Speculation Dan Houston [UFA 2027]

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I was actually quite surprised on the night to see Houston get another jacket last week, just off the gut feel of it, and now that I’ve dug a bit deeper, I’m actually baffled.

Last year he got in off a 62 coaches vote season. Perfectly understandable. No brainer. This year…

26 votes. 26!

Things That Make You Go Hmmm 🤔

Sinclair last year received 77, and this year, 44.

So almost 70% more coaches votes this year than Houston.

121 votes for Sincs and 88 for Houston, across the two years.

Some key stats for the year. Both played 22 games.

Disposals:
Sinclair- 596
Houston- 507

Contested possessions:
Sinclair- 186
Houston- 125

Effective disposals:
Sinclair- 448
Houston- 416

Clearances:
Sinclair- 67
Houston- 31

Centre clearances:
Sinclair- 26
Houston- 8

Ground ball gets:
Sinclair- 151
Houston- 89

F50 ground ball gets:
Sinclair- 11
Houston- 4

Score Involvements
Sinclair- 133
Houston- 108

Pressure acts:
Sinclair- 396
Houston- 292

Running bounces:
Sinclair- 15
Houston- 3

Then there were lots of areas where there was little to nothing in it (goals, marks, tackles, inside 50’s, goal assists, rebound 50’s, 1%ers, score launches), more areas where Sinclair was noticeably ahead, that aren’t really worth mentioning, some areas where Houston was up by a bit that aren’t really worth mentioning, and these are the only key areas where Houston had the really clear advantage.

Contested marks:
Houston- 12
Sinclair- 2

Metres gained (per game)
Houston- 488m
Sinclair- 457m

Intercept marks:
Houston- 36
Sinclair- 20

Spoils:
Houston- 29
Sinclair- 13

Fair to say, after looking through the stats, that it’s very easy to see why Sinclair received almost 70% more coaches votes than Houston did this year. Despite his team winning 5 less games.

90 more disposals, 50% more contested possessions, 70% more ground ball gets, double the clearances, triple the centre clearances, triple the F50 ground ball gets, 30% more pressure acts, 20% more score involvements.

Obviously spending more time in the midfield helps Sinclair get better numbers in many of those stats, but they are a whole lot of the most important stats in footy right there, and Sinclair was well ahead to smashing him in all of them.

AFL Fantasy
Sinclair- $938,000
Houston- $831,000

SuperCoach
Sinclair- $594,700
Houston- $526,800

Coaches votes:
Sinclair- 44
Houston- 26

Baffling decision to pick Houston over Sinclair.

Wanganeen-Milera also received 35% more coaches votes than Houston, with 35. Again, despite his team winning 5 less games, which significantly reduces your chance of receiving votes.

Total coaches votes
63- M Holmes
46- N Martin
46- B Dale
44- J Sinclair
43- D Zorko (AA)
41- L Whitfield (AA)
40- N Blakey (AA)
38- C Wilkie
38- T Stewart
35- Wanganeen-Milera
30- J Clark
27- J Impey
26- D Houston (AA)
25- A McGrath
24- L Ryan (AA)

Dan gets 1 more coaches vote than Andy McGrath and 1 less than Jarman Impey and makes the team, while Max Holmes (who spent plenty of time off HB- certainly wayyy more than Nick Daicos spent on the wing!) gets a whopping 63 votes, and misses out.

Truly astonishing.

Holmes to the bench, Whitfield to the HBF, Houston the hell out of there.

Last year the two guys named on the HBF’s received 77 and 62 coaches votes respectively.

This year, 43 and 26! WTF!

Yawn 🥱🥱🥱

Dribble
 
I was actually quite surprised on the night to see Houston get another jacket last week, just off the gut feel of it, and now that I’ve dug a bit deeper, I’m actually baffled.

Last year he got in off a 62 coaches vote season. Perfectly understandable. No brainer. This year…

26 votes. 26!

Things That Make You Go Hmmm 🤔

Sinclair last year received 77, and this year, 44.

So almost 70% more coaches votes this year than Houston.

121 votes for Sincs and 88 for Houston, across the two years.

Some key stats for the year. Both played 22 games.

Disposals:
Sinclair- 596
Houston- 507

Contested possessions:
Sinclair- 186
Houston- 125

Effective disposals:
Sinclair- 448
Houston- 416

Clearances:
Sinclair- 67
Houston- 31

Centre clearances:
Sinclair- 26
Houston- 8

Ground ball gets:
Sinclair- 151
Houston- 89

F50 ground ball gets:
Sinclair- 11
Houston- 4

Score Involvements
Sinclair- 133
Houston- 108

Pressure acts:
Sinclair- 396
Houston- 292

Running bounces:
Sinclair- 15
Houston- 3

Then there were lots of areas where there was little to nothing in it (goals, marks, tackles, inside 50’s, goal assists, rebound 50’s, 1%ers, score launches), more areas where Sinclair was noticeably ahead, that aren’t really worth mentioning, some areas where Houston was up by a bit that aren’t really worth mentioning, and these are the only key areas where Houston had the really clear advantage.

