Current Disappearance of 3yo William Tyrrell * The foster mother has been recommended for charges of pervert the course of justice & interfere with a corpse

[Kurve]

Criminal charges the former foster parents currently face as at 15 April 2022 include:

• Apprehended Violence Orders on both (AVOs)
• Lying to the NSW Crime Commission on former foster mother *Not Guilty
• Lying to the NSW Crime Commission on former foster father *Not Guilty
• 2 x charges of assault against a child on former foster mother *Guilty
• 1 x charge of assault against a child on former foster father
• Stalking &/or Intimidation on both
• Dummy bidding real estate fraud *Guilty

TIMELINE

Where's William Tyrrell? - The Ch 10 podcast (under Coroner's subpoena)

Operation Arkstone

 

[31550]

But the 300klm trip can't be substantiated. CCTV suggests didn't occur.

Didn't occur with Porter in the car in that day. Maybe it didn't occur the same day, but could have occurred the next day, or even the day after that? Or maybe someone other than Porter drove and he took a route that avoided CCTV?

 

[Angry Red Bull]

Didn't occur with Porter in the car in that day. Maybe it didn't occur the same day, but could have occurred the next day, or even the day after that? Or maybe someone other than Porter drove and he took a route that avoided CCTV?

There were multiple CCTV sightings of the car the days after the disappearance. If RP had chronic kidney disease requiring dialysis that usually happens 3 times a week it's questionable he had time to drive anyone 300klm and return. The storyline is that he picked him and WT from shed behind school. If that is true it must have been on the day of abduction or not at all unless you think that FA hid him in shed for a few days before being collected. But that means he took WT not knowing if he could get a lift because FA didn't have a car. Very unlikely. It's possible that FA used the car and took him to his van but that means the story about the shed is nonsense which I think it is. I think the trip is a lie by FP to clear himself in relation to use of his car.

Maybe WT was taken to the shed tied gagged and kept there. Then the trip could happen later from the shed but the risk of detection would then be sky high

Was the shed in the immediate search area after disappearance?

 

[Lady O]

There were multiple CCTV sightings of the car the days after the disappearance. If RP had chronic kidney disease requiring dialysis that usually happens 3 times a week it's questionable he had time to drive anyone 300klm and return. The storyline is that he picked him and WT from shed behind school. If that is true it must have been on the day of abduction or not at all unless you think that FA hid him in shed for a few days before being collected. But that means he took WT not knowing if he could get a lift because FA didn't have a car. Very unlikely. It's possible that FA used the car and took him to his van but that means the story about the shed is nonsense which I think it is. I think the trip is a lie by FP to clear himself in relation to use of his car.

Maybe WT was taken to the shed tied gagged and kept there. Then the trip could happen later from the shed but the risk of detection would then be sky high

Was the shed in the immediate search area after disappearance?

It's just possible that the story told by RP was due to him suffering from delirium, due to his chronic illness, and the discussions he had about WT with others (perhaps even including FA) over a period of time. People can have difficulty at times sorting dreams from reality especially if they are on strong pain relief.

 

[31550]

It's just possible that the story told by RP was due to him suffering from delirium, due to his chronic illness, and the discussions he had about WT with others (perhaps even including FA) over a period of time. People can have difficulty at times sorting dreams from reality especially if they are on strong pain relief.

One would have to question Porter's motivation for making the statement. Nothing to gain and nothing to lose. There are other witnesses in this case who cannot remember anything about that day: Donohue, Owen, ... ? Others have very specific memories, or at least claim to (Chapman, FM). I guess everyone is different.

 

[CodyRose]

I don't think you can rule out any theories, but some are more likely than others.

No 1 would be "friendly" abduction - someone who knew where they were and waited till they could take him, so he would not be adopted by the fosters, and raise him in their own family.

No 2 abduction by neighbour or visitor to the neighbourhood.

No 3 accidental death and concealment of the body by FM.

No 4 opportunistic abduction.

We learned from Cleo Smith and similarly Greg Lynn that sometimes the truth is stranger than anything we can imagine.

I have wondering recently if the "abduction" wasn't part of another bigger play. There is so much ongoing suppression of information, secrets, involvement by powerful agencies like the crime commission and delays. Like everyone else I have run and re-run through many scenarios and none of them seem to fit. I have no suggestions of what a "bigger play" would be.

 

[Lady O]

I have wondering recently if the "abduction" wasn't part of another bigger play. There is so much ongoing suppression of information, secrets, involvement by powerful agencies like the crime commission and delays. Like everyone else I have run and re-run through many scenarios and none of them seem to fit. I have no suggestions of what a "bigger play" would be.

I haven't considered a "bigger play", not seriously.

