterixTheGaul]

I feel insulted as a West Coast supporter that they are even coming to us with deals as awful as the currently proposed one. They must think there is some kind of chance we will cop that trade. They must think we are absolute chumps. ROB's reaction to these awful proposed trades is obviously not a sufficient amount of emphatic disgust.

It’s called negotiations.

Selective pieces get reported and we rarely give much to the press

 

[Cornelius Roy]

We’ve now gone from potentially having a 10-18 pick in next years strong draft to amassing 12-18 currency in this years weaker draft. I get hewett and Ginbey are there but why are we not trying to build currency for next year? I’d assume because no one wants to give it up, so we accept what we’re being offered despite the fact we’re the ones with the least urgency in this whole trade.

Looks to me like we’re trading a premium pick for market value to then pay a draft premium to ensure we secure WA based talent while premium talent drops to Victorian clubs.

If that’s the situation we find ourselves in because of tampering and player power this competition is genuine ****ing bullshit.

 

[Obeanie1]

Correct

I'm lead to believe through a source that the current offer ends with

WCE lose: 2, 26, Rioli
WCE gain: 8, 12, 19

Eagles are wanting the below in the mega trade

WCE lose: 2, 38, Rioli
WCE gain: 8, 12, 15

Now if we get what we want and don't fold

That's a bloody good deal of you ask me

Draft hand of 8, 12, 15, 20 and 26

Stop this bullshit that next year is a super draft. Happens every year

Hewett gone from pick 3 to outside top 10

Broadbent gone from best tall to a rookie projection

Focus on now and 5 picks in top 26 is a good position to be in

Would not trade 2, 26 and Rioli for 8, 12 and 19.

That's basically unders for 2 and 26 and Rioli for 19. A 7 spot upgrade for Rioli?

That won't cut it at all.

We keep 26 is more like it. Still not massive overs though.

2 and Rioli for 8, 12 and 19. Would like a future 3rd as well min.

 

[TOA.]

And Warldaw might not be as good as many think he is. Just as much chance he will be a solid AFL mid rather than the elite midfielder some on here are desperate to find.

He's a strong kid but not huge. He is most definitely stronger than most u18's and that likely won't translate into to top level. He will go from one of the strongest to a player of average size and strength at AFL level. He isn't a massive accumulator either.

So people who are so certain he is the one only have one eye open.

Agree. Wardlaw doesnt seem to be a rolled gold option for us. His size in particular is a worry in a world when the gun mids you want are nearer 190cm and massive blokes. He also has the hamstring issues and is a Vic Metro kid who goes to a private school in the poshest area of Melbourne. Just warning signs.

This just isnt a year when there is a clear top 2-3 i dont think. We lucked out abit and see why we are looking to trade down.

 

[Suma Magic]

I’ll give this a crack and I’ll assume Port get permission to trade out their future 2nd

West Coast
Give - 2,40,Rioli (2974)
Get - 8,12,15 (3084)
+110

GWS
Give - 3,12,15 (3877)
Get - 1,43,Port F2 (3585)
-292

North
Give - 1,JHF (6000)
Get - 2,3,33,40,Port F1 (6201)
+201

Port
Give - 8,33,43,F1,F2 (3374)
Get - JHF,Rioli (3355)
-19

Points are using the points table compiled by Suma Magic and valuing JHF as pick 1, Rioli as pick 30 and Port finishing 9th (picks 9 and 27)

GWS take a bit of a hit but they’re chasing Cadman so depends on how much they want him

Port get lucky but that’s due in part because they’re taking players wanting out of their respective clubs and it’s hard to get full value in those circumstances

For us we go to the draft with 8,12,15,20,26 rather than 2,20,26,40,78. We also lose Rioli

AsterixTheGaul and Monocle have described that 8-15 range as a bit of a sweet spot. This draft hand gives us 3 picks there albeit losing our pick at the pointy end. Tapping out at 26 in a shallow draft also is a good thing

It’s a good result for us and the other clubs look to get a fair outcome

Great to see you using the table, thank Keys.

 

[AsterixTheGaul]

Would not trade 2, 26 and Rioli for 8, 12 and 19.

That's basically unders for 2 and 26 and Rioli for 19. A 7 spot upgrade for Rioli?

That won't cut it at all.

We keep 26 is more like it. Still not massive overs though.

2 and Rioli for 8, 12 and 19. Would like a future 3rd as well min.

I guess each team will try to get the later bits like 40 not 26 or 26 with F3 coming back

The position of 8 12 and 15 feels better but I’m ok on the 19 as a fallback as it’s pick 1 on night 2

 

[Obeanie1]

The fact that we are still at the table listenning to and haggling over trades involving trading down/splitting pick 2 despite the fact that the deals being proposed so far are pretty uninspiring and unattractive to us tells me that we are pretty committed to trading down. I reckon that that decision has been made and we almost definately will end up trading down eventually.

Maybe you can also guess that the fact that the media reports of this deal are not suggesting that the deal is close to being done and the paperwork is being drawn up means that at least one party, hopefully including us, is not happy and not prepared to accept the deal in it's current form. The media report i just read on Foxpsorts said that it is "understood that the West Coast trading team are coming around to the idea", suggesting that we are still not totally happy with it and it is probably our objections holding it up.

The key point is we dont need to do this deal guys.

We can just say no, walk away and discuss pick trades pre draft or arrange deals on draft night.

Now the other clubs, they are under pressure to get deals done for players.

We have no reason to fold for a meh deal. So between North, Port and GWS if they want this to happen.........pony up and give us want we want or no deal. Simple.