Contested marks:
Houston- 12
Sinclair- 2

Metres gained (per game)
Houston- 488m
Sinclair- 457m

Intercept marks:
Houston- 36
Sinclair- 20

Spoils:
Houston- 29
Sinclair- 13

Fair to say, after looking through the stats, that it’s very easy to see why Sinclair received almost 70% more coaches votes than Houston did this year. Despite his team winning 5 less games.

90 more disposals, 50% more contested possessions, 70% more ground ball gets, double the clearances, triple the centre clearances, triple the F50 ground ball gets, 30% more pressure acts, 20% more score involvements.

Obviously spending more time in the midfield helps Sinclair get better numbers in many of those stats, but they are a whole lot of the most important stats in footy right there, and Sinclair was well ahead to smashing him in all of them.

AFL Fantasy
Sinclair- $938,000
Houston- $831,000

SuperCoach
Sinclair- $594,700
Houston- $526,800

Coaches votes:
Sinclair- 44
Houston- 26

Baffling decision to pick Houston over Sinclair.

Wanganeen-Milera also received 35% more coaches votes than Houston, with 35. Again, despite his team winning 5 less games, which significantly reduces your chance of receiving votes.

Total coaches votes
63- M Holmes
46- N Martin
46- B Dale
44- J Sinclair
43- D Zorko (AA)
41- L Whitfield (AA)
40- N Blakey (AA)
38- C Wilkie
38- T Stewart
35- Wanganeen-Milera
30- J Clark
27- J Impey
26- D Houston (AA)
25- A McGrath
24- L Ryan (AA)

Dan gets 1 more coaches vote than Andy McGrath and 1 less than Jarman Impey and makes the team, while Max Holmes (who spent plenty of time off HB- certainly wayyy more than Nick Daicos spent on the wing!) gets a whopping 63 votes, and misses out.

Truly astonishing.

Holmes to the bench, Whitfield to the HBF, Houston the hell out of there.

Last year the two guys named on the HBF’s received 77 and 62 coaches votes respectively.

This year, 43 and 26! WTF!
I like how you completely ignore the part where Dan was rated the most damaging kick in the league for launches from the backline.

You've also included a bunch of irrelevant metrics like clearances, which I'm pretty sure isn't too high up on the AA selectors criteria rankings when selecting a backman.

I don't watch St Kilda but a quick look at those stats suggests Sinclair probably spent more time in the middle than Dan hence the higher clearences and disposals. Again not too relevant when selecting an AA backman.

What else you got?
 

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If Melbourne re-enter the race for Houston, I'll never forgive the club. It'd be the dumbest acquisition. nothing on Dan Houston. If he was 22 or 23 then sure, but not at his age. Not only that, I'd never be able to converse with anyone who believes that bringing in Houston was a good idea. It goes back to the Grundy trade. There were supporters that either wanted it, or didn't want it and offering up a first rounder is a far bigger stake.
 
I like how you completely ignore the part where Dan was rated the most damaging kick in the league for launches from the backline.

You've also included a bunch of irrelevant metrics like clearances, which I'm pretty sure isn't too high up on the AA selectors criteria rankings when selecting a backman.

I don't watch St Kilda but a quick look at those stats suggests Sinclair probably spent more time in the middle than Dan hence the higher clearences and disposals. Again not too relevant when selecting an AA backman.

What else you got?

30% CBAS for the year helps. Including 5 games with more than 70% cba.

Houston had 0. Not a single center bounce attendance for the entire year

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If Melbourne re-enter the race for Houston, I'll never forgive the club. It'd be the dumbest acquisition. nothing on Dan Houston. If he was 22 or 23 then sure, but not at his age. Not only that, I'd never be able to converse with anyone who believes that bringing in Houston was a good idea. It goes back to the Grundy trade. There were supporters that either wanted it, or didn't want it and offering up a first rounder is a far bigger stake.
Stop moaning. If Melbourne believe a dual AA will be a good fit and improve the side they ll get him.
 
Stop moaning. If Melbourne believe a dual AA will be a good fit and improve the side they ll get him.
of course he will improve the side..you're missing the point. Do you have any concept of list management? Do you think it's wise for a team like North Melbourne or WCE to spend a first rounder on a 28 year old? Of course not. Melbourne is rebuilding and is no different. It's not the time to be wasting it on 28 year olds that won't even be playing by the time we are pushing up for contention. etc.
 
of course he will improve the side..you're missing the point. Do you have any concept of list management? Do you think it's wise for a team like North Melbourne or WCE to spend a first rounder on a 28 year old? Of course not. Melbourne is rebuilding and is no different. It's not the time to be wasting it on 28 year olds that won't even be playing by the time we are pushing up for contention. etc.

* 27 year old. He turns 28 in the middle of May.
 
