Fantasy Elite

[C_Turn]

I read that article a couple of years ago and I've been using a value based system in AFL Fantasy the last couple of years.

But there's very little information around about applying VBD to AFL Fantasy. I have been making my own spreadsheet from scratch each year. There are a few sources who are clearly using some sort of VBD system to come up with a draft list (e.g. The Traders, Footy Prophet) but they are not transparent about their valuations or what size league they are assuming so you really have to roll your own.

This year I used a slightly improved system than I have in the past. Previously, I just predicted an average score for each player and used that to calculate value over replacement player (VORP). But this meant I had guys high on my list who were susceptible to injury.

This season, for each player, I predicted an average score and a number of games. I based the games prediction on last year and overall career injury record. Basically assumed a fit footballer who is a regular will play 21 games, and adjusted up or down from that based on current injury status, place in the team, injury history etc.

Then you work out VORP based on a rating of [(predicted avg score) x (predicted games) + (games missed) x (avg of best undrafted player)]/22. So say an older guy may average 85 but will be managed to only play 15 games for the season. He gets a rating of (15 x 85 + 7 x 65)/22.

VBD is really useful in my league because we have 14 teams and 2 rucks each, meaning the value of rucks is sky high. At least half the teams in my league end up without two first choice ruckmen. My system means I usually end up getting my 2 rucks in my first few picks.

Love this thinking. I guess it's basically about putting in as much information as possible and then bringing it all back to a simple list you can use on draft day. I think this season even more then others rucks are going to be hot. If Martin and Goldy are gone by the time it's your pick though is it worth jumping the gun.

Out of curiosity do you put some rookies into your list? Or players returning from injury with no average from 2015 (JOM etc) and where do you start with predicting their average because literally could be anything. I also need to factor in injuries more because i've missed a lot of football myself so i'm not all over who is going to be struggling come R1.

 

[blackers]

Love this thinking. I guess it's basically about putting in as much information as possible and then bringing it all back to a simple list you can use on draft day. I think this season even more then others rucks are going to be hot. If Martin and Goldy are gone by the time it's your pick though is it worth jumping the gun.

Out of curiosity do you put some rookies into your list? Or players returning from injury with no average from 2015 (JOM etc) and where do you start with predicting their average because literally could be anything. I also need to factor in injuries more because i've missed a lot of football myself so i'm not all over who is going to be struggling come R1.

I generally avoid rookies in draft comps. In our 14-team league, the lowest drafted mid will average about 75, the lowest drafted fwd and back about 65. Look at the rookie numbers for Rockliff, Judd, Swan, generally 75 is the absolute ceiling even for a future superstar in their first year. Plus these days most rookies get managed and rested. I did struggle with maybe getting Callum Mills for my last bench spot but in the end went with Bradley Hill. Mills will obviously be the better player but even if he has a stellar debut season, Hill will probably score more just averaging 75 like he always does.

That is the good thing about my system, you separate the question of a player's average when they play from the question of how many games they'll play. Guys returning from injury, I look at their pre-injury average as a guide. Unless they've changed clubs or role, they should return to their average or maybe a bit below. But I wouldn't generally back them to play a full season - even if they are looking good in the pre-season, there's a risk there. So I'm happy to back Liberatore to average 100 but I'm only predicting him to play 17 games. Not that I'm actually expecting him to play 17 games, I am pricing in the risk of a recurrence as far as I can. So I'd work out his rating as (100 x 17 + 75 x 5)/22. This also works with guys you know will be managed for reasons of age (rookies and veterans) and for that matter the Essendon top-up players.

Where a guy is injured now, it is easier. For Roughead, he'll be lucky to play 10 games so I worked out his rating accordingly. At some point though you also have to use commonsense - picking Roughead means carrying him on your bench for the first 12 rounds, are you happy with the risk that you'll end up playing a guy short one week because you only have three active bench spots?

 

[dave88]

I've got pick 10 (and 11) in a 10 man draft (captains on, 5-6-2-5-4). How would you approach this pick?

