World Cup Difficulty Level For UEFA European Countries To Qualify For The World Cup

[Abram Jones]

UEFA has 14 spots for the 2018 World Cup. Here are the major European countries with their economic determinant (a number that estimates countries potential based on gdp per capita and population amount). See this video for more commentary:

Germany: 32.4 million
France: 26.5 million
Italy: 21.3 million
England: 20.1 million
Russia: 15.2 million
Spain: 14.5 million

Netherlands: 8.4 million
Turkey: 7.3 million
Switzerland: 5.8 million
Sweden: 4.9 million
Belgium: 4.9 million
Poland: 4.8 million
Norway: 4.3 million
Austria: 3.9 million
Denmark: 3.2 million
Greece: 3 million

Finland: 2.5 million
Portugal: 2.3 million
Israel: 2.3 million
Ireland: 2.2 million
Czechia: 2.1 million
Scotland: 2 million
Romania: 1.7 million
Kazakhstan: 1.5 million
Ukraine: 1.4 million
Hungary: 1.3 million
Wales: 1.2 million

Slovakia: 892,000
Northern Ireland: 689,000
Croatia: 597,000
Belarus: 552,000
Azerbaijan: 529,000
Luxembourg: 524,000
Bulgaria: 499,000
Slovenia: 480,000
Serbia: 395,000
Lithuania: 371,000
Cyprus: 336,000
Latvia: 237,000
Estonia: 195,000
Bosnia Herzegovina: 172,000
Iceland: 132,000
Georgia: 132,000
Albania: 117,000

Conclusion: Though competition is extremely heavy in Europe, the largest group of European countries still should have a relatively easy time qualifying even if playing somewhat below par. The next group of countries is in a much more difficult situation as the 3rd group is close to them in economic size, and the 4th group is full of over achievers. Difficulty for the 3rd and 4th groups are extremely high... slightly harder than in Asia even if skill differences between continents are ignored. The only country below these groups that may qualify is Montenegro of the former Yugoslavia. How far they have gone is nothing short of amazing.

 

[WealstoneRaider]

It has to be one of the hardest confederates to qualify from. It is very hard to get even groups because it's based on FIFA rankings. You always get a couple of piss easy groups and a couple of group of deaths where a good team will invariably miss out. I think the number of spots is about right though. I wonder how often Australia or the US would qualify if they were in UEFA

 

[Fryer Tuck]

It has to be one of the hardest confederates to qualify from. It is very hard to get even groups because it's based on FIFA rankings. You always get a couple of piss easy groups and a couple of group of deaths where a good team will invariably miss out. I think the number of spots is about right though. I wonder how often Australia or the US would qualify if they were in UEFA

The big major problem for me is that if a 'big' nation has a slightly bad previous session, and a smaller nation absolutely smashes it, you get situations where you can end up with Italy and Spain in the same group for instance. Then on the flip side, you get Serbia and Wales or Croatia and Iceland in the same group as top seeds.

As noted many times, we're going to see the introduction of the Nations League, which will determine qualifying for both Euros and World Cup. One point of controversy is that a 'League D' nation (bottom 16) has a chance to take up a qualifying spot.

As things stand, at least one of these nations will be in the Euros and World Cup:

Cyprus
Estonia
Lithuania
Kazakhstan
Finland
Georgia
Andorra
Latvia
FYR Macedonia
Luxembourg
Moldova
Kosovo
Malta
Liechtenstein
San Marino
Gibraltar


(Fun Fact: The Faroes will actually be in League C!)

So... things could get even more difficult, especially with the number of Euro teams virtually staying the same even with a 48 team World Cup.

 

[Abram Jones]

I wonder how often Australia or the US would qualify if they were in UEFA

USA, maybe once or twice... There are 18 European teams ahead of them in the ranks right now, so you could see it being possible on a good day: http://www.eloratings.net/ Australia may have a tougher time, I'm not sure what their highest ranking has ever been.

 

[Donnie Darko]

You have to win the group or its a playoff for 2nd place...
you dont have much margin for error .
For me the most laughable qualification is Concacaf ,where teams can lose about 5 games and still get through...

 

[WealstoneRaider]

You have to win the group or its a playoff for 2nd place...
you dont have much margin for error .
For me the most laughable qualification is Concacaf ,where teams can lose about 5 games and still get through...

Switzerland are currently eight out of eight for wins in their group. My bet is they lose to Portugal in Lisbon and will end up in the play offs where it will be tough for them. Abram is right, for your germanys, italys, spains and even England qualification is pretty straightforward most if not everytime. For everyone below perhaps 7 or 8 countries it's bloody difficult

 

[Cruyff14]

Semi-pro.

 

[Donnie Darko]

Switzerland are currently eight out of eight for wins in their group. My bet is they lose to Portugal in Lisbon and will end up in the play offs where it will be tough for them. Abram is right, for your germanys, italys, spains and even England qualification is pretty straightforward most if not everytime. For everyone below perhaps 7 or 8 countries it's bloody difficult

the playoffs look weak this time...
especially as UEFA will seed them to make sure the big guns dont play each other .

 

[sydney_gws]

the playoffs look weak this time...
especially as UEFA will seed them to make sure the big guns dont play each other .

I think europe deserve more spots. Australia qualified, and our players are not as accomplished as say Wales and Scotland, who are only about the 30th best European side.

 

[TubbsFarquhar]

I think europe deserve more spots. Australia qualified, and our players are not as accomplished as say Wales and Scotland, who are only about the 30th best European side.

UEFA have 14/32 spots next year (usually 13 but 1 extra because of Russia). This is the World Cup, not the Euros.

 

[CFC_JP]

It has to be one of the hardest confederates to qualify from. It is very hard to get even groups because it's based on FIFA rankings. You always get a couple of piss easy groups and a couple of group of deaths where a good team will invariably miss out. I think the number of spots is about right though. I wonder how often Australia or the US would qualify if they were in UEFA

When Australia were in Oceania and had to play either a European or South American team to qualify, everyone here was saying once we get to Asia, qualification will be pretty straight forward. Well we got through in the end but it wasn't straight forward. I think what is catching up with Australia now is that the golden generation before the A-League inception has gone and now all we have at our disposal is A-League developed players. Unfortunately the A-League model is not geared towards youth development. The NSL had plenty of issues but it produced some of the best home grown to ever wear the green and gold.
Don't know about the USA but Australia would struggle to beat any team in Europe bar your San Marinos so to answer your question ... never.