DT 2011 Forwards Thread

[Ess_don]

Glad we are discussing Sylvia, as I too had my doubts about him over the preseason.. I guess everyone likes the fact that he will be starting in the middle every game and be a goal-kicking mid.

Unlike Goodes, who may have to play deep forward for a few weeks until Bradshaw comes back (although have been scoring well in that position in the NAB and in the past).
Also, most forwards are usually reliant on their midfield for good supply, ie: bag of goals for their 100+ scores. While hopefully Sylvia can still score a ton more consistently by possessions around the ground and maybe snag 1-2goals for his 100+.

Another plus for Sylvia is that he shouldnt miss any league games (of course not counting injuries) add to that the great reports of his PS and a freakish injury setting him back last year (infected toe, wont affect him this year) sounds like a solid pickup.

However you do raise a good point about being in a stronger side, as Sydney should easily place higher than Dees..

On the tagging matter, Goodes will also have a "heavy tag" equivalent playing as a fwd as he will always have a defender close by.

Sorry for the rambling, but cannot decide out of these two players!

 

[Benno_900]

Also look where the 100+ scorers come from, TOP 8 TEAMS?? yes. In fact 18/19 players IIRC in 2009 that avg above 100 were from top 9 teams. Yep thats right.

Were Sydney and Freo in your top 8 last preseason, Nostradamus?

 

[pillager]

Were Sydney and Freo in your top 8 last preseason, Nostradamus?

Dung Well Done analyses his own faeces to predict the future, a little bit like reading tea leaves.

However, the technique is a little unreliable after he has ingested some curry or chilli.

 

[Joshen]

Williams isn't that bad and Morris did play on him too. Williams won his fair share of contests too but Petrie obviously had the better of him according to reports. He didn't really have the forward line to himself either, Thomas did kick 6 goals.

Sorry just to clarify, what I'm saying is that Lake would have done a better job shutting down Petrie than Williams and Morris and I meant Petrie was the lone tall forward in future less I50's would be directed at him with Hansen coming into the team.

 

[Wheedus]

And I'm not saying pick Petrie just to keep him as 3rd ruck. You'll need him to cover Cox or Sandilands (or both) in rounds 5 and 6 - after that, you could just downgrade a forward rookie who has made some cash to a R/F rookie (your new 4th ruck) and switch Petrie to the forwards. He is now covering both positions and will be used regularly with all the byes. Better to have 70-80 scores covering than <60 scores from your other ruck/fwd rookies. If you think the extra 100K on the bench is going to cripple your season for the first 4 rounds - despite the fact you'll have much more than that missing almost every week through byes - then don't pick him.

Spot on. I think a lot of people are just assuming you lock in your rucks and they'll both play 22. Very risky assumption. You may need to cover more than just the byes if one or both of them has a week or two out with injury. I'd want a decent back up rather than a rookie likely to score 40.

At the moment I've got Petrie starting on the ruck and will follow the 54 Dogs plan from there.

Worth spending the $200K as insurance.

 

[Dunn - Well Done]

Dung Well Done analyses his own faeces to predict the future, a little bit like reading tea leaves.

However, the technique is a little unreliable after he has ingested some curry or chilli.

This post compared to mine?? You offer so much to this forum mate.

Im pretty sure i had Sydney in the top 8 or around 8th i cant remember that far back. Sure there are teams that we will always get wrong. But you have to go with your gut instinct and if that is melbourne wont improve or make the 8 than picking players from there side priced at 96 who avg play 16 games a year isnt that great an idea.

Sylvia has gotten under the radar in the fact that he has been put in many teams because he is young, improving and a better player than his DT scores show. However no one has written much about him yet and the disucssion i brought up can only make people question whether he is a good pick? I do not for the above reasons.

Sylvia and Davey will be both shut out of the games IMO by serious tags. IMO Sylvia has a greater impact but Davey is easier to stop, because he gets alot of handball receives and sets up play. Both are very important and should be tagged week in week out. Im also unsure about the amount of time Davey will play in the middle, i think he will push behind the footy and thus pick up more HFF offensive taggers. Where as Sylvia will get the main midfield taggers.

The only benefits i see for Sylvia are 2. He has done alright with tags last year and in the past, when he wants to play and dominate he seems like he can. Although the sample size is very small, from hard tags last year he avg 94. This is only from like 5 games Rounds (6,17,19,20 and 22) that i included. It can also be argued that he plays just as well if not better in losing sides. He performed extremely well in a few losses in 2009 (Hawks game comes to mind) and also this year when they lost a few late ones and he put up some serious scores. But it has to be said that it is only a very small sample size again and im going off the general rule of thumb (doesnt occur for everyone) but as i said most 100+ scorers come from top 8-9 teams.

