Corona virus, Port and the AFL.

[Coobk001]

Am I the only person getting pissed off at news segments and articles constantly calling our club out like it's the poorest footballing entity in th he country and has no chance of survival.

The SANFL is nearly ****ed completely. Several of the SANFL clubs will struggle to survive, especially pokies reliant clubs like the dogs, yet the future of a reserves team is the big topic.

Other AFL articles in SA always chuck us in as one of the lifeline clubs, without considering the several in a weaker spot than us, and the several Melb teams that are strategically of less value to t he AFL.

Make no mistake, survival will be borderline and I understand that, but the pick on good old Poort, who drain the SANFL, are broke and have no crowds narrative, is not only tired, but it's flat out false.

I mean if we do survive, we will have a reserves team in some shape or form. We have to, to compete at the AFL level. So the hysteria around the Magpies team is so pointless.

The worst part is all it does is try to confuse and dilute our identity more. We are the PAFC, we are in the AFL, and we have a reserves side that uses our historical nickname. The sooner people stop referring to the Magpies like it's another club the better. I'm so sick of the imbeciles that don't understand a logo, nickname and colours don't define a club.

#rantover

 

[GremioPower]

Am I the only person getting pissed off at news segments and articles constantly calling our club out like it's the poorest footballing entity in th he country and has no chance of survival.

The SANFL is nearly f’ed completely. Several of the SANFL clubs will struggle to survive, especially pokies reliant clubs like the dogs, yet the future of a reserves team is the big topic.

Other AFL articles in SA always chuck us in as one of the lifeline clubs, without considering the several in a weaker spot than us, and the several Melb teams that are strategically of less value to t he AFL.

Make no mistake, survival will be borderline and I understand that, but the pick on good old Poort, who drain the SANFL, are broke and have no crowds narrative, is not only tired, but it's flat out false.

I mean if we do survive, we will have a reserves team in some shape or form. We have to, to compete at the AFL level. So the hysteria around the Magpies team is so pointless.

The worst part is all it does is try to confuse and dilute our identity more. We are the PAFC, we are in the AFL, and we have a reserves side that uses our historical nickname. The sooner people stop referring to the Magpies like it's another club the better. I'm so sick of the imbeciles that don't understand a logo, nickname and colours don't define a club.

#rantover

We are fine. People are deliberately misinterpreting KT's words.

The risk of losing the Maggies is because there is a risk the SANFL will be gone. Since no one wants to talk about this, or so it seems, they talk about the Magpies.

It doesn't make any sense, but that doesn't matter for them.

 

[Doctor Feel]

 

[StuMan]

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

Decided to record figures and time stamp on worldometers site over the last 25 hours, as these people sleep sometime and its a US or UK site.

Over the last 25 hours - ie took closing reading for 1.30am ACDT on 1st = 3pm GMT 31st. aA staggering
69,000 new cases, 4,500 more deaths and 16,000 more recovered cases worldwide in 25 hours.



I will do a similar 24-25 hour period in a weeks time for comparison.

The mortality rate at 18% is a worry.

The mortality rate for closed cases is a lot higher than the dodgy 4.16% for China and South Korea who were able to bend the curve substantially between 4,000 cases and 8,000 case and cases have been increasing by only 1% per day since they got to 8,000 and deaths have stayed between 5 and 8 a day since they hit 8,000 on 14th March, for a total 162 deaths, and their mortality rate for closed cases is 2.93%.

Main reason I think it is so high for countries like Italy, Spain, USA, France etc is that they are swamped and their death rate is around 50% as death happens quickly when you run out of ICU beds and ventilators, but recovery takes around 3 weeks.

These are some of the staggering mortality rate for countries with the most deaths of 160 or more

Italy 44.2% dead as a % of total closed cases
Spain 32.7%
China 4.16% - dodgy
USA 36.5%
France 27.6%
Iran 16.5% - these may be dodgy numbers as reports of mass graves
UK 91.2%
Neth 77.5% - their government went an official herd immunity policy
Belgium 25.5%
Swiz 16.4%
Germany 4.6%
Sweden 92.0%
Turkey 50.9% - if it gets into Syrian refugee camps could be an absolute nightmare
Brazil 57.6%
S Kor 2.93%


Canada 7.5% - 92 deaths
Australia 7.2% - 19 deaths


So of those countries above only Germany and Australia have similar looking graphs for closed cases. From worldometers site and click on the link for individual countries. They only do detailed break downs for about 25 countries. None for Japan, Taiwan nd Singapore.