However, there is still the possibility that he did wander off into the scrub, which is very thick around that area. I know it was searched but there is no way that every square inch was checked. I have also considered whether he could have fallen down an old well or bore hole or even a collapse of some underground tank (where there was no evidence of it on the surface), perhaps covered with rotten wood and/or vegetation that closed over it after he fell through.

There are endless possibilities.

 

[Angry Red Bull]

I haven't considered a "bigger play", not seriously.

However, there is still the possibility that he did wander off into the scrub, which is very thick around that area. I know it was searched but there is no way that every square inch was checked. I have also considered whether he could have fallen down an old well or bore hole or even a collapse of some underground tank (where there was no evidence of it on the surface), perhaps covered with rotten wood and/or vegetation that closed over it after he fell through.

There are endless possibilities.

No dog scent to follow implies he was taken off the property in a car. Sure maybe the dogs were confused by pollution of the trace but I consider it less likely than the alternative

 

[Angry Red Bull]

One would have to question Porter's motivation for making the statement. Nothing to gain and nothing to lose. There are other witnesses in this case who cannot remember anything about that day: Donohue, Owen, ... ? Others have very specific memories, or at least claim to (Chapman, FM). I guess everyone is different.

Lady O comment is valid. Perhaps delirious. But if RP wasn't then his intent must be construed as genuine. The only proviso is whether he lied to protect his greater role.

GO was able to recite where FA had commented about the smell of death but at same inquest was unable to say where he was the day of disappearance. Selective memory gives me major doubts. When questioned about the smell of death he responded that nothing surprised him about FA. Why then associate with him and offer him work??? Any right minded person would distance themselves from someone who knows the smell of death including the difference between humans and animals. WTF?

Chumley made comment that she suspects involvement of 3 people all of whom gave witness at the inquest. She then excluded Savage and Spedding from that list.

 

[31550]

Lady O comment is valid. Perhaps delirious. But if RP wasn't then his intent must be construed as genuine. The only proviso is whether he lied to protect his greater role.

GO was able to recite where FA had commented about the smell of death but at same inquest was unable to say where he was the day of disappearance. Selective memory gives me major doubts. When questioned about the smell of death he responded that nothing surprised him about FA. Why then associate with him and offer him work??? Any right minded person would distance themselves from someone who knows the smell of death including the difference between humans and animals. WTF?

Chumley made comment that she suspects involvement of 3 people all of whom gave witness at the inquest. She then excluded Savage and Spedding from that list.

RPs testimony can never be used. It's hearsay, was never written down or recorded. He never mentioned names, so there will always be doubt he was talking about FA and William. Police were interested in Porter at the time, but he said nothing to them (as far as we know). Whether it was delirium or not, it's an interesting thing to say, and way of saying it. Why not use names? Why tell the nurse and not police?

Chumley has now distanced herself from the hypotheses she put forward in her book but has not publicly provided reasons, or any alternative hypothesis. Certainly, Spedding and Savage would be excluded because they have already taken legal action against NSW police, and Chumley would not want similar action against herself.

When the coronial inquest was running, there were quite a number of closed hearings where the media and public were excluded. Clearly there are still suppression orders around a lot of the evidence and several attendees are protected by these.

But RP is dead, so if there was any evidence about his involvement it could be made public by now?

 

[Angry Red Bull]

RPs testimony can never be used. It's hearsay, was never written down or recorded. He never mentioned names, so there will always be doubt he was talking about FA and William. Police were interested in Porter at the time, but he said nothing to them (as far as we know). Whether it was delirium or not, it's an interesting thing to say, and way of saying it. Why not use names? Why tell the nurse and not police?

Chumley has now distanced herself from the hypotheses she put forward in her book but has not publicly provided reasons, or any alternative hypothesis. Certainly, Spedding and Savage would be excluded because they have already taken legal action against NSW police, and Chumley would not want similar action against herself.

When the coronial inquest was running, there were quite a number of closed hearings where the media and public were excluded. Clearly there are still suppression orders around a lot of the evidence and several attendees are protected by these.

But RP is dead, so if there was any evidence about his involvement it could be made public by now?

One exclusion to rules relating to hearsay evidence is deathbed confessions. It's no longer classified as hearsay. What RP said to the nurse would fit within this ambit and be available as evidence not hearsay. But the evidence lacks veracity because the 300klm trip hasn't been proven. I still think there may be shreds of truth to what RP has said about FA involvement. Multiple corroboration.

• deathbed confessions RP
• child scream heard in bushland around FA van
• RP car can match what FM saw parked that morning
• FA reference to GO about smell of death and bragging he knows location of WT body

None are conclusive but all are corroborations of sorts.

