F1 F1 2024 thread

[Vader]

I'd still be putting an asterisk along side Perez.
The way I see it, Red Bull confirming he'll see out the remainder of 2024 has nothing to do with 2025. He would need to improve significantly in the remaining 10 races to retain the seat. If Red Bull don't win the constructors, I'd say he's definitely out the door.
I suspect his reportedly large sponsorships and that the Mexican GP is in this half of the schedule (those two factors are intertwined) have saved his bacon for this year.
I can't see Red Bull putting themselves in this position again in 2025.

He's contracted for 2025 & 2026.

Their reasons for retaining him in 2025 are the same as they are for the back half of 2024 - $$$$.

All indications are that they are willing to sacrifice the CC (which they almost certainly will), to keep the sponsorship $$$ he brings to the table.

The Mexican GP is still 6 GPs away. I doubt they would carry him that long, only to drop him. If they were ever going to drop him, then now is the time they would have done it. They chose not to.

They're not going to wait until the end of the year to sack him, because all of the alternative drivers will be contracted to other teams by then. Sainz signed with Williams overnight, and I expect the remaining 4 vacancies to be filled before the F1 caravan arrives in the Netherlands. If we assume that Bottas goes to Alpine, and Ricciardo to Sauber, then their options would be down to Guanyu/Sargeant/Magnussen or a rookie.

 

[99 Problems]

I'd still be putting an asterisk along side Perez.
The way I see it, Red Bull confirming he'll see out the remainder of 2024 has nothing to do with 2025. He would need to improve significantly in the remaining 10 races to retain the seat. If Red Bull don't win the constructors, I'd say he's definitely out the door.
I suspect his reportedly large sponsorships and that the Mexican GP is in this half of the schedule (those two factors are intertwined) have saved his bacon for this year.
I can't see Red Bull putting themselves in this position again in 2025.

Pretty much agree with this. The $$ help for sure but I think this is about buying some more time. Ideally they’d want Perez to find his form in these last races, he keeps the main seat next season and Lawson can replace Danny Ric.

If Perez finishes the season poorly then he will not be there in 2025, but they aren’t rushed into making a decision on who goes in. In this situation I think it becomes more likely Lawson goes straight into the main seat. Then maybe another season of Ric and Yuki but they’d be keen to get someone into the VARB that they actually see moving into the main team.

 

[Vader]

Pretty much agree with this. The $$ help for sure but I think this is about buying some more time. Ideally they’d want Perez to find his form in these last races, he keeps the main seat next season and Lawson can replace Danny Ric.

If Perez finishes the season poorly then he will not be there in 2025, but they aren’t rushed into making a decision on who goes in. In this situation I think it becomes more likely Lawson goes straight into the main seat. Then maybe another season of Ric and Yuki but they’d be keen to get someone into the VARB that they actually see moving into the main team.

The problem is that the driver market is happening NOW, and everyone worth having will be contracted in 3 months time (i.e. by the Mexican GP).

Lawson's contract says he becomes a Free Agent if they don't give him a contract by September. They definitely won't want to lose him, so it's only a matter of time before he's announced as Tsunoda's partner at VCARB next year.

Ricciardo now knows that his window at Red Bull is probably closed, so he needs to start talking seriously with Sauber immediately, as they're his only realistic option for remaining in F1.

If they're willing to sacrifice the 2024 CC in the name of Checo's $$$$ and some extra wind tunnel time, then I can't see why they'd ditch him for 2025, given that they won't have any options for replacing him by then anyway.

Checo appears to be in the same category as Tsunoda - unsackable, regardless of how badly they perform. Tsunoda is tied to Honda, who supply the Red Bull engines. Checo brings so many sponsorship $$$$ to the table that they can't afford to get rid of him.

 

[happy_eagle]

With Perez staying, I can see Daniel getting cut from VCARB later this week for Lawson.

 

[DamoESP]

Also dont forget, even if RBR drop to second in the WCC and the sponsorship $$$ Perez brings in is probably more than the loss in prize money....the kicker is that they will get additional wind tunnel time coming second rather than first, which may be a bigger factor than the $$

 

[Vader]

With Perez staying, I can see Daniel getting cut from VCARB later this week for Lawson.

