DT 2011 Mids Thread

[Crows88]

Re: 2011 Mids Thread

Correct Jolldo - we are allowed one rookie upgrade at the start of the year and the word on the street is that Callinan is the man who has it all sewn up. The crows were extremely close to drafting him last year, however they liked the other rookie options in Henderson, Jaensch and Wright too much to pick him up so he was a given when they had the chance this year. He is fighting with Wright for that early upgrade as he an wright could both fill that small forward role. However, Callinan is full of experience and is really making the most of his 'last' chance.

 

[chadleverington]

Re: 2011 Mids Thread

wonder how callinan would handle the pace of AFL. Trouble is these days you need to be in the best 20 not best 22 with the sub rule.

 

[Jolldo87]

Re: 2011 Mids Thread

I think being best 20 is very overrated. Look at Rockliff last year, he wasn't best 22 at the start of the year. All it takes is a couple of injuries, which every club will get, and players get a chance. If a player is best 22 then the odds are even if they are used as a sub in the first couple of rounds that they'll get an opportunity to prove themselves and they'll be getting a regular game or get dropped because they're not up to it.

Callinan, however, is a different case. Adelaide have a bye round 2 so what I may do is wait until after round 3 to decide on him. That gives the option of trading out my worst rookie to the best performing Gold Coast/North Melbourne/Adelaide rookie available in a particular position. This gives us a chance to see how Callinan fits in for the first 2 games before making a decision on him.

 

[Wheedus]

Re: 2011 Mids Thread

wonder how callinan would handle the pace of AFL. Trouble is these days you need to be in the best 20 not best 22 with the sub rule.

I'm confused Is it 2 subs or 1?? I was under the impression there were 3 bench players and 1 sub.

 

[Triptanes]

Re: 2011 Mids Thread

I'm confused Is it 2 subs or 1?? I was under the impression there were 3 bench players and 1 sub.

1 sub, but assumption is player 21 would sub for player 22 at some point during the game. These two players will play less than a full game. In you team you want the 20 players that will play out a full game.

 

[Wheedus]

Re: 2011 Mids Thread

1 sub, but assumption is player 21 would sub for player 22 at some point during the game. These two players will play less than a full game. In you team you want the 20 players that will play out a full game.

Cheers. The penny dropped.

Geez - it's bad enough that prior to lockout we won't know who will be named as sub for any side (other than for the Friday night teams).

 

[Buddyman]

Re: 2011 Mids Thread

Doubt there will be a 21st player, it all depends on the game situation.
Say for the Hawks if they are trying to retain a lead than they may take a Hale type off, but if there going for it, it could be a murphy off for a more attacking player...
So I still think your looking at top 21, keeping in mind that most games someone will get injured...

 

[chadleverington]

Re: 2011 Mids Thread

I think being best 20 is very overrated. Look at Rockliff last year, he wasn't best 22 at the start of the year. All it takes is a couple of injuries, which every club will get, and players get a chance. If a player is best 22 then the odds are even if they are used as a sub in the first couple of rounds that they'll get an opportunity to prove themselves and they'll be getting a regular game or get dropped because they're not up to it.

Being at a struggling club also helps.

Callinan, however, is a different case. Adelaide have a bye round 2 so what I may do is wait until after round 3 to decide on him. That gives the option of trading out my worst rookie to the best performing Gold Coast/North Melbourne/Adelaide rookie available in a particular position. This gives us a chance to see how Callinan fits in for the first 2 games before making a decision on him.

That's a fair point. Will wait and see what they do with his position, but if he is a dual position player it might be extra value to just get him from the start and be able to move players around easier.

 

[GarnerSmash]

Re: 2011 Mids Thread

Originally Posted by Buddyman
haha well put Parasite.
Just thought I might mention that Liam Anthony averaged 1.07 ppm, that is up there with the bonafide premiums...
Gets your mouth watering but he is still a bit of an unknown 17 games in

The durability he has shown so far in his career makes him a big risk at his price.

Anthony has only had 2 injuries in his playing career to date, WAFL and AFL, both since he joined North. First was a foot stress fracture, due to running too much on hard ground and ignoring the warning signs. The second was an impact injury, from which he is fully recovered. Unlucky rather than injury prone. No soft tissue problems and fit as f**k. Lock him in I reckon.

 

[chadleverington]

Re: 2011 Mids Thread

Anthony has only had 2 injuries in his playing career to date, WAFL and AFL, both since he joined North. First was a foot stress fracture, due to running too much on hard ground and ignoring the warning signs. The second was an impact injury, from which he is fully recovered. Unlucky rather than injury prone. No soft tissue problems and fit as f**k. Lock him in I reckon.

2/2 years at afl level. Certain potential, i think he would be easy to take out of the game with a hard tag though. gets lots of cheap possies.