Chumley said RP picked FA and WT up from shed and drove them 300klm. RP was having dialysis which usually done 3 times a week so a 300 klm trip is unlikely. That's why Chumley has gone cold imo. They looked closely at FA and couldn't get evidence. Did they find evidence proving innocence. Don't know. if they have it hasn't been released.

 

[stormbird]

I found some information about traffic numbers in Kendall in 2017 - which is obviously not the year William went missing but maybe the numbers hadn't changed much in three years? I'm not sure what this information can add except that it helps fill out the picture of what was happening in the area that day:

From a traffic count on Thursday 22 June 2017 at the intersection of Batar Creek Road and Benaroon Drive
DA2017 - 736.1 Traffic Impact Assessment
(in a report by Port Macquarie-based company StreetWise for another company's development application, Proposed Residential Subdivision and Manufactured Housing Estate - Batar Creek Road, which was on the agenda for a meeting of the Development Assessment Panel of the Port Macquarie-Hastings Council on 28 November 2018):

3. Batar Creek Road & Benaroon Drive Intersection Assessment
see Table 3.1 Batar Benaroon AM/PM Peak Hour Traffic flows

Time Period: 8:15 am to 9:15 am
Batar Creek Road - northbound: 21 total (20 light* vehicles, 1 heavy* vehicles) *see classification below
Batar Creek Road - southbound: 20 total (18 light, 2 heavy)
Benaroon Drive to Batar Creek Road: 14 total (10 light, 4 heavy)
Total: 55 vehicles

Time Period: 4:30 pm to 5:30 pm
Batar Creek Road - northbound: 13 total (13 light, 0 heavy)
Batar Creek Road - southbound: 37 total (37 light, 0 heavy)
Benaroon Drive to Batar Creek Road: 5 total (5 light, 0 heavy)
Total: 55 vehicles

* ... "the classification of heavy vehicles was confined to primarily local buses of class 3 vehicle classification with most of the traffic being class 1 (Sedan, 4WD, Light van) with a small number of class 2 (Car and trailer)."
- 3.2 Traffic Count Comments

Figure 3.1 Existing Traffic movements AM & PM peak period
shows that:

• from Benaroon Drive to Batar Creek Road, no vehicles turned to the south, all turned to the north
• in the morning, of the 21 vehicles travelling north along Batar Creek Road, 2 turned into Benaroon Drive; of the 20 travelling south along Batar Creek Road, 10 turned into Benaroon Drive
• in the afternoon, of the 13 vehicles travelling north along Batar Creek Road, 0 turned into Benaroon Drive; of the 37 travelling south along Batar Creek Road, 11 turned into Benaroon Drive

And also, in relation to Graham Street (the road in Kendall that runs past the 2014 location of the tennis club CCTV camera):

9. Existing Railway Crossing - Graham Street
9.2 Existing Queuing at Crossing [2017]
... "the existing rail crossing of the North Coast Rail Line at Kendall is located on Graham Street, which connects directly with Kendall Road, which is the main route between Kendall and Laurieton (via the Pacific Hwy interchange at Kew). The flashing lights at the crossing currently require vehicles to stop and wait for trains to pass before continuing west into Graham Street or east on River Street. There are no viable alternative routes to avoid the existing crossing.
Currently, at peak times, a 2-minute stoppage can result in a maxiumum queue of 10 vehicles (at an average 5 cars per minute). However, during StreetWise inspections, the queues were observed to be 2 - 3 vehicles only."

and:
9.1 Existing Operations [2017]
"The single rail-line through Kendall caters for approximately 10 trains per day - 6 XPT passenger trains and around 4 freight trains. The XPT currently travels north to Brisbane at 1:30pm, 6:10pm & 8:50pm, while the southbound XPT passes through Kendall at 9:05am, 1:55pm and 12:45am.
Existing traffic volumes on River Street/Graham Street are approximately 4000 vehicles per day. StreetWise observations indicate waiting times at the crossing varies generally between 2 - 5 minutes, depending on the speed and length of the train."