Germany COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer

Germany Coronavirus update with statistics and graphs: total and new cases, deaths per day, mortality and recovery rates, current active cases, recoveries, trends and timeline.

www.worldometers.info

Australia COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer

Australia Coronavirus update with statistics and graphs: total and new cases, deaths per day, mortality and recovery rates, current active cases, recoveries, trends and timeline.

www.worldometers.info

The Canadian one went screwy because the data wasn't correctly processed I think.

They had 9 deaths between 9th and 18th March then 3 on 19th and 7 on 22nd.

Their total recovered cases was 0 until 17th then 1 on 17th, 3 on 20th, 306 on 23rd then negative 208 on 24th and 73 on 24th. So that peak of 50% then rapid drop to 7% probably needs to be corrected.

Canada COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer

Canada Coronavirus update with statistics and graphs: total and new cases, deaths per day, mortality and recovery rates, current active cases, recoveries, trends and timeline.

www.worldometers.info

 

[Iwish]

State of emergency declared in Bali. The problem is that world tourism will have to shut down until places like Bali, Europe and the USA get the situation under control or someone finds a vaccine. What is the point of eliminating COVID-19 in Australia if someone returning from overseas brings it back in?

Have a friend who works for virgin they are thinking that our boarders might be closed to all international travel for at least 12 months. Unless the spread is controlled in all countries they won't be opened. There are fears from who that there are countries especially developing ones which could become new Italy's
So we won't be seeing overseas visitors for a while.
The govt wants to at least have domestic travel up and running by later this year if all things going well.
Many travel jobs in agencies airports will go.
Major hotel chains may go bust too with no overseas tourists etc. etc. A brutal time for all

 

[raptalia]

Latest reports are that the Federal Government is considering the Virgin offer of a bail out and stake in Virgin if the loan is not repaid. This will go against the grain for many in the Government who are ideologically oppsed to Government ownership but it may be the only way to ensure competition and prevent a Qantas monopoly.

 

[Del165198]

41k deaths out of 800k cases globally. 5% mortality rate.

If early studies are correct and the mortality rate is actually much lower, that means total cases are an order of magnitude higher.

Eg. If the mortality rate is only 1% then there are at least 4 million infections.

Disclaimer: I have no idea what the true mortality rate is.

 

[Holden Hillbilly]

The age group most represented in Australian statistics for confirmed cases of Covid-19 are people in their 20s, because they are the group most likely to travel or party with returned travellers, experts have said.

Data updated daily by the federal health department shows that 11.3% of confirmed cases of the coronavirus in Australia are among people aged 25 to 29, followed by 9.5% in those aged 60 to 65 – the cruise ship cohort – and 9.3% in those aged 20 to 25.

People aged 80 and older account for just 2.7% of the confirmed cases of Covid-19 but 47% of the deaths. As of 31 March, 19 people have died after testing positive to Covid-19 in Australia. The youngest was a 68-year-old man from Queensland, although a 36-year-old Australian man who had tested positive to Covid-19 died in a hospital in Iceland earlier this month.

 

[Stryke]

41k deaths out of 800k cases globally. 5% mortality rate.

If early studies are correct and the mortality rate is actually much lower, that means total cases are an order of magnitude higher.

Eg. If the mortality rate is only 1% then there are at least 4 million infections.

Disclaimer: I have no idea what the true mortality rate is.

Scientists always talk about 'known' cases.

I read that Iceland tested almost everyone because they could, and found almost the same amount of people had the virus without symptoms.

Chinas figures smell like bullshit to me.

 

[Del165198]

Am I the only person getting pissed off at news segments and articles constantly calling our club out like it's the poorest footballing entity in th he country and has no chance of survival.

The SANFL is nearly f’ed completely. Several of the SANFL clubs will struggle to survive, especially pokies reliant clubs like the dogs, yet the future of a reserves team is the big topic.

Other AFL articles in SA always chuck us in as one of the lifeline clubs, without considering the several in a weaker spot than us, and the several Melb teams that are strategically of less value to t he AFL.

Make no mistake, survival will be borderline and I understand that, but the pick on good old Poort, who drain the SANFL, are broke and have no crowds narrative, is not only tired, but it's flat out false.

I mean if we do survive, we will have a reserves team in some shape or form. We have to, to compete at the AFL level. So the hysteria around the Magpies team is so pointless.

