Early Fevola trade analysis

[Malifice]

Posted this in a different thread, but it probably deserves a thread of its own.

Plus I'm getting sick of the constant 'Talia outrage' threads. Please don't hijack this thread with that little chestnut.

Obviously its way too early too know for sure, but what are your early thoughts regarding the final trade outcome now that the dust has settled?

In effect we gained:

Henderson (195 cms, 20 year old, 1st round, KPF), and
Lucas (188 cms, 18 year old, 1st round, HFF/ Mid)

In exchange for:

Fevola (191 cms, 29 year old, third round KPF), and
Bartlett (179cms, 18 year old, 2nd round, Mid).

Obviously Lucas and Bartlett have yet to play a game or kick a ball in anger at AFL level, and Henderson still has yet to make a mark at the top level.

Nonetheless, we gained a very well credentialed 1st round midfielder (tipped to go a lot earlier in the Draft), and an equally well credentialed 1st round KPF with 2 years AFL experience (learning from names such as Brown, Bradshaw, Voss and Matthews).

We also gained a total of 13 cms in height in comparison between the two pairs of players, and lost a total of 9 years of age. We freed up room in the salary cap, and arguably gained in maturity and removed a probable bad influence.

However we also lost a lot of AFL experience, marketability (and a dual coleman medalist).

Still, its looking like a win/ win for both clubs at least for mine (at this early stage), with a short term advantage for Brisbane countered by a long term advantage for the Blues.

IMO an overall win for Carlton.

Also if the rumors are correct that we rated Davies as highly as we did, there appears to be a very good chance we would have drafted him with #27 regardless. Picking him up at #43 is a real bonus.

Lions supporters feel free to add comments and opinions (subject to Carlton board rules of course!).

 

[Malifice]

Edit: I forgot about Bradshaw.

You could probably add Bradshaw as a loss to the Lions as well as a direct result of the trade... and although we didnt gain anything from this, the Lions clearly lost something.

This tips the balance frimly in favour of the Blues at this stage.

 

[Dramoth]

Dont forget that Risk a telly will be heading off to GC17 next year when he comes out of his contract after his treatment by Vossy.

Sounds like a really good recruiting strategy there

 

[BlueGibbs2011]

I think I have it now Malifice.

Discussions must be based on a Carlton board template.

Carlton won by the length of Flemington straight. Brisbane completely stuffed up (woot woot). Every other club stuffed up except us because they just did.

• Losing Fev was an absolute godsend.
• Henderson will be twice as good as Fev.No 4, no 5 times
• Lucas the next Judd,
• And Eddie Betts and Yarran without Fev holding them back will become champions.
• Waite > Fev
• Austin the new Waite
• WHs is great.

To anyone who suggests the loss of Fev sets us back...ludricrous!

 

[Silvagnis]

Dean Laidley trade history board...

 

[The Old Dark Navy's]

I think I have it now Malifice.

Discussions must be based on a Carlton board template.

Carlton won by the length of Flemington straight. Brisbane completely stuffed up (woot woot). Every other club stuffed up except us because they just did.

• Losing Fev was an absolute godsend.
• Henderson will be twice as good as Fev.No 4, no 5 times
• Lucas the next Judd,
• And Eddie Betts and Yarran without Fev holding them back will become champions.
• Waite > Fev
• Austin the new Waite
• WHs is great.

To anyone who suggests the loss of Fev sets us back...ludricrous!

He seems to have nailed the facts of the matter fairly well. You might not like his conclusion but that's what debate is for.

Maybe Malifice should apologise for not using the 'I love Carlton as much as anyone but I reserve the right to be critical about everything they do' template.

* 3 years from Fev is better than 10 years from anybody else
* Even with a greater percentage of delivery, our other forwards will kick no more goals than they did for
* Waite had a knee injury next year and as such is a cripple
* Fev didn't demand the ball, he was as shocked as anybody that they kept kicking it to him
* Fev was 100% committed at all times so we won't gain anything there
* More forward options means more losers with a chance to drop a mark and stuff it up
* Brisbane did a great trade, Brown will play until he is 35 so Henderson was not part of their succession planning and Bradshaw was an overpaid cripple
* If we have a downturn because of a new forward structure, we will stay down for years
* Fev is the only reason we made the finals last season, the rest of them just ride on his coattails

Disappointed in you Malifice ...