 

[Angry Red Bull]

I found some information about traffic numbers in Kendall in 2017 - which is obviously not the year William went missing but maybe the numbers hadn't changed much in three years? I'm not sure what this information can add except that it helps fill out the picture of what was happening in the area that day:

From a traffic count on Thursday 22 June 2017 at the intersection of Batar Creek Road and Benaroon Drive
DA2017 - 736.1 Traffic Impact Assessment
(in a report by Port Macquarie-based company StreetWise for another company's development application, Proposed Residential Subdivision and Manufactured Housing Estate - Batar Creek Road, which was on the agenda for a meeting of the Development Assessment Panel of the Port Macquarie-Hastings Council on 28 November 2018):

3. Batar Creek Road & Benaroon Drive Intersection Assessment
see Table 3.1 Batar Benaroon AM/PM Peak Hour Traffic flows

Time Period: 8:15 am to 9:15 am
Batar Creek Road - northbound: 21 total (20 light* vehicles, 1 heavy* vehicles) *see classification below
Batar Creek Road - southbound: 20 total (18 light, 2 heavy)
Benaroon Drive to Batar Creek Road: 14 total (10 light, 4 heavy)
Total: 55 vehicles

Time Period: 4:30 pm to 5:30 pm
Batar Creek Road - northbound: 13 total (13 light, 0 heavy)
Batar Creek Road - southbound: 37 total (37 light, 0 heavy)
Benaroon Drive to Batar Creek Road: 5 total (5 light, 0 heavy)
Total: 55 vehicles

* ... "the classification of heavy vehicles was confined to primarily local buses of class 3 vehicle classification with most of the traffic being class 1 (Sedan, 4WD, Light van) with a small number of class 2 (Car and trailer)."
- 3.2 Traffic Count Comments

Figure 3.1 Existing Traffic movements AM & PM peak period
shows that:

• from Benaroon Drive to Batar Creek Road, no vehicles turned to the south, all turned to the north
• in the morning, of the 21 vehicles travelling north along Batar Creek Road, 2 turned into Benaroon Drive; of the 20 travelling south along Batar Creek Road, 10 turned into Benaroon Drive
• in the afternoon, of the 13 vehicles travelling north along Batar Creek Road, 0 turned into Benaroon Drive; of the 37 travelling south along Batar Creek Road, 11 turned into Benaroon Drive

And also, in relation to Graham Street (the road in Kendall that runs past the 2014 location of the tennis club CCTV camera):

9. Existing Railway Crossing - Graham Street
9.2 Existing Queuing at Crossing [2017]
... "the existing rail crossing of the North Coast Rail Line at Kendall is located on Graham Street, which connects directly with Kendall Road, which is the main route between Kendall and Laurieton (via the Pacific Hwy interchange at Kew). The flashing lights at the crossing currently require vehicles to stop and wait for trains to pass before continuing west into Graham Street or east on River Street. There are no viable alternative routes to avoid the existing crossing.
Currently, at peak times, a 2-minute stoppage can result in a maxiumum queue of 10 vehicles (at an average 5 cars per minute). However, during StreetWise inspections, the queues were observed to be 2 - 3 vehicles only."

and:
9.1 Existing Operations [2017]
"The single rail-line through Kendall caters for approximately 10 trains per day - 6 XPT passenger trains and around 4 freight trains. The XPT currently travels north to Brisbane at 1:30pm, 6:10pm & 8:50pm, while the southbound XPT passes through Kendall at 9:05am, 1:55pm and 12:45am.
Existing traffic volumes on River Street/Graham Street are approximately 4000 vehicles per day. StreetWise observations indicate waiting times at the crossing varies generally between 2 - 5 minutes, depending on the speed and length of the train."

This seems to confirm that the only vehicles going in and out of Benaroon drive are those that live there.....a total of 19 vehicles over two hours (one hr in morning and one hr in afternoon). A vehicle every 61/2 minutes.

If we are to believe FM the time available for an opportunist abduction was a couple of minutes.

How long does it take to carry a child 70 metres? I'll hazard a guess and say 1 minute. How does a single adult subdue a child placing them in an unlocked car to then lock and drive. away. Would WT complain/ scream?

 

[stormbird]

This seems to confirm that the only vehicles going in and out of Benaroon drive are those that live there.....a total of 19 vehicles over two hours (one hr in morning and one hr in afternoon). A vehicle every 61/2 minutes.

If we are to believe FM the time available for an opportunist abduction was a couple of minutes.

How long does it take to carry a child 70 metres? I'll hazard a guess and say 1 minute. How does a single adult subdue a child placing them in an unlocked car to then lock and drive. away. Would WT complain/ scream?

Angry Red Bull, you mentioned the 19 vehicles going out of Benaroon Drive (14 in the morning and 5 in the afternoon), but also there were 23 going in (12 in the morning and 11 in the afternoon). Even if there was just one hyperactive vehicle counted 19 or 23 times - driving in and out, in and out - what matters for me is that there was a lot more movement in the streets than I'd imagined, at least during peak hours, at least on that one day. I'm really surprised there was almost one vehicle per minute on Batar Creek Road.

 

[31550]

8:15 to 9:15am is a bit of a 'peak' period though, with school and pre-school drop-offs, people going to, or being dropped off at work, regular deliveries being made, and tradesman commencing daily jobs.

