I wonder if we will get as bad as Italy appears to be, I guess the measures taken by all governments will be judged with the benefit of 20/20 hindsight in 6 months to a year.
Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) 2020
- Thread starter briztoon
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Once it jumped from China, the best thing we could have done was close the boarders to international tourists as we finally did last night.
This was predictable. Not only was it predictable, it was predicted by the experts.
As the ABC doctor who publishes the daily coronacast says, “by acting early and decisively, the worst (and best) thing that could happen is, nothing happens at all”. “And that’s the whole point of acting early, nothing happens”.
The next best thing is that we really, really slow it down. Instead of being at 1000+ cases today, we’re maybe at ~100 cases, with the authorities aggressively tracing close contacts, and placing them in isolation quarantine in hotels.
Which what we should be doing right now. There are going to be hundreds of empty hotels in every state now that we’ve closed the boarders to international tourism.
Use some of that coronavirus budget to get suspect people out of their homes, away from their families, who they pose a risk to. Get them in hotels where private security can make sure they all stay isolated.
I’m not sure people fully understand what home isolation is. It’s isolated from the rest of the family, separated single room for 2 weeks, only allowed to use a cleaned out, sterile bathroom and toilet. No wandering about the house and yard with the family.
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People not doing the right thing unfortunately , compounded by our poor travel security.
No checking at airports for fever from what I've heard..
pulpdriver
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Your idea of isolation seems strange to me. Surely if everyone in the isolated area is disconnected from regular interactions with society no such measures are needed. If one of the members of the family is a doctor or someone regularly leaving the premises, then yeah, but otherwise this seems extreme unless one family member recently retured from overseas, in which case they should be quarantined in a different area. Even if we assume children coming from school are going to be the one to pass it on to parents are each parent being isolated in a room away from their family whilst their children come and go without any interaction?
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NZ has 52 cases and nil deaths. They have just announced that over 70s to be confined to their homes unless absolutely necessary. Family, friends and neighbours to go and get groceries etc and drop them at house.
Let’s see if Slo-Mo copies another idea from NZ.
Let’s see if Slo-Mo copies another idea from NZ.
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This is the requirement for an individual who has had close contact with someone with coronavirus. And for anyone who has returned from overseas and lives with people who haven’t been overseas.
The close contact is isolated, but the rest of the residents, whether they are family or house mates are allowed to come and go.
This not my idea. This was how it was explained by the doctor the ABC has who gives their daily updates.
Say it’s dad who has come home from work and after a close contact. He is supposed to live like this, while the rest of the family go about their normal life.
Would be much easier on mum, if he was properly isolated, and looked after by the State in a hotel.
As reported on the news tonight. There are people doing this now, footing the hotel costs themselves.
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NZ have gone from 5 cases to 52 in a week. I hope they’re all residents who returned home from overseas and are in self isolation.
pulpdriver
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Ding. Didn't see that reference on original post.
Fantastic idea, I have been wondering from the start of this why that wasn't the policy. Isolate the people most at risk, the rest of the community is at very low risk of facing serious consequences.... IIRC a fatality rate of around .2% of diagnosed cases among the younger demographics, it would be even lower than that if all those among the 80% who contract Corona but have no or very mild symptoms that don't seek treatment were counted in the official stats.
dlanod
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A friend of a friend is doing this - came home from overseas and set up in a hotel in Parramatta instead of heading home to her family. The hotel had no idea what to do.
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Yeah, we’ve picked out where one of us will stay if necessary.
The deciding factor was that it is right above one of the best eateries for Vietnamese street food, and there’s a fusion Vietnamese restaurant across the road for dinners.
I fully understand the lag concept.
Yet Italy still seems to be the worst case scenario on so many levels
I've gone back to this source
COVID Live Update: 240,767,464 Cases and 4,903,550 Deaths from the Coronavirus - Worldometer
Live statistics and coronavirus news tracking the number of confirmed cases, recovered patients, tests, and death toll due to the COVID-19 coronavirus from Wuhan, China. Coronavirus counter with new cases, deaths, and number of tests per 1 Million population. Historical data and info. Daily...
and had a look at the dates at which the majorly afflicted countries reached 1000+ cases, their attendant deaths as at those dates and their current (23 March) Death tolls
I'm not clever enough to tabulate all of it in a sensible format but Italy and now Spain and France now look like the epicentres of the virus as far as cases and deaths go.
On the other hand , Germany is returning big infection numbers but a very low death rate. Even the US is not at this point looking like the horror show that is unfolding in much of continental Europe.
I have no idea why this is so but it does demonstrate that not every country (irrespective of infection rates) has to end up being a mass killing ground for the virus,
My gut instinct is that the discipline of its citizens and the messaging of their Governments plays a bigger role than outright enforcement, especially in Western style democracies.