7 games, so possibly 10% discount, 95 average

Around the 305-310k mark. fair outlay for someone that hasn't played more than 8 games in a year.

Looking at the top 10 backs, top 10 mids, top 2 rucks and top 10 forwards from 2010 (by average), 28 out of 32 were from a top 8 side. As you would expect, teams that win games score more. Not expecting North Melbourne to be a top 8 side.

 

[Wheedus]

Re: 2011 Mids Thread

That's a fair point. Will wait and see what they do with his position, but if he is a dual position player it might be extra value to just get him from the start and be able to move players around easier.

I was looking at Dylan McNeil for the same reason. Basically it's case of choosing which of the two is more likely to get a game. Apparently McNeil was pretty close last year. McNeil is slightly more appealing due to Sydney's bye draw. In either case, given you get three bench players this year, it's less of a concern having one sitting there purely for the DPP. Similar theory applies to Magic Door.

 

[Wheedus]

Re: 2011 Mids Thread

Anthony stinks from a League perspective

 

[Narkee]

Re: 2011 Mids Thread

In either case, given you get three bench players this year, it's less of a concern having one sitting there purely for the DPP. Similar theory applies to Magic Door.

May be?

As obvious as it is, early on in the season it is most important to generate as much cash as you can. Having three genuine best 20/21 mids will maximise your ability to upgrade your team ASAP. DP is probably less important in the earlier rounds as you should have done your research and picked the rookies who are most likely to get games. So technically speaking, you sholdn't need DP early on.

I remember that there was a lot of talk on BF in the 2nd half of last year on the merit's of bringing in McNeill for DP cover purposes and many people found this strategy useful (including me ). It allowed you to maximise cash on your downgrade and also provide flexibility for covering late season rests/injuries.

In addition, by picking 3 rookie mids who you expect to play also gives you additional room for error. For example, say you picked McNeil and one of your bench rookies flopped, you now only have on genuine cash generator unless you burn a trade. Not picking McNeil allows one of your rookie mids to flop and you still have 2 genuine cash generators.

 

[jonoman89]

Re: 2011 Mids Thread

Locks for me are Swan and Selwood.

Seriously looking at one of either Gibbs or Murphy as they are underpriced and both will play midfield.

Boyd did me very proud last year, worthy of another look.

 

[54Dogs]

Re: 2011 Mids Thread

May be?

As obvious as it is, early on in the season it is most important to generate as much cash as you can. Having three genuine best 20/21 mids will maximise your ability to upgrade your team ASAP. DP is probably less important in the earlier rounds as you should have done your research and picked the rookies who are most likely to get games. So technically speaking, you sholdn't need DP early on.

I remember that there was a lot of talk on BF in the 2nd half of last year on the merit's of bringing in McNeill for DP cover purposes and many people found this strategy useful (including me ). It allowed you to maximise cash on your downgrade and also provide flexibility for covering late season rests/injuries.

In addition, by picking 3 rookie mids who you expect to play also gives you additional room for error. For example, say you picked McNeil and one of your bench rookies flopped, you now only have on genuine cash generator unless you burn a trade. Not picking McNeil allows one of your rookie mids to flop and you still have 2 genuine cash generators.

In a normal year I'd agree Narkee. DP definitely a 2nd half year requirement, less so in the first half. But this year is slightly different. Because of the bye there are 40+ games that need to be covered before your first injury or player is dropped, hence coverage is even more important. Particularly in the multiple bye rounds. I think it will be a key component from the get go this year.

 

[Narkee]

Re: 2011 Mids Thread

In a normal year I'd agree Narkee. DP definitely a 2nd half year requirement, less so in the first half. But this year is slightly different. Because of the bye there are 40+ games that need to be covered before your first injury or player is dropped, hence coverage is even more important. Particularly in the multiple bye rounds. I think it will be a key component from the get go this year.

Agree!

What I was getting at though, is that DP should be less of a factor during the early stages of a season because most of your rookies should be playing. Best case scenario, all your rookies are playing and therefore DP is not required whatsoever. The only benefit it may give you here is extra points here and there depending on which rookie you use to cover a bye (i.e. a mid rookie may score higher than a back rookie and you have a MID/BACK DP link).

Lucky for us this year there should be a number of viable rookie DP options that will allow us to set DP links from the get go. If this wasn't the case, I wouldn't be selecting a non-playing DP rookie on my bench for the sake of DP. I would be relying on my inital selected rookies to cover byes and trade myself into DP links as the season progresses.

 

[54Dogs]

Re: 2011 Mids Thread

Agree!

What I was getting at though, is that DP should be less of a factor during the early stages of a season because most of your rookies should be playing. Best case scenario, all your rookies are playing and therefore DP is not required whatsoever. The only benefit it may give you here is extra points here and there depending on which rookie you use to cover a bye (i.e. a mid rookie may score higher than a back rookie and you have a MID/BACK DP link).