I would expect activity to drop off after this period though. (e.g. when William left Benaroon Drive).

 

[Angry Red Bull]

I found some information about traffic numbers in Kendall in 2017 - which is obviously not the year William went missing but maybe the numbers hadn't changed much in three years? I'm not sure what this information can add except that it helps fill out the picture of what was happening in the area that day:

From a traffic count on Thursday 22 June 2017 at the intersection of Batar Creek Road and Benaroon Drive
DA2017 - 736.1 Traffic Impact Assessment
(in a report by Port Macquarie-based company StreetWise for another company's development application, Proposed Residential Subdivision and Manufactured Housing Estate - Batar Creek Road, which was on the agenda for a meeting of the Development Assessment Panel of the Port Macquarie-Hastings Council on 28 November 2018):

3. Batar Creek Road & Benaroon Drive Intersection Assessment
see Table 3.1 Batar Benaroon AM/PM Peak Hour Traffic flows

Time Period: 8:15 am to 9:15 am
Batar Creek Road - northbound: 21 total (20 light* vehicles, 1 heavy* vehicles) *see classification below
Batar Creek Road - southbound: 20 total (18 light, 2 heavy)
Benaroon Drive to Batar Creek Road: 14 total (10 light, 4 heavy)
Total: 55 vehicles

Time Period: 4:30 pm to 5:30 pm
Batar Creek Road - northbound: 13 total (13 light, 0 heavy)
Batar Creek Road - southbound: 37 total (37 light, 0 heavy)
Benaroon Drive to Batar Creek Road: 5 total (5 light, 0 heavy)
Total: 55 vehicles

* ... "the classification of heavy vehicles was confined to primarily local buses of class 3 vehicle classification with most of the traffic being class 1 (Sedan, 4WD, Light van) with a small number of class 2 (Car and trailer)."
- 3.2 Traffic Count Comments

Figure 3.1 Existing Traffic movements AM & PM peak period
shows that:

• from Benaroon Drive to Batar Creek Road, no vehicles turned to the south, all turned to the north
• in the morning, of the 21 vehicles travelling north along Batar Creek Road, 2 turned into Benaroon Drive; of the 20 travelling south along Batar Creek Road, 10 turned into Benaroon Drive
• in the afternoon, of the 13 vehicles travelling north along Batar Creek Road, 0 turned into Benaroon Drive; of the 37 travelling south along Batar Creek Road, 11 turned into Benaroon Drive

And also, in relation to Graham Street (the road in Kendall that runs past the 2014 location of the tennis club CCTV camera):

9. Existing Railway Crossing - Graham Street
9.2 Existing Queuing at Crossing [2017]
... "the existing rail crossing of the North Coast Rail Line at Kendall is located on Graham Street, which connects directly with Kendall Road, which is the main route between Kendall and Laurieton (via the Pacific Hwy interchange at Kew). The flashing lights at the crossing currently require vehicles to stop and wait for trains to pass before continuing west into Graham Street or east on River Street. There are no viable alternative routes to avoid the existing crossing.
Currently, at peak times, a 2-minute stoppage can result in a maxiumum queue of 10 vehicles (at an average 5 cars per minute). However, during StreetWise inspections, the queues were observed to be 2 - 3 vehicles only."

and:
9.1 Existing Operations [2017]
"The single rail-line through Kendall caters for approximately 10 trains per day - 6 XPT passenger trains and around 4 freight trains. The XPT currently travels north to Brisbane at 1:30pm, 6:10pm & 8:50pm, while the southbound XPT passes through Kendall at 9:05am, 1:55pm and 12:45am.
Existing traffic volumes on River Street/Graham Street are approximately 4000 vehicles per day. StreetWise observations indicate waiting times at the crossing varies generally between 2 - 5 minutes, depending on the speed and length of the train."

The morning hour there were 4 buses exit of a total of 14 vehicles..You would expect the number to decline after 9.15am but still interesting to see

 

[stormbird]

8:15 to 9:15am is a bit of a 'peak' period though, with school and pre-school drop-offs, people going to, or being dropped off at work, regular deliveries being made, and tradesman commencing daily jobs.

I would expect activity to drop off after this period though. (e.g. when William left Benaroon Drive).

I hope everybody would expect activity to drop off after this (peak) period.

A better criticism would be that a one-day study of traffic on a Thursday in winter 2017 might tell us nothing at all about what was happening with the traffic on a Friday in the spring of 2014 when William disappeared three years earlier.

Another criticism would be that it makes no difference how many people were driving around. The numbers don't tell us whether any potential witnesses were paying attention to their surroundings and cared enough to remember and report.