I was actually quite surprised on the night to see Houston get another jacket last week, just off the gut feel of it, and now that I’ve dug a bit deeper, I’m actually baffled.

Last year he got in off a 62 coaches vote season. Perfectly understandable. No brainer. This year…

26 votes. 26!

Things That Make You Go Hmmm 🤔

Sinclair last year received 77, and this year, 44.

So almost 70% more coaches votes this year than Houston.

121 votes for Sincs and 88 for Houston, across the two years.

Some key stats for the year. Both played 22 games.

Disposals:
Sinclair- 596
Houston- 507

Contested possessions:
Sinclair- 186
Houston- 125

Effective disposals:
Sinclair- 448
Houston- 416

Clearances:
Sinclair- 67
Houston- 31

Centre clearances:
Sinclair- 26
Houston- 8

Ground ball gets:
Sinclair- 151
Houston- 89

F50 ground ball gets:
Sinclair- 11
Houston- 4

Score Involvements
Sinclair- 133
Houston- 108

Pressure acts:
Sinclair- 396
Houston- 292

Running bounces:
Sinclair- 15
Houston- 3

Then there were lots of areas where there was little to nothing in it (goals, marks, tackles, inside 50’s, goal assists, rebound 50’s, 1%ers, score launches), more areas where Sinclair was noticeably ahead, that aren’t really worth mentioning, some areas where Houston was up by a bit that aren’t really worth mentioning, and these are the only key areas where Houston had the really clear advantage.

Contested marks:
Houston- 12
Sinclair- 2

Metres gained (per game)
Houston- 488m
Sinclair- 457m

Intercept marks:
Houston- 36
Sinclair- 20

Spoils:
Houston- 29
Sinclair- 13

Fair to say, after looking through the stats, that it’s very easy to see why Sinclair received almost 70% more coaches votes than Houston did this year. Despite his team winning 5 less games.

90 more disposals, 50% more contested possessions, 70% more ground ball gets, double the clearances, triple the centre clearances, triple the F50 ground ball gets, 30% more pressure acts, 20% more score involvements.

Obviously spending more time in the midfield helps Sinclair get better numbers in many of those stats, but they are a whole lot of the most important stats in footy right there, and Sinclair was well ahead to smashing him in all of them.

AFL Fantasy
Sinclair- $938,000
Houston- $831,000

SuperCoach
Sinclair- $594,700
Houston- $526,800

Coaches votes:
Sinclair- 44
Houston- 26

Baffling decision to pick Houston over Sinclair.

Wanganeen-Milera also received 35% more coaches votes than Houston, with 35. Again, despite his team winning 5 less games, which significantly reduces your chance of receiving votes.

Total coaches votes
63- M Holmes
46- N Martin
46- B Dale
44- J Sinclair
43- D Zorko (AA)
41- L Whitfield (AA)
40- N Blakey (AA)
38- C Wilkie
38- T Stewart
35- Wanganeen-Milera
30- J Clark
27- J Impey
26- D Houston (AA)
25- A McGrath
24- L Ryan (AA)

Dan gets 1 more coaches vote than Andy McGrath and 1 less than Jarman Impey and makes the team, while Max Holmes (who spent plenty of time off HB- certainly wayyy more than Nick Daicos spent on the wing!) gets a whopping 63 votes, and misses out.

Truly astonishing.

Holmes to the bench, Whitfield to the HBF, Houston the hell out of there.

Last year the two guys named on the HBF’s received 77 and 62 coaches votes respectively.

This year, 43 and 26! WTF!
This tells me that Corn not only bullies nuffies ringing up SEN but also the AA selection committee.
 
Sorry but you can keep Houston, we need elite mids not another outside hbf. If the Saints even contemplate trading for him SOS needs to be run down in the RSEA car park.
 

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Facts please.

Quoting myself from our board and ofcourse I have no knowledge outside what’s reported.

I don’t understand how Carlton could possibly fit him in their salary cap. They have Walsh, Curnow, McKay, Weitering, Williams and Cripps reportedly all on 850k+ (Cripps on 1M this year so this is a generous approximation), then you’d imagine Houston would be on around 750k as well.

That would be 7/46 on their list taking approx $5.85M. The total salary cap is $15.8M currently. So 7 players account for 1/3 of their salary cap leaving approx $10M to be spread amongst the other 39 players on the list which is an ave salary of $256K.

This includes the likes of Cerra, TDK, McGovern, Docherty etc who would be above the AFL average wage and you imagine $600k or so.

The average AFL wage is $441K.

These numbers don’t compute… is half their list being paid 250k or less to balance the sheets here? Seems unlikely.
 
The daniel Rioli trade will happen pretty quickly and might set the scene for the value of HBF 'ers
 
Horne Francis and rozee and butter are worth two first rounders not a 27 year old half back player, would u pay 2 x first routers for Sinclair? No

That’s besides the point.

Houston’s a contracted multiple AA player and top in his position. If clubs want him, it’s reasonable that they pay overs.
 

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Speculation Dan Houston [UFA 2027]

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