Preview Finals Week 1 - Carlton v Sydney Swans - A Preview Driven By AI

[Millky95]

A fit Cripps & Hewett makes them a lot more like the midfield that gave ours a bath last year. So not sure the game earlier this year has much bearing.

We are going to get thumped. And if it is close fairytale umpiring will see it through

That's my guess

 

[caesar88]

We are going to get thumped. And if it is close fairytale umpiring will see it through

That's my guess

Logic would suggest so yes but if our inside core fires then we win IMO.

 

[LukeParkerno1]

Logic would suggest so yes but if our inside core fires then we win IMO.

Only if we get the other part right and that's kicking straight. Whether we deserved it or not, we kicked ourselves out of the game against Melbourne, we should have been 25 plus points ahead at halftime instead every player was trying to have the worst miss of the day, with Wicks taking the cake from 15 out in front.

 

[ErrolisGoldun]

Both Cripps and Hewett were fit and played in round 11 when we beat them by more than 4 goals. Carltons line up will be pretty similar to round 11.. but, We get back T McCartin, Rampe, Mills, McDonald, Amartey who were all injured that game.
But I agree, what happened in a game 3.5 months ago won't have much bearing on this game - especially since the Swans have a lot of critical players back from injury (including 2 captains and 3 KPPs).
If the game in round 11 has not much bearing, then the game last year has Zero bearing

Hewett got knocked out early in 2nd and Cripps was badly hampered by an ankle injury.

Game last year has no bearing, was on a fast dry track too!

Blues are better when speed is on the game, hence why I am happy for the rain and wet weather to come on this week.

 

[LukeParkerno1]

Hewett got knocked out early in 2nd and Cripps was badly hampered by an ankle injury.

Game last year has no bearing, was on a fast dry track too!

Blues are better when speed is on the game, hence why I am happy for the rain and wet weather to come on this week.

Wet weather it becomes more of a lottery which helps us, only having to lets say get 70-80 points is easier than getting 100+ and having Curnow clunking marks everywhere. Also I may get a laugh with McKay trying to kick a goal in the wet!

 

[ErrolisGoldun]

Wet weather it becomes more of a lottery which helps us, only having to lets say get 70-80 points is easier than getting 100+ and having Curnow clunking marks everywhere. Also I may get a laugh with McKay trying to kick a goal in the wet!

Also think we have the better skills which helps in tougher conditions.

Watching McKay in the wet will be like watching Richo play international rules

 

[Millky95]

Logic would suggest so yes but if our inside core fires then we win IMO.

Our best for 16 quarters wins us a flag and honestly, that's the most frustrating part of the season

 

[LukeParkerno1]

Also think we have the better skills which helps in tougher conditions.

Watching McKay in the wet will be like watching Richo play international rules

quite possibly but we do need a big game from Warner, he's another that's been down for a bit. Can't be just relying on Gulden

 

[sataris]

Hickey to Cripps.

 

[Millky95]

Hickey to Cripps.

Hickey is too short

 

[sataris]

Hickey is too short

Be giving up a couple of metres at least.

Vertically anyway.

 

[GoTheSwannies]

Both Cripps and Hewett were fit and played in round 11 when we beat them by more than 4 goals. Carltons line up will be pretty similar to round 11.. but, We get back T McCartin, Rampe, Mills, McDonald, Amartey who were all injured that game.
But I agree, what happened in a game 3.5 months ago won't have much bearing on this game - especially since the Swans have a lot of critical players back from injury (including 2 captains and 3 KPPs).
If the game in round 11 has not much bearing, then the game last year has Zero bearing

I think both round 11 and last years game will definitely give us some info. The sides haven't changed a whole heap since then. So between those two previous games I think we'll have some understanding as to how this match will go.

But I think most know where the game will be won or lost, trying to match their contested game, ensuring we match them in the midfield, trying to limit Cripps influence, stopping Saad's run off HB and praying Curnow doesn't have a blinder.

 

[zyzzbruh]

I'm fairly pessimistic about our chances given how badly we've been getting crushed in contested ball consistently and given that's Carlton's strength. On a wet night in a finals game where the intensity will be fierce, it doesn't fill me with confidence that we'll be able to hold up well enough with the barrage of I50's that I expect Carlton will have. Particularly given the wet ground will hamper our ability to transition the ball from defence which has been our real strength in the back half of the year.

I'll hold out a faint hope but nothing considerable tbh. We'd need massive showings from Mills on Cripps, McCartin on Curnow, and both of Papley and Heeney in the front half as well as our most relied upon player now, Errol, to dominate.

If you think our transition will be bad then can you imagine Carlton's? They look like they're playing in wet weather even under the roof of marvel when trying to transition.

Our defence has a great ability to hold up and our pressure is no 1 in the comp. We'll eat them up in the turnover game and trust that our transition will be good enough to pick them off.