 

[stormbird]

The morning hour there were 4 buses exit of a total of 14 vehicles..You would expect the number to decline after 9.15am but still interesting to see

It seems weird to me that there could be 4 buses. That's the way it looks in the report, I agree, but I wonder if they were counting 2 buses both in and out?

The timetable from 03 November 2014 for Bus Number 1 to Kendall Public School (Wayback Machine capture 26 March 2015)
showed that the afternoon bus heading south along Batar Creek Road would turn into Benaroon Drive and turn around at Ellendale Crescent, I'm guessing so that it could line up the bus door with the bus shelter on Benaroon Drive and the kids wouldn't have to exit on the other side of Batar Creek Road. The timetable doesn't say the bus turned around in the mornings too, but I suppose it would make sense if it did.

I haven't looked for any other timetables so I don't know how many other buses there might have been from Batar Creek. But 4? That seems like a lot.

 

[Angry Red Bull]

It seems weird to me that there could be 4 buses. That's the way it looks in the report, I agree, but I wonder if they were counting 2 buses both in and out?

The timetable from 03 November 2014 for Bus Number 1 to Kendall Public School (Wayback Machine capture 26 March 2015)
showed that the afternoon bus heading south along Batar Creek Road would turn into Benaroon Drive and turn around at Ellendale Crescent, I'm guessing so that it could line up the bus door with the bus shelter on Benaroon Drive and the kids wouldn't have to exit on the other side of Batar Creek Road. The timetable doesn't say the bus turned around in the mornings too, but I suppose it would make sense if it did.

I haven't looked for any other timetables so I don't know how many other buses there might have been from Batar Creek. But 4? That seems like a lot.

I thought the same thing.

I hear what you say about entries to Beneroon too. You are right of course.

I'm thinking there are two aspects to cars. Frequency of car visits overall and numbers of people. Because it's a dead end I only looked at exits because if you counted entries too it would distort the people count because of double counting. Of course frequency is also important and that doesn't concern itself with double counting just how many cars entered or exited and the time then between those cars. That's your figure which aids us gauging likely detection in case of abduction or hiding a body

 

[Angry Red Bull]

With your frequency calculation of one every 1/1/2 mins you could then extrapolate how many cars reached the house and beyond. Because of distractions to Ellendale and the early residences I'm thinking perhaps 20% make it to or past their house. That means 5 x 11/2min = 7 1/2 mins. A car may have past their house that morning once every 7/1/2 mins. If a car/ person wanted to abduct they would have 7/12 mins before another car came past. That's possible without being seen but you'd have to be lucky being timed coincidentally on the perimeter to car passes and opportunity. Of course frequency would be random not regular too. Even worse on Betar Cr rd stashing a body in shallow grave somewhere. There were 41 vehicles pass Beneroon on Batar Cr Rd in that 1 hour morning .One every 1/12 min. A burial even a shallow one would take 10 mins at minimum more likely 15 min. Would be seen. it also casts doubt on accidental death too. At least two cars would have past by the house during the aftermath of a fall from a balcony as example. Neighbours tend to be nosy. They would have suspected with their own eyes especially when the alert went up.

This data at the exact hour would have been very useful for police to work probabilities of certain potential explanations.

The conclusions I draw are:

* Unlikely accidental death because cars would pass and see aftermath.

* Negligible to zero chance of a shallow grave on Batar Cr Rd without detection. Didn't happen imo.

* A random abduction is possible. But if you were waiting for opportunity then the time sitting in car would make it obvious to cars passing. No one apart from FM saw cars.

If WT had been driven to Batar Cr Rd and left there the opportunity would be higher of abduction but criticism of that suggestion is that there is low probability that a pedophile passing at that exact moment WT left unattended. If multiple cars pass by but didn't collect him at least someone would have come forward to say that they saw a spiderman boy unattended on Batar Cr Rd. No such report was made.

Conclusions

Much more likely WT was taken away alive than hidden dead. Planned abduction more likely than opportunist. If it was opportunist he would need to have been in the street waiting for a reason. Eg A FA type waiting to do deck dismantle that morning. If it were planned eg bio extended family someone was driving and a second person waited in vicinity of the back of house for WT to come around corner. The last growl. Rush back to car to return to parked car on Batar Cr Rd then two cars seen by RC


I find it inexplicable that GO has no memory where he was that morning. He rang to arrange deck just after 9 but can't remember yet he can remember that FA said where smell of death was. Was he arranging it that morning and had FA sitting in RPs car waiting and ready to dismantle upon being given go ahead by GO? No longer random opportunist then. RP confession, GO selective memory loss , FA bragging about smell and WT body whereabouts, the boys scream in bushland next day, FA doing work for GO ALL intersect to one possible explanation. I don't know why police have gone cold on FA. From my perspective absent evidence of which I'm unaware FA must remain a POI. FA had said "they should check GO property" imo that is a subtle way of FA threatening GO to shut up about what he knew. GO likely knows the purpose of his call that morning and that purpose is possibly to let FGM know he would send a worker there that morning to dismantle deck. That person was possibly FA.