I wouldve been happy to not talk about Sylvia, because the more that pick him, the better off i am. So take it as a good thing that i brought him up, yet to be talked about and for a player as i said paying 96 for who only plays 16 games a year over 6-7 years probably means he needs to be seriously thought about rather than the notation he is playing in an improving melbourne side who seem on the rise and also is still young and improving in the general eyes.

 

[pillager]

This post compared to mine?? You offer so much to this forum mate.

Certainly more than your diarrhea.

It just continues to ooze out.

 

[Athomas]

Dung Well Done analyses his own faeces to predict the future, a little bit like reading tea leaves.

However, the technique is a little unreliable after he has ingested some curry or chilli.

Pointless post. No point posting stuff like this, try to contribute.

DWD is right in that you should be aiming for players who will be in the top 8, of course you can't always predict this but you know someone like Brisbane/Port wouldn't be so you'd avoid them.

I personally don't think Richmond or Melbourne will be either.

 

[pillager]

Pointless post. No point posting stuff like this, try to contribute.

DWD is right in that you should be aiming for players who will be in the top 8, of course you can't always predict this but you know someone like Brisbane/Port wouldn't be so you'd avoid them.

I personally don't think Richmond or Melbourne will be either.

That's the point. You cannot predict the top 8 with any certainty, you can merely make an educated guess.

DWD scoffed at somebody because he believes with his superior knowledge which teams will make the 8 and therefore be able to predict the most likely 100+ scorers.

 

[Dunn - Well Done]

That's the point. You cannot predict the top 8 with any certainty, you can merely make an educated guess.

DWD scoffed at somebody because he believes with his superior knowledge which teams will make the 8.

I didnt??

I put points forward why i dont think melbourne will make the 8. You cant predict it exactly and it goes withoutn saying that its an educated guess. You can only go off your own beliefs and thoughts. If you think Melbourne will make the 8 than pick him for all sakes, or even if you see Melbourne improving on last years wins.

Thats what im saying. If you believe melbourne will make the 8 than he could be a very nice pick or even improvment, if you dont like myself (which is the side of the argument i believe and am discussing) than i wouldnt pick him.

 

[54Dogs]

Sylvia is interesting. Has all the tools to be a gun DTr. He tackles, marks, kicks goals and is a fwd who will play midfield. On the downside though:

- Priced at 97
- History of missing games through injury
- History of missing games through off field issues
- Sticks his head in places you would prefer your premiums not to
- In a team that may well miss the 8
- Last 3 years has scored 1400, 1600 and 1400 points
- Has to score 2100 points just to play to his average
- Has both byes in cluster groups
- Will see plenty of tagging attention this year


From a risk / reward perspective I can see a lot of ways his selection could go sour but not a great deal of upside from his price. Think I'd prefer a touch more certainty.

 

[pillager]

I didnt??

I put points forward why i dont think melbourne will make the 8. You cant predict it exactly and it goes withoutn saying that its an educated guess. You can only go off your own beliefs and thoughts. If you think Melbourne will make the 8 than pick him for all sakes, or even if you see Melbourne improving on last years wins.

Thats what im saying. If you believe melbourne will make the 8 than he could be a very nice pick or even improvment, if you dont like myself (which is the side of the argument i believe and am discussing) than i wouldnt pick him.

You did, it was indirect but it was there.

You write your posts as if you are infallible, it gets on the nose.

 

[Hannabal]

Bottom 8 side: I cat see Melbourne making the 8 or getting near it this year, there side doesnt actually look that great and they have lost a few quality players (Bruce, Macdonald, Morton, Frawley and also Cheney who could do some very good jobs).

Number 1 tag: I cant see why anyone else would get tagged ahead of Sylvia at melbourne. Hes an impacting player who can play forward and also kick goals and have a great affect on games. Davey is the only player who could take the tag away every now and again that i can think of.

Sylvia is never tagged because he doesn't find the ball easily in the midfield. In reality he's never been a great mid, which is why he's been good at DT (and inconsistent). He marks well, usually kicks it, gets goals and isn't tagged. That said, I don't have him.

Why mention Cheney when he couldn't get a game ? He played 2 games last year.

