Early Markets

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Resarenco said:
well well now that the round 18 thread has been put up, footyforecaster was the most accurate, seems as if I did contribute something after all. Especially on the carlton and West Coast odds that some people laughed at. Go Footyforecaster ! I don't even you use it just knew about it.
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I am not sure you understand the concept.

It was not an exercise in trying to be the most accurate. It is trying to find value. How do you find value if you are the most accurate to what the bookies offer?

It is about finding chinks in the bookies prices, not trying to get closest to their markets.
 
Resarenco said:
well well now that the round 18 thread has been put up, footyforecaster was the most accurate, seems as if I did contribute something after all. Especially on the carlton and West Coast odds that some people laughed at. Go Footyforecaster ! I don't even you use it just knew about it.
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Wow you're still harping on about being accurate or correct. People laughed at you cos you plagiarized and thought you could get away with it. Besides, footy forecaster was no where near your bookie's odds for westcoast vs freo.
 
I know many have issues on loading up on a short priced favourite if they aren't almost certain they will win.

I marked Adelaide as a $5 chance, they were put up at $6. So obviously value for the crows and should be taken.

I also marked Hawthorn at $1.25 but they have gone up at $1.30. This value does not seem as obvious and I don't think they are morals either.

In both cases though there is an almost identical 3% difference to my odds and the bookies. I probably should take Hawthorn as well but it seems harder to pull the trigger.

You following?
 

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GoodesStuff said:
Damn, why did I wait for the real odds for Hawthorn to come out.. ;)

St. Kilda stupid odds though at $1.10 IMO.
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And here GoodesStuff shows us why making a market is a viable punting tool.

St Kilda Should win, they probably will. However, if you continually take under the odds, or odds that are little value, it is almost guaranteed that you as a punter will not win.
 
twarby said:
i look to be the only one not rating the Swans, they have done nothing impressive this year imo.
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I am an angry supporter atm!

We lost to Adelaide a couple of weeks ago and managed to get done at home against Freo :mad:

I think we should be slight favs this weekend but I don't know why all the early money seems to be coming for us...
 
twarby said:
i look to be the only one not rating the Swans, they have done nothing impressive this year imo.


the Crows are always competitive at Etihad, and the Saints hardly blow teams away
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FWIW my price is more a knock on the Dogs who I still reckon are not much good. Not that Sydney are world beaters either but reckon a roughly 60-40 game is about right

Will probably end up being a no bet game anyway
 
Resarenco said:
well well now that the round 18 thread has been put up, footyforecaster was the most accurate, seems as if I did contribute something after all. Especially on the carlton and West Coast odds that some people laughed at. Go Footyforecaster ! I don't even you use it just knew about it.
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LOL Your stupidity is rather entertaining but you still need to leave this forum.
 
Resarenco said:
well well now that the round 18 thread has been put up, footyforecaster was the most accurate, seems as if I did contribute something after all. Especially on the carlton and West Coast odds that some people laughed at. Go Footyforecaster ! I don't even you use it just knew about it.
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Christ, so you think that the idea behind framing your own market (or plagiarising someone else's) is to be as close to the bookies odds as possible? Far out......
 

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twarby said:
the Crows are always competitive at Etihad
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This is the same reasoning i used when i backed the Crows to beat North a little while back at Etihad, then North pumped them.

Not sure i can convince myself to use that reason again, although a score of 41.5 is not much less than what the Saints usually score, so be the Crows at the line.
 
saints will smash crowshttp://www.************/sports/52/b/happy.gifhttp://www.************/sports/123/b/happy.gif
http://www.************/sports/131/b/happy.gifhttp://www.************/sports/133/b/happy.gif
 
Ron said:
This is the same reasoning i used when i backed the Crows to beat North a little while back at Etihad, then North pumped them.

Not sure i can convince myself to use that reason again, although a score of 41.5 is not much less than what the Saints usually score, so be the Crows at the line.
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The Crows line is 41.5. If you take away the chance of the Crows actually winning, the Saints at 1-39 is 2.52.

Extra 60c on the dollar for taking the crows winning out of the equation, and giving up 2 points.
 
Vince Masuka said:
I am not sure you understand the concept.

It was not an exercise in trying to be the most accurate. It is trying to find value. How do you find value if you are the most accurate to what the bookies offer?

It is about finding chinks in the bookies prices, not trying to get closest to their markets.
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Your right it is good you give constructive feedback. Would you say there is a middle point where your odds become to inaccurate to be a reliable source of value. What I mean is if the system you are using is too accurate then like you said there will be no value and it won't tell you what you should bet on. Some people had carlton and Essendon as almost 50/50 I mean that is almost double that odds that you can take carlton for. Wouldn't you question why your system gave you such different odds ? I would expect that a system should give you no more then 50% better / worse odds then the bookies to tell you what value is. So say having Carlton at $1.68 (half of .45 is .22.5 - rounding up 23 + 45 = .68).
 
Resarenco said:
Would you say there is a middle point where your odds become to inaccurate to be a reliable source of value. What I mean is if the system you are using is too accurate then like you said there will be no value and it won't tell you what you should bet on.
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Nobody knows how accurate their odds are until the round is over. If you're coming up with inaccurate odds every week (evidenced by losing all your bets) then you have a problem, but there's no such thing as "too inaccurate" until the round is over. It's about setting the prices as you think they should be and becoming increasingly accurate each week by doing so.
 
Resarenco said:
Your right it is good you give constructive feedback. Would you say there is a middle point where your odds become to inaccurate to be a reliable source of value. What I mean is if the system you are using is too accurate then like you said there will be no value and it won't tell you what you should bet on. Some people had carlton and Essendon as almost 50/50 I mean that is almost double that odds that you can take carlton for. Wouldn't you question why your system gave you such different odds ? I would expect that a system should give you no more then 50% better / worse odds then the bookies to tell you what value is. So say having Carlton at $1.68 (half of .45 is .22.5 - rounding up 23 + 45 = .68).
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I don't use a system to get my odds though. The only systematic part of it is the staking.

I back my odds over the bookmakers odds, so when I see a big discrepancy in my favour, it doesn't hold me back. Having said that I am happy with how I see the games, as I have been doing it for a while. If someone is just starting out like this, they need to base their bets on how confident they are with their markets.

Like I initially said, it takes practice. Once you have the confidence in your abilities to set markets, the price differentials should not matter at all, the bigger the better at that point.
 
Round 19:

North Melbourne 5.10
Carlton 1.24

Western Bulldogs 2.35
West Coast 1.72

Geelong 1.08
Melbourne 12.50

Gold Coast 7.50
St. Kilda 1.14

Fremantle 2.50
Hawthorn 1.67

Collingwood 1.12
Essendon 9.00

Adelaide 2.30
Port Adelaide 1.76
 
North Melbourne 2.70
Carlton 1.58

Western Bulldogs 2.27
West Coast 1.78

Geelong 1.11
Melbourne 10.00

Gold Coast 12.50
St Kilda 1.08

Fremantle 2.43
Hawthorn 1.69

Collingwood 1.17
Essendon 6.66

Adelaide 1.88
Port Adelaide 2.13
 

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