 

[31550]

It would be very unusual for someone to drive into Benaroon Drive without a pre-determined reason.

I don't know how the minds of predators work, but I don't imagine they drive around randomly all day to remote locations. If they are actively looking for victims, I imagine they would stake out a 'likely' location at an opportune time of day : e.g. a bus stop when they know the bus is due. William's case was not a likely location or an opportune time of day, unless the perpetrator had advance knowledge of William's whereabouts.

But I also think that opportunistic abductors might be 'triggered' by chancing upon a victim in a vulnerable situation - e.g. a child wandering alone.

We know that GO is connected to FGM and the property. We know a call was made from his phone. We know there is a work connection between FA and GO. We know FA has been allegedly connected to another opportunistic abduction. Then there is all the circumstantial evidence of strange behaviour, sounds and smells. Neither FA nor GO have watertight alibis.

From the traffic analysis, it's quite possible that a potential opportunistic predator could drive into Benaroon Drive (perhaps on his way to look at the property with a view to planning starting work on the deck, or delivering materials?) - see William playing on his own near the street, or waiting for his FF to come home. Within a few minutes (or less), William could be snatched and driven off with nobody noticing - houses do not have a clear view of the street - cars are heard occasionally but neighbours don't witness all comings and goings. This might have happened while FM was making tea, or interacting with FGM and William's sister, or searching inside the house. It may have even happened while FM took her drive to the riding school?

IMO the opportunistic scenario is possible, but it doesn't fit with FMs insistence that William was not out of her sight for long, and that she didn't hear or see anything.

It seems that until Nov 2021, the police were pursuing this theory, and that towards the end of the coronial inquest there were a number of new suppression orders and 'closed court' hearings suggesting this was playing out. Chumley's book was withdrawn from sale, and the CH7 doco implicating RP, FA and GO was pulled from circulation. Why?

From Nov 2021, police named FM as POI, and seemed to go down a completely different path; the 'accident' theory. It's as though they had evidence which exonerated the other POIs.

IMO the 'accident' theory is also possible, but, as ARB says, there was not enough time to conceal the body. So this theory only works if a third party removed William's body from its interim hiding place. And FM insists there was no accident and she never moved William in the first place.

 

[Lady O]

It would be very unusual for someone to drive into Benaroon Drive without a pre-determined reason.

I don't know how the minds of predators work, but I don't imagine they drive around randomly all day to remote locations. If they are actively looking for victims, I imagine they would stake out a 'likely' location at an opportune time of day : e.g. a bus stop when they know the bus is due. William's case was not a likely location or an opportune time of day, unless the perpetrator had advance knowledge of William's whereabouts.

But I also think that opportunistic abductors might be 'triggered' by chancing upon a victim in a vulnerable situation - e.g. a child wandering alone.

We know that GO is connected to FGM and the property. We know a call was made from his phone. We know there is a work connection between FA and GO. We know FA has been allegedly connected to another opportunistic abduction. Then there is all the circumstantial evidence of strange behaviour, sounds and smells. Neither FA nor GO have watertight alibis.

From the traffic analysis, it's quite possible that a potential opportunistic predator could drive into Benaroon Drive (perhaps on his way to look at the property with a view to planning starting work on the deck, or delivering materials?) - see William playing on his own near the street, or waiting for his FF to come home. Within a few minutes (or less), William could be snatched and driven off with nobody noticing - houses do not have a clear view of the street - cars are heard occasionally but neighbours don't witness all comings and goings. This might have happened while FM was making tea, or interacting with FGM and William's sister, or searching inside the house. It may have even happened while FM took her drive to the riding school?

IMO the opportunistic scenario is possible, but it doesn't fit with FMs insistence that William was not out of her sight for long, and that she didn't hear or see anything.

It seems that until Nov 2021, the police were pursuing this theory, and that towards the end of the coronial inquest there were a number of new suppression orders and 'closed court' hearings suggesting this was playing out. Chumley's book was withdrawn from sale, and the CH7 doco implicating RP, FA and GO was pulled from circulation. Why?

From Nov 2021, police named FM as POI, and seemed to go down a completely different path; the 'accident' theory. It's as though they had evidence which exonerated the other POIs.

IMO the 'accident' theory is also possible, but, as ARB says, there was not enough time to conceal the body. So this theory only works if a third party removed William's body from its interim hiding place. And FM insists there was no accident and she never moved William in the first place.

