Cox Plate - Early Mail

[Rumbo]

I'm backing Desert War.I think it is in with a big show.This is one horse of Gai's I think is underrated.

 

[Hollypig]

Going to be a task from the barrier, but Fields of Omagh is 25's with IAS this morning. That'll do nicely.

 

[Pantsless]

The more I look the more I like Desert War. It's Epsom win was superb and it needs to win to run in the Melbourne Cup. Barrier 1 is perfect. Will not get any interference and has Lackers on board.

I also like Greys Inn. Mike De Kock is a very smooth operator and I think GI will push forward this time.

Xcellent, Super Kid and the Diva will be flying home in the outside.

I'm not convinced LOTM can win.

Confectioner (not good enough), Lotteria (not as good as we first thought), FoO (barrier), Tosen Dandy (sh it), Sky Cuddle (see TD), Hotel Grand (bad barrier for an on pacer at the Valley) can't win.

Outback Prince is interesting. Has D Beadman on board and it's Timeform rating is better than most of the other starters which is baffling seeing as he ran last in the Epsom.

God's Own would have been definite show if it weren't drawn to start from the Tabaret toilets.

 

[danielz_23]

God's Own would have been definite show if it weren't drawn to start from the Tabaret toilets.

Its only a small field... although this draw is a slight disadvantage I dont think its as significant as u make it to be.

Diva & Lad are the obvious picks for me.

Super Kid needs to be respected in the multiples... but not to win.

Gods Own & Greys Inn are right there.

Hotel Grand has gained some hype but I think this is a little out of reach.

FOO and Desert War... undecided as of yet

 

[Im The Gun]

i posted this on my site: http://the-racingshow.com

Confectioner - one of 3 form horses in melbourne, big chance if jockey thinks this time

Desert War - Won the Epsom, is goning to get a nice run from barrier 1 Should be in the finish for 2nd & 3rd.

Fields of Omagh - 4th run in, form as good as it was when he won this race 2 years ago, rain will help, will be front of Makybe Diva and can sit on the pace.

Greys Inn - Nice run when first up in Australia, Won on Dubai championship night and is a real international horse. could see him puttng in a big run here. Ran 2nd in HK to Vengeance Of Rain (HK’s best middle dist horse)

Lad of the Manor - loves the Valley, only horse this time in to beat Makybe Diva, will be midfield or better, only worry is class.
Have to have in multi bets.

Super Kid - Has put in 2 big handicap runs at last 2 starts. Was beaten by Greys Inn last time they met. Will be worse than midfield

Tosen Dandy - token overseas horse, shouldn’t be there

Outback Prince - a bit dissappointing in epsom after a good WFA run. Can’t have on that run

Xcellent - Great win last start in NZ, but I can’t have it just on that. beat a group of slow horses at best with 2nd being 10 and hasn’t won in years. Will start too short

Makybe Diva - Australia’s best horse who owns the Australian 2000m record. If this was at Flemington she would win and look the winner after 100m, but the turn at Moonee Valley worries me. I think she may be the risk of the spring at the $2.30, will get back to last and with 2 very good 3 year olds in this race, I am risking her.

Sky Cuddle - is a shock IMO, but form is good. spaced the field in group 1 3 starts back, then won with ease at Flemington, a little disappointing last time, and could fluke a place with a lot of luck.

Lotteria - gets 1.5kgs on Desert War for a 1.5l lost, Can’t really see her winning. She should be there abouts in the lead and with a soft pace I can see her finishing just outside a place.

God’s Own - Still can’t put into words his win last start.
checked twice, should have ran last by 15 lengths, but was fair too good for a good guineas field. I can see him winning with such a light weight, just worried about him getting too far back.

