Covid 19 (OPEN DISCUSSION)

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I have seen a couple of posts now where you whinge about lockdowns or mask mandates for small numbers of cases, but then have also said that mask mandates don’t work because we currently have community spread. It seems like because the number of cases of Covid in WA is low, you don’t think there should be any of the regulations (for example, no quarantine-free travel and mask requirements in high risk situations) which are helping to keep that number low. When things inevitably escalate, will you also be opposed to the restaurant/bar/school closures from widespread Covid outbreaks, or the density restrictions which will come in as they have for most other states/territories dealing with the Omicron spike? I’m just trying to get clear what anti-Covid measures, if any, you would support.

The restrictions introduced over the last 6-12 months have been totally over the top. If the response to 1 case is mask mandates then what is the response to 100, 1,000, 10,000 cases? We going to increase restrictions a notch every time case numbers go up a notch, or turn restrictions up to 11 and leave them there? The threshold for a state to be declared 'extreme risk' for example was basically 'has some COVID'. Why would that change going forward? The risk posed by travellers entering WA was not extreme.

I'm not going to engage your logical fallacies about the effectiveness of masks, lockdowns etc. but the government needs to be REALISTIC about restrictions. You familiar with fire danger signs? Applying that to COVID right now WA is green. And the way the government carries on you'd think it was red and black. Hell I could dig out a risk matrix if you like. Risk = likelihood x severity. Low risk doesn't mean no consequence, it means the relationship between probability and consequence makes it something you can manage. The Boy Who Cried Wolf is recommended reading for Marko and friends.

The govt needs to set REALISTIC thresholds for COVID risk. If WA had 100,000 cases of COVID and the other states were exploding then there's a strong case to close the borders for a bit. Instead we have next to no cases outside 150 odd in iso and we won't open the border to people who have to test negative for COVID before departure and after arrival...

It's really not that controversial to suggest having proportionate measures in place. Restrictions for 0 cases, 1 case, 1000 cases, 10000 cases, 1m cases... I would "support" anti-COVID measures when there is, you know, COVID. If the govt insists on playing hard border COVID zero forever then leave everyone that can't go anywhere the **** alone.

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I know of a department that’s made a similar move. I doubt there’s anything more to it than “there’s a fair chance people are going to have to work from home at some point soon”.
I used to work for Government and saw an ex colleague last week. They've had a policy allowing up to do days working from home since 2020. I'm sure a lot of other departments would be the same.

This is likely just a security upgrade. I used to sit near the guys that managed the Government internet and they had foreign governments trying to hack them all the time, so security is a big deal. China was the worst culprit but the best thing was that the US had a crack from time to time 🤣
 
As opposed to the mandates being imposed by the leaders of every other Australian jurisdiction at the moment?
If you hadn't noticed, they are winding them back because of their unpopularity. Why are the other states not considering lockdowns when they have 20-30 daily deaths and would previously have had lockdowns for that many daily cases, to avoid 'preventable deaths'?

McGowan will do the same once a critical mass turns against the restrictions.
 


From the linked article


It is likely now, that even with millions of Covid cases in December and January, excess winter mortality this year will not even approach a bad flu year - let alone the levels we have seen in previous waves.

This is not to diminish how deadly and miserable flu can be. But in a bad flu year, Britain can experience 30,000 flu deaths without needing to shut down the economy, ask citizens to cut down their social engagements, or wear masks.

Many commentators and experts still believe that Covid is deadlier than flu because they are using a cumulative case fatality rate - which is currently running at around 0.9 per cent - nearly 10 times higher than flu.

But that figure is now misleading because it captures the high death rate before mass vaccination and widespread infection, and is another example of problems with the current data.

The other problem is that deaths are currently over-reported by the daily dashboard, suggesting the case fatality rate may be even lower.


ONS death statistics also show that more than a quarter of official Covid deaths are people who did not die as a direct result of coronavirus.

While it is impossible to predict the future, maybe omicron has given us hope that the virus is starting to behave like others before it: evolving primarily to spread, not to kill
 
If you hadn't noticed, they are winding them back because of their unpopularity. Why are the other states not considering lockdowns when they have 20-30 daily deaths and would previously have had lockdowns for that many daily cases, to avoid 'preventable deaths'?

McGowan will do the same once a critical mass turns against the restrictions.
NSW is far more pragmatic that you speculated - only the minimum restrictiuons ever appied and rapidly removed once the risk is reduced (not eliminated).The aim has always been to manage within the capacity of the health system. The aim has never been elimination.

The NSW health system is far more robust and well resourced that the WA one. I think the reality of a poor health systrem is what scares the WA govt. I am informed by professionals who have worked across a few states.

There are always malcontens looking for a headline but I had an ambo ride to a major hospital ED a few weeks ago. 13 minute wait for the ambo, well treated and straight into ED - heaps of staff. There were protocols in place but no stress. I regularly ride past 4 local testing stations within 4-5 km of home. There is no waiting at all now. The only time there was occured when people wanting to holiday in Qld had to test before leaving under a QLD policy.
 