The block of land across the road from FGM was for sale at the time, I believe. Maybe some people would have a reason to go down that end of the street.

 

[Angry Red Bull]

It would be very unusual for someone to drive into Benaroon Drive without a pre-determined reason.

I don't know how the minds of predators work, but I don't imagine they drive around randomly all day to remote locations. If they are actively looking for victims, I imagine they would stake out a 'likely' location at an opportune time of day : e.g. a bus stop when they know the bus is due. William's case was not a likely location or an opportune time of day, unless the perpetrator had advance knowledge of William's whereabouts.

But I also think that opportunistic abductors might be 'triggered' by chancing upon a victim in a vulnerable situation - e.g. a child wandering alone.

We know that GO is connected to FGM and the property. We know a call was made from his phone. We know there is a work connection between FA and GO. We know FA has been allegedly connected to another opportunistic abduction. Then there is all the circumstantial evidence of strange behaviour, sounds and smells. Neither FA nor GO have watertight alibis.

From the traffic analysis, it's quite possible that a potential opportunistic predator could drive into Benaroon Drive (perhaps on his way to look at the property with a view to planning starting work on the deck, or delivering materials?) - see William playing on his own near the street, or waiting for his FF to come home. Within a few minutes (or less), William could be snatched and driven off with nobody noticing - houses do not have a clear view of the street - cars are heard occasionally but neighbours don't witness all comings and goings. This might have happened while FM was making tea, or interacting with FGM and William's sister, or searching inside the house. It may have even happened while FM took her drive to the riding school?

IMO the opportunistic scenario is possible, but it doesn't fit with FMs insistence that William was not out of her sight for long, and that she didn't hear or see anything.

It seems that until Nov 2021, the police were pursuing this theory, and that towards the end of the coronial inquest there were a number of new suppression orders and 'closed court' hearings suggesting this was playing out. Chumley's book was withdrawn from sale, and the CH7 doco implicating RP, FA and GO was pulled from circulation. Why?

From Nov 2021, police named FM as POI, and seemed to go down a completely different path; the 'accident' theory. It's as though they had evidence which exonerated the other POIs.

IMO the 'accident' theory is also possible, but, as ARB says, there was not enough time to conceal the body. So this theory only works if a third party removed William's body from its interim hiding place. And FM insists there was no accident and she never moved William in the first place.

Almost from the start I had belief that both FPs were fabricating a story. What I didn't understand but now do was that they were trying to conceal poor parenting. I believe it entirely possible that FM said it was only a few minutes to hide a truth of poor parenting that it was perhaps 8-10 minutes. She wanted to distract attention away from her parenting ability. What I know is that a dysfunctional parent gets respite when away from the responsibility so there would have been a motivation for that too. Leave him to play for a time to get respite. I have little doubt she underestimated

 

[Kurve]

Almost from the start I had belief that both FPs were fabricating a story. What I didn't understand but now do was that they were trying to conceal poor parenting. I believe it entirely possible that FM said it was only a few minutes to hide a truth of poor parenting that it was perhaps 8-10 minutes. She wanted to distract attention away from her parenting ability. What I know is that a dysfunctional parent gets respite when away from the responsibility so there would have been a motivation for that too. Leave him to play for a time to get respite. I have little doubt she underestimated

Yeah I think they've lied or manipulated the facts.

What drew me more to a balcony fall was when the FM made effort to say William was afraid of going too high in a tree and said 'too high mummy, too high', as if she was aware the height from the balcony was a problem, the two of them shouldn't have been playing on it as too dangerous, we know they had been. And it's deceptive, entering from the backyard at ground level to the end of the balcony where the drop off is over ten metres. A kid could just keep running from ground level, reaching the end of the balcony within seconds and climb straight over the rails expecting to find the ground under the bottom rail, same as when they jumped on to the balcony in the backyard.

If an opportunistic predator, I don't think it could be completely random. There were several primary school children living on Benaroon Drive, maybe someone had been casing the street with another target in mind and they just happened to stumble over William on the day ... seems unlikely but I hope all the neighbours with kids were questioned about any unusual activity, things going missing etc. Nobody would just drive up that street for absolutely no reason.

 

[Kurve]

When a child falls from a balcony as this four year old did, a crime scene is established.

https://www.news.com.au/national/nsw-act/news/child-in-hospital-after-falling-from-balcony-in-holroyd/news-story/ef77fc0c48d7898eca587fdde1441cd3

 

[Kurve]

Balcony falls are more common than random child abductions where they're never seen again. This little kid fell from three floors and sadly died. The fall from the end of the Benaroon Drive balcony would be almost a third floor drop in reality, more than two.