Preview Finals Week 1 - Carlton v Sydney Swans - A Preview Driven By AI

[bedford]

Give us Collingwood next week thanks

And a 1 pointer , sorry don't need the stress

 

[RubbaDuck]

I've analysed all the variables in matches against Carlton in 2023 and 2022. These range from Curnow's marks, to opposition pressure ratings, time inside 50, hitouts to advantage, even flashers running onto the field, as a way to distract Cripps. None of these are reliable indicators.

The one variable that has been 100% consistent in every game where Carlton's been beaten this year is whether the opposing team has a bigger score on the board at exactly the time the full time siren goes and play finishes. Having a bigger score at 3/4 time is generally a good indicator but it's not infallible. It won't always get the win. Every team that's beaten Carlton this year has been ahead at full time.

Horse, if you're reading this, think about it. How is it we 're in the lead at 3/4 time yet still losing games ? It took an errant umpire to get us the win against the Crows - though it's telling that an umpire who makes a big mistake in The Swans favour gets stood down immediately by the AFL. Anyway, don't take my word for it. Have your stats guys check it out before the big game. Then instruct the team accordingly.

 

[SGBeach]

Give us Collingwood next week thanks

I dream of knocking out Carlton then Collingwood (again)

 

[Wolftone]

That's right, which makes it such a shame that he injured himself because I felt Buddy and the swans had finally figured out how to utilise him effectively and then he went and got injured.

We were too Buddy-centric earlier in the year and I think Buddy put too much oressure on himself to score goals that we ended up overcooking it.

It wasn't until he played more of a facilitator role that he actually came into the game more and actually managed to increase his goal scoring output while bringing others into the game.

Exactly. I think coaches when the get a star forward start overusing them. Carlton has Curnow and they go to him with more than 40% entries. If they get smarter and only use him or McKay when in good position then they will get far more benefit from them and from the other forwards like Owies & Martin.

We nos have a forward line that has unpredictable. If we are smart we will identify their two weakest backs and utilise the players who have them. I think our forward line is sensational, very strong. I we finally manage to win clearances regularly and deliver well, our forwards could kick record scores one day.

On CPH2471 using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Wolftone]

And a 1 pointer , sorry don't need the stress

In the last month I have doubled the dose of my statins

On CPH2471 using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[bloodsbigot]

I dream of knocking out Carlton then Collingwood (again)

We'll knock them both out. They're phonies.

 

[Kiama Chris]

In the last month I have doubled the dose of my statins

On CPH2471 using BigFooty.com mobile app

That's your cholesterol sorted. I already take enough beta-blockers that my heart maxes out at 120bpm. Protecting my bypasses.

 

[sthmelb_dimmies]

I dream of knocking out Carlton then Collingwood (again)

wouldn’t even care if Sydney lost the prelim after that. Would be an epic two weeks of finals.

 

[GoTheSwannies]

wouldn’t even care if Sydney lost the prelim after that. Would be an epic two weeks of finals.

That's my pass mark this season. 2 wins

 

[Millky95]

wouldn’t even care if Sydney lost the prelim after that. Would be an epic two weeks of finals.

Sydney to then win a prelim against Port due to a score review in the last minute turning a behind into a goal

 

[caesar88]

I feel like Melbourne are my flag favourites at the moment. I just think with the increase in the contested side of the game in finals, that really plays into the Gawn/Petracca/Oliver/Viney dynamic's hands and I don't think there's a side in the eight with a contested core that's on par with theirs. Last year I think they drank their own bathwater a bit too much but they look hungry AF this year, as evidenced by the fact they beat us up in round 24 in a game they didn't even need to win.

Ironically I would say Carlton would be closest to them in that contested regard. Imagine the confidence we'd take out of this game if we were able to at least halve the contested battle and get the win...

 

[ErrolisGoldun]

I feel like Melbourne are my flag favourites at the moment. I just think with the increase in the contested side of the game in finals, that really plays into the Gawn/Petracca/Oliver/Viney dynamic's hands and I don't think there's a side in the eight with a contested core that's on par with theirs. Last year I think they drank their own bathwater a bit too much but they look hungry AF this year, as evidenced by the fact they beat us up in round 24 in a game they didn't even need to win.

Ironically I would say Carlton would be closest to them in that contested regard. Imagine the confidence we'd take out of this game if we were able to at least halve the contested battle and get the win...

Whoever wins Thursday night will be the flag favourite and there is every chance for a re-match in GF.

Collingwood will be chomping at the bit after finishing on top of the ladder, they are my tip to win tomorrow and the flag. Melbourne have definitely added steel to their game plan last 2mths, very impressed.

Still not convinced by Carlton and it’s rare for a first finals appearance for a team to make a large dent on their first go, eg Prelim or further.

 

[Rhysswans13]

I am quietly confident rain, hail or shine on Friday night. Although it hasn’t been our best season and our 4th quarters are cause for concern, if we bring our best then I believe we can win well.

The side should not be overwhelmed by the occasion as most of them that will play on Friday night played in a Qualifying final and a Grand Final on a sold out MCG 12 months ago.

No disrespect to Carlton who have had a fantastic second half of the year and will be desperate for a finals win but I think we are alot better then our 8th position on the ladder (although we only have ourselves to blame).