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NSW is far more pragmatic that you speculated - only the minimum restrictiuons ever appied and rapidly removed once the risk is reduced (not eliminated).The aim has always been to manage within the capacity of the health system. The aim has never been elimination.

The NSW health system is far more robust and well resourced that the WA one. I think the reality of a poor health systrem is what scares the WA govt. I am informed by professionals who have worked across a few states.

There are always malcontens looking for a headline but I had an ambo ride to a major hospital ED a few weeks ago. 13 minute wait for the ambo, well treated and straight into ED - heaps of staff. There were protocols in place but no stress. I regularly ride past 4 local testing stations within 4-5 km of home. There is no waiting at all now. The only time there was occured when people wanting to holiday in Qld had to test before leaving under a QLD policy.
Who is more pragmatic?
1. NSW:
(a) 1449 Covid Death so far and continue to grow.
(b) Over $100 billion in debt projected next 4 years.
(c) NSW govt has removed the premier due to ICAC investigation.
(d) There was report about some NSW residents walking in the supermarket bare footed even when Covid restrictions were in place during the Delta outbreak.

2. WA:
(a) 9 Covid Death so far and mainly related to the Sydney Cruise Ship saga in 2020.
(b) WA is the only state that is in surplus projected next 4 years.
(c) The current WA govt had landslide win not too long ago with full support from the WA majority to fight Covid.
(d) The majority of WA residents love our WA healthy environment.
 
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Who is more pragmatic?
1. NSW:
(a) 1449 Covid Death so far and continue to grow.
(b) Over $100 billion in debt projected next 4 years.
(c) NSW govt has removed the premier due to ICAC investigation.
(d) There was report about some NSW residents walking in the supermarket bare footed even when Covid restrictions were in place during the Delta outbreak.

2. WA:
(a) 9 Covid Death so far and mainly related to the Sydney Cruise Ship saga in 2020.
(b) WA is the only state that is in surplus projected next 4 years.
(c) The current WA govt had landslide win not too long ago with full support from the WA majority to fight Covid.
(d) The majority of WA residents love our WA healthy environment.

That's a little selective though isn't it... I mean the counter argument could be something like:

NSW - free to travel and return (quarantine free) interstate and to select international destinations

WA - cannot leave the state and return without 14-days quarantine


It's all perspective - but different states are taking different paths (due, obviously, to their different situations).

McGowan is entitled to do what he thinks is best for WA - but I also think for the good of both WA residents/citizens and the rest of the country he really should get to announcing an opening up plan that he is going to stick to.
 

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That's a little selective though isn't it... I mean the counter argument could be something like:

NSW - free to travel and return (quarantine free) interstate and to select international destinations

WA - cannot leave the state and return without 14-days quarantine


It's all perspective - but different states are taking different paths (due, obviously, to their different situations).

McGowan is entitled to do what he thinks is best for WA - but I also think for the good of both WA residents/citizens and the rest of the country he really should get to announcing an opening up plan that he is going to stick to.
Priority, Priority, Priority.
Public health and safety and economy is always the important ones to consider.
Life is all about classifying what are essiential what are not; what activities are of high priority and focusing your resources to accomplish them.
Of course, we all have a slightly different way of ranking our own priority (self interests). Hence we have a elected govt to look after the public priority (public interests)
 
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Weren't China nailing and/or welding doors shut, literally forcing people to stay indoors in Wuhan after their initial outbreak?
They recently locked a city of 14 million for a few hundred cases and were welding people into their homes.

Not sure China's the greatest example of people with 'freedom'...
 
Priority, Priority, Priority.
Public health and safety and economy is always the important ones to consider.
Life is all about classifying what are essiential what are not; what activities are of high priority and focusing your resources to accomplish them.
Of course, we all have a slightly different way of ranking our own priority (self interests). Hence we have a elected govt to look after the public priority (public interests)

For sure, but it is also important that governments are accountable to those who elected them - and communicate clearly what the priorities are and why.

The current issue as I see it (from afar, and TBH I'm not really affected by it) is that McGowan hasn't clearly communicated what his aim is - or if he has, then he hasn't articulated what that looks like.

Is it no Covid ever (if so, that isn't going so well)

Is it protect the health system (that is what he is saying) - if so - what does that look like (not a moving target - a fixed target. Omicron is coming up on 2 months in Australia, and closer to 3 months in South Africa, UK etc).

Is it something else?


At what point does the lock-out do more damage than good (this is the same argument we have had over east around lock-downs). That might not be now - but I highly doubt the answer to that is 5 years, or even 1 more year.
 
Who is more pragmatic?
1. NSW:
(a) 1449 Covid Death so far and continue to grow.
(b) Over $100 billion in debt projected next 4 years.
(c) NSW govt has removed the premier due to ICAC investigation.
(d) There was report about some NSW residents walking in the supermarket bare footed even when Covid restrictions were in place during the Delta outbreak.

