Dutchy'$ Footy 2009 Season thread

[Dutchy10]

and the purpose of posting a winner after the event is???????

Glenelg 40+
$50 @ $5.25

 

[dUkezz]

dutchy im thinking of putting $60 on ablett to poll in the most games.... thats at $5 my logic is he will poll alot early and hopefully even when he had his quiet games mite sneak in some 1s and 2s? what are your thoughts

 

[Dutchy10]

dutchy im thinking of putting $60 on ablett to poll in the most games.... thats at $5 my logic is he will poll alot early and hopefully even when he had his quiet games mite sneak in some 1s and 2s? what are your thoughts

hard to know, Im not a big Brownlow punter, mainly cause it is very hard to win, there is one reason the bookies promote it so much because its a huge $$$ spinner for them.

Im unlikely to have a punt on the outright winner, I think Gaz should win but not prepared to take the $3.00

will have some bets tonight on some other markets Ive studied

 

[lions_den]

hard to know, Im not a big Brownlow punter, mainly cause it is very hard to win, there is one reason the bookies promote it so much because its a huge $$$ spinner for them.

Im unlikely to have a punt on the outright winner, I think Gaz should win but not prepared to take the $3.00

will have some bets tonight on some other markets Ive studied

Nah I disagree. There's just too much value in the Brownlow. Sportsbet has shit itself in the last couple of days and closed all multibetting on team votes.

 

[GoodesStuff]

Nah I disagree. There's just too much value in the Brownlow. Sportsbet has shit itself in the last couple of days and closed all multibetting on team votes.

haha yer. was going to do my team votes on sportsbet this weekend but luckily got them in last weekend.

 

[Dr Awkward]

I agree that betting on the brownlow is not that good. After all... you are betting on the decisions of umpires. Last year Cooney got 3 votes in a game when The Age, Herald Sun, and Champion Data said that he was no chance for votes in that game.

The only thing I would say about it is that the umpries seem to have favorites so if you are going to bet you may as well bet on someone they like. Eg_ Goodes, Black, Judd, Cooney. They don't really seem to like Ablett that much he hasnt polled that well considering how well he has played.

 

[Ferris_rules]

Your a dead set tool mate, laughing at someones misfortune.

The guy puts his balls on the line when making bets and we should be fortunate that he allows us to view them which for the most part are accurate.

I dont expect to win every time I punt and losers like you cannot understand why, hell if I win 55% of the time I am happy. Again you would not be able to comprehend the reasoning.

Good work Dutchy keep it up !

 

[Oaksnaf]

Your a dead set tool mate, laughing at someones misfortune.

The guy puts his balls on the line when making bets and we should be fortunate that he allows us to view them which for the most part are accurate.

I dont expect to win every time I punt and losers like you cannot understand why, hell if I win 55% of the time I am happy. Again you would not be able to comprehend the reasoning.

Good work Dutchy keep it up !

The guys a deadset ****.

 

[asanque]

Pretty unlucky. Glenelg leading all the way.

 

[Ferris_rules]

The guys a deadset ****.

Oaksnaf not sure who that is directed against !?

But I will defend Dutchy10 for his efforts in here. I have made a lot of money just from digesting his thoughts and opinions let alone his final bets in here.

 

[Ferris_rules]

Pretty unlucky. Glenelg leading all the way.

And Glenelg had more scoring shots too.

The selection was sound, but nothing in betting circles is 100% unless you arbitrage or hedge your bets correctly!

Hell even last night I shitted myself for an hour it took the TAB that long to pay out my GF quinella of Saints-Cats and for a second I thought you needed to get the order right, lol.

 

[Death]

But I will defend Dutchy10 for his efforts in here. I have made a lot of money just from digesting his thoughts and opinions let alone his final bets in here.

Yeah, second that. SANFL tips and form insight have helped make 2009 a profitable year for me.

Now about this Granny...

 

[Trevanian]

Your a dead set tool mate, laughing at someones misfortune.

The guy puts his balls on the line when making bets and we should be fortunate that he allows us to view them which for the most part are accurate.