... and signing with Sauber 2 days later.

 

[happy_eagle]

... and signing with Sauber 2 days later.

I don't think he will sign with a team like Sauber, and I don't think Sauber would be particularly interested in him.

I think they will look for a young driver to pair with Hulkenberg.

Ricciardo's only shot was to perform in the VCARB and get promoted to RB. If that's not going to happen (still not off the cards for 2025), he will be done in F1.

 

[Vader]

I don't think he will sign with a team like Sauber, and I don't think Sauber would be particularly interested in him.

I think they will look for a young driver to pair with Hulkenberg.

Ricciardo's only shot was to perform in the VCARB and get promoted to RB. If that's not going to happen (still not off the cards for 2025), he will be done in F1.

If he's forced out of VCARB then Sauber is literally his only option -

• Mercedes will be signing Antonelli.
• VCARB will be signing Lawson (which is the reason for Ricciardo leaving in the first place).
• Alpine is not an option, given his history with the team

There are only 4 seats available for 2025, and 3 of them are non-options for Ricciardo.

Whether Sauber would be interested is a reasonable question. They were chasing Sainz hard, so I don't think they're wedded to the idea of getting a young driver. Assuming Bottas signs with Alpine, then their other alternatives are Guanyu/Sargeant/Magnussen or a rookie. Given those choices, it's hard to see them going past Ricciardo.

Ricciardo will be down to 2 options as soon as VCARB announce Lawson - Sauber, or out of F1 completely.

 

[happy_eagle]

If he's forced out of VCARB then Sauber is literally his only option -

Not his only option

or out of F1 completely.

This was my original point. If he's not in VCARB (and not promoted to RB) he's done in F1 in my opinion.

If I were Sauber, I'd pair Hulkenberg with a rookie.
Pourchaire, Doohan, Drugovich or Hadjar. I'd even consider throwing Schumacher or Fittipaldi a lifeline.

 

[Barrybran]

Not his only option


This was my original point. If he's not in VCARB (and not promoted to RB) he's done in F1 in my opinion.

If I were Sauber, I'd pair Hulkenberg with a rookie.
Pourchaire, Doohan, Drugovich or Hadjar. I'd even consider throwing Schumacher or Fittipaldi a lifeline.

Schumacher wouldn't be a bad shout. It would be something Audi could sell.

 

[happy_eagle]

Schumacher wouldn't be a bad shout. It would be something Audi could sell.

Yeh, I feel like he was a bit hard done by in a shit Haas.

 

[The Flying Belgian]

I might be missing something, but the wording from RBR has all the hallmarks of Checo being absolutely on his last chance. They may as well have said "Checo has our full support".

 

[Vader]

Yeh, I feel like he was a bit hard done by in a shit Haas.

hehehe - hard done by in a shit Haas, so he moves to an even shitter Sauber.

 

[DrZaius]

I might be missing something, but the wording from RBR has all the hallmarks of Checo being absolutely on his last chance. They may as well have said "Checo has our full support".

I guess most of the general public just assumed he was already on his last chance

 

[happy_eagle]

hehehe - hard done by in a shit Haas, so he moves to an even shitter Sauber.

Next year maybe, but who knows what Audi have planned for 2026.

 

[Vader]

Next year maybe, but who knows what Audi have planned for 2026.

Fair call. Almost anything can happen with the introduction of new regulations.

 

[The Flying Belgian]

I guess most of the general public just assumed he was already on his last chance

To me it basically reads "you've done well on these tracks in the past, if you don't go close to matching..."

 

[99 Problems]

The problem is that the driver market is happening NOW, and everyone worth having will be contracted in 3 months time (i.e. by the Mexican GP).

Lawson's contract says he becomes a Free Agent if they don't give him a contract by September. They definitely won't want to lose him, so it's only a matter of time before he's announced as Tsunoda's partner at VCARB next year.

Ricciardo now knows that his window at Red Bull is probably closed, so he needs to start talking seriously with Sauber immediately, as they're his only realistic option for remaining in F1.

If they're willing to sacrifice the 2024 CC in the name of Checo's $$$$ and some extra wind tunnel time, then I can't see why they'd ditch him for 2025, given that they won't have any options for replacing him by then anyway.

