Do We Want To Make Finals?

[The Donners]

it is incredibly uncommon for a club to come from the bottom four halfway through the season and make the finals. in fact i can't think of it ever happening.

It is very uncommon, Brisbane Bears 1995 under Robert Walls. They were 14th after round 16 with 5 wins and finished with 10 wins and 8th position on the ladder.

I would suggest Essendon will need 11 wins. We have to win 6 of the following 8 games: Brisbane (Dome), Richmond (MCG), Collingwood (MCG), Melbourne (MCG), WCE (Subiaco), Adelaide (Dome), WB (Dome) and St. Kilda (Dome). The only team I don't rate our chances against are the Western Bulldogs.

Do people agree with me? Could we finish with 12 wins, 10 losses and in the top 8?

 

[retroparty]

A little confidence goes a long way...

The AFL is an even competition and anyone can make the fnals with a bit of confidence and fight.

We probably won't make the finals but it is still mathematically possible so we need to try as hard as we can until it isn't possible anymore.

 

[Walesy]

BUT - If that doesn't happen and we were able to sneak into 8th, the ladder right now would have us playing Adelaide. A team we lost to by less than a goal, if we had the momentum and the form to win enough games to get there, you'd have to give us a chance.

Then we'd cop a smashing by Sydney or Hawthorn in the second week of the finals (although I'd give us a sniff against the Dogs).

Pipe dream though.

That's the ticket. If we did sneak into 8th, it would be Adelaide. could easily be a Brisbane though.

I think if we did manage to make it into 8th, between our form alone (I mean, we're gunna want 7 of our next 8 games considering our percentage) would be enough to make us a contender.

(I'm gunna pencil in a loss to the doggies - so we'll have beaten Collingwood, Brisbane, St. K, Adelaide)

Streaking home with 10 out of the last 11 games would be huge! possibly even beat Sydney in round 2 of the finals kind of momentum huge.



/optimism.

it is nice to dream though. and I would way prefer that to finishing the season a lazy 12th.

Actually, who the heck would prefer us to *not* win 10 of the last 11 games of the season? what, for draft picks? pfffffft.

go dons!

 

[S.C[BANKS]]

Carlton...

Thats what happens when you tank...

This is how it happens:

3 Seasons of not trying to win a game, to obtain high draft picks.
1 Season of trying to make finals once you have obtained your future stars.
Then 1 more season to make you realise that your team is still horse shite.
Then you lose all your supporters respect for the team.
The team then throws cash around to try and obtain a high AFL profiled player in a trade.
The team Drafts another top prospect in the draft.
The fans get excited about the new players and purchase memberships.
They have one big (lucky) win for the season, get prospected to be in the finals race.
Get absolutly shut down. (By us!)

And After all that, they're still horse shite.

Great post. Great line.

 

[Lehban]

We want to finish as high as we possibly can,

____ the draft picks.

100 % agree you cant buy finals experince it, finals producers better players imho

 

[Pevers-Legend]

given our list -if we make finals doesn;t it mean we are starting to put it together and we are obviusly on the up and have the list.

Of course we won't make finals - but dreaming is nice sometimes.

 

[smcateer]

If a team has any chance of winning a flag, losing has to be regarded as absolutely unacceptable under all circumstances. If we had finished first in 06 and 07 the only players we would not have had the opportunity to have picked are Gumby and Myers. While these are promising players to be sure, they are not what I get excited about when I look at our list - for me it's Jetta, Davey, Reimers, Houli, Neagle, Lonergan (heart palpitating now). We could have still picked all of them.

By finishing at the bottom you pick up a couple of players who may or may not turn out to be the real deal (with Bill McNeil), and you also get one non-returnable LOSING CULTURE. A losing culture which can break any first round draft pick's spirit.

BTW I want us to win every game we play in, and that includes the next 8 + 4 games.

 

[Big Blow Hard]

We won't so it doesn't matter.

But to answer the question, it doesn't matter either way.

Honestly, the lowest I think we could finish this year is 13th, and probably ending up with picks 4, 24, 40 etc if the bottom 3 all have less than 5 wins

If we make the 8, we'll probably have pick 9, 29, 45 etc

So I guess considering the big hole that the Gold Coast will put in the draft starting next season and then West Sydney the year after, earlier picks this year would be handy.



quote

I think too much fuss is being made about the Gold Coast side taking the best picks. If we have not gotten together the best part of a team that is going to challenge in a couple of years time, then we don't deserve to get the early picks.

 

[The_Young_Gun]

Its not all downhill stuff when dealing with draft picks and the goldcoast team taking control of the draft in years to come.

Like in 1994, how we traded to Freo for draft picks and it landed us Scotty Lucas with the no.4 pick.

If we are desperate enough to need those top 10 draft picks then we can as easily trade un-wanted (eg.Johns, Laycock.ect) or un-needed players (eg. Pevrill, JJ.ect) and get some draft picks out of them, even though those examples are probably 1 in a million chances of happening but I hope you get my point that if there is a one in a kind player that would just fit perfectly in your side, then we can just as easily trade for the appropriate pick to get him...

I don't strongly advise trading away players, but if it can land us guys like Lucas, I'd at least take some chance of it.

 

[Bombers 4 premiership]

High draft picks are good, but are very overrated.

 

[Moore14]

Nah we don't wanna make finals we just wana sit back and watch the other teams go for glory.

 

[IsDonIsGood]

Carlton...

Thats what happens when you tank...

This is how it happens:

3 Seasons of not trying to win a game, to obtain high draft picks.
1 Season of trying to make finals once you have obtained your future stars.
Then 1 more season to make you realise that your team is still horse shite.
Then you lose all your supporters respect for the team.
The team then throws cash around to try and obtain a high AFL profiled player in a trade.
The team Drafts another top prospect in the draft.
The fans get excited about the new players and purchase memberships.
They have one big (lucky) win for the season, get prospected to be in the finals race.
Get absolutly shut down. (By us!)

And After all that, they're still horse shite.

Pure gold!

God i hate those bastards! Even if we don't make the finals, it gives me solice to know that we kicked these guys in the face right when they were starting to believe.

 

[eth-dog]

I think we do want to, give My Store Myers etc. some experience, and then make a chargein the next 2-3 years

 

[Gerbil]

Realistically I think we are at least 3 years probably 4 from being a successful side. But making the finals or thereabouts is definetly a step in the right direction, while there is a chance that finishing lower and getting higher draft picks may work in favour of our list, there is no guarantee.

In My Opinion the risk is not worth the reward.

Silly question.

 

[Don5]

With a percentage of 78% it will be tough to think of us making finals, but I hope we can finish the season off on a high! It would help the boys confidence over the summer for a beta crack in 09.

 

[FandangoDingo]

Pure gold!

God i hate those bastards! Even if we don't make the finals, it gives me solice to know that we kicked these guys in the face right when they were starting to believe.

Exactly!! Beautiful, isn't it?!!!!