Preview Finals Week 1 - Carlton v Sydney Swans - A Preview Driven By AI

[BasicSwan]

Quickly addressing the pink elephant in the room is the media attention placed on Carlton for the past two weeks which I feel like (but hopefully won't) affect how the umpires make their decisions for 50-50 calls; similar to a certain game we all like to forget. A lot has been made by the media also about the support Carlton will get at the MCG but they forget we get pretty good support from the old South Melbourne supporters too (probably won't have the same degree of support but it is there).

Now those are things we can't control but what we can control is the general play. The game against Melbourne was good preparation of what to expect from Carlton in terms of the contested game; particularly since Carlton's clearance game has been superior to Melbourne's in the past 6 - 7 weeks. The combination of Mills, Rowbottom, Hickey and possibly McLean or whoever plays as second ruck will be important in negating Carlton's clearance game and even bettering them. If it does rain as forecast then our smaller and speeder players will be crucial for midfield dominance such as Gulden, Campbell, Stephens and McInerney (if his back).

 

[SGBeach]

Quickly addressing the pink elephant in the room is the media attention placed on Carlton for the past two weeks which I feel like (but hopefully won't) affect how the umpires make their decisions for 50-50 calls; similar to a certain game we all like to forget. A lot has been made by the media also about the support Carlton will get at the MCG but they forget we get pretty good support from the old South Melbourne supporters too (probably won't have the same degree of support but it is there).

Now those are things we can't control but what we can control is the general play. The game against Melbourne was good preparation of what to expect from Carlton in terms of the contested game; particularly since Carlton's clearance game has been superior to Melbourne's in the past 6 - 7 weeks. The combination of Mills, Rowbottom, Hickey and possibly McLean or whoever plays as second ruck will be important in negating Carlton's clearance game and even bettering them. If it does rain as forecast then our smaller and speeder players will be crucial for midfield dominance such as Gulden, Campbell, Stephens and McInerney (if his back).

In horses interview on 360 last night, he recognised that Carlton supporters will be in big numbers and very vocal.. But what we can control is how we respond to that. Horse sounded excited about playing in front of a big and vocal opposition crowd, he spoke as if it was a positive.. Imagine if our players get a lift (as big as, or maybe even bigger) from the crowd on friday night!
Total respect for Horse for the way way he approaches these type of situations.
Another example is when Gulden or Warner were tagged.. Horses response to that in the post game presser was "Good, they've got to learn and they'll be better for it". Horse spoke as if it was a positive and had a big smile on his face.. Compare that to other coaches.. They complain!

 

[ErrolisGoldun]

Quickly addressing the pink elephant in the room is the media attention placed on Carlton for the past two weeks which I feel like (but hopefully won't) affect how the umpires make their decisions for 50-50 calls; similar to a certain game we all like to forget. A lot has been made by the media also about the support Carlton will get at the MCG but they forget we get pretty good support from the old South Melbourne supporters too (probably won't have the same degree of support but it is there).

Now those are things we can't control but what we can control is the general play. The game against Melbourne was good preparation of what to expect from Carlton in terms of the contested game; particularly since Carlton's clearance game has been superior to Melbourne's in the past 6 - 7 weeks. The combination of Mills, Rowbottom, Hickey and possibly McLean or whoever plays as second ruck will be important in negating Carlton's clearance game and even bettering them. If it does rain as forecast then our smaller and speeder players will be crucial for midfield dominance such as Gulden, Campbell, Stephens and McInerney (if his back).

There is always a media darling each finals series and this year it is Carlton.

I am hopeful that the best umpires will be umpiring these 4 games and we get a fair crack of the whip.

It is concerning though the wave of support Carlton are generating. I expect they will have the majority of support, 66-33% or thereabouts, but you are right there will be a huge contingent of Swans at the game too.

It was wet v Adelaide and for the 1st half it was the best we have played all season, so on this limited sample size, I am all good we will be playing in the wet v Carlton, also negates their tall timber forward.

 

[bedford]

In horses interview on 360 last night, he recognised that Carlton supporters will be in big numbers and very vocal.. But what we can control is how we respond to that. Horse sounded excited about playing in front of a big and vocal opposition crowd, he spoke as if it was a positive.. Imagine if our players get a lift (as big as, or maybe even bigger) from the crowd on friday night!
Total respect for Horse for the way way he approaches these type of situations.
Another example is when Gulden or Warner were tagged.. Horses response to that in the post game presser was "Good, they've got to learn and they'll be better for it". Horse spoke as if it was a positive and had a big smile on his face.. Compare that to other coaches.. They complain!

