I read that article a couple of years ago and I've been using a value based system in AFL Fantasy the last couple of years.
But there's very little information around about applying VBD to AFL Fantasy. I have been making my own spreadsheet from scratch each year. There are a few sources who are clearly using some sort of VBD system to come up with a draft list (e.g. The Traders, Footy Prophet) but they are not transparent about their valuations or what size league they are assuming so you really have to roll your own.
This year I used a slightly improved system than I have in the past. Previously, I just predicted an average score for each player and used that to calculate value over replacement player (VORP). But this meant I had guys high on my list who were susceptible to injury.
This season, for each player, I predicted an average score and a number of games. I based the games prediction on last year and overall career injury record. Basically assumed a fit footballer who is a regular will play 21 games, and adjusted up or down from that based on current injury status, place in the team, injury history etc.
Then you work out VORP based on a rating of [(predicted avg score) x (predicted games) + (games missed) x (avg of best undrafted player)]/22. So say an older guy may average 85 but will be managed to only play 15 games for the season. He gets a rating of (15 x 85 + 7 x 65)/22.
VBD is really useful in my league because we have 14 teams and 2 rucks each, meaning the value of rucks is sky high. At least half the teams in my league end up without two first choice ruckmen. My system means I usually end up getting my 2 rucks in my first few picks.
Love this thinking. I guess it's basically about putting in as much information as possible and then bringing it all back to a simple list you can use on draft day. I think this season even more then others rucks are going to be hot. If Martin and Goldy are gone by the time it's your pick though is it worth jumping the gun.
Out of curiosity do you put some rookies into your list? Or players returning from injury with no average from 2015 (JOM etc) and where do you start with predicting their average because literally could be anything. I also need to factor in injuries more because i've missed a lot of football myself so i'm not all over who is going to be struggling come R1.