James McDonald is 34, no star and will be replaced by McKenzie and the maturation of others.

Bruce is a turnover merchant that has never been the same since Guerra's tackle.

Morton and Frawley will be back very early in the year and have done 90% of the preseason. Both of their injuries haven't impacted on their fitness (pec and finger).

I can hear the Chinese whispers between your ears.

 

[favourites]

Sylvia is interesting. Has all the tools to be a gun DTr. He tackles, marks, kicks goals and is a fwd who will play midfield. On the downside though:

- Priced at 97
- History of missing games through injury
- History of missing games through off field issues
- Sticks his head in places you would prefer your premiums not to
- In a team that may well miss the 8
- Last 3 years has scored 1400, 1600 and 1400 points
- Has to score 2100 points just to play to his average
- Has both byes in cluster groups
- Will see plenty of tagging attention this year


From a risk / reward perspective I can see a lot of ways his selection could go sour but not a great deal of upside from his price. Think I'd prefer a touch more certainty.

Great Post. Banking on him to play 22 is so much more important with the byes this year. He has upside, but he just don't get on the park enough to warrant selection over someone like Goodes who on history is almost certain to play 22 games.

 

[Benno_900]

I didnt??

I put points forward why i dont think melbourne will make the 8. You cant predict it exactly and it goes withoutn saying that its an educated guess. You can only go off your own beliefs and thoughts. If you think Melbourne will make the 8 than pick him for all sakes, or even if you see Melbourne improving on last years wins.

Thats what im saying. If you believe melbourne will make the 8 than he could be a very nice pick or even improvment, if you dont like myself (which is the side of the argument i believe and am discussing) than i wouldnt pick him.

But you bring that up consistently, often using it as the basis of your argument and I don't think it's a strong one (especially for a team like Melbourne).

Sure, he'd be a better pick if playing for a top team. But he has averaged 95 and 96 for the past 2 seasons. That's a top 5 average for a forward, so scoring power in an (arguably) average team is not the problem.

The big issue here is his durability and whether he can play a full season. A top 5 average doesn't mean much if you keep missing 5+ games. TBF, you have touched on that anyway. Just saying don't completely rule out a premium's potential just because they play for a bottom 8 side.

 

[theone5]

I wanted to bring something up which I feel has not been touched on or discussed all pre-season.

Let's not forget:

In the last 114 years of VFL/AFL football, we have never had a season run for 24 rounds.

"So what?", you may ask?
"What effect may this have from a DT perspective?"

Well while we are on the topic of Sylvia, it will help players such as him as the 2 byes for him (Round 5 and 16) will give him the rest to replenish the energy stores and to manage the sore spots. Keep in mind, he has never had the luxury of 2 mid-season byes before in his life.

Contrary to what most people would think, the longer season this year will benefit bigger bodies, and less durable players, as they will get two weeks to "freshen up". Trust me, as a footballer who has played for 18 seasons, I know how much a week off from football can help out the body.

Just something to think about.

 

[favourites]

Interesting stat is that this will be the first time in 5 years that Slyvia will play round 1. Points to the fact he has had some really poor preseasons in the past.

 

[DB10]

I have a question for the Sylvia nay-sayers ...

can you name a forward premium who doesn't have questions marks about them in 2011? this is really rather irrelevant because you can argue against every single one of them with some very solid and valid points for each other. for instance;

Chapman: no pre-season, going into the season injured with soft tissue injuries, reputation to be injury-prone, almost 30, has a finals bye, and the third most expensive player in the game

Goodes: now 31-years-old, notoriously slow starter, likely to see less midfield time now under Longmire?

Pavlich: last year suggested his form and days as a mega-scorer might be behind them with a number of sub-80 scores, which isn't what you want for his price tag

it's no different with Sylvia. every single one of these guys has counter-arguments to picking them, that's primarily because the forward premiums aren't very good this year. there is a risk with all of them, even Riewoldt, so ... what's wrong with Sylvia?

 

[Cizzler]

I wanted to bring something up which I feel has not been touched on or discussed all pre-season.

Let's not forget:

In the last 114 years of VFL/AFL football, we have never had a season run for 24 rounds.

"So what?", you may ask?
"What effect may this have from a DT perspective?"

Well while we are on the topic of Sylvia, it will help players such as him as the 2 byes for him (Round 5 and 16) will give him the rest to replenish the energy stores and to manage the sore spots. Keep in mind, he has never had the luxury of 2 mid-season byes before in his life.