I figure by the time it gets to me rocky, stef Martin, pendles, goldy, GAJ, Dusty and probably Montagna will all be off the board (plus 2 more). I figure if any of those players are left I'll obviously swoop on them, otherwise what do you think is the best strategy?

Probably too early to take a ruck like Jacobs/Blics. Barlow, JPK, Hanners, Steven, Lewis, Hodge, T Mitchell, Swan, Lewis, Dangerfield are probably the best options.

How would people rank these players? And what positions should I be picking (I'm assuming mid/fwd unless something crazy good is available).

Cheers

 

[dave88]

I've got pick 10 (and 11) in a 10 man draft (captains on, 5-6-2-5-4). How would you approach this pick?

I figure by the time it gets to me rocky, stef Martin, pendles, goldy, GAJ, Dusty and probably Montagna will all be off the board (plus 2 more). I figure if any of those players are left I'll obviously swoop on them, otherwise what do you think is the best strategy?

Probably too early to take a ruck like Jacobs/Blics. Barlow, JPK, Hanners, Steven, Lewis, Hodge, T Mitchell, Swan, Lewis, Dangerfield are probably the best options.

How would people rank these players? And what positions should I be picking (I'm assuming mid/fwd unless something crazy good is available).

Cheers

Should've mentioned it's AFL Fantasy Elite

 

[Wrangeroos]

Should've mentioned it's AFL Fantasy Elite

Our top 20 in a 9 team league (ultimate footy with 1 bye team, no bye round matchups and 2 weeks of finals:

1.Tom Rockliff BL - C
2.Stefan Martin BL - R
3.Gary Ablett GC - C
4.Todd Goldstein NM - R
5.Scott Pendlebury CW - C
6.Patrick Dangerfield GE - C
7.Jack Steven SK - C
8.Dustin Martin RI - C,F
9.Nat Fyfe FR - C
10.Dan Hannebery SY - C
11.Jordan Lewis HW - C
12.Michael Barlow FR - C,F
13.David Mundy FR - C
14.Dayne Beams BL - C
15.Leigh Montagna SK - C,F
16.Andrew Gaff WC - C
17.Josh Kennedy SY - C
18.Tom Mitchell SY - C

Drafting prior to Beams injury.

To me the big smokey is Swan. 100% chance of forward status round 6. I picked him up round 3 (20th pick). Fyfe also likely for forward status.

 

[Ess_don]

I

Love your strategy mate, this year I've done a more basic method of what you've done and I've just listed on excel a list ranking all the players by position in regards to how I value them. So draft day, I can just cross them off as we go along.

Predicting averages and games played is a great idea to further enhance the rankings as right now I just go with gut feel and Nab form.
ie: Rucks: Stef, Goldy, Jacobs, Gawn, (clear top 4) then maybe NN, Blics..etc

Our draft is also a 14 man league so rucks will be a premium and I think Ill have to spend my first two picks (13 & 16) on rucks but also afraid of overspending and wasting say #16 on a Kreuzer :/
Original plan was to spend 1 of my first picks on a ruck then go best available as I know a Barlow/Shaw/gun mid will slide, but whispers from the other coaches are that there will defs be a ruck rush early (pick 1 & 2 are already publicly declared locked in Stef and Goldy)

Out of curiosity, what pick do you have first up and who do you have your eye on?
Also keen to hear your opinion on your ruck ranking after the top 4?

 

[malteaser]

Ok guys wanna join a league tonight at 9pm 8 side full list you might even want to use it as a Mock draft. Lets have some fun and try your strategy code is LKAEFWWZ

 

[FistSmashFight]

Lads I assume most of us have smashed our drafts and like me are looking for something to pass the time till AFL season.

Who do we think is in line for DPP come round 6?

Dane Swan M -> F/M?

Another could be Hodge picking up back status, Fyfe or Gray picking up FWD (though I'd deem this less likely), Mundy/Hill/Griffen/Polec/Sidey are the types of midfielders to roll back across the halfback line.

Another is potentially Guthrie who is a proven scorer when not given a job and has expressed interest in playing in defence.

Any one have any others??