Hotel Grand - hard to believe that after just 5 starts this horse could win a Cox Plate. huge win last start, form better than Savabeels last year, can hold in there after a hard run and will be right in the finish with his turn of foot, I’ll back him at 6’s and above.
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I think Tosen Dandy should lead from Lotteria and there will be a fair pace going to the 1200. Sky Cuddle, Desert War & Hotel Grand with 48.5kg should all be in the first few going out of the start, Greys Inn should be on the rails behind them. Fields of Omagh maybe wide going out of the straight but should get in behind the pace. Lad Of The Manor & Super Kid could be getting all the favors with Confectioner a little wide outside of them. From barrier 6 Outback Prince will go back a little but ready to make his run ahead of Makybe Diva.
Makybe Diva & Xcellent should start making their moves coming to the 1000m and God’s Own will be in front of them. Lad of The Monor, Outback prince and Super Kid will all come out in front of them and should push the back 2 wide by the school.

My 3:
1) Hotel Grand - will get a lot of favors with a light weight
2) Makybe Diva - Champion mare, but will need a lot of luck
3) Sky Cuddle - at odds I think with a lot of luck may fluke a place

 

[Deej]

i reckon this is a no bet race.

 

[IDGAF]

i reckon this is a no bet race.

You know what ..... i reckon you are probably right

So many friggin variables it is not funny

It all hinges around Diva , she handles the track to her full ability she wins ..... but can she ?

And if she is to get knocked off ........ who ?

You could make a good case for about 8 of them but at the end of the day you can`t pick one with any real degree of confidence or certainty .

Box 5-6 in Tri is about the only option for mine and you will probably get some good value ... especially if the mare goes down

 

[danielz_23]

Why is it that Makybe needs luck?

 

[SaintsSupporter]

Why is it that Makybe needs luck?

Because she comes from the back, and because the straight at Moonee Valley is so short, she'll need a perfect ride to win.

I just watched the TVN special on the Cox Plate 1993-2004, and not one backmarker won any of the races in that time. NOT ONE. It was all the likes of Northerly, Sunline, Fields of Omagh e.g.

Take that into consideration, people.

 

[IDGAF]

Because she comes from the back, and because the straight at Moonee Valley is so short, she'll need a perfect ride to win.

I just watched the TVN special on the Cox Plate 1993-2004, and not one backmarker won any of the races in that time. NOT ONE. It was all the likes of Northerly, Sunline, Fields of Omagh e.g.

Take that into consideration, people.

.... and the fact that she has never won at the Valley

 

[SaintsSupporter]

.... and the fact that she has never won at the Valley

Exactly. 2.20-2.60 is absolutely rediculous odds.

 

[Pantsless]

Exactly. 2.20-2.60 is absolutely rediculous odds.

$2.10 on TAB Fixed Odds.

The bookies will make alot of money this weekend I think.

 

[CoggaRules]

the whole race will rely on the weather, so prefer to wait for the day, but if its dry, which most likely not, Xcellent will win by panels.

 

[Deej]

As said above, just too many variables in this. It reminds me of an early 2yo race/lottery, who knows how the hell hotel grand will go for example? Diva is a good horse but you just don't win cox plates coming from last, not often anyway.

Everyone save your money and back the jap horse in the cup, better odds for a better horse, and with less weight to boot.

 

[CoggaRules]

As said above, just too many variables in this. It reminds me of an early 2yo race/lottery, who knows how the hell hotel grand will go for example? Diva is a good horse but you just don't win cox plates coming from last, not often anyway.

Everyone save your money and back the jap horse in the cup, better odds for a better horse, and with less weight to boot.

yep spot on there deej, nearly fell over when i saw the weight he is going to carry in the big one.

 

[Dr Nick043]

I think Diva is past the post.........Has been set for the race & while MV is not a course for backmarkers the pace will be on & I can see her making a move that will have her within striking distance on the point of the turn & with a full head of steam!!

 

[dougthelegend]

I think Diva could win it, but as others have said, under $3 for some pretty big doubts the only way I'll have money on her is boxed up in a trifecta. She's been running more shorter distance races lately and had been trained for this race this year
(I don't think they're just using it as a leadup - if they were targeting the Cup surely the Caulfield would have been ahead of this, they desperatley want to win this)

I think the best value is in FOO to place, good horse, over $20 for the win you'll get better odds on this than Diva to win. Is it fit enough to cope with an average barrier draw? It will be giving weight to most horses in the field, is it good enough to overcome this? I'll be having a bit on this horse, it is a better horse than those odds suggest.