Checo appears to be in the same category as Tsunoda - unsackable, regardless of how badly they perform. Tsunoda is tied to Honda, who supply the Red Bull engines. Checo brings so many sponsorship $$$$ to the table that they can't afford to get rid of him.

If Lawson is the alternate to Perez they don’t need to worry about the driver market. He knows he has a drive within RB, if Perez stays he’s in the VCARB and if he goes he’s in the main team.

This year it’s not an issue but next year they can’t have a non-factor in the other car the way things are tracking. It might cost them a constructors championship this year but next year it would become the drivers championship at risk and they won’t accept that. He’s lucky Max dominated the early season.

 

[happy_eagle]

Imagine a K-Mag and Max driver pairing at Red Bull

 

[Not Important]

... and signing with Sauber 2 days later.

sadly, i think danny ric is cooked. unless there's a remarkable turnaround during the last part of the season.

 

[99 Problems]

With Perez staying, I can see Daniel getting cut from VCARB later this week for Lawson.

Do they have another driver they could promote along with Lawson for 2025? It sucks for Daniel but the only reason I wouldn’t make the change now is what if Perez shows no improvement and they need to promote Lawson, have they got someone else ready for the VCARB seat?

If they can easily fill that seat as well then as sad as it is for him it makes sense for Danny Ric to have already driven his last F1 race.

 

[Vader]

If Lawson is the alternate to Perez they don’t need to worry about the driver market. He knows he has a drive within RB, if Perez stays he’s in the VCARB and if he goes he’s in the main team.

They're not putting Lawson straight into an RB - he's going to be driving the VCARB next year, alongside Tsunoda.

The VCARB line-up is pretty much settled. The only question is what happens with the 2nd RB seat?

This year it’s not an issue but next year they can’t have a non-factor in the other car the way things are tracking. It might cost them a constructors championship this year but next year it would become the drivers championship at risk and they won’t accept that. He’s lucky Max dominated the early season.

They're obviously willing to accept it, given that they're almost certain to lose the CC this year (to McLaren) - and they still didn't give Perez the shove. Perez allegedly brings in $33M in sponsorship, which basically pays Verstappen's salary. Lose Perez, and they may lose Verstappen as well!

What makes you think that they will see things differently in 2025, compared to now (i.e. the summer break in 2024)?

Do you think their appetite for bad results will change? They're not batting an eyelid at finishing 2nd in the CC this year, so why would they think differently about 2025?

Perez' poor performance rarely impacts Max directly. Yes, it would be nice for him to have a tail gunner occasionally, but Max has rarely needed one - and Perez was rarely in a position to provide it anyway. Max's chance of winning the 2025 WDC rely much more on the car than they do on Perez' support (or lack thereof).

 

[happy_eagle]

Do they have another driver they could promote along with Lawson for 2025? It sucks for Daniel but the only reason I wouldn’t make the change now is what if Perez shows no improvement and they need to promote Lawson, have they got someone else ready for the VCARB seat?

If they can easily fill that seat as well then as sad as it is for him it makes sense for Danny Ric to have already driven his last F1 race.

They could retain Ricciardo as the backup/sim driver and have him as the 25 fallback for Sergio I guess ?

 

[Vader]

sadly, i think danny ric is cooked. unless there's a remarkable turnaround during the last part of the season.

He's outperformed Yuki in 4 of the last 6 races. There may be life in the old dog yet.

The question is whether Sauber want a rookie to partner Hulkenberg. We're already looking at having at least 3 rookies on the grid in 2025 (Bearman, Antonelli, Lawson). I'm not sure that Sauber will be looking to add a 4th.

But I do agree it's either Sauber or nothing (i.e. out of F1) for Ricciardo next year.

We'll probably know soon, as I doubt VCARB will wait much longer before signing Lawson.

 

[Vader]

They could retain Ricciardo as the backup/sim driver and have him as the 25 fallback for Sergio I guess ?

Ricciardo would probably take that, given it's essentially what he was doing in 2023.

I just don't see them knifing Perez, given that they refused to do so last night. The sponsorship dollars he brings in are just too much for them to refuse, and essentially make him unsackable.