The worst part is all it does is try to confuse and dilute our identity more. We are the PAFC, we are in the AFL, and we have a reserves side that uses our historical nickname. The sooner people stop referring to the Magpies like it's another club the better. I'm so sick of the imbeciles that don't understand a logo, nickname and colours don't define a club.

#rantover

You can thank kochie pushing the "little suburban battler club from Alberton" crap for that.

Theres a thread on the main board claiming we have less supporters than the likes of norf, st Kilda, Brisbane, Sydney...

Sydney has numbers but not actual supporters.

 

[Del165198]

Scientists always talk about 'known' cases.

I read that Iceland tested almost everyone because they could, and found almost the same amount of people had the virus without symptoms.

Chinas figures smell like bullshit to me.

Iceland has done 12k tests of 350k total population

 

[JimmyBeerCans]

You can thank kochie pushing the "little suburban battler club from Alberton" crap for that.

Theres a thread on the main board claiming we have less supporters than the likes of norf, st Kilda, Brisbane, Sydney...

Sydney has numbers but not actual supporters.

Yea I skimmed that nutter of a thread even the amount of Port supporters state wide that are not active for whatever reason would dwarf those malbun minnows.

 

[Jonts]

Latest reports are that the Federal Government is considering the Virgin offer of a bail out and stake in Virgin if the loan is not repaid. This will go against the grain for many in the Government who are ideologically oppsed to Government ownership but it may be the only way to ensure competition and prevent a Qantas monopoly.

There is enough massive airlines that they shouldn't be a problem look at what happened when ansett collapsed.

 

[raptalia]

There is enough massive airlines that they shouldn't be a problem look at what happened when ansett collapsed.

The problem is many airlines are in the same boat as Virgin. They are not flying and therefore not profitable. You can only set up in Australia if you have the funds to do so. Not surprisingly Qantas CEO Alan Joyce is opposed to the idea of the Government bailing Virgin out. Joyce is looking for a similar hand out which is fair enough provided it is a loan and if Qantas fail to pay it back the Government takes a slice of Qantas.

 

[Stewart2Austin Reborn]

Radical solution: Replace the entire SANFL with the Gold Coast Suns and North Melbourne, who would be the SA reserves teams and play 17 games against each other every year.

[✓] SANFL die
[✓] Dedicated reserves league
[✓] **** Norf

Win-win-win.

 

[Stryke]

Iceland has done 12k tests of 350k total population

Ah yes you are correct, the number relates to them having tested the lergest percentage of the population

Coronavirus: Iceland’s mass testing finds half of carriers show no symptoms

As the coronavirus pandemic surges worldwide, each piece of data counts in the fight against the deadly pathogen.But significant findings about the

english.alarabiya.net

 

[EskimoPAFC]

41k deaths out of 800k cases globally. 5% mortality rate.

If early studies are correct and the mortality rate is actually much lower, that means total cases are an order of magnitude higher.

Eg. If the mortality rate is only 1% then there are at least 4 million infections.

Disclaimer: I have no idea what the true mortality rate is.

I mean to answer the last part first, I think there is definitely significantly >4 million infections by now (though way more than 41k deaths too due to those unrecorded as COVID).

But to answer the first part, the mortality rates skyrocket once a system becomes overloaded. So someone in Australia getting it right now is probably a very low statistical chance of dying compared to someone in say Madrid.

Breaking down the Italian numbers as of March 30 by region, you can see the massive variance throughout the country in terms of deaths as a % of total cases (note that Lombardia got this first so has a higher % of closed cases and deaths is a % of total cases).

Lombardia has by far the highest mortality rate at 16%. Yet only 3.2% of cases have been in ICU - the non-Lombardia regions have an average (non-weighted) of 4.95% in ICU.

What this could mean is that Lombardia had a shitload of people that needed ICU to survive and didn't get it because they didn't have the resources to treat effectively.

 

[Holden Hillbilly]

 

[Holden Hillbilly]

 

[PAFC66]

150+ positive in NSW in past 24 hours.

Probably the Bondi pop up clinic

If I hear one more person say we are flattening the curve now.

 

[Enviable Tradition]

Decided to record figures and time stamp on worldometers site over the last 25 hours, as these people sleep sometime and its a US or UK site.

Over the last 25 hours - ie took closing reading for 1.30am ACDT on 1st = 3pm GMT 31st. aA staggering
69,000 new cases, 4,500 more deaths and 16,000 more recovered cases worldwide in 25 hours.