No they don't as a whole !

 

[Adnico26Parker]

Latest on Paps and Justin:


TOM PAPLEY

Tom is recovering well from the hamstring tightness he experienced against Adelaide. He trained solidly over the weekend and is expected to be available this weekend.

JUSTIN McINERNEY

Justin has now completed a month of rehabilitation from a calf strain and has returned to full training. He will be a test to play Carlton.

 

[SGBeach]

No they don't as a whole !

maybe not as a whole.. but Horse turns it into a positive and enjoys the challenge.
Goodwin complaining.. "Clearly Finn McGuiness doesn't want the ball"

 

[caesar88]

Hard to see us winning this week or any week after without big games from Mills, Rowbottom or Parker.

 

[Grand Uncle Horace]

Hard to see us winning this week or any week after without big games from Mills, Rowbottom or Parker.

Hopefully. Parker and Mills are fitter. Mills was pretty damned good v Melbourne and must back it up. Agree that Parker needs a good game.

On form, the best we can hope from Rowey is a brave serviceable game. The weather conditions may suit a brave battling player.

 

[ErrolisGoldun]

Hard to see us winning this week or any week after without big games from Mills, Rowbottom or Parker.

And big Hickey, needs to wind back the clock, hopefully extra rest has helped.

Our midfield needs to stand up and at least break even with Carlton.

If they don’t win at stoppages they will struggle to score.

 

[Bloods86]

Hard to see us winning this week or any week after without big games from Mills, Rowbottom or Parker.

We were without Mills and Rowy had 1 clearance (though 12 tackles), earlier this season against the Blues. Melican, Francis and Fox as KPDs. Heeney was big in the middle. Buddy goalless.

They had some big injury issues, but this week is definitely winnable.

Just need to remind Carlton what they're capable of early i.e. being Carlton of the last couple of decades.

 

[SGBeach]

Hard to see us winning this week or any week after without big games from Mills, Rowbottom or Parker.

there's another 19 players.. to single out those three is perplexing..?
Do you still think we should trade Rowbottom?
Do you still think "our midfield is going nowhere as long as Parker is in it" ?

I would consider T McCartin as hugely important, Rampe also. Florent and Blakey run off half back. Gulden and Campbell on the wings. Warners attack from the contest. Papley, Heeney up forward.. What about our tall forwards. etc etc
Everyone has to stand up

 

[caesar88]

We were without Mills and Rowy had 1 clearance (though 12 tackles), earlier this season against the Blues. Melican, Francis and Fox as KPDs. Heeney was big in the middle. Buddy goalless.

They had some big injury issues, but this week is definitely winnable.

Just need to remind Carlton what they're capable of early i.e. being Carlton of the last couple of decades.

David King generally does my head in with his stats obsession but he made an interesting point the other day. Contested possession rate goes up an average of 20% from home & away matches to finals games. This will obviously lend itself to the Parkers, Mills and Rowbottoms of the world more so than the Guldens, Papleys and Warners.

But even taking away the finals aspect of it, that collective haven't really gotten off the canvas much this year and we've been a middle of the road side. So even if it weren't a final, we clearly need more from them if we want to be better.

 

[LukeParkerno1]

David King generally does my head in with his stats obsession but he made an interesting point the other day. Contested possession rate goes up an average of 20% from home & away matches to finals games. This will obviously lend itself to the Parkers, Mills and Rowbottoms of the world.

But even taking away the finals aspect of it, that collective haven't really gotten off the canvas much this year and we've been a middle of the road side. So even if it weren't a final, we clearly need more from them if we want to be better.

Mills and Parker look like they really needed a rest after the Melbourne game in a weird way that post season bye could be our best friend. Both those two bodies looked so banged up in that game, the eye test would tell you that. Those two will be crucial in a match where Cripps is in the middle feeding their Carlton mids, if we let Cripps be dominant not sure really how we are winning.

 

[wilsonmatic]

Anyone putting Heeney on Cripps again or leaving him up forward? I hope he starts on Cripps.

 

[Millky95]

Anyone putting Heeney on Cripps again or leaving him up forward? I hope he starts on Cripps.