 

[Sin City]

I still think a few people really miss the point with some of my posts - open your mind just a little for a second.

I think I have it now Malifice.

Discussions must be based on a Carlton board template.

Carlton won by the length of Flemington straight. Brisbane completely stuffed up (woot woot). Every other club stuffed up except us because they just did.

• Losing Fev was an absolute godsend.
• Henderson will be twice as good as Fev.No 4, no 5 times
• Lucas the next Judd,
• And Eddie Betts and Yarran without Fev holding them back will become champions.
• Waite > Fev
• Austin the new Waite
• WHs is great.

To anyone who suggests the loss of Fev sets us back...ludricrous!

I think we get your game loud and clear. Don't be so surprised next time when people become aggressive towards your "opinions"

 

[Sin City]

Nonetheless, we gained a very well credentialed 1st round midfielder (tipped to go a lot earlier in the Draft), and an equally well credentialed 1st round KPF with 2 years AFL experience (learning from names such as Brown, Bradshaw, Voss and Matthews).

Absolutely, trading Fev has helped set us up for next decade.

Also, isn't it great to be reading about how well training is going, the enthusiasm around the club, how good our new guys are etc at this time of year rather than the Fev shitfights or Stevo coming back overweight reports that have dogged us the last few seasons.

 

[BlueGibbs2011]

He seems to have nailed the facts of the matter fairly well. You might not like his conclusion but that's what debate is for.

Maybe Malifice should apologise for not using the 'I love Carlton as much as anyone but I reserve the right to be critical about everything they do' template.

* 3 years from Fev is better than 10 years from anybody else
* Even with a greater percentage of delivery, our other forwards will kick no more goals than they did for
* Waite had a knee injury next year and as such is a cripple
* Fev didn't demand the ball, he was as shocked as anybody that they kept kicking it to him
* Fev was 100% committed at all times so we won't gain anything there
* More forward options means more losers with a chance to drop a mark and stuff it up
* Brisbane did a great trade, Brown will play until he is 35 so Henderson was not part of their succession planning and Bradshaw was an overpaid cripple
* If we have a downturn because of a new forward structure, we will stay down for years
* Fev is the only reason we made the finals last season, the rest of them just ride on his coattails

Disappointed in you Malifice ...

Sorry ODN, Malifice did get it very close...my point is that I could only see this thread going pearshaped if anyone even slightly downgraded Malifice's opinion from a Carlton win in the trade.

My above post was sarcasm only and I'm completely at ease with losing Fev and restructuring our team going fwd. Was very happy when the new deal of Hendo and 12 came along - very happy.

 

[BlueGibbs2011]

Absolutely, trading Fev has helped set us up for next decade.

Also, isn't it great to be reading about how well training is going, the enthusiasm around the club, how good our new guys are etc at this time of year rather than the Fev shitfights or Stevo coming back overweight reports that have dogged us the last few seasons.

No disprepect intended Sin, but you are taking different things out of my posts that what is intended.

 

[The Old Dark Navy's]

Sorry ODN, Malifice did get it very close...my point is that I could only see this thread going pearshaped if anyone even slightly downgraded Malifice's opinion from a Carlton win in the trade.

My above post was sarcasm only and I'm completely at ease with losing Fev and restructuring our team going fwd. Was very happy when the new deal of Hendo and 12 came along - very happy.

So you were being sarcastic, while playing the role of other posters and pre-empting what sarcastic remarks they may make? Okay.

