Yes I am hoping that the poker faces aren't quite as stern as the public projection.
Hot Topic Carlton 2024 Trade Discussion
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To put it simply, yes.
Slightly deeper dive is, this years draft is stacked, next years draft is considerably weaker on top of that the points index is changing next year and the discount being reduced from 20% to 10%.
Not many clubs want future picks, apart from a couple in the west that have an eye on Warner.
The 2026 draft is likely to be the first with Tassie draft concessions.
Taking all this, as well as the need to use 2 first round picks every 4 years, with Cody Walker shaping as a likely top 5 selection in 2026, the lack of optimism in the 2025 draft and the bonus of bringing in youth in a strong draft which is very advantageous to our salary cap vs bringing in a very good half back flanker on above decent coin.
The Carlton's brains trust feels like it is vital to use a first round selection in this draft over trading it for a 2 x AA player.
If we can get a second first round pick this year, satisfy Port with a trade and maintain access to top level talent. Then we will.
lukep_86
Club Legend
A hefty price: Why the Pies’ pursuit of Houston is risky
Collingwood are ahead of Carlton in the tender for the services of Dan Houston but the deal carries risks for the Magpies.www.theage.com.au
So we're being too conservative and not doing enough to get Houston and the Pies are being risky by giving up draft picks to get Houston.
The media can GAGF!
- May 1, 2002
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- Carlton
The media won’t be content until we trade away another round 1 pick. It’s as if they are cheer leading us on.
The best part this time, they all want us to throw away multiple additional picks to go with our round 1 pick.
I’ll never forget Caroline Wilson’s comment on us getting the Campo twins earlier in the year “they don’t need to get both” was her cry in an angry almost vindictive tone.
FMD.
The best part this time, they all want us to throw away multiple additional picks to go with our round 1 pick.
I’ll never forget Caroline Wilson’s comment on us getting the Campo twins earlier in the year “they don’t need to get both” was her cry in an angry almost vindictive tone.
FMD.
In fairness their list is older then ours, they traded away top picks last year and have already won a flag.
We are younger, have achieved nothing and took 1st round picks the last 2 years (even if they weren't high).
So we are in a slightly different position. The argument that we should be taking the risk has a fair bit of validity.
Yep, that's how I see it. There was another point that we already have the Campo twins coming in, so we are still getting young talent through the door, and Houston is a once only offer. We can go to the Draft again next year. Sure this might be a better talent pool of 'unprovens' but Austin can earn his money next year.
How many #12 picks have become AA players in the past 20 years? 2 or 3 maybe? Should be offered to secure Houston.
Read the post again, it’s pretty clear
Blue and Silver
Brownlow Medallist
James Frawley (2006)
Cyril Rioli (2007)
Sam Docherty (2012)
Charlie Curnow (2015)
Zak Butters (2018)
Honourable mentions who haven't got the AA Blazer
Nathan Jones (2005)
Jy Simpkin (2016)
Darcy Fogarty (2017)
Kysaiah Pickett (2019)
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And after a couple of bids, it's no longer pick 12
Pick 12 has a decent history. Pick 14 less good. Pretty awful over 20 years actually.
A.Monfires, G.Birchall, J.Sellar, J.Grimes, A.Cordy, L.Jetta, B.Smith, D,Smith, A.Corr, C.McCarthy, J.Lever, E.Hipwood, H.Perryman, M.Ling, J.Hately, M.Bergman, H.Chapman, C.Chesser, E.Hewett, J.Rodgers,
Would classify Birchall, Lever and B.Smith as really good players (though none are stars). Sellar, Grimes, Cordy, Jetta, McCarthey, Ling, Hately are busts. Monfries, D.Smith, Corr, Hipwood, Perryman, Bergman, Chapman (could elevate himself) solid players
Chesser, Hewett, Rodgers too early to tell (though could see Chesser being a bust)
So, looking at about a 20% chance of getting a really good player, 40% chance of getting a solid player and 40% chance of getting a bust based on historical averages.
I know looking at one pick number doesn't tell the whole story (better off looking at pick ranges) but it's interesting and the %'s came out roughly as I would have expected. Once you go out of the top 5-10 the hit rate declines dramatically.
Thanks for the clear response. So 5 in total. Get him while we are in the window coz in 4-5 years we will not be.
The reality is it is most likely whoever we pick with our 1st pick won't ever be as good as Houston. They may play more games though even that is 50-50 (assuming Houston can give us at least 120).
Fine for Austin to stick to his convictions but he must nail the pick. No excuses.
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TBH it’s absolutely crazy to play the percentages like he is. And let’s say he does get a gun? A minimum 2 years before he has the kind of impact that nets us a flag, unless he thinks there anyone in the draft as ready and as good as Naicos.
Given that we have the Campos, I just cannot justify not paying for a bonafide dual AA over an unknown. Not on any level.
I can feel a total FOMO Melt coming on, and if Austin sticks to his guns I dare say I won’t be the only one.
Jimmae
Brownlow Medallist
Friendly reminder that we have two AA half-backs on the list already, as well as Zac Williams (who I'm shocked never got a nod at GWS).
- Aug 16, 2009
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We've already brought in a reasonably significant portion of our squad from other clubs. I feel this gets overlooked when pushing for additional, moves, that we've hit the trade table more than most if not all other finalists when constructing the list.
It's a squad that finished 8th with a number of holes to fill & limited cap space available to do so, holding onto the multiple draft assets & reasonably significant amount of salary, isnt an absurd suggestion.
An additional benefit of draftees beyond helping rebalance our list from an age perspective is that their initial contracts will be at a minimum & help create flexibility to manoeuvre in the medium term.
It's a squad that finished 8th with a number of holes to fill & limited cap space available to do so, holding onto the multiple draft assets & reasonably significant amount of salary, isnt an absurd suggestion.
An additional benefit of draftees beyond helping rebalance our list from an age perspective is that their initial contracts will be at a minimum & help create flexibility to manoeuvre in the medium term.
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4flagsin5yrs
Premiership Player
National Draft Pick #12 - Draftguru
www.draftguru.com.au
Say we get #13 (fingers crossed), but don't get Houston for whatever reason (I don't think it's going to be so easy to find the extras for Port).
Swans have offered 19 & 22 to the Suns for 13.
Maybe something like
F1+F2 for 13
34 for * F2 (so we've upgraded F2)
13 for 19 + 22
Hit the draft with 12, 19, 22 and late picks for Campos.
Swans have offered 19 & 22 to the Suns for 13.
Maybe something like
F1+F2 for 13
34 for * F2 (so we've upgraded F2)
13 for 19 + 22
Hit the draft with 12, 19, 22 and late picks for Campos.
- Jul 13, 2018
- 1,158
- 2,653
- AFL Club
- Carlton
Would be a great result
- Oct 4, 2018
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- Arsenal & NY Knicks
Might come down to list spots as it would mean taking 5 at the draft but I love it. Agree on Houston but a Kennedy trade if it eventuates could give us something to work with
For list spots you could maybe take the gamble that Lucas doesn't attract a bid and we can take as a rookie.
Wonder what combining 19 & 22 could also become…
- Jul 13, 2018
- 1,158
- 2,653
- AFL Club
- Carlton
Back to 13??
Disclaimer; Past performance is not indicative of future results