I dont expect to win every time I punt and losers like you cannot understand why, hell if I win 55% of the time I am happy. Again you would not be able to comprehend the reasoning.

Good work Dutchy keep it up !

Well Said....., Dutchy put's it on the line every week, win/lose/draw.it's very easy after the result to say you were on a winner or it was obvious who was gonna win.

Also he Lay'd off some of these anyway to mitigate any loss


PS Oak was backing you up about that joker who takes joy in other people misfortune.

 

[Ferris_rules]

Well Said....., Dutchy put's it on the line every week, win/lose/draw.it's very easy after the result to say you were on a winner or it was obvious who was gonna win.

PS Oak was backing you up about that joker who takes joy in other people misfortune.

It appears the mod deleted the comment.

I wish he didnt because tools need to be outed and remembered.

Hell I did pick a nice H-H multi over the weekend, but while I won, Im not going to ever discuss the odds or payout, just that Im happy.

I have always applauded Dutchy for putting it on the line.

Hard to do, easy to to criticize after !

In any case Dutchy was on the ball, I suggest that Glenelg's poor kicking let him down.

hell last week I picked the Crows and about half time I looked like a million dollars lol. Still think the bet was sound, lol.

Anyways I learn more from my losses than small wins.

This week Im on Geelong only one unit bet, Im happy this year my ROI is where I want it to be and this is a dead set tough game to pick with any strong conviction. In a normal home and away it would be a no bet game in my books.

 

[Oaksnaf]

Cmon Ferris Rules I am not that silly in directing such a slanderous comment towards you! It was of course pointed towards Goodestuff who throughout the whole year posted absolute garbage in this thread.

Dutchy is a big boy, and I am sure he can defend himself. But surely, surely this attention seeking slapper needs a boot to his campaignerhole as arn't we all here to BEAT THE BOOKIES. Rather than BOOST THE EGO.

Oh well. Each to their own. But Ferris Rules, I would hope in future that you are able to read my posts as clearly as Trevanian (who mind you has a good sense of humour!!)

 

[GoodesStuff]

Cmon Ferris Rules I am not that silly in directing such a slanderous comment towards you! It was of course pointed towards Goodestuff who throughout the whole year posted absolute garbage in this thread.

Dutchy is a big boy, and I am sure he can defend himself. But surely, surely this attention seeking slapper needs a boot to his campaignerhole as arn't we all here to BEAT THE BOOKIES. Rather than BOOST THE EGO.

Oh well. Each to their own. But Ferris Rules, I would hope in future that you are able to read my posts as clearly as Trevanian (who mind you has a good sense of humour!!)

where is this so called RUBBISH that ive posted in this thread

 

[Dutchy10]

Did I miss something? Been a shocking day, absolutely shattered the Bays blew that, have hardly thought about losing the bet, it was the right bet, just wish they didnt bet $1.83 about them, any shorter I wouldnt have backed them...anyway, spent about 2 hours this morning on the Brownlow and here we go -

Brownlow
Most Votes Adelaide
Thomspon $100 @ $3.50 (Sportsbet)
Goodwin $20 @ $21.00 (Centrebet)

Brisbane
Rich $20 @ $26.00 (Sportsbet)

Carlton
Gibbs $75 @ $10.00 (Sportsbet)
Any Other $5 @ $101.00 (Sportsbet) - not Fev, Judd, Gibbs, Murphy
K Simpson $10 @ $151.00 (Centrebet)

Geelong
Any other $5 @ $101.00 (Luxbet) - not Ablett, Selwood, Chapman, Bartel, Johnson

North Melbourne
Any Other $40 @ $12.00 (Luxbet) - not Harvey, Petrie, Swallow, Anthony, Simpson, McIntosh

Richmond
D Jackson $15 @ $17.00 (Centrebet)

Bullies
Cooney $75 @ $5.25 (Luxbet)

Judd 0-14 votes
$30 @ $8.50 (Sportsbet)

 

[Athomas]

Brisbane, Geelong, North bets are insane. No chance.