 

[Carey84]

Lads I assume most of us have smashed our drafts and like me are looking for something to pass the time till AFL season.

Who do we think is in line for DPP come round 6?

Dane Swan M -> F/M?

Another could be Hodge picking up back status, Fyfe or Gray picking up FWD (though I'd deem this less likely), Mundy/Hill/Griffen/Polec/Sidey are the types of midfielders to roll back across the halfback line.

Another is potentially Guthrie who is a proven scorer when not given a job and has expressed interest in playing in defence.

Any one have any others??

It will be interesting to see if Picken makes his way down back again, or Hunter FWD? Also Pendles across HB might give him DEF at some stage (unlikely I think).

I've picked up pick #1 in our fantasy elite draft this sunday, 8 players and 3/4/1/3 fields, captain turned ON. I'll be giving up martin/goldy, i'm thinking of grabbing Rocky with 1st pick, then just keep tracking the ruck departments from there as to when I nab a ruck. Maybe target someone like hodge and either a premium DEF or gawn/blics/mummy type RUC if he slides to 16, but will have to play that by ear.

Or should I go with martin as first?

 

[blackers]

Love your strategy mate, this year I've done a more basic method of what you've done and I've just listed on excel a list ranking all the players by position in regards to how I value them. So draft day, I can just cross them off as we go along.

Predicting averages and games played is a great idea to further enhance the rankings as right now I just go with gut feel and Nab form.
ie: Rucks: Stef, Goldy, Jacobs, Gawn, (clear top 4) then maybe NN, Blics..etc

Our draft is also a 14 man league so rucks will be a premium and I think Ill have to spend my first two picks (13 & 16) on rucks but also afraid of overspending and wasting say #16 on a Kreuzer :/
Original plan was to spend 1 of my first picks on a ruck then go best available as I know a Barlow/Shaw/gun mid will slide, but whispers from the other coaches are that there will defs be a ruck rush early (pick 1 & 2 are already publicly declared locked in Stef and Goldy)

Out of curiosity, what pick do you have first up and who do you have your eye on?
Also keen to hear your opinion on your ruck ranking after the top 4?

My draft was a few weeks ago. I did take rucks with my first two picks although that wasn't necessarily the plan. I had pick 8 in a 14 team league so by the time I picked Martin and Goldstein were gone, as were Rockliff and Ablett. I had Blicavs as my next ruck and got him. My next pick was 20-something, Sam Jacobs was gone so I took Brodie Grundy. In retrospect I am worried I overvalued Blicavs, Geelong has several fit ruckmen this year and may share the load. But he had a good game last week so fingers crossed. I will say it made draft night less stressful to have two quality rucks locked up early.

You have to play it by ear with ruck rushes. If it starts you just have to do what you can. Think about how many picks until your next pick and how stuffed you'd be if there was a run on one position.

After Grundy, my ruck rankings were Nic Nat, Gawn, Lobbe, Mumford, Sinclair, Maric, Nicholls, Kreuzer, Tippett, Sandi, Minson... If we were drafting today I'd bump Gawn up and Lobbe down based on preseason form.

 

[blackers]

It will be interesting to see if Picken makes his way down back again, or Hunter FWD? Also Pendles across HB might give him DEF at some stage (unlikely I think).

I've picked up pick #1 in our fantasy elite draft this sunday, 8 players and 3/4/1/3 fields, captain turned ON. I'll be giving up martin/goldy, i'm thinking of grabbing Rocky with 1st pick, then just keep tracking the ruck departments from there as to when I nab a ruck. Maybe target someone like hodge and either a premium DEF or gawn/blics/mummy type RUC if he slides to 16, but will have to play that by ear.

Or should I go with martin as first?

Yeah with captains turned on it gives a huge boost to fantasy pigs like Rockliff and Ablett. If he averages 125 vs Martin's 115, you've got 20 point advantage over your closest opponent.

 

[blackers]

Lads I assume most of us have smashed our drafts and like me are looking for something to pass the time till AFL season.

Who do we think is in line for DPP come round 6?

Dane Swan M -> F/M?