View attachment 850407

I will do a similar 24-25 hour period in a weeks time for comparison.

The mortality rate at 18% is a worry.

The mortality rate for closed cases is a lot higher than the dodgy 4.16% for China and South Korea who were able to bend the curve substantially between 4,000 cases and 8,000 case and cases have been increasing by only 1% per day since they got to 8,000 and deaths have stayed between 5 and 8 a day since they hit 8,000 on 14th March, for a total 162 deaths, and their mortality rate for closed cases is 2.93%.

Main reason I think it is so high for countries like Italy, Spain, USA, France etc is that they are swamped and their death rate is around 50% as death happens quickly when you run out of ICU beds and ventilators, but recovery takes around 3 weeks.

These are some of the staggering mortality rate for countries with the most deaths of 160 or more

Italy 44.2% dead as a % of total closed cases
Spain 32.7%
China 4.16% - dodgy
USA 36.5%
France 27.6%
Iran 16.5% - these may be dodgy numbers as reports of mass graves
UK 91.2%
Neth 77.5% - their government went an official herd immunity policy
Belgium 25.5%
Swiz 16.4%
Germany 4.6%
Sweden 92.0%
Turkey 50.9% - if it gets into Syrian refugee camps could be an absolute nightmare
Brazil 57.6%
S Kor 2.93%


Canada 7.5% - 92 deaths
Australia 7.2% - 19 deaths


So of those countries above only Germany and Australia have similar looking graphs for closed cases. From worldometers site and click on the link for individual countries. They only do detailed break downs for about 25 countries. None for Japan, Taiwan nd Singapore.

Germany COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer

Germany Coronavirus update with statistics and graphs: total and new cases, deaths per day, mortality and recovery rates, current active cases, recoveries, trends and timeline.

www.worldometers.info

View attachment 850417

Australia COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer

Australia Coronavirus update with statistics and graphs: total and new cases, deaths per day, mortality and recovery rates, current active cases, recoveries, trends and timeline.

www.worldometers.info

View attachment 850418



The Canadian one went screwy because the data wasn't correctly processed I think.

They had 9 deaths between 9th and 18th March then 3 on 19th and 7 on 22nd.

Their total recovered cases was 0 until 17th then 1 on 17th, 3 on 20th, 306 on 23rd then negative 208 on 24th and 73 on 24th. So that peak of 50% then rapid drop to 7% probably needs to be corrected.

Canada COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer

Canada Coronavirus update with statistics and graphs: total and new cases, deaths per day, mortality and recovery rates, current active cases, recoveries, trends and timeline.

www.worldometers.info

View attachment 850415

The mortality rate for closed cases only starts high because of the testing bias (the first people to get tested are those who have it).

It will end up dropping below the China rate everywhere.

The actual rate of infection (I.e. all people not just those tested will be even lower).

On SM-G960F using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[raptalia]

Just heard that China has admitted that people who tested positive but did not display symptoms were not included in their figures. You have to wonder what else is being fudged by the People's Republic.

 

[Del165198]

The mortality rate for closed cases only starts high because of the testing bias (the first people to get tested are those who have it).

It will end up dropping below the China rate everywhere.

The actual rate of infection (I.e. all people not just those tested will be even lower).

On SM-G960F using BigFooty.com mobile app

What? That's makes no sense.

You're assuming the China stats are trustworthy. Also assuming, as pointed out above, that mortality rate doesn't escalate when ICU beds aren't available, which we know it does.

 

[pastmyprimus]

150+ positive in NSW in past 24 hours.

Probably the Bondi pop up clinic

If I hear one more person say we are flattening the curve now.

I think the graphs are a useful way of tracking positive tests but they're not necessarily a good predictor of future positive tests. You're just taking one variable (past positive tests) and trying to use that data to project forward. It sometimes works but often not. The epidemiologits are using more sohpisticated models, and the models are telling us a surge is coming. We know community tranmissions numbers are growing, and that's a big risk.

I'd like to see the govenment report daily data on admissions to hospital and ICU, and the number of patients in ICU, true measures of how hard our hospital system is being hit. It would also be good to know how many admissions didn't test positive prior to admission. It would tell us how effective our testing has been to date. How many are being missed. Australia has done more tests per capita than most other countries but it's still less than 1%. Also, tests does not equal people as people are repeat tested. A single person may be tested 3-4 times.