F1 F1 2024 thread

[Jatz]

I'd be staggered if Max actually goes anywhere else.

 

[Vader]

I think Ric is 90% gone from the sport in 2025.

But I do think there's still a way he retains a seat in 2025.

There are still a few left and Ric is experienced and marketable.

eg:
- Merc. If they miss Max they're likely to go with Antonelli. But he's a kid. In a time they need development. Russell will need to shoulder that load. I think it's risky for them. It would make sense to put someone like Ric in the seat for a year pre-2026 for further development then reassess.

Alpine. Unlikely but same reasoning. I think this is no chance though due to past history but I think there's been enough turnover in this company to perhaps make history irrelevant.

Willliams - Sainz obviously the main competitor. Then maybe Bottas?

RB - Lawson has this wrapped up for 2025 so no look in there.

Haas - Ocon and ....? Maybe Bearman but Haas really need to move away from rookie drivers. They've looked much better this year with 2x experienced drivers. There's room for Ric here. I think they'd happily take him. Depends if Ric wants to ride around at the back or move onto something else.

Sauber (audi). Development and marketability make sense. 2026 opportunities.

Main competitors:
Ocon - He is not advertising himself well at the moment
Bottas - Performance hasn't been great. I think he'll retire?
Sainz - Gets first pick of the above list.
Antonelli - Young but gets the Merc seat if they want him.
Lawson - RB seat is his for 2025.
Bearman - Haas seat.

I count 7x seats available and 7likely drivers for seats (incl Ric).
Zhou / Sargent / Magnussen to lose their seats and not return.

Except that Ricciardo himself says that he's not talking to any other teams. For him it's VCARB or bust - there is no Plan B (and none of the other teams would take him anyway).
https://speedcafe.com/ricciardo-not-focused-on-lawson-f1-threat/

 

[Neale4brownlow]

Holding on until the very last I guess in case something crazy happens with Max/Red Bull/Kimi/Mercedes.

Sounds like Alpine will be getting Mercedes engines from 2026 which is more appealing than Williams.

Alpine are a proven basket case regardless of the equipment.

 

[Neale4brownlow]

I'd be staggered if Max actually goes anywhere else.

Norris has challenged him the past 3 races now. And a real chance of beating him all 3 times.

If the pack closes on Max, and the dollars come from Merc... why not?

Perez' performance is another indicator to max that if he leaves then whoever fills his seat at RB is not necessarily going to be any competition for him.

 

[happy_eagle]

I'd be staggered if Max actually goes anywhere else.

For next year yes. He'd be crazy to go anywhere else in the current regs.

For 2026. I can see him leaving

 

[Vader]

For next year yes. He'd be crazy to go anywhere else in the current regs.

For 2026. I can see him leaving

I can see quite a few driver changes happening in 2026, when the new regs kick in. Honda will be switching from Red Bull to Aston Martin, so that will spell the end of Tsunoda's time at VCARB. Perez has a 1+1 deal, and it's becoming increasingly hard to see him achieving the trigger conditions now that the Red Bull's car dominance has gone. I'm sure there will be other changes as well.

 

[gaskin]

Also, rumours floating around that Danica Patrick has been sacked by Sky Sports......

We can only hope.

 

[happy_eagle]

We can only hope.

She seems to be the only commentator that is truly universally disliked.
The fact she's a conspiracy nutter probably doesn't help.

 

[Vader]

So... here's what we know about the 2025 driver lineups:

Aston Martin: Alonso & Stroll
Ferrari: LeClerc & Hamilton
Red Bull: Verstappen & Perez
McLaren: Norris & Piastri
Mercedes: Russell
Alpine: Gasly
VCARB: Tsunoda
Audi: Hulkenberg
Williams: Albon
Haas:

The current drivers without a seat are: Sainz, Ricciardo, Sargeant, Ocon, Magnussen, Bottas, Zhou
Rookies likely to be promoted to full-time F1 seats: Lawson, Antonelli, Bearman, Doohan (less likely)

The key to the puzzle is Sainz - he's pretty much guaranteed a gig, but where will he land? Speculation mostly centres on Williams & Audi. Once he makes a decision, the rest of the jigsaw will fall quickly into place.

So, of the remaining vacancies:
Mercedes - Antonelli appears the most likely candidate, with nobody else strongly linked.
VCARB - The seat is almost certainly Lawson's, though apparently he has interest from Audi if (inexplicably) VCARB don't get their act together in time.
Audi - Probably Sainz. Ocon the most likely if Sainz goes with Williams.
Williams - Hoping for Sainz, with Bottas as their backup option.
Haas - One of the seats is likely to be filled by Bearman, on loan from Ferrari. Bottas & Ocon both linked to the second seat.
Alpine - Bottas, Zhou and Doohan are all in the frame.

In reality there are just 1x Alpine and 1x Haas seats up for grabs, plus whichever of Audi/Williams not chosen by Sainz.

It's pretty much impossible to see Sargeant being offered a seat, and Ricciardo himself says it's VCARB or bust (despite having no chance of holding onto his seat at VCARB). There are plenty of articles speculating about the driver movements, but Magnussen's name is notably absent from every list of "driver X has been linked to seat Y" discussions - it appears that his time is up too.

It's likely that the remaining seats will be filled by Bottas, Zhou and Ocon, with Doohan as a smokey. Almost any permutation is possible, other than the drivers returning to their current teams.