For the talent we have in this side, anything less then a win in this game would be disappointing.

 

[Ed_Gein]

Read the stat we haven't beaten Carlton at the MCG since 1918... then looking into it, this Friday will be the 4th time we've played them there since then (1981, 1986, and 2017 were the 3)

Interesting on the surface, but early days it was always at Princes Park or Lake Oval, then later SCG and Docklands.

 

[Dangas]

How good. Managed to get tickets to the game. First time my partner is going to see a game with 90k+ at the G so will be a good experience for her.

Let's go Bloods!

 

[Millky95]

Whoever wins Thursday night will be the flag favourite and there is every chance for a re-match in GF.

Collingwood will be chomping at the bit after finishing on top of the ladder, they are my tip to win tomorrow and the flag. Melbourne have definitely added steel to their game plan last 2mths, very impressed.

Still not convinced by Carlton and it’s rare for a first finals appearance for a team to make a large dent on their first go, eg Prelim or further.

Thursday is the GF in my opinion. Collingwood and Melbourne will beat Port and Brisbane at the MCG but lose to them away from the MCG. So unless there is a massive choke, tomorrow night is the real Grand Final

 

[ErrolisGoldun]

Thursday is the GF in my opinion. Collingwood and Melbourne will beat Port and Brisbane at the MCG but lose to them away from the MCG. So unless there is a massive choke, tomorrow night is the real Grand Final

Great call and agree, got huge ramifications. Will be an intriguing battle if Brisbane or Port do make it, will be super hard to win at the G.

They really need to look at that MCG deal and look to give the team who makes the GF in the highest position the Home ground advantage. The G is as an impressive stadium as you could imagine (and holds 100,000) would be hard for the AFL to give up the $$$, but for the fairness of the comp they need to stop making these generational type deals that clearly support vic based teams.

A lot has changed for the better over the years but this is one that needs to be looked at.

 

[bloodsbigot]

Read the stat we haven't beaten Carlton at the MCG since 1918... then looking into it, this Friday will be the 4th time we've played them there since then (1981, 1986, and 2017 were the 3)

Interesting on the surface, but early days it was always at Princes Park or Lake Oval, then later SCG and Docklands.

Yep. It's a meaningless stat. It's like saying we're undefeated at Lakeside Oval since 1982.

 

[bedford]

Yep. It's a meaningless stat. It's like saying we're undefeated at Lakeside Oval since 1982.

We are good get

 

[SwansProudly]

If we have AI writing our preview, why not a bot predicting the result

"This match-up is quite evenly balanced, with both teams having similar win-loss records. However, Carlton’s recent form and their ability to win comfortably against weaker opponents give them a slight edge. I’d give Carlton a 52 per cent chance of winning. The likely point difference could be around five points in Carlton’s favour"
The Bot

Upsets on the cards: We asked an AI bot to predict every game of this year’s AFL finals series

Forget using a crystal ball, tarot cards or that octopus named Paul. We asked an AI bot to predict how this year’s finals series will unfold, and it came up with some surprising results.

www.theage.com.au

 

[Heeney2Franklin]

If we have AI writing our preview, why not a bot predicting the result

Upsets on the cards: We asked an AI bot to predict every game of this year’s AFL finals series

Forget using a crystal ball, tarot cards or that octopus named Paul. We asked an AI bot to predict how this year’s finals series will unfold, and it came up with some surprising results.

www.theage.com.au

How long till AI can correctly call the outcome of the game.

 

[SwansProudly]

How long till AI can correctly call the outcome of the game.

... so AI stops all those betting ads during the games

 

[caesar88]

Was I seeing things or did I see somewhere that Melican is statistically our best one-on-one defender this year?

I hope Horse doesn't catch wind and bring Melican in over a Fox or something to try and combat Curnow/McKay.

Not saying it would mean Horse & co are panicking, but... it would wreak of panic IMO.

(And I say this as a big Melican fan. It's just too late in the season to be tinkering like that.)

 

[Adnico26Parker]

Was I seeing things or did I see somewhere that Melican is statistically our best one-on-one defender this year?

I hope Horse doesn't catch wind and bring Melican in over a Fox or something to try and combat Curnow/McKay.

Not saying it would mean Horse & co are panicking, but... it would wreak of panic IMO.

(And I say this as a big Melican fan. It's just too late in the season to be tinkering like that.)

Maybe as this week's sub....

 

[Big Blood]

Read the stat we haven't beaten Carlton at the MCG since 1918... then looking into it, this Friday will be the 4th time we've played them there since then (1981, 1986, and 2017 were the 3)

Interesting on the surface, but early days it was always at Princes Park or Lake Oval, then later SCG and Docklands.

Thanks for checking that out, I assumed it was coming off a very low base. What about the Bloodbath GF, wasn't that at the G?

Speaking of finals v Carlton, this is our third final against them this century, probably making us their most frequent opponent (coming off a very low base).

2013 SF: can't even remember this, Sydney won by 24
2010 EF: I vividly remember this won by us on the death with an assist from Trent Dennis-Lane. Sydney by 5

Much more useful stat. Syd vs Carlton finals 2000-2022: Sydney 2, Carlton 0