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Yeah, no one is clever enough right now to understand it all, there are about a billion different factors. We are grabbing at anything we can right now. It will all make perfect sense after the event.I fully understand the lag concept.
Yet Italy still seems to be the worst case scenario on so many levels
I've gone back to this source
COVID Live Update: 240,767,464 Cases and 4,903,550 Deaths from the Coronavirus - Worldometer
Live statistics and coronavirus news tracking the number of confirmed cases, recovered patients, tests, and death toll due to the COVID-19 coronavirus from Wuhan, China. Coronavirus counter with new cases, deaths, and number of tests per 1 Million population. Historical data and info. Daily...www.worldometers.info
and had a look at the dates at which the majorly afflicted countries reached 1000+ cases, their attendant deaths as at those dates and their current (23 March) Death tolls
I'm not clever enough to tabulate all of it in a sensible format but Italy and now Spain and France now look like the epicentres of the virus as far as cases and deaths go.
On the other hand , Germany is returning big infection numbers but a very low death rate. Even the US is not at this point looking like the horror show that is unfolding in much of continental Europe.
I have no idea why this is so but it does demonstrate that not every country (irrespective of infection rates) has to end up being a mass killing ground for the virus,
My gut instinct is that the discipline of its citizens and the messaging of their Governments plays a bigger role than outright enforcement, especially in Western style democracies.
Let's hope so.
I'm trying to remain optimistic in these terrible times.
Keep safe everyone.
- Thread starter
- #1,040
See my next post for a couple of snapshots that may provide a little more context.I fully understand the lag concept.
Yet Italy still seems to be the worst case scenario on so many levels
I've gone back to this source
COVID Live Update: 240,767,464 Cases and 4,903,550 Deaths from the Coronavirus - Worldometer
Live statistics and coronavirus news tracking the number of confirmed cases, recovered patients, tests, and death toll due to the COVID-19 coronavirus from Wuhan, China. Coronavirus counter with new cases, deaths, and number of tests per 1 Million population. Historical data and info. Daily...
and had a look at the dates at which the majorly afflicted countries reached 1000+ cases, their attendant deaths as at those dates and their current (23 March) Death tolls
I'm not clever enough to tabulate all of it in a sensible format but Italy and now Spain and France now look like the epicentres of the virus as far as cases and deaths go.
On the other hand , Germany is returning big infection numbers but a very low death rate. Even the US is not at this point looking like the horror show that is unfolding in much of continental Europe.
I have no idea why this is so but it does demonstrate that not every country (irrespective of infection rates) has to end up being a mass killing ground for the virus,
My gut instinct is that the discipline of its citizens and the messaging of their Governments plays a bigger role than outright enforcement, especially in Western style democracies.
In the USA, their hospital situation is worse than ours. I’ve lost count of the number of articles I’ve read of doctors saying they can’t get enough tests. Many hospitals have a daily ration of tests, and far fewer than what ours are. (Similar situation in the UK btw).
And while tests are now free(ish), treatment is not.
And as we’ve seen worldwide, we’re simply not seeing the true numbers and death toll.
This of course is the big issue with reported numbers versus actual.
People die every day for a multitude of reasons.
We are relying on the efficacy of the stats to come up with both Infection Rates and Death statistics.
There are almost certainly many more cases worldwide but without 100% testing of the entire population of the planet's 7.8 billion people, we'll never know how many more there are carrying the virus,
On the other side of the coin, how many more are dying from Covid 19 than are officially registered?
Or even less?
How reliable are the numbers coming out of China?
Or Iran or Italy?
Are those horrendous death tolls coming out of Italy all due to Coronavirus?....Are some of them due to other Influenza Strains but for expedience just all lumped together as "Coronavirus" deaths. Humans under stress do tend to take the line of least resistance.
This thing could be worse, or not as as bad as official counts are telling us.
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Try reading Sherlock Holmes some time, he and Watson spend a lot of time ejaculating at each other.
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There are 28 miliion people in Australia.
These test kits reportedly cost $100 each
That would make the total cost $2.8 Billion to produce sufficient for the entire population. Let's double that for distribution costs so $5.6 Billion
Total cash injection from the Government is now going to go to $189 Billion
Government's new $66 billion package will take coronavirus economic life support to $189 billion
Small and medium-sized businesses will get up to $100,000 in cash payments in the government's second stage of emergency assistance, worth a huge $66 billion, to cushion businesses and individuals as the coronavirus cuts a swathe through Australia's economy.
theconversation.com
Surely we could set 5 or 6 billion aside out of that to get the tests done.
There probably isn't anything like that quantity available at present (28 million) but surely getting as many produced and distributed ASAP should be an absolute priority
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