 

[Obeanie1]

I’ll give this a crack and I’ll assume Port get permission to trade out their future 2nd

West Coast
Give - 2,40,Rioli (2974)
Get - 8,12,15 (3084)
+110

GWS
Give - 3,12,15 (3877)
Get - 1,43,Port F2 (3585)
-292

North
Give - 1,JHF (6000)
Get - 2,3,33,40,Port F1 (6201)
+201

Port
Give - 8,33,43,F1,F2 (3374)
Get - JHF,Rioli (3355)
-19

Points are using the points table compiled by Suma Magic and valuing JHF as pick 1, Rioli as pick 30 and Port finishing 9th (picks 9 and 27)

GWS take a bit of a hit but they’re chasing Cadman so depends on how much they want him

Port get lucky but that’s due in part because they’re taking players wanting out of their respective clubs and it’s hard to get full value in those circumstances

For us we go to the draft with 8,12,15,20,26 rather than 2,20,26,40,78. We also lose Rioli

AsterixTheGaul and Monocle have described that 8-15 range as a bit of a sweet spot. This draft hand gives us 3 picks there albeit losing our pick at the pointy end. Tapping out at 26 in a shallow draft also is a good thing

It’s a good result for us and the other clubs look to get a fair outcome

Are you valuing JHF as pick 1 points value? Presume you are.

That is where these type of anlaysis can get clouded.

When we look back 10 years how many pick 1's retain their status as the best player in that draft? Not many.

Daicos right now is the best player from 2021, not JHF. So IMO his value has diminished, especially based on form, attitude and application. JHF is not worth the points attributed to pick 1 until he shows a hell of alot more than he has.

 

[SumaGodCoach]

Great to see you using the table, thank Keys.

From 1 Suma to another I've bookmarked it for future reference

 

[Cornelius Roy]

I guess each team will try to get the later bits like 40 not 26 or 26 with F3 coming back

The position of 8 12 and 15 feels better but I’m ok on the 19 as a fallback as it’s pick 1 on night 2

Personally I don’t think pick 19 will hold the same currency this year, certainly as it did last year, due to the perceived lack of depth in the draft.

Is there a player in that range you can see clubs climbing over themselves to trade to if available?

 

[Obeanie1]

I'll be annoyed if we trade pick 2 but if we get Phillipou and Hewitt I'll be OK with it

On SM-S908E using BigFooty.com mobile app

Bingo. And that is how our recruiting team is thinking IMO.

 

[Suma Magic]

From 1 Suma to another I've bookmarked it for future reference

He was the greatest player of all time, then the greatest coach of all time. What a legend.

 

[SumaGodCoach]

Personally I don’t think pick 19 will hold the same currency this year, certainly as it did last year, due to the perceived lack of depth in the draft.

Is there a player in that range you can see clubs climbing over themselves to trade to if available?

Having the first 2 picks of day 2 is even better though. We could take who we want at 19 and still potentially flog off pick 20 for overs.

 

[swingdog]

I'm assuming that we're involved in this deal because:

a) we're keen to split pick 2 because we don't see substantial difference between the top draftees

b) we've talked to other clubs and nobody else is offering us two picks in the first round (or the first of those is too far back)

c) we want something from Rioli going and aren't prepared to let him walk

 

[Ambrose Burnside]

Bingo. And that is how our recruiting team is thinking IMO.

Is The Poo a pie man type pick?

 

[Jumpoff Joey]

Any chance we can do a Geelong just before the 11th hour?

8, 12, 15 + Port's F1 lol?

 

[Monocle]

I guess each team will try to get the later bits like 40 not 26 or 26 with F3 coming back

The position of 8 12 and 15 feels better but I’m ok on the 19 as a fallback as it’s pick 1 on night 2

After day one, that evening all teams white boards and strategies are revisited.
The phones are working from Clubs to Clubs, and there is a solid body of time within which to recalibrate.


And the first pick on night 2 can be very valuable as it can do one of two things.

• It can get you a F1 with Clubs really wanting player x and will forego their future first for that player.
• It can strengthen the hand of the team on night two.

 

[Cornelius Roy]

Having the first 2 picks of day 2 is even better though. We could take who we want at 19 and still potentially flog off pick 20 for overs.

We’re struggling to get overs for pick 2 at the moment.

Johnson was forecasted in the 10-14 range with hawthorn even considering taking him top 10. What player this year is there a chance of this happening for?

If overs didn’t come for goater last year, not sure we’ll get them this year.

 

[Carbine Chaos]

Not to be ‘that guy’, but we (100% correctly) stopped using a derogatory nickname for Ainsworth, surely the moniker people have adopted for O’Brien should go too?

 

[Wce17]

If the deal is 2, Rioli for 8,12 & 15 then I’d do it & then I’d hope we would get a haul like this.

9 - Phillipou
12 - Hotton/Hollands
15 - Hewitt/Ginbey
21 - Keller
26 - D.Jones/Gilbey/Kaleb Smith

You’d then hope that Baker & Dewar would fall through and we can grab them on the Cat B Rookie List

IMO that’s a win if we ended up with a haul like that. Suddenly when you add last years haul including & then what we could potentially get next year the youth coming through doesn’t look so bare.

 

[DanWCE]

Not to be ‘that guy’, but we (100% correctly) stopped using a derogatory nickname for Ainsworth, surely the moniker people have adopted for O’Brien should go too?

Absolutely. When we land 8, 12, 15. I'll lead the campaign.

Also that's the first time I've called him that