 

[Weiterbot23]

We may aswell just trade our second pick away every year, if the player we want is always available at our third round selection anyway

 

[The Old Dark Navy's]

We may aswell just trade our second pick away every year, if the player we want is always available at our third round selection anyway

I'd say we would have a list of players we would be happy to take in the second round and the odds are that one of those on the list will make it to the third round. Outside the top 6-10, the names on club lists would vary greatly I'd say and someone in our top 30 won't be on plenty of other lists.

 

[HARKER]

I think I have it now Malifice.

Discussions must be based on a Carlton board template.

Carlton won by the length of Flemington straight. Brisbane completely stuffed up (woot woot). Every other club stuffed up except us because they just did.

• Losing Fev was an absolute godsend.
• Henderson will be twice as good as Fev.No 4, no 5 times
• Lucas the next Judd,
• And Eddie Betts and Yarran without Fev holding them back will become champions.
• Waite > Fev
• Austin the new Waite
• WHs is great.

To anyone who suggests the loss of Fev sets us back...ludricrous!

I'm glad to have read down the page on this one, as I was just sharpening my claws for you

As a club, let me re-phrase that: AS A CLUB, we are way in front, and remember:
"Sometimes you have to go backwards (at least the perception of) to go forwards"

 

[Blue and Silver]

Due to the inevitable need for a forward line re-structure which unfortunatly wasn't initiated sometime this year prior to trading Fev I anticipate some short-term damage to our game next year. But on the long term, I believe we have gained a more than fair compensation and should benefit with the development of Henderson

 

[40yearBLUE]

The only problem with comparisons like this is that there are too many variables. I can see your logic of who gained the better combination, we gained Hendo/Lucas they gained Fev/Bartlett so who got the better deal, but comparing that we got Lucas and they got Bartlett is a little difficult because of the luck of the draft. There is no saying they would have taken Lucas (or that he would have been available) if they retained pick 12 and the same goes with us and Bartlett, perhaps we would have taken a tall (wash my mouth out!!) but other than that an excellent assessment.

That said, I guess we would really need to wait a year or 2 to truly know, for example, whilst Brisbanes recruiting is short term thinking and ours long term, if Brisbane snags a flag with the list they have now (rapidly aging as it is) then you would have to say they made the right choices, on the other hand we may dominate for half a decade when our list hits its peak, like Geelong seems to be doing. And of course, Lucas and Bartlett will have had the opportunity to show if they deserved to be selected where they were and Hendo a chance to prove his worth in a forward role not competing for the oportunity with Brown.

My bias has me thinking that Brisbane wont win that elusive flag and age will catch up to their guns including Brown and Fev and they will pay a high price, and our team will gel into a powerhouse once again.

 

[BlueGibbs2011]

I'm glad to have read down the page on this one, as I was just sharpening my claws for you

As a club, let me re-phrase that: AS A CLUB, we are way in front, and remember:
"Sometimes you have to go backwards (at least the perception of) to go forwards"

I realized the danger of my initial post being misread - and due to my own fault of not making it clear.

But keep the claws at the rdy Harker, you make good points along with a few others like BB, MS, TQ. I'm sure i'll stuff up soon enough and 30yrb and SC and a few others need your leadership.

 

[Bluebear]

Clearly its too early to tell.

If we focus on the key players:

Brisbane - lose Henderson, Bradshaw, Lucas (assuming they would have taken him)
get - Fevola (covers Bradshaw more or less) and Bartlett (at this stage = Lucas, but we'd be very disappointed if this were the case in 12 months).

At this point I had the Lions as a big loss. What has thrown a little bit of a question into it was the selection of Maguire.
If Goose recaptures any sort of form they then have Bradhsaw and Henderson covered more or less, and the patchwork in the middle with Buchannon, Clark etc may see them break even.

The question of whether we have "won" is a simpler analysis but will be a year or two before we can judge it.

Our Equation is simple:

Fev vs Henderson and Lucas.

Time will tell.

For mine we are at evens and the Lions a slight loss, but ask again in June.

 

[BlueGibbs2011]

Our Equation is simple:

Fev vs Henderson and Lucas.

Time will tell.

For mine we are at evens and the Lions a slight loss, but ask again in June.