2. WA:
(a) 9 Covid Death so far and mainly related to the Sydney Cruise Ship saga in 2020.
(b) WA is the only state that is in surplus projected next 4 years.
(c) The current WA govt had landslide win not too long ago with full support from the WA majority to fight Covid.
(d) The majority of WA residents love our WA healthy environment.
whos has more restrictions and the winner is WA.
If you believe the press you are clueless. Stock photos of supermarkets with empty shelves dating bach to Qld floods do not make a crisis in my local (well stocked) supermarket. Just asa bit of occasional panic buying of dunny paper in Perth makes a crisis. ICAC has nothing to do with COVID- and the ex premier resigned an was not removed.The biggest economies in Aust ranked are First. Sydney, 2 Melbourne, 3 Western Sydney.
Believe what you like I guess.

Lots of crap governments have had landslide victories. wWthout being dramatic some have been the worst in the world so thats irrelevant. It is not relevant, but the current NSW Government belted the oposition in the last state election.

I have a home in Perth.

WA has the poorest public health system in AU. Interesting if you are so flash for cash.
 
Lots of crap governments have had landslide victories. wWthout being dramatic some have been the worst in the world so thats irrelevant. It is not relevant, but the current NSW Government belted the oposition in the last state election.

Second and third sentences are probably more linked than you realize.
 
whos has more restrictions and the winner is WA.
If you believe the press you are clueless. Stock photos of supermarkets with empty shelves dating bach to Qld floods do not make a crisis in my local (well stocked) supermarket. Just asa bit of occasional panic buying of dunny paper in Perth makes a crisis. ICAC has nothing to do with COVID- and the ex premier resigned an was not removed.The biggest economies in Aust ranked are First. Sydney, 2 Melbourne, 3 Western Sydney.
Believe what you like I guess.

Lots of crap governments have had landslide victories. wWthout being dramatic some have been the worst in the world so thats irrelevant. It is not relevant, but the current NSW Government belted the oposition in the last state election.

I have a home in Perth.

WA has the poorest public health system in AU. Interesting if you are so flash for cash.
Priority, Priority, Priority.
You seems to avoid the most important points about Covid Death and Economy and start talking about the less important ones.

Restriction is important to protect us as Australian and has been around for many many years and most people understand the needs for the restriction in a difficult time like this.(only some minority dont). Just one simple example is you are not allowed to bring an apple across a state border. Why are you not complaining about it?
 
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Who is more pragmatic?
1. NSW:
(a) 1449 Covid Death so far and continue to grow.
(b) Over $100 billion in debt projected next 4 years.
(c) NSW govt has removed the premier due to ICAC investigation.
(d) There was report about some NSW residents walking in the supermarket bare footed even when Covid restrictions were in place during the Delta outbreak.

2. WA:
(a) 9 Covid Death so far and mainly related to the Sydney Cruise Ship saga in 2020.
(b) WA is the only state that is in surplus projected next 4 years.
(c) The current WA govt had landslide win not too long ago with full support from the WA majority to fight Covid.
(d) The majority of WA residents love our WA healthy environment.
I'm not sure how anything from 2020 (way pre-vacc) is at all relevant to what we are discussing today. Or probably even the election at this point.

NSW and Vic. ICU cases

0.01%. Of double vaccinated people in ICU

1.5% of unvaccinated people in ICU

15 times more likely to be in ICU if you are unvaccinated
This for me is the far more relevant part of the debate when you talk about opening up.
 
I'm not sure how anything from 2020 (way pre-vacc) is at all relevant to what we are discussing today. Or probably even the election at this point.


This for me is the far more relevant part of the debate when you talk about opening up.
I am not sure what you are not sure!
 
I am not sure what you are not sure!
How the Feds and NSW government bungled a cruise ship in the chaos when this thing was kicking off has nothing to do with thought out policy decisions made today. Most people thought McGowan did the right things back then - there's very little debate on that. And to a large part people have supported the decisions up to late last year/early this year.

It's a barb about a **** up 2 years ago that has nothing to do with the conversation today.
 
How the Feds and NSW government bungled a cruise ship in the chaos when this thing was kicking off has nothing to do with thought out policy decisions made today. Most people thought McGowan did the right things back then - there's very little debate on that. And to a large part people have supported the decisions up to late last year/early this year.

It's a barb about a fu** up 2 years ago that has nothing to do with the conversation today.
NSW health hade a judgement that in hindsight, knowing more of COVID, they said was wrong. Sydney remains the gateway to the world and the problem was fixed. I know people arriving form OS - smooth and efficient, police escort to a hotel etc etc.

Our Constitution has not helped us. The Commonwealth pushed to do more but the States refused to cede authority - hence we have a bunch of fiefdoms. My view is that we have one to many levels of Government. But that will never change.
 
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