Lucky for us this year there should be a number of viable rookie DP options that will allow us to set DP links from the get go. If this wasn't the case, I wouldn't be selecting a non-playing DP rookie on my bench for the sake of DP. I would be relying on my inital selected rookies to cover byes and trade myself into DP links as the season progresses.

Fair point.

Guys like Mzungu, krak and Callinan if they are fwd / mid will def cover the awkward rounds in the fwds, along with the Heppell / Jacobs types in the backs. Plus the premiums in the backs who are DP.

Should be plenty of room to move without wasting positions for the sake of DP unless it's the 4th ruck

 

[Wheedus]

Re: 2011 Mids Thread

Fair point.

Guys like Mzungu, krak and Callinan if they are fwd / mid will def cover the awkward rounds in the fwds, along with the Heppell / Jacobs types in the backs. Plus the premiums in the backs who are DP.

Should be plenty of room to move without wasting positions for the sake of DP unless it's the 4th ruck

Can't argue with any of the above. I wouldn't be looking at either Callinan or McNeil for the sake of DPP only. It just adds value in selecting them over another rookie with equivalent prospects of playing. From a League perspective, the early rounds (1, 2, 3, 7 and 8) are going to throw up some curve balls at selection and the ability to shuffle the decks may prove as valuable as it did in the second half of 2010.

 

[Tom12]

Re: 2011 Mids Thread

Fair point.

Guys like Mzungu, krak and Callinan if they are fwd / mid will def cover the awkward rounds in the fwds, along with the Heppell / Jacobs types in the backs. Plus the premiums in the backs who are DP.

Should be plenty of room to move without wasting positions for the sake of DP unless it's the 4th ruck

Agree. Shouldn't have to pick guys for the sake of DP really, unless its a rookie such as Krak, Mzungu or Clarke at a low price. Petrie is another exemption. But he's cheap and capable anyway.

 

[Dunn - Well Done]

Re: 2011 Mids Thread

2/2 years at afl level. Certain potential, i think he would be easy to take out of the game with a hard tag though. gets lots of cheap possies.

7 games, so possibly 10% discount, 95 average

Around the 305-310k mark. fair outlay for someone that hasn't played more than 8 games in a year.

Looking at the top 10 backs, top 10 mids, top 2 rucks and top 10 forwards from 2010 (by average), 28 out of 32 were from a top 8 side. As you would expect, teams that win games score more. Not expecting North Melbourne to be a top 8 side.

Yep and the year before i think DOGS said that 18 from 19 who avg above 100 were from top 8 or 9 teams in 2009.

I beg to differ with NM not making the eight. To me they have heaps of upside on last year, probably more than any other side. There spine are all young and really started to show promise (S.Thompson, Grima, Hansen, Goldstein), while we already know how much Petrie missed last year and i know HMAC has another gear.

Also if you look at there midfield they are all young and have heaps of upside, this along with a good coach who has good strategies and i reckon they should be top 8. Also drafted extremely well.

I havnt had a look at the top 8-10 teams but i can only see them missing because the competition is so strong.

It goes without saying that predicting ladder order is very important to having a successful DT year.

Im finding it really hard to predict where Adelaide will finish.

 

[timskul]

Andrew Krakouer worth $139500 OFFICIALLY!!
good price i reckon, seeing as people tipped it at 180k

http://www.afl.com.au/news/newsarticle/tabid/208/newsid/106727/default.aspx

 

[borrat]

sooooooooo hoping they reveal original gold coast matera,toy etc and players like mzungu and richrdson are 2nd lowest price next

also good news about krak

 

[Narkee]

Just did a quick MN calculation an assumed the $139,500 price tag for Krak is discounted at a number of intervals from 40% to 5% based on his 2007 average 48. These are the results:

40% discount - ~4,844
35% discount - ~4,471
30% discount - ~4,152
25% discount - ~3,875
20% discount - ~3,633
15% discount - ~3,419
10% discount - ~3,229
5% discount - ~3,059

m0nty's MN is ~4,273 so I am guessing that VS applied a 30% discount to Krak and the MN will be around 4,152.

 

[Yellow Feathers]

Monty's prices do look a little high for mine... This is good though, i expect to fit another gun into my side when DT opens in a few weeks!

 

[Crows88]

Monty's prices do look a little high for mine... This is good though, i expect to fit another gun into my side when DT opens in a few weeks!

M0nty's prices may be a little higher. However, I think he is getting people ready for when the prices come out and they are not as they seem. First of all because if the real prices come out and everyone is short 400k, everyone blames monty.

Secondly, we have to be realistic and realise that we would be very lucky for the guys who have been on GC's list for a year or more to have the same price as a general rookie.....