Fev + Bartlett vs Henderson and Lucas.

Still happy with our side on the surface of that. We g\et more years of footy (16 vs 11 years). And even tho we lose a good player, we get rid of a poor character dragging down the whole team.

Like 30yb said, I think the Lions have made a mistake and wont pick up a flag in the next 3 which means all this wheeling and dealing is a fail. They may as well kept Bradshaw for team harmony.

PS
If Ball is anything to go by..Fev could have ended up at the Pies for free. Thank god for Voss's brain spasm!

 

[AlecDuncan]

It'll be heartbreaking to see Fev in another jumper, and it'll especially grind my beans if Brisbane take the final step with him.

The trade was what I was hoping for in a buyer's market. Fev had maybe three years of top football left, and we had no obvious replacement.

Henderson is that replacement - not immediately, but eventually. Lucas, by reputation, sounds like he can only help. We could expect to get a combined twenty years from these two, for the loss of Fev's three. It sounds like a bargain when you put it that way.

 

[2ndeffort]

Another way to look at it would be to say:

Brisbane gets a Marquis player, best forward in the league, reigning Coleman medallist, and a proven matchwinner who unfortunately is a pi$$head that cant keep himself in check off the park.

We get a much younger highly rated forward prospect that could be great but really hasnt proven anything yet.

Both teams have drafted a running player. We think ours will be better but we thought Livo was going to be a superstar too. In the long term who really knows!

 

[Bluebear]

Fev + Bartlett vs Henderson and Lucas.

ericpascoe has reported that we rated Davies at 14, meaning we would have taken him with pick 27.....much like Robbo last year we got a freebie, so I think the equation for us is still Fev vs LH and Lucas.

 

[Sin City]

ericpascoe has reported that we rated Davies at 14, meaning we would have taken him with pick 27.....much like Robbo last year we got a freebie, so I think the equation for us is still Fev vs LH and Lucas.

If it works out as well as the Robinson pick I'll be thrilled.

Do you think this might be why we are ok with trading away our second round pick the last few years? We've traded away pick 20 in 2007, 24 in 2008 and 27 this year but managed to get good, mature, ready made types in Browne, Armfield, Robinson and Davies.

 

[The Toad]

Whilst I am pissed at loosing "you know who" I think we have come out of it marginally better. The fact that Henderson already has 2 years experience under the likes of Brown, Bradshaw. And dont forget year under Mattews as a coach, all this can not be taken lightly. The departure of "you know who" will make the like's of Betts, Garlett, Yarran etc, stand up and take more responsability.

The big irish will also gain in confidence knowing that he wont get killed while going for marks. I really think our fwd line will improve by becoming far less transparent, we no longer have 1 target to kick goals, we now have 6+ for opposition coach's to be concerned with.

More flexibility / less predictability can only be a good thing.

 

[Dramoth]

Due to the inevitable need for a forward line re-structure which unfortunatly wasn't initiated sometime this year prior to trading Fev I anticipate some short-term damage to our game next year. But on the long term, I believe we have gained a more than fair compensation and should benefit with the development of Henderson

Agreed.

With Fev in the forwardline, the opposition knew that at least 7/10 times we would be heading in his direction and they could drop a defender into the hole in front of him because all the other forwards would be moving up the ground to create that hole.

Sometimes it worked when we kicked to him, but a lot of the times, the opposition was able to rebound because they were able to effect a spoil that brought the ball to ground and run it out while Fev was on the ground glaring at the umpires.

With a new structure the club is going to be going backwards slightly over the first half of the season and I think that we should still be 6-5 by the halfway mark. By this time, the team will be used to the new forward structure and it will all click together and we should be in the 8 again... quite comfortably I reckon.

To those people who are bitching and moaning about the club getting rid of Fev... please remember that we were not developing a replacement full forward to take over from Fev in a couple of years and the tall forwards we had were not all that crash hot in the end.

The club just advanced Fev's departure date and has given us a better chance going forward to get #17 on the shelf with the other cups