Lad is the best chance to beat her and is also decent value at over $7, great MV record the only problem is distance, but its not a huge query. Still good value.

God's Own is the best of the lightweights, has been running great times on MV in training, and has been impressive in the leadup. Not as good a horse as the above, but given its weight advantage, its a big chance. If it stays at over $10 I'll have some on it.

 

[bresker]

I don't read much into Makybe Diva not winning at the Valley. Last time out there she would have run down Lad of the Manor if she had an extra 200m - although El Segundo would have got them both. I wonder if El Segundo's connections wish they were running this Saturday rather than last?

 

[Bloods]

Hotel Grand is the one I'll be backing, mainly for value and a bit of interest. Just might have a chance if Boss leaves his run too late on Makybe. Maybe something each-way on Fields of Omagh who loves the valley.

Bottom line is: The diva handles the Valley, she wins.

 

[andrew coombs]

I agree. Without El Segundo the race is missing a real rising star. I wish they had of bypassed the cup and gone for glory on Saturday. The 2040m would be cherry ripe and he would have run second fav at a distance at which he has performed at group 1 level. I have no doubts he will measure up to WFA.

 

[Im The Gun]

God's Own is the best of the lightweights, has been running great times on MV in training, and has been impressive in the leadup. Not as good a horse as the above, but given its weight advantage, its a big chance. If it stays at over $10 I'll have some on it.

I can name 3 horses who were all champion's in their track work, yet all couldn't race through their classes.

While track times are a ok guide, do not go by them for races like this.
I have riden a lot of track work, Cullen & Keeper (as a 2 & early 3 year old) were mine while I was at Rogies in Melbourne, both couldn't get out of first gear in track work. a Filly I looked after and rode In Vain was Rogies test horse, no horse could work as well as her, no horse would get near her times yet she won a maiden (very well I might add) and that was it.

I did like something I saw the other day tho with Makybe Diva's track work.
She had her ears ping back when going after the work mate, got up next to him, pricked the ears, then put them back and went on with the job.
That shows that she's enjoying her work and enjoying beating other horses. She's looking the best I've seen her and she will be hard to beat, but will need a lot of luck.

 

[dougthelegend]

I don't read much into Makybe Diva not winning at the Valley. Last time out there she would have run down Lad of the Manor if she had an extra 200m - although El Segundo would have got them both. I wonder if El Segundo's connections wish they were running this Saturday rather than last?

Makybe's MV record is nothing special, and for such a short-priced favourite in a quality field on MV that is a HUGE concern. I'm steering clear, far too short, it may well go on to win, but its not worth $2.10.

Gods Own is the horse to beat, but Xcellent and Greys Inn are right up there. Both are paying over the odds at the moment and are a much better bet than Diva. Lad can't be discounted, but I don't think it will win, 2nd or 3rd for mine.

 

[whykickamoocow]

Makybe's MV record is nothing special, and for such a short-priced favourite in a quality field on MV that is a HUGE concern. I'm steering clear, far too short, it may well go on to win, but its not worth $2.10.

Gods Own is the horse to beat, but Xcellent and Greys Inn are right up there. Both are paying over the odds at the moment and are a much better bet than Diva. Lad can't be discounted, but I don't think it will win, 2nd or 3rd for mine.

I say the the mare has good form at the valley two seconds and a fourth in three runs, but your right its a tight-turning course. but i think Glen Boss knows the horse better than any jockey on any other horse in the race therefore will have him ready to unleash the fury when the time is right!

 

[Lockyer24]

1. LOTM
2. Makybe
3. Desert War

Heres hoping a Sydney 3YO doesn't do me over again for the billionth time

 

[Dr Nick043]

I think Diva is past the post.........Has been set for the race & while MV is not a course for backmarkers the pace will be on & I can see her making a move that will have her within striking distance on the point of the turn & with a full head of steam!!

As if I had read the script