Leave him forward

 

[LukeParkerno1]

Anyone putting Heeney on Cripps again or leaving him up forward? I hope he starts on Cripps.

Forward. Put Parker on Cripps or Rowy

 

[ErrolisGoldun]

Anyone putting Heeney on Cripps again or leaving him up forward? I hope he starts on Cripps.

Mills will go to Cripps, I think horse referenced missing Mills as the reason they put Heeney on Cripps. Worth noting Cripps was struggling with an ankle that game too.

We need Heeney forward, they don’t have a match up for him, I think he will play a blinder and will be our point of difference.

 

[caesar88]

A fit Cripps & Hewett makes them a lot more like the midfield that gave ours a bath last year. So not sure the game earlier this year has much bearing.

 

[S120]

I'm fairly pessimistic about our chances given how badly we've been getting crushed in contested ball consistently and given that's Carlton's strength. On a wet night in a finals game where the intensity will be fierce, it doesn't fill me with confidence that we'll be able to hold up well enough with the barrage of I50's that I expect Carlton will have. Particularly given the wet ground will hamper our ability to transition the ball from defence which has been our real strength in the back half of the year.

I'll hold out a faint hope but nothing considerable tbh. We'd need massive showings from Mills on Cripps, McCartin on Curnow, and both of Papley and Heeney in the front half as well as our most relied upon player now, Errol, to dominate.

 

[LukeParkerno1]

Least if it’s wet Curnow shouldn’t kick a bag

 

[ErrolisGoldun]

I'm fairly pessimistic about our chances given how badly we've been getting crushed in contested ball consistently and given that's Carlton's strength. On a wet night in a finals game where the intensity will be fierce, it doesn't fill me with confidence that we'll be able to hold up well enough with the barrage of I50's that I expect Carlton will have. Particularly given the wet ground will hamper our ability to transition the ball from defence which has been our real strength in the back half of the year.

I'll hold out a faint hope but nothing considerable tbh. We'd need massive showings from Mills on Cripps, McCartin on Curnow, and both of Papley and Heeney in the front half as well as our most relied upon player now, Errol, to dominate.

I tend to agree however these are the types of games we lift for. When it’s all stacked against us.

We actually destroyed Adelaide in the wet too (1st half), which is good recent form.

They will struggle to score if we stop them winning clean clearances. They have no other way to score.

We will take a lot of learnings from Tigers loss at MCG too, when we failed to adapt to wet conditions.

Will be harder for Curnow to clunk marks.

 

[ErrolisGoldun]

Whoever gets Saad will be key too, stopping his run and carry will keep the ball locked in our 50.

I assume Wicks depending on how defensive wants to go with Clamps. Hayward most likely on McGovern too.

 

[MF]

Another example is when Gulden or Warner were tagged.. Horses response to that in the post game presser was "Good, they've got to learn and they'll be better for it". Horse spoke as if it was a positive and had a big smile on his face.. Compare that to other coaches.. They complain!

Like Goodwin who threw a little tanty

 

[MF]

I'm fairly pessimistic about our chances given how badly we've been getting crushed in contested ball consistently and given that's Carlton's strength. On a wet night in a finals game where the intensity will be fierce, it doesn't fill me with confidence that we'll be able to hold up well enough with the barrage of I50's that I expect Carlton will have. Particularly given the wet ground will hamper our ability to transition the ball from defence which has been our real strength in the back half of the year.

I'll hold out a faint hope but nothing considerable tbh. We'd need massive showings from Mills on Cripps, McCartin on Curnow, and both of Papley and Heeney in the front half as well as our most relied upon player now, Errol, to dominate.

Same. I think we're somewhere around a 30-40% chance here.

These games are the most fun to win though.

 

[SGBeach]

A fit Cripps & Hewett makes them a lot more like the midfield that gave ours a bath last year. So not sure the game earlier this year has much bearing.

Both Cripps and Hewett were fit and played in round 11 when we beat them by more than 4 goals. Carltons line up will be pretty similar to round 11.. but, We get back T McCartin, Rampe, Mills, McDonald, Amartey who were all injured that game.
But I agree, what happened in a game 3.5 months ago won't have much bearing on this game - especially since the Swans have a lot of critical players back from injury (including 2 captains and 3 KPPs).
If the game in round 11 has not much bearing, then the game last year has Zero bearing