If anything the wet will nullify their stoppage game. They won't be able to get clean hands on it nearly as often. It's actually the pressure game that matters more in those conditions. We'll sow this up.

 

[the hypnotoad]

I think both round 11 and last years game will definitely give us some info. The sides haven't changed a whole heap since then. So between those two previous games I think we'll have some understanding as to how this match will go.

But I think most know where the game will be won or lost, trying to match their contested game, ensuring we match them in the midfield, trying to limit Cripps influence, stopping Saad's run off HB and praying Curnow doesn't have a blinder.

i never put too much stock in previous results
we got smashed by geelong twice, total 173 points ... then should've beaten them by 6-8 goals in the draw
the swans have had a largely unsettled side all year, for one reason or another
our best will beat carlton but it's a sudden death final, i believe it's mostly a mental battle at this stage of the season
there's no way i can claim any confidence but i think we'll win ... and i have no fear of a fourth quarter collapse

 

[Adnico26Parker]

Today's presser with Horse:

 

[Bloods86]

A fit Cripps & Hewett makes them a lot more like the midfield that gave ours a bath last year. So not sure the game earlier this year has much bearing.

I'd make that case either way though. We're in better form, a better 22 (not hit by injuries anywhere near as much).

 

[caesar88]

I'd make that case either way though. We're in better form, a better 22 (not hit by injuries anywhere near as much).

I'm talking specifically about the midfield though. They have basically gained a fit Cripps and Hewett while we have basically the same midfield (whether Mills is "back" the same capacity he was so damaging in last year remains to be seen.)

 

[sataris]

You forgot the 3rd & 4th options - play an outstanding game of finals-worthy footy and then piss it away in the last quarter, or do everything right except kick straight.

I feel like I covered this with #2.

 

[bedford]

9 to 12 degrees windy and showers hopefully gone by game time

 

[monopoly19]

It’s funny how much you can forget in the course of a season - I have no memory of us playing Hickey and McAndrew together but apparently we did last time. We (potentially) get Rampe, McCartin, Mills, McDonald and Amartey into the side compared to last time (for Buddy, Francis, Melican, McAndrew, Corey Warner, maybe Clarke?). And if Stephens is the sub he’ll be much more effective than Corey. If Clarke is sub…sigh.

 

[Adnico26Parker]

‘A new chance for a new story’: Longmire’s comeback kids ready for Carlton​

Sydney coach John Longmire is determined to write a new finals story in Melbourne this Friday night against a resurgent Carlton team.

‘A new chance for a new story’: Longmire’s comeback kids ready for Carlton

Two months ago, Sydney looked in danger of missing out on finals, but the young side returned to form. On Friday they will face a motivated Carlton at the MCG.

www.smh.com.au

 

[Wolftone]

I've added it in below, I've turned it into a top 11 to accommodate Buddy (it's the middle 2 lines with the orange).

I don't think it makes a huge difference statistically. Despite being targeted a lot early on in the season, Buddy wasn't scoring significantly more from those entries. So had Buddy not played in those games, and instead we targeted McLean, Mcdonald or Amartey, we probably would have had similar output (in terms of goals scored).

So in terms of looking at where our goals are going to come from, based on the players we currently have available, leaving Buddy out didn't make a huge difference in the grand scheme of things.

Noting that, in the 8 games he scored goals, he contributed 17-20% of our goals. But once again, we would have targeted someone else if he wasn't playing and it's arguable whether it would have made us less effective or more effective, but in any case, I doubt we would have seen a dramatic difference in the goals scored if Buddy hadn't played.

View attachment 1793856

Actually Buddy scored less when targeted more.

On CPH2471 using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[ErrolisGoldun]

It’s funny how much you can forget in the course of a season - I have no memory of us playing Hickey and McAndrew together but apparently we did last time. We (potentially) get Rampe, McCartin, Mills, McDonald and Amartey into the side compared to last time (for Buddy, Francis, Melican, McAndrew, Corey Warner, maybe Clarke?). And if Stephens is the sub he’ll be much more effective than Corey. If Clarke is sub…sigh.

Stretch gave a sublime tap to Heeney or Paps that resulted in a goal, hopefully he can bull up and continue to improve through the off season / pre season. Was nice to see what a dominant ruckman looked like for a centre bounce for once!!

 

[GoTheSwannies]

Actually Buddy scored less when targeted more.

On CPH2471 using BigFooty.com mobile app

That's right, which makes it such a shame that he injured himself because I felt Buddy and the swans had finally figured out how to utilise him effectively and then he went and got injured.

We were too Buddy-centric earlier in the year and I think Buddy put too much oressure on himself to score goals that we ended up overcooking it.

It wasn't until he played more of a facilitator role that he actually came into the game more and actually managed to increase his goal scoring output while bringing others into the game.

 

[The King!]

Give us Collingwood next week thanks