 

[gaskin]

Alpine have made a late charge for Sainz which is apparently why Williams haven't announced him yet despite heavy rumours they were going to at the Spanish GP last week.

 

[DamoESP]

Amazed that Sainz hasn't accepted the Williams offer yet as its so far been reported as the best deal, in terms of length and also get out clause.

Word that the Audi deal was a minimum of 3 years which means if they botch the 2026 regs (which lets be honest, I fail to see how Sauber/Audi are going to be any good in the first few years) he is stuck there until the end of 2027, where as with the Williams deal is 4 years with a get out clause for him after 2 years, so he can leave at the end of 2026 when he can see who nailed the new regs and also when a lot of other driver contracts are expiring so there will be plenty of options.

EDIT: and Alpine are just forever terrible. You only go there for a pay day.

 

[Jatz]

She seems to be the only commentator that is truly universally disliked.
The fact she's a conspiracy nutter probably doesn't help.

Wonder whether she picked that up from dating Aaron Rodgers, he's an absolute nutter as well.

 

[gaskin]

Wonder whether she picked that up from dating Aaron Rodgers, he's an absolute nutter as well.

It is probably what attracted them to each other in the first place.

 

[DamoESP]

In b4 Sainz ends up without a seat in 2025 because he took too long to make a decision (Very unlikely but still haha)

Carlos Sainz sends Williams clear message over F1 future: “I’m going to take all the time I need”

Carlos Sainz isn't going to rush into making a decision over his F1 future.

www.crash.net

 

[Forward Press]

I'd be staggered if Max actually goes anywhere else.

For next year yes. He'd be crazy to go anywhere else in the current regs.

For 2026. I can see him leaving

I can envision him winning 8, and then Ferrari come knocking...

 

[Forward Press]

Amazed that Sainz hasn't accepted the Williams offer yet as its so far been reported as the best deal, in terms of length and also get out clause.

Word that the Audi deal was a minimum of 3 years which means if they botch the 2026 regs (which lets be honest, I fail to see how Sauber/Audi are going to be any good in the first few years) he is stuck there until the end of 2027, where as with the Williams deal is 4 years with a get out clause for him after 2 years, so he can leave at the end of 2026 when he can see who nailed the new regs and also when a lot of other driver contracts are expiring so there will be plenty of options.

EDIT: and Alpine are just forever terrible. You only go there for a pay day.

Ricciardo and Hulkenberg proved that sitting it out can pay off especially if you are an obviously talented and experienced driver.

If I was Sainz maybe the year off could so some good - who knows, Red Bull might finally turf Perez if he keeps this up in 2025.

 

[Festerz]

She seems to be the only commentator that is truly universally disliked.
The fact she's a conspiracy nutter probably doesn't help.

Conspiracy nutters generally find refuge at Sky but not in the F1 broadcast area.

No doubt her podcasts drawing attention to the lizard people living amongst us has made even them a tad nervous.

Those who haven't noticed the lizard people uprising at F1 races have not been paying attention.

 

[Nuggs Bunny]

I can understand why Sainz is trying to delay the situation as long as he can - all his options are shit. Sainz is probably the best number 2 driver on the grid at the moment, he's definitely not the fastest but he's consistent and understands how to manage a race. For RBR to persist with a cooked Perez and Mercedes to opt for a very, very green Antonelli over someone that can make an immediate difference to the team is surprising to say the least.

Sauber, Williams or Enstone...

 

[Nuggs Bunny]

EDIT: and Alpine are just forever terrible. You only go there for a pay day.

The way Renault treats their F1 team is the equivalent of Jos leaving Max at the gas station.

 

[dazbroncos]

There absolutely is.

That team exists as a feeder team for the Red Bull. Perez is now signed up again, Daniel won't therefore be going back into that seat and is therefore superfluous for them. Makes so much more sense to let Lawson develop in it and then promote him to Sergio's seat when the time lines up.

And yet ADR finished 2 spots behind Checo in an infinitely more shit car.
ADR not dead - yet.

 

[skam85]

The way Renault treats their F1 team is the equivalent of Jos leaving Max at the gas station.

Minus that translating into success

 

[gaskin]

And yet ADR finished 2 spots behind Checo in an infinitely more shit car.
ADR not dead - yet.

To be fair to Checo he did have a decent sized hole in the sidepod which goes some way to explaining not being able to beat the Haas.

 

[Vader]

To be fair to Checo he did have a decent sized hole in the sidepod which goes some way to explaining not being able to beat the Haas.

No sympathy. That hole in the sidepod was the result of him playing Mario Karts, ramming Piastri off the track. It's self-inflicted damage, so he doesn't get any sympathy points from me.

 

[Jatz]

And yet ADR finished 2 spots behind Checo in an infinitely more shit car.
ADR not dead - yet.

He's well and truly dead. Matter of when, not if.

 

[Not Important]

Norris has challenged him the past 3 races now. And a real chance of beating him all 3 times.

If the pack closes on Max, and the dollars come from Merc... why not?

Perez' performance is another indicator to max that if he leaves then whoever fills his seat at RB is not necessarily going to be any competition for him.

internal politics too. verstappen’s old man seems to run his son’s life and the old man is after horner. it’s about time max grew a pair.