I like the Goodwin and Thompson bets, still think Vince will win it.

Gibbs has a chance, still think Judd will win it, why do you think Judd will poll badly?

Jackson is a chance I guess.

Cooney is the only bet I can agree with though. Sorry, just my opinion.

Good work with your year Dutchy! Will follow you closely next season.

 

[2121]

dutchy may i suggest money on steve johnson to be leader after 11 rnd paying 10-1

 

[Gift]

Geelong
Any other $5 @ $101.00 (Luxbet) - not Ablett, Selwood, Chapman, Bartel, Johnson

I wouldnt take it if it paid 1000-1 lol

Only hope would be Corey, but he never really polls that well.

 

[gothedons]

Did I miss something? Been a shocking day, absolutely shattered the Bays blew that, have hardly thought about losing the bet, it was the right bet, just wish they didnt bet $1.83 about them, any shorter I wouldnt have backed them...anyway, spent about 2 hours this morning on the Brownlow and here we go -

Brownlow
Most Votes Adelaide
Thomspon $100 @ $3.50 (Sportsbet)
Goodwin $20 @ $21.00 (Centrebet)

Brisbane
Rich $20 @ $26.00 (Sportsbet)

Carlton
Gibbs $75 @ $10.00 (Sportsbet)
Any Other $5 @ $101.00 (Sportsbet) - not Fev, Judd, Gibbs, Murphy
K Simpson $10 @ $151.00 (Centrebet)

Geelong
Any other $5 @ $101.00 (Luxbet) - not Ablett, Selwood, Chapman, Bartel, Johnson

North Melbourne
Any Other $40 @ $12.00 (Luxbet) - not Harvey, Petrie, Swallow, Anthony, Simpson, McIntosh

Richmond
D Jackson $15 @ $17.00 (Centrebet)

Bullies
Cooney $75 @ $5.25 (Luxbet)

Judd 0-14 votes
$30 @ $8.50 (Sportsbet)

sorry mate but cooney and thompson are your only ones that are any chance, and they are only slight (will kill my multi's if either get up)

 

[mercurial]

where is this so called RUBBISH that ive posted in this thread

Glenelg to Win Flag
$1,000 @ $2.60

POT?

Glenelg Win
$300 @ $1.83

Glenelg 40+
$50 @ $5.25

lol

Short memory eh? There you go

 

[Dutchy10]

Ill explain the thoughts behind my selections, again Im not expert on the Brownlow but have looked for value

Adelaide - Vince has been good but in their wins Thompson has been better this year who has polled well before $3.50 at Sportsbet, was $2.50 at some other places
Brisbane - Rich is just a spec bet at odds, blonde hair and plenty of media attention may get him votes
Carlton - Reckon Gibbs is a huge chance, should be more like $4.00 IMO has played well in their wins, has a level head and would get noticed by the umps, I might be wrong with Judd but I dont think he has had the season everyone is raving about, prepared to risk him at the short quote. And I think Kade Simpson will get some votes, had a great year
Geelong - Another spec bet, mainly on Corey who has had almost as good a year as Gaz yet is $101, have to take the value, if Gaz doesnt poll its a show
Roos - Harvey shouldnt be $1.30, way too short, but I cant work out who his main danger is, with any other I get Rawlings, McMahon, Firrito etc
Richmond - Jackson is a smokey, has been excellent in all their wins
Bullies - Cooney is a huge show IMO

adding

Melbourne
N Jones $20 @ $101.00 (Centrebet)

IMO is almost their best player, 5-6 votes could win it and he is a chance

 

[deledio_gun]

Good luck Dutchy...you have some potential for some good returns there.

I have really liked the $1.80 on offer for: Swan Top 5 (Sportingbet)

 

[Cassius_Clay]

Nathan Jones Melbournes best player? He wouldnt even bet top 10 on this years form. Maybe 12 months when the media was spunking all over him. Wont ever be anything more than an average player.

Back to brownlow. Cant see Jones winning Melbournes as I doubt he'll poll a single vote.

S.Thompson is a great bet.