Another could be Hodge picking up back status, Fyfe or Gray picking up FWD (though I'd deem this less likely), Mundy/Hill/Griffen/Polec/Sidey are the types of midfielders to roll back across the halfback line.

Another is potentially Guthrie who is a proven scorer when not given a job and has expressed interest in playing in defence.

Any one have any others??

Swan and Hodge are the safe ones, the rest are too hard to predict I reckon. Thanks to the interchange cap, there'll be a lot of mids resting forward this season, the ones who are good at it may spend enough time up there to get DPP.

 

[Wrangeroos]

Yeah with captains turned on it gives a huge boost to fantasy pigs like Rockliff and Ablett. If he averages 125 vs Martin's 115, you've got 20 point advantage over your closest opponent.

Doesn't really work like that. The midfielder the Martin owner will grab later will average 100 in comparison to the ruck that will average 80 that the Rocky owner grabs. So it's 330 points each.

 

[CanadianKanga]

Elite cash leagues ... I'd love to sign up for one. I don't have alot of friends who play so I cannot start my own.

Can someone please direct me in the right direction?

 

[FistSmashFight]

Nice lads, some good discussion thrown up there. Think the key to most fantasy drafts is getting on top of positional changes early. A mediocre 90-ave midfielder is suddenly one of the most valuable players in the game when he picks up the DPP and becomes defender eligible (ala Mundy last season).

 

[Carey84]

Well, draft was on Sunday, made a couple mistakes, but I picked Rocky with 1 and Ablett with 16. I'm not complaining! Def is a bit underwhelming, but if Rocky and GAJ can escape injury then they should cover me:

DEF: K Simpson, Duryea, Rich
MID: Rocky, GAJ, Swan, Neale
RUC: Gawn
FWD: M Robinson, Greene, S Gray

BENCH: Zorko, Sloane, Sheridan, Newnes

Hoping for DPP on Newnes to bolster a pretty weak DEF line (comparatively) - there are only 8 coaches. Is that likely? Am hoping for simpson to hit his 80 avg and rich to have a better year now his injury is over (looked a bit soft/outside last season, but better in/under in NAB).

 

[Squall]

Has anyone setup the draft type as commissioner. I've always completed a live draft. What is the benefit of a commissioner draft for someone setting up the league?

 

[Ess_don]

Has anyone setup the draft type as commissioner. I've always completed a live draft. What is the benefit of a commissioner draft for someone setting up the league?

Always been curious of this too.. have heard of mates participating in "offline" drafts where you pick your players as a group then not sure if the commissioner assigns the players as the draft happens or does it after.

Apparently much better as you can have everyone in the same place without worrying about wifi, plenty of banter and even live impulse trading on the spot.
But again never done one but very interested!

Man draft night is so fun.. would love to do another cheeky one but too late I think.
Surprised there wasnt a BF one set up? Guess it would have been hard deciding on a time everyone would be happy with..

 

[juss]

Anyone know when the lockout ends and you are able to bring in new players?

 

[FistSmashFight]

Lockout is open now mate but you might have restricted free agency on in your league and therefore might have another day or so to wait.

Personally looking to pick up Ben Kennedy from the pool. Saw enough from him to suggest he can be a decent scorer as F6 and has the Bombers this week!

 

[Squall]

Being one of the unlucky ones to pick up Swan in the draft. In elite would you keep him on the bench or get rid of him?

 

[vide0n]

Being one of the unlucky ones to pick up Swan in the draft. In elite would you keep him on the bench or get rid of him?

Surely you have to get rid of him? He's gone for so long

 

[FistSmashFight]

Being one of the unlucky ones to pick up Swan in the draft. In elite would you keep him on the bench or get rid of him?

Depends on the size of your benches but you'd have to say it would be a massive call to keep him.

 

[FistSmashFight]

Just scooped Stephen Hill from my free agency pool! Solid 90s average midfielder with the slight chance of DPP!

 

[amazingjoshy]

Love some thoughts on this trade:

Docherty and Walters for Greene, Seedsman and M.Wright