Contrary to what most people would think, the longer season this year will benefit bigger bodies, and less durable players, as they will get two weeks to "freshen up". Trust me, as a footballer who has played for 18 seasons, I know how much a week off from football can help out the body.

Just something to think about.

Glad some brought this up. The two weeks will go a long way towards the longevity of certain players. How many times do we see 'general soreness', two byes will nip many of those in the bud.

 

[Self Destructing]

I have a question for the Sylvia nay-sayers ...

can you name a forward premium who doesn't have questions marks about them in 2011? this is really rather irrelevant because you can argue against every single one of them with some very solid and valid points for each other. for instance;

Chapman: no pre-season, going into the season injured with soft tissue injuries, reputation to be injury-prone, almost 30, has a finals bye, and the third most expensive player in the game

Goodes: now 31-years-old, notoriously slow starter, likely to see less midfield time now under Longmire?

Pavlich: last year suggested his form and days as a mega-scorer might be behind them with a number of sub-80 scores, which isn't what you want for his price tag

it's no different with Sylvia. every single one of these guys has counter-arguments to picking them, that's primarily because the forward premiums aren't very good this year. there is a risk with all of them, even Riewoldt, so ... what's wrong with Sylvia?

Exactly. You could even throw Franklin in there too. I know he's expected to smash it this year but every year there is a period you can pick him up cheap, also known to attend the tribunal. Probably has carry over points going into the season. (mind you i have him myself) but it's still another reason you could doubt his selection.

 

[Dunn - Well Done]

There are probably only 2/3 premium forward you can rely on. Which is why ill likely only pick 3 genuine premiums. You named all the players that have problems.

IMO Buddy doesnt really have to many problems. If he plays the same role than he will consistantly score like last year and not drop too much in price where he will be too cheap. I think it could also be argued that Hawthron may improve IMO, and also the fact that Roughy and Hale will be the main key forward targets up in attack, meaning Buddy can almost play that Richo wing role.

Happy for people to go wild and select Sylvia. Favourites brought up the best positive and thats his pre season. Never has he had a preseason like this one and look what happened with Chappy last year. However Chappy played for Geelong and had about 15 better mature aged players in his side compared to melbournes.

 

[Hannabal]

I'm not picking Sylvia because I reckon he'll play more midfield this year and having watched him for years I don't rate him as a midfielder. He's OK when he has the odd burst in there, but he just doesn't find the footy easily in the middle.

But for those discussing his durability it needs pointing out that the problems he had in the early years were his groins. He just couln't get them right. When he finally got them right he missed games due to a club imposed suspension. Last year he had his jaw broken by Kennedy and then a blood clot in his toe. He hasn't had soft tissue injuries, has never done a knee, calf, achilles, or hamstring. I reckon he's actually pretty durable now that the groin problems are a thing of the past.

 

[gocowsmoo]

I'm not picking Sylvia because I reckon he'll play more midfield this year and having watched him for years I don't rate him as a midfielder. He's OK when he has the odd burst in there, but he just doesn't find the footy easily in the middle.

But for those discussing his durability it needs pointing out that the problems he had in the early years were his groins. He just couln't get them right. When he finally got them right he missed games due to a club imposed suspension. Last year he had his jaw broken by Kennedy and then a blood clot in his toe. He hasn't had soft tissue injuries, has never done a knee, calf, achilles, or hamstring. I reckon he's actually pretty durable now that the groin problems are a thing of the past.

Agree 100% re durability. I don't pay attention to freak injuries as they are just that. Seriously, how many times have you heard of an infected toe costing games. That's not going to happen again. Broken jaw - could happen but that's wrong place wrong time.
Hamstrings groins etc - different story.
Sylvia should be fine (touch wood).

 

[Dunn - Well Done]

Agree 100% re durability. I don't pay attention to freak injuries as they are just that. Seriously, how many times have you heard of an infected toe costing games. That's not going to happen again. Broken jaw - could happen but that's wrong place wrong time.
Hamstrings groins etc - different story.
Sylvia should be fine (touch wood).

He also doesnt mind throwing his weight around and narking up eg: suspension chances. Now i dont think he has been suspended much if at all, but hes that type of player.

 

[Jolldo87]

So, Melbourne come 8th and Sylvia can average 100 but if they come 10th he can't? Absolute garbage.

Pretty much what's being said is if Melbourne win 12 games it's possible but if they only win 11 he's not going to average 100. It makes no difference. Now, if you said Melbourne